MBB: NESCAC

[La Verdad]

Nescac1,

I'm curious about why you expect Jones' production to dip and Hopkins'/Baskauskas' to go up once league play begins.  I'd expect all of their numbers to go up once Hixon shortens the bench.

-I definitely think Jones is the second-best player on his team right now.  Any controversy about him not starting, or is there a good reason for that that I'm not seeing?

Eclinchy,

No controversy from what I can see.  Walters has gotten off to a slow start, but I think everyone expects for him to pick his game up after the break.  Jones has been extremely strong thus far, and I fully expect him to continue playing that way.  He's the type of kid who sees the big picture and doesn't have a problem coming off the bench.  That being said, why Jones instead of Hopkins for all nescac?  Hopkins' numbers might be a little better than Jones' so far?  No way to justify having 3 Jeffs on the squad at this point, so I guess it's just a toss up for those two?

[eclinchy]

Hopkins' numbers might be a little better than Jones' so far?  No way to justify having 3 Jeffs on the squad at this point, so I guess it's just a toss up for those two?

Except for points, rebounds and assists...

I think Jones is a pretty easy pick... to be honest I kinda surprised myself by putting him as low as tenth.  He's the leading scorer on the (arguably, I suppose) best team in the league.  How can you say no?  Plus if my memory serves me correctly, Hixon once told me Jones was the most athletic defender he had.  Always a nice plus.

Not saying Hopkins won't overtake Jones eventually -- he might -- and it's also possible that they'll both make it, although I kinda doubt that.  Right now it's Jones.

[nescac hoops]

Jones has been extremely strong thus far, and I fully expect him to continue playing that way.  He's the type of kid who sees the big picture and doesn't have a problem coming off the bench.  That being said, why Jones instead of Hopkins for all nescac?  Hopkins' numbers might be a little better than Jones' so far?  No way to justify having 3 Jeffs on the squad at this point, so I guess it's just a toss up for those two?

Jones is averaging .7 points more per game, shooting 78% from the line while Hopkins is shooting 57%, Jones's assist to turnover ratio is 3:2 while Hopkins is 1:2, Jones poses a limited 3pt. threat at 3-6 from behind the arc while Hopkins doesn't. I realize that some of these stats are really "splitting hairs" but the real kicker for me is that Jones doesn't start and averages 2 more boards per game than Hopkins despite being 3 inches shorter. I can't bring myself to vote for a 6'10'' guy that averages 3.5 boards a game. More importantly, in the close wins that Amherst has had against MIT and most certainly Lassell, Jones has out played Hopkins.

[NESCACAlumn]

I guess it's Black by a hair...

I believe in this case it would be Black by a quaff...

[NY hoopster]

Nescac Hoops:

With regard to your question as to whether Colby's four 15+ point per game shooters might be
"cherry picking " and not playing defense, consider the following;
-Two of the four are #1 and  #3 in steals in the league, and Colby leads the league as a team in steals
-Adam Choice is one of the four, and is #6 in the league in blocked shots

With respect to the high scoring, beside the fact that there are high percentage shooters in the group, Colby leads the league in turnover margin, which obviously means they are making the most of each of their possessions.

I don't put any of the above on the board to be argumentative-just informational; I think the posts of the last day or so have been on the whole, "fair and balanced".

I agree that the amount of points Colby has been giving up must come down if they expect to have a successful season, and they need to make defensive adjustments to make that happen. They need to do better on the defensive boards, but I think Mike Russell is going to going to fill that gap as he gets more playing time.

[nescac hoops]

Quite frankly, most half decent NESCAC players could put up 15+ points a game if they could "cherry pick" and play no defense and lose, thus the importance of a team's record in selecting players. I'm not saying this is what Colby is doing but time will tell if this run-n'-gun system is really working or if these stats are just "inflated".

I guess my argument would have been easier understood if I mentioned a team like Grinnell, the Iowa team famous for the "system" and was mentioned last week on this website b/c the coach's son had 30+ assists against a really weak team. They sub five players in and out every couple minutes and players trap all over the floor and run like crazy on offense. I have not seen Colby play but it seems like Colby has the same mentality but perhaps not as extreme. But, if you were to look at the stats of some of the Grinnell players in terms of scoring (run like crazy) and steals (they trap but give up a lot of points in the meantime), they would look like they had 4-6 all-americans based on these stats. In this case, steals doesn't necessarily translate into good defense. Grinnell hasn't been to the final four recently. While they have had some success over the years, they are not as good as their stats may appear to the "blind observer", which is why I think one needs to consider wins and losses. The year Williams won the national championship their leading scorer averaged about 14 a game. Meanwhile, I'm sure Grinnell had 4 20+ points guys a night but I wouldn't take all of them over Ben Coffin, Mike Crotty, and the other eph starters who did not sport those type of stats but were clearly better. I think the only way you can make sense of "inflated" stats due to a team's playing style is by wins and losses. Right now, based on stats alone, it looks like Colby has 4-6 all leaguers. The year Williams won the national championship, I think they had 2 or 3. I think time will tell and we'll see how Colby does in the league. If they finish in the top 5 they are probably worthy of 2 votes for all conference but certainly not the 4-6 who have all league type numbers.

