MBB: NESCAC

[geronimo]

Chris Keane

[booyakasha]

As far as Amherst going undefeated, I wouldn't bet on it... in fact, I'd bet against it. I've taken the liberty of assigning probabilities (of Amherst victory) to their partially theoretical remaining schedule in order to calculate a very rudimentary likelihood of remaining undefeated through the remainder of the season, through the NESCAC tournament, and the NCAA's. Keep in mind I have been conservative in my estimation of probabilities, meaning they are more likely higher than their true values (in my opinion). I like to make that concession to demonstrate the low probability of Amherst running the table.

.95 Conn College
.98 Wesleyan (home team has big adv on second day of Nescac wknd)
.80 @ Trinity
.95 Nescac QTR (a CBB or Midd, Conn, Wes)
.85 Nescac Semi (could be Tufts)
.75 Nescac Final
BYE
.90 NCAA 2nd Rd
.80 NCAA Sectional
.70 NCAA Sectional
.55 NCAA Semi
.55 NCAA Final

The product of these probabilities yields a 6.877% chance of running the table. Possible, Yes. Probable, No.

Extending this further, dropping the remaining regular season and NESCAC tourney will give us the likelihood of winning a national championship (given Amherst will receive a first round bye, which is almost definite at this stage I'm guessing): 15.246%.

Again, Amherst may have the better shot at it than anyone else, but still the odds are stacked against them.

Just a little food for thought for everyone to think about between 'CAC weekends...

[nescac1]

Booyakasha, well done.  Your mad calculating skillz should forever silence the haters doubting the NESCAC's street cred -- you all may mock us, but when the letta openers of death are whipped out and the analysts prepare to throw down, who else would you want getting your back? 

(apologies to Herbert Kornfield)

[JeffRookie2]

formerbant,
in all seriousness, i hear hartford is pretty rough these days. it was never that way when i used to play there but i've heard it's been pretty bad the past few years. i guess the city's crime woes have been publicized a fair amount and there have been a number of violent on-campus incidents at trinity. any truth?

williamstown is obviously pretty crime free but i can't speak for amherst - walzy or other amherst posters would have to tell you about amherst...and neighboring mt. holyoke....who needs soccer, crime free areas, and amherst college when there is a "slamming" incoming freshman at a nearby all women's college. niiiiiiice.

Williams is situated between scenic Pittsfield and North Adams, areas with two of the highest crack per capita usage in the country. So you never know, nescac hoops might indeed have some serious street cred.

As for the dunk contest, I think I'm going to have to go with Jack Osbornre, becasue thinking about what Jack Osborne dunking would look like made me laugh.

[Marty Peretz]

For what it's worth, I don't think this is the best team ever assembled at Amherst. I'm not convinced they're all that much better than the 03, 05, or 06 teams. The NESCAC is so much weaker than it was that comparisons are hard to make. Amherst is definitely solid, but I don't see them winning it all this year. There are two teams I have watched closely this year: Amherst and WashU. Amherst, I would say, is 3-4 points better than WashU and WashU doesn't have a single senior who averages over 6 points a game. Point is, to go undefeated and win it all, you should be more than 3 points better than  a team that wasn't even ranked in the pre season (eggregious, but nonetheless significant for the sake of this argument). I just can't see Hopkins really willing to bang against some of the Wisconsin teams. Look what happened to Amherst in 05. A fantastic team ran into Haubin and a pair of other stud big man and fell hard to Rochester. I fear that their season could end in similar fashion this year.

Prediction for 08: Amherst vs. WashU in Salem.

[nescac hoops]

as far as scenery goes, ill take williams. amherst has a lot more going on than williamstown - concerts, restaurants, etc. it really depends on what you are looking for in a college. it's hard to find a place ANYWHERE that doesn't have bad towns within the 20 minute vicinity. williamstown is not known for it's crack and can't control neighboring towns. holyoke, springfield, easthampton are all crappy places that are near amherst- amherst is a very nice town, which is all that matters. such a rookie.
i don't know anything about amherst's south hadley neighbor - walzy might be able to shed some light on the 18 and under clubs there.

[Dr E. Spengler]

SCENERY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

good point, good point, good point

Forget dunk contest...flying contest:

a bird, a plane, superman, mike holsey

I'll take superman by a nose over holsey.  But coming in second to the man of steel is nothing to laugh at.


SON OF JOR-El KNEEL BEFORE ZOD

[walzy31]

Now I am confused by both Bates and Nescac Hoops.
Amherst has beaten Williams 6 straight times in hoops including twice THIS season. My soccer career is past tense...but clearly you would like to talk about your tennis playing in crackville so please go ahead and post about it on the UAA board.
I'll take Tony Allen in the dunk contest.
Bears +7 but can't bring myself to advise it ML.
Believe the Hype!
T. Canon says Easthampton is ten times the city Williamstown will ever be and has hotter girls.

