MBB: NESCAC

[Mr. Ypsi]

I don't really care....#1 in the end is what counts and I am sure it will just motivate the Jeffs....but near "toss ups" should go to the defending champs. Given past history, I can't say I am surprised.

I will be in Amherst this weekend to celebrate the unfurling of the championship banner and to put that behind us and focus on proving the naysayers wrong again.
dominated '06.....

Wow!  To be ranked ahead of nearly 400 teams, it must take an incredible persecution complex to make statements like that!

You make it sound like Caltech was the team ranked ahead of you!

[JeffRookie2]

#2 is not exactly chopped liver!

And #1 Wash U was beaten by Amherst by how many in the Final Four?  They lost even less to graduation than Amherst.  Those two were almost certainly going to be ranked 1 and 2, and which order was nearly a toss-up.

Wash U and Amherst did not play each other at last year's final four, but Amherst solidly dismantled a Virginia Wesleyan team that beat the Bears in the semifinals.

[nescac1]

Well, if you look on paper, and most people outside the northeast don't have an intimate knowledge of the Amherst program, they will see 3 starters graduating, including two (McLaughlin was also a key guy for them down the stretch last year) key players, plus one solid reserve who was a defensive stopper.  Wash U. loses basically nothing .... only one senior, and he is replaced by an even better player who went down mid-season with injury.  Wash U. also had a much tougher road to the final four than Amherst did, beating STevens Point among others.    Wash U. was a very young team last year, unlike Amherst, which was a veteran bunch.  Now of course, Amherst has great guys like Goldsmith, Coulibaly, Wheeler, etc. waiting in the wings, but the average midwest voter won't know anything about the guys who didn't get much run last year (except maybe Coulibaly who was featured on this site).  So it is understandable why Wash U. is no. 1 going into the season.   I would put Amherst there myself, but it really could go either way.

The rest of the New England teams look about right ... I would put Brandeis a little higher (at the very least switch them with Rochester, as I think most UAA observers would do), and maybe switch RIC and Keene if Keene did indeed lose Anderson and in light of a few transfers RIC brings in, but I'd say the rest of the rankings look pretty legit.  WPI and Trinity probably both belong in that 25-35 netherworld to start the season given the key perimeter players each lost. 

[Friar T]

Amherst took a MUCH more significant hit than WashU! There's no replacement for experience and leadership and the Jeffs' class of '07 was loaded with both. Wheeler, McLaughlin, O'Shea and Salerno were winners, plain and simple. Taking these four out of the equation will change the climate drastically in the 'Herst. Anyone who says that Amherst didn't lose much, obviously never saw this group play, or didn't pay much attention.

I think this definitely justifies putting WashU ahead of the Jeffs, but I also think it's incredibly dangerous for the rest of D3 as it gives Amherst something to prove. I'm sure that Olson and Co. are rabid to show the rest of the country that they can be every bit as good of leaders as those that preceded them, and will do so in spades.

It's good to hear that some of the other 'CAC schools are reloading a bit. I don't see any surprises coming this year, but I think that Midd. may have the best shot at climbing the ladder, returning their top players.

Stay off Walzy's jock... can't wait for d3walzy.com.
Over/Under on hits in the first week: million

[met_fan]

I'm no Amherst fan, but there really shouldn't be any huge argument over who is one or two between Amherst and Washington......it's a toss up, and there is no definitive argument that puts one above the other.  It will actually be nice to see a couple upstate NY teams  possibly getting back in the mix this year for top 25 arguments.  Any time I can realistically root for teams from the NY/NE region I'm happy.  I know that Williams should be pretty good this year, but do they have enough to carry them a long way or is it just more of hoping for a nice run lin the NESCAC tourny like last year?

PS: Hamilton needs to rejoin NESACAC for BB, like they have for most other sports.

[nescac1]

Nescac hoops, Amherst has the same policy.  And of course you still have to qualify for financial aid, so it isn't the equivalent of an athletic scholarship. 

[nescac hoops]

somehow i managed to delete my post (?). anyways nescac 1, i was under the impression only princeton had this "no loan policy". well either way, i think it's pretty cool that williams has it now too and i'm sure will draw students to the school that otherwise couldn't afford it and who perhaps chose other schools over williams in the past in favor of cheaper institutions or places where they could receive full academic or athletic scholarships.

[Pat Coleman]

Among the pieces of information the voters see are not only starters returning (for Amherst, 2; for Wash U, 4) but players returning who averaged 15-plus minutes per game last year (for Amherst, 5; for Wash U, 6), percentage of points from last season returning (for Amherst 63.6%, for Wash U, 87%) as well as those percentages for rebounds, assists, etc. We know who is gone from each team, as well as injured/missing players returning (you know about Coulibaly and Wash U has a significant player coming back after missing most of last season with injury as well).

If you look at the voting totals, Wash U 612, Amherst 17 points behind, UW-Stevens Point 26 points behind Amherst and Guilford 93 points further back, there are really only two or three teams that voters had any consensus on. This is a pretty close vote.

If you look at the distance between No. 1 and No. 2 in recent years, it's usually far greater than 17 points. Looking forward to a great season.

[fpc85]

pat, great info. it provides clarity.

