MBB: NESCAC

whoarewebobcats · February 16, 2007, 04:50:37 PM

Here's the problem with the "do or die" argument: Bates has had a bunch of games that have been "must-wins." Now, of course, this is the most must-winnish of all, because it will be Zak and Rob (and Damon, Sam, and J-Lat)'s last game as Bobcats. I believe Zak and Rob will play well, barring foul trouble to Rob. I believe Chris Wilson will play well. I believe Wholey will shoot 3-13 and play 37 minutes (honestly, Wholey is walking a dangerous line toward being an Adam Morrison (as a pro, not a collegiate) kind of player with lousy production over extensive minutes), Halloran will go 1-8 from beyond the arc, and Taylor and McGinn will play far more minutes than they would on most NESCAC teams. I'm not saying Bates isn't mentally tough necessarily, and I believe that some of them are (Zak and Rob certainly, and absolutely Coach Reilly) and I believe they will be prepared. I just don't think they are remotely good enough, based on what I've seen this year (I saw Amherst-Bates I, and it was in Lewiston), I don't see them even staying with Amherst. And I didn't see a weakness from the Jeffs that Bates could expose (they played flawlessly in the first game). I might give Bates a reasonable chance at home, but away I really don't believe they can do it, and the fact that people are saying they will stay close the same year when they lost to Conn. Coll. on the road is very surprising. Maybe the "Amherst yahoos" are trying to seem reasonable and objective! Guys, this is not a set-up for a let-down game, or anything remotely like it. Amherst will control if not the entire game, at least the second half. It won't be under double-digits with 10 minutes left.

mrmike88 · February 16, 2007, 05:02:12 PM

Whoweare, certainly I haven't followed Bates as closely as you have this year, but I'm basing my assumption of a close game simply on the performances of Ray and Stockwell. Now I may be wrong, but it seems to me that Bates has lost games recently because Ray and Stockwell were the only two to make a mark on the scoreboard. And yes, if this happens tomorrow, Bates isn't going to win. But to know that it could be their final game, and to know just how good those two have been over their four years, makes me think that out of sheer effort from those two Bates will hang tight. I can't see Ray and Stockwell rolling over in their final game. If they don't get help from somewhere else, well they'll lose. But they'll do whatever they can to will their team to victory. I have too much respect for those two to say that Amherst will run away with it.

pinna44 · February 17, 2007, 01:19:33 PM

As a former 'Cat, the past few years have been torture... never able to get over the hump. If they went 7-2 in NESCAC, losing to Trinity and Amherst in close games, I may be optimistic. Reality is, this is a weaker team than they've brought to the tourney in some time. I don't see how they avoid the early 2nd half burst that Amherst is known for. Tufts may be in Amherst's head, but Bates sure isn't. I agree, Bates down by 5-8 after the 1st half. If they are even with 10 minutes left they lose a close one. If they are down 15 at that mark (which I think they will be), they lose by 22. Heart can make up 5 points, it can't make up 22...

formerbant10 · February 17, 2007, 01:58:11 PM

Quick predictions....

Amherst by 10+ over Bates....Stockwell has a big game inside keeping it close till the Jeffs depth wears them down.

Trinity by 10 over Bowdoin....Revenge game for the Bants who are playing pretty well right now.

Tufts by 5 over Williams....Very good game, Shepherd hits some big FT's to ice the game.

Colby by <5 over Midd....Farrell and Cohen with huge games, Farrell money from the line down the stretch and Treyball gets a few big stops to keep the Panthers out of reach.

nescac1 · February 17, 2007, 04:00:03 PM

Congrats to the Ephs. Looked very sharp on both offense and defense. Williams won 84-72, played very well and controlled the whole game from mid way through the first half on. The aggressive zone defense really frustrated Tufts who had no good outside looks all day and couldn't take advantage inside enough to compensate. (Thanks to Jumbocast for broadcasting the game, by the way, and nice work eclinchy).

Shalvoy was huge and penetrated at will all game (Shepherd clearly struggling with injury was exploited). Schultz also had a very strong game, hitting lots of timely shots. His style reminds me a little bit of Bedford in that he is crafty, physical, and just knows how to play and in particular finish plays. Nice medium range game which is something the Ephs don't have a lot of. Rose was pretty quiet as Tufts worked hard to deny him any good looks, but that left Snyder and Schultz open and both capitalized. Finally, Weisbrot was the hero of the day for the Ephs, playing great defense and igniting the Ephs in the key run with a series of three blocks and three offensive rebounds that demoralized Tufts. Geoghegan will be very good but has to watch the cheap fouls which limit his court time.