[hoopjunkie]

If you look at who Colby has played they are all very weak schools . The 2 good not great schools they played ,were  Elms who they did beat in OT & Bowdoin who they lost to.
The other schools like University of New England , Southern Maine & Thomas all have .500 or below records . These stats are very deceiving to say the least .

[NY hoopster]

Nescac Hoops & hoopsjunkie

The stats on defense were only used to show that Colby's shooters are playing D, and not giving up on D merely to score. I couldn't agree more that in-league wins by a team must be a very important consideration in picking all-leaguers. No one is making an arguement that Colby has 4 all leaguers based on these early stats, given the competition. I like using NESCAC only stats, but we obviously don't have enough yet. What having 4 scorers in the top 6 in NESCAC so far does show that Colby can be experted to have more balanced scoring than last year.

[La Verdad]

Hopkins' numbers might be a little better than Jones' so far?  No way to justify having 3 Jeffs on the squad at this point, so I guess it's just a toss up for those two?

Except for points, rebounds and assists...

I think Jones is a pretty easy pick... to be honest I kinda surprised myself by putting him as low as tenth.  He's the leading scorer on the (arguably, I suppose) best team in the league.  How can you say no?  Plus if my memory serves me correctly, Hixon once told me Jones was the most athletic defender he had.  Always a nice plus.

Not saying Hopkins won't overtake Jones eventually -- he might -- and it's also possible that they'll both make it, although I kinda doubt that.  Right now it's Jones.

Should've checked the stats before I posted...

[BooBallsCasRay]

i will take former amherst greats bedford, casnocha, zalaski, corrigan and schiel over olsen, jones, hopkins, bausko and walters (or any other combo of current Jeffs) any day of the week.

that being said,

There is no such thing as global warming. Kevin Hopkins was cold, so he turned the sun up.

[nescac hoops]

There is no such thing as global warming. Kevin Hopkins was cold, so he turned the sun up.

I think we are all interested to see what Kevin does to explain being 6'10'' and averaging 3 boards a game.

[La Verdad]

i will take former amherst greats bedford, casnocha, zalaski, corrigan and schiel over olsen, jones, hopkins, bausko and walters (or any other combo of current Jeffs) any day of the week.

I'm sure olson, jones, hopkins, basko and walters will take their national championship over your approval. 

There is no such thing as global warming. Kevin Hopkins was cold, so he turned the sun up.

I think we are all interested to see what Kevin does to explain being 6'10'' and averaging 3 boards a game.

He dunks on peoples' heads...

[JeffRookie2]

i didnt see much dunking from the jeffs while terrell hollins was absolutely handing it to them on the inside.

[La Verdad]

i didnt see much dunking from the jeffs while terrell hollins was absolutely handing it to them on the inside.

I didn't go to the game (i tried to listen on the internet but the announcers spent the whole game giving expert analysis instead of play by play, making it impossible to follow), so I could be wrong, but I think it might be a bit of an exaggeration to say hollins absolutely handed it to amherst.  11 and 12 (Hollins) is a very good night by any standards, then again 12 and 6 (Hopkins) and 13 and 3 (Walters) aren't too shabby.  Based off what I was told and what I can gather from the stats (which may not be the whole story), it looks like a push?  I think one could even make a case that Hollins was quite unsuccessful on the defensive side of the ball (Hopkins goes 6-8 and walters goes 5-6 from the field), and inefficient on offense (3-9 from the field).  Did he clean up on the glass? Absolutely, but that doesn't mean he dominated.  Anywho, I think it is silly to say he handed it to Amherst because he got a bunch of boards and made his free throws. 
Thank you and goodnight.

[Bluesky]

Nescac Hoops-Are you a parent of a player on Williams or a fomer player? The reason I ask is because of your insight into the performance of the team so far. You clearly follow this team.  You should know that I too follow the team and am a big fan as well and I believe that Williams could have a great season.

However, listing Nescac all-star teams at this point is lunacy unless you have some other agenda. Both Rose and Shalvoy are clearly underperforming which is strange considering the weak competition faced so far. Joe G, while he has certainly been the most consistent player for Williams so far, has yet to play against any legitimate big man. He still has a ways to go in finishing around the basket. With regard to your analysis about Rose, Shalvoy and Snyder, take either Rose or Shalvoy off of the team and the team becomes a very average D3 Team. Take Snyder off the team and Williams wouldn't miss a beat.

Williams has yet to play a quality team except for Springfield and this will continue for a few more games, especially in the upcoming New York games. Keene State after the NY games might be on par with Springfield. Williams was tested early last season with no Rose and then a subpar Rose when he returned from his injury. This year's team has not been tested (one could argue that they have not been tested because they are very good) but I have concerns going forward that this team will struggle against the better Nescac teams due to their failure to develop any alternative and consistent firepower off the bench. Unlike last year where the tough early schedule benefited them later in the season, this year's early season cream puff schedule may hurt them when the games become tougher.

My own observation is that there is significant talent on the bench which has yet to be utilized. Unless I am missing something, it is either due to Paulsen's inability to change his rotation or figure out what is should be. My own guess is that it is the former. This too may haunt the team later on. The good news, however, is that this appears to be a very deep team and there is still some time before the real season starts to figure things out.