[Pat Coleman]

Thanks. Obviously there is no perfect way to do a preseason poll but we ask for a lot of info from a lot of schools in order to try to make the decisions a little easier and make the poll based on some facts rather than program reputation.

[Rick Vaughn]

When I made that first post I forgot that McLaughlin was also a senior and was really only counting Wheeler as a loss to graduation.  I know all four seniors were winners and that O'Shea technically started, but Amherst will miss McLaughlin's defense the most this year. 

I can't wait to watch some of the individual match ups for Williams/Amherst this year.  Shalvoy vs. Olson and Hopkins vs. Geohegan in particular. 

[The Historian]

I know this is a basketball forum, not football.  But I wanted to share the news that ESPN College Gameday will be at the Amherst-Williams football game this Saturday.

Watch my karma drop for posting off subject...

[Marty Peretz]

As perhaps the lone person in the country to be intimately familiar with both Amherst and Wash.U. (and I don't say that with any intent of sounding like a total prick), I can attest that these two teams are very close and that the number 1 team is pretty meaningless at this point.

To make the argument for Amherst, I would say that O'Shea wasn't really a starter, as Hopkins got MUCH more run down the stretch and that it's really like losing two starters and not three. Also, I'd note that Coudibalay (spelling??) may be the second most talented player on that team and if he comes back healthy, that'd be scary. Losing Wheeler and Mclaughlin hurt, but Hixon is known for keeping his young guys on the bench no matter how good they are. A source at Amherst once told me that were it not for Corrigan getting hurt, Olsen would have seen hardly any time his freshman year. Hixon could literally have Shaq and Michael Jordan on his roster and if they were freshman and Dan O'Shea was a senior, he'd start O'Shea. With the apparent top-tier talent that didn't even get time last year coupled with Adolphe's return, I really do believe Amherst will be a better team than they were last year.

As for Wash.U....they really lose just about NOTHING. Nikitas was a great team guy, but toward the end of the year he was sharing time with Cam Smith, the then-frosh who will step in and start this year. His transition to the starting five were almost surely be seamless. Also, consider how much freshman improve their sophomore year. That being the case, look for last year's UAA rookie of the year, Aaron Thompson, to serve as a sure-thing scoring option when Ruths, Nading, or Wallis are in trouble. AT averaged 7 or so a night last year, but his shooting percentage improved quite a bit toward the end of the year and will likely increase quite a bit this season. He is also a tremendous defender, particularly from beyond the perimeter.  Ruths, Nading, and Wallis may be the best top 3 in the nation. Conference POY big man, first team point guard as a sophomore, and perhaps D3's best defender in Tyler Nading (Nadign also averaged 15 points). The Bears also return second-year captain Danny O'Boyle who was averaging close to 15 before going down for the year with an injury in game 5 or 6. O'Boyle has one of (if not the  best) three-point shots in the UAA and is said to be healthy. People forget that he was expected to be the second or third leading scorer last year before going down with an injury.

Someone I expect will provide much needed size off the bench for Wash.U. is Zach Kelly. At 6'7" he's really solid around the basket and is expected to be fully healthy this year. He'll spell important relief for Ruths who may need a few extra breathers as Wash.U. is expected to run even more than last year. Two solid freshman in Spencer Gay and Caleb Knepper (apparently the kid has a beautiful stroke and is about 6'5," 6'6" will provide good depth as will Moss Schemerhorn down low.

Still, Amherst is loaded from about 1-11 and may be a bit deeper than Wash.U., but the Bears have more star power and play a much better schedule. They will be battle tested throughout the year and will have to face much more adversity in the regular season. Whether that proves beneficial will be determined in Salem. See you there...

[nescac hoops]

http://sports.espn.go.com/espntv/espnMicrosite?showID=FBCG

Like the Historian, I can't care about my karma points anymore. I actaully usually hate turning on Sports Center on Saturday morning at 10am to hear these bafoons analyze football but I think it's pretty cool that they will be in Williamstown this weekend. Williams by 13.

Marty Peretz,
Thanks for the analysis. I haven't seen Wash U play in a number of years but I just hope they don't have the downfall that Tufts had this past year where they had a "breakout" season only to get a head of themselves (#1 ranking) and forget what got them so far the year before. I'm not suggesting they are susceptable to such a "collapse" but I would give an edge to Amherst in the experience category of knowing how to win and stay on top. Not saying that Wash U doesn't have this but it is something "first timers" sometimes forget.

[walzy31]

Marty,

Nice breakdown of the #1 and #2 teams. I think they are comparable as well and would matchup evenly. Both teams have a scary starting 5, and Amherst has a deep bench. I think it will be a Wash U / Amherst national championship game with Wash U coming in with a three-loss record and Amherst with zero or one.

Ruths-Nading-Wallis
Baskauskas-Hopkins-Olson
I would pay to watch that 3-on-3.


Random Amherst stat:
Baskauskas, Bradley, Hopkins, S. Wheeler        FG% last year  306-504  (60.7%)
                                                                   3PT FG% last year  74-144   (51.4%)
with fletcher not far off those numbers

add Olson's 243 assists, 86.7% FT shooting, and vision... Brandon Jones' defense and rebounding... and the return of Goldsmith & Coulibaly

DJ, Wong, Holsey, Lundeen and the class of 2011.