As for Tufts, kind of a let down of a season but they were never able to find an inside presence to replace Martin it seems like, just no post presence at all. Today, Pierce and O'Keefe played very well but no one else did much on offense or defense. With Kumf and Fitzgerald graduating, Tufts will be even smaller next year. They have one huge guy but he doesn't seem like he is a prime time guy who will have much of an impact. Tufts will have to really run and gun to do much damage next year, although Weitzen/Pierce/O'Keefe can score on anyone when they get it going. Shepherd is a big loss as well as he is a heady player.

walzy31 · February 17, 2007, 05:25:06 PM

Amh
Trin
Williams
Colby

Next weekend at the Amherst Invitational.

Recap from today in LeFrak:

Ugly win for Amherst but they'll take it. Olson and Wheeler stood out. Big threes by both of them throughout the game. But Zak Ray was the most impressive. He plays with an incredible fire and hit tough shot after tough shot. Stockwell scored some buckets in streaks, but got in foul trouble (someone mentioned that that would be a major probelm for Bates.)
With 15:20 left in the 2nd half, Amherst completed the rare 8 point possession. Nope, there wasn't an 8 point power up spot like in NBA Jam TE, but Wheeler hit a three and there was an off the ball foul on the shot. Then Wheeler hit another three, Reilly got T'd up, and Olson hit both FTs. Amherst went from trailing by 4 to leading by 4, and never trailed again.
Wholey had an open three from the corner with 1:11 left that toilet bowled in and out when Bates was down three. Then, after a Hopkins O Board, Olson hit a three to push it to 6 with under a minute left.

mrmike88 · February 17, 2007, 05:30:05 PM

It was the 8-point swing Walzy noted and two early foul calls that did in Bates today.

Stockwell had 13 at the half. Amherst had no answer for him down low and on the boards. He was scoring seemingly at will. With a few minutes to go in the first, he picked up his second foul. But what really turned the game around was the first 1:30 of the second half, when he picked up fouls three and four. He sat for the next 8 minutes, and then was a non-factor for the rest of the game with his foul trouble.

That 8-point sequence demoralized Bates. It took them a few minutes to really get back into the flow of the game. I give them (especially Ray) credit for getting a 9-point lead back down to 3, but in the end it wasn't enough.

Another key to the second half resurgence by the Lord Jeffs was a Bates defensive switch. With Stockwell on the bench with four fouls, coach Reilly decided to switch Ray off Olson to protect his other scorer. Once Wilson/Lattimer/etc. took Olson on D, he exploded for 17 second-half points.

whoarewebobcats · February 17, 2007, 05:41:31 PM

Well, congrats to the Bobcats on not rolling over; I'm impressed with what I read and the box score (Zak: 21, 7, 6, 3 stls, 6-11, 3-7 from three). Zak should be first team all-NESCAC, and that's all that needs to be said about him. The 8-point swing sounds crazy...I don't know that I've ever seen anything remotely like that...I can't even think of a time I've seen an off-the-ball foul on a made shot that the offensive team kept the ball. Strange. Surprised Reilly lost his cool like that...very unlike him. But, kudos to the Cats for playing better than I gave them credit for. And congrats to the better team for pulling out the win.

Mostly, congrats to Zak and Rob in particular for outstanding careers. Rob may have put up the numbers (4th all time scorer, by my records he went over 1,500 points with the 16 he scored today) but Zak deserves all the credit in the world for the way he has led the team over the last three years (and arguably his first as well). He's my favorite player to watch ever at any level, and I'll miss seeing him strap the team on his back through tough games. Congrats also to Damon, Sam, and J-Lat for their progressions into important parts of the team...I don't even want to think about what next year's team will look like without all those guys. Reilly has his work cut out for him as a recruiter.

formerbant10 · February 17, 2007, 05:50:40 PM

Whoarewe,

I've seen that type of play happen before. For it to happen, usually the shooter has to be in his motion or already released the ball while the foul occurs elsewhere. Not the strangest play that could happen, but it's always a momentum swinger.