[Hoopsaholic]

Does anyone know the last time Williams finished a season below .500? They have a tough schedule the rest of the way....

I would be curious to see how the regions stack up against each other based on record in out of region games, who has an afternoon to kill?

[whoarewebobcats]

I think a lot of the NESCAC schools' towns get a bad rap just in comparison to the school itself. Of course the schools are pristine--you're (or your parents, or scholarships, or the school itself) paying a bootload to hang out there for four years. Bates kids constantly ripped on Lewiston as being sketchy and poor and by senior year most found things they liked about it (or at least the neighboring Auburn). Now, having grown up in Maine I knew that Lewiston was kind of sketchy and had that reputation throughout the state, though that too may be unfair (one of my high school teachers once had a little soliloquy about how unfair it was that we made fun of Lewiston when it had some pretty cool stuff--it was a strange scene for Spanish class). But most Bates kids didn't know the reputation to begin with, and I think judged it on not looking as nice as the campus, or, perhaps, as nice as the suburbs that so many of us grew up in (I'm from Brunswick, which obviously has a much better reputation, a prettier Main(e) St., etc. etc.). Obviously this whole conversation began as a joke about the mean streets of so many of the NESCAC towns, and I've likely taken it down an avenue (please note my awesome pun) that we didn't plan, but it's a subject that I think doesn't get enough attention among the general NESCAC populace. There's a reason that "town-gown relations" frequently arise as problems with NESCAC schools, and to me a lot of that stems with the students' ignorance and disrespect of their surrounding areas. But, the people of these towns often hold equally biased and unfair views about the students as well. Perhaps it's one of those vicious cycle things.

On a lighter note, while Brunswick is lovely and Lewiston has its moments, Waterville truly is dreadful. It is a depressing, depressing place.

[The Historian]

I also heard that a lot of town people set illegal picks, which only adds to their bad reputation.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

But, the people of these towns often hold equally biased and unfair views about the students as well.

Yeah, but they're usually right.  In my experience schools are out for their own interests and usually that means doing enough community work to keep people from complaining.  I don't think its necessarily wrong (or wrong at all), it's just not as sincere as we give them credit for.

[Friar T]

Following up on your comments WhoAreWe... I used to work summers in the prettier part of Maine at one of their more plush camps and I always found the precamp seminar on the gang violence in Waterville to be especially entertaining...

Not to beat a dead horse, but as I have been checking scores over the past few weeks I've seen lots of the other New England schools basically trading losses with each other. A beats B, who beat C, who beats A. You get what I'm saying? Anyways this led me to look at NE as a whole just to see how bad the region is based purely on the numbers. Just 30 of the 72 teams in the region have winning records with eight of them coming from the NESCAC. This leads me to the question, why is it that we challenge Amherst's scheduling (myself included) when no one in the region is able to schedule many tough games at all. A quick comparison of the top tier of the NESCAC's in-region games.

Amherst plays 12 teams with +.500 records compared with 9 without, hampered by the fact that they play Williams and Wesleyan twice, and that they drew Springfield in the PVC instead of Westfield St.

Tufts plays 14 above, 8 below

Bates plays 12 above, 9 below, helped by playing Bowdoin and Colby twice.

Trinity plays 13 above, 7 below helped by playing four games out of region.

Why aren't we knocking everyone? All of our schedules are helped by the NESCAC, and hurt by the fact that we all play in a bad region. Granted, some of Amherst's under .500 teams are way below, but in a region this bad does it really matter?

Don't even get me started on the teams outside the NESCAC. Keene St. plays just 8 games against teams over .500, 6 of which are in-conference (3 teams twice), RIC just 10 games with the same in-conference scam as Keene.

Any thoughts?

[whoarewebobcats]

great post, Friar. I touched on this a bit a while back when it first came up, but only anecdotally. I think you're dead on.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

The questions about schedule are not about teams above .500 versus teams below.  You'll find that across the country.  The questions (and even though I'm a NE guy all the way, are totally valid) are of those teams that have a +.500 record.

Teams like Lasell and Elms and Nichols and Maine Maritime (all of them at .600 and above) just do not compare with teams like Mt St Joseph, Carroll, Grinnell or even Milwaukee Engineering (similar records in the Midwest Region).

We all know those NE teams are inferior.  It's just the nature of the thing.

That's why everyone wants the NESCAC to do a double round robin.  People are pretty confident in the level of play within the conference when there are few if any non-conference region teams the schools can play with any national credibility.  More games against Bates, Amherst, Trinity, Tufts, etc make the schools record more respectable.

However, the current system doesn't compare schools across the nation, so it's better for all the NESCAC teams to keep things the way they are.  Who cares if they get to #1 in the poll, if they get home games right through to the final four?  The system is so biased, but it's biased in your favor, so there's really no reason to complain too much.


[Edit - You can look, but you'll only find two, maybe three poor teams above .600 in the Midwest region, when there are at least a dozen in the NE.  Numbers and ratios don't take care of all of those discrepancies.]