whoarewebobcats · February 17, 2007, 05:53:05 PM

Definitely sounds like it, especially if it irritated Reilly enough to get him T'd up (I really can't get over that). What a weird circumstance all in all.

formerbant10 · February 17, 2007, 06:02:47 PM

Extremely weird circumstance. He must have really gone off for the officials to T him up in a playoff game.

mrmike88 · February 17, 2007, 06:07:23 PM

Reilly called a timeout following the second Wheeler make, and then went out on to the court to really let the ref have it. In fairness to him, however, it seemed like the officials had a fairly short leash. Reilly didn't get a chance to say very much before being T'ed up. Earlier in the game the refs threw out an Amherst student who had apparently told one of them what he thought of a call...

formerbant10 · February 17, 2007, 06:09:55 PM

Quote from: formerbant10 on February 17, 2007, 01:58:11 PM
Quick predictions....

Amherst by 10+ over Bates....Stockwell has a big game inside keeping it close till the Jeffs depth wears them down.

Trinity by 10 over Bowdoin....Revenge game for the Bants who are playing pretty well right now.

Tufts by 5 over Williams....Very good game, Shepherd hits some big FT's to ice the game.

Colby by <5 over Midd....Farrell and Cohen with huge games, Farrell money from the line down the stretch and Treyball gets a few big stops to keep the Panthers out of reach.

Clearly I'm not Walzy...but I did nail the Trinity game. Colby wins in OT led by Farrell and Cohen (shocking...I know). Amherst gets the W, but a closer game than I expected. Zak Ray once again playing a great game in the playoffs. Tufts didn't shoot as well as they needed to.

Sets up a nice doubleheader next weekend. Excited to see Treyball play again.

Old Guy · February 17, 2007, 07:20:06 PM

Formerbant nailed the Middlebury-Colby game. Good game, great atmosphere. Large noisy crowd. Biggest and best I've seen for hoops here in this NESCAC hockey/ski capitol (in 30 years). I have watched (and played in) a lot of games in that gym when you could hear a pin drop, so just the setting and context was great. Wish we had won; almost did. Too bad they play 40 minutes and not 39. Midd was up 5 with 1:24 left, but Cohen took over.

Colby got out fast, (12-2) but Middlebury charged back to lead by 3 at the half. Harris was unconscious for a stretch, bringing Middlebury back. He can really shoot the ball, and has gotten much better at getting open and creating a shot. He can fake the three and shoot a pullup off the dribble. He's a good one.

Middlebury was up 14 in the second half. Farrell had been bottled up by Edwards (6'3" rangy and quick), and Cohen was working for everything he got as Midd rotated Smith, Walsh, and Marcoux on him. But Farrell was too good to contain for the whole game and hit some bombs down the stretch, and Cohen took over on the left block. We fouled and he hit all his foul shots in the second half.

Colby got out to a quick six-point lead in the OT and we had to foul early. Colby was deadly from the line - hit 10 in a row at one point (that's how they got 19 in an OT).

So we're bummed here in snowbound VT. It would have been nice to make a hoop statement in the NESCAC tourney (as we did in baseball last spring, also unlikely)) But the long view is that we had a good season, became a player in NESCAC (last year we were 10-2 heading into league play; 2-10 after that) and that feels good. Maybe we're where Bates was 5-6 years ago, making the transition, getting over the hump. I hope so. Next year, we should be pretty good again, and no one will say "who'll they beat?"
(sorry. Walzy).

Colby's a likeable team. Whitmore has mellowed, hard to hate now. Farrell and Cohen are wonderful players at this level, really play hard, long minutes, and keep their mouths shut (important to me - I'm old school). Colby's supporting cast were adequate today - but it's the Nick and Drew show, and they come to play.

Incidently, if I had first pick in a game for my first-born among the players I saw this year in the Midd gym, I'm taking Rose.

walzy31 · February 17, 2007, 07:31:47 PM

Old Guy,

Midd keeps making me look bad. First I pick them to finish dead last in the conference and they host the 4-5 game. Then I pick them as 5 pt favorites in today's game and they lose (3 out of 4 favorites didn't cover, and 2 outright lost). Lesson for the kids: gambling is bad.