MBB: NESCAC

[Bluesky]

The Williams/Amherst game at Amherst is big one. No doubt about that. Congratulations to the winner! However, I think the game that carries far more importance is the Williams/Amherst game at Williams in a few weeks. That one is the league game.

I'm sure Williams would take a split right now with the win coming on their home court in a conference game.

[nescac hoops]

I think that Amherst has to be the favorite on their homecourt. Overall, I think the Jeffs are slightly more talented and have better size than the Ephs. That being said, I expect it to be a great game and would be far from shocked if the Ephs do win. But I think an Amherst "W" is mostly depending on the play of Olson/Shalvoy mathcup and how the Ephs can contain the Amherst bigs. What is with Olson this year - is he unjured? Don't get me wrong, he is obviously great and has had some great games but he has also some "dismal" games for being the reinging d3 hoops POY. I think at Babson he was 1-2 shooting and had 6 assists and 6 TOs and other games where he has seemingly just "blended in". Is it his ankle injuries or a little but of a slow start?

[fpc85]

Should they be favored to the same identical team that beat them last year ?

[nescac hoops]

Should they be favored to the same identical team that beat them last year ?

I think most would agree that the Ephs were playing their best basketball last year at that point and they aren't quite there this year (or at least haven't really shown it). Last year was also the third time the two teams met and...gulp...I also think Paulsen is a better coach than Hixon and is able to make some adjustments the third time around (hence, why the Ephs have had more success in NESCAC/NCAA playoff games against the Jeffs). The Ephs also shot extremely well albeit against some questionable Amherst defense and they have yet to have a shooting performance like that against a good (or good defensive) team. Like I have said, I think Amherst is overall a little more talented than the Ephs and have more size. If the game was at Williams and the Ephs had faced some stiffer competition thus far I would be a little more confident, although I feel better after the Keene St. game. I still expect it to to be a great game that could go either way but my bet is with the Jeffs this time around.

[ILive4This]

I think there are two reasons for Olson's "normal" numbers this season. First he had/has? the injury to I think it was one of his ankles. That is clearly going to be a factor. But I think the bigger issue is that he has more or less a target on his back. Teams double him, or just play much more physical on him than last year. Just a thought.

[nescac1]

Nescac Hoops, Olson may have had a few rough games, but Babson is known for its tough and physical defense, and Brandeis has several very quick, harassing style of guards, something that has always given Olson (or almost any point who handles the ball all the time) trouble.  But if you look at his overall numbers, they are very similar, arguable even a little better so far this year than last:

1 Andrew Olson....... 10-9 291 29.1 41-63 .651 16-26 .615 11-14 .786 2 18 20 2.0 8 0 65 35 1 11 109 10.9
1 Andrew Olson....... 32-32 1021 31.9 125-270 .463 53-133 .398 52-60 .867 10 71 81 2.5 30 0 243 95 2 36 355 11.1

he is shooting a MUCH higher percentage from both 2 and 3, and his average points, rebounds and assists per minute look almost identical.  He does have a few more turnovers per game, but hardly a material difference.    There are certainly things Amherst needs to worry about, but Olson is NOT one of them in my view. 

Will this game be webcast?  That would be cool ...

[nescac hoops]

Nescac1,
I did not say Amherst needs to be worried about Olson, but I think the "winner" of the Olson/Shalvoy MATCHUP will say a lot about the game.

But I think an Amherst "W" is mostly depending on the play of Olson/Shalvoy mathcup and how the Ephs can contain the Amherst bigs.

Last year Olson averaged 7.59 assists a game and had a 2.56 assist/turnover ratio. This year he is 6.5 and 1.8 (which doesn't lead the league). Last year's stats included games against EVERY team - I don't think Amherst has played the real "meat" of their schedule with the exception of Brandeis and I think these numbers are only going to get harder to keep up. Against the same harrassing, quick Brandeis guards last year he had 15pts and 9 assists. Against Babson last year, he had 13 and 5. Again, these numbers this year are still obviously great but for Olson they are not extraordinary. You know based on Williams shooting percentage, that the shots don't fall as easily against greater competition.

[walzy31]

Walzy what's the line ?

Amherst -4.5 Vs. Williams

Nescac1,
Great post reviewing the last eleven years of the rivalry. Really makes me upset about the fact that this will be the first Amherst/Williams hoop matchup I will miss after attending 15 straight. I know there are some fans for both sides who have far more impressive streaks (some active).

Will someone please do some All-NESCAC All-Crazy scouting on this game and any other conference games and report back to me? Thanks.

[daoustian]

Just discovered that I can post from a blackberry so I will try to do a few midgame updates on Saturday

[Rick Vaughn]

If d3cast is not doing the game I know in years past Williams will send a crew to do the game on Teamline and the school radio station will pick up the broadcast.  That broadcast can be heard by going to shoutcast.com and searching WCFM.

[toad22]

This is the first time since the Crotty, Coffin, Abba years the Williams goes into an Amherst game with roughly equal talent. Amherst shoots the ball better than the Ephs, but Williams should have an advantage on the boards. Both defenses are good, so the game may come down to depth and luck.

[fpc85]

The talent is not equal.

[frank uible]

And the game is not being played on a neutral court,

[dman]

nescac1,
   i'm trying to recall three wms vs. amh neutral-court games, since you list amh advantage at 2-1.  I remember the 2002 nescac semis at trin. and the 2004 final four in salem, but where and when was the third game??

[nescac1]

Woops, my bad Dman. I was thinking the 2001 nescac tourney was a neutral court, but I forgot that first round games are played on the higher seeded team's court (in that case, Amherst)... I will correct later on. 

fpc85 (who I assume is suggesting Amherst has more talent) providing some bulletin board material for Williams -- that is, if players actually read these boards. 

Here is what I'd say ... the talent is even, but Amherst's talent is a lot older / more experienced: of the top nine guys in Amherst's rotation, you are talking six seniors, one junior, one sophomore, and one frosh, and the seniors have already played in multiple final fours.  Of the top nine guys in Williams' rotation, there are three seniors, three juniors, and three sophomores (two of whom start), with a grand total of one NCAA game among them.   Amherst has a loaded senior class, while Williams has a loaded sophomore class (by next year, more guys from that class will in the rotation).  That makes a difference.  Add the home court advantage, and this will be a tough one to pull out.  To do so, the Ephs will need to accomplish three things, all of which have been sporadic this year: hit around 40 percent from 3 or better, go inside early and often to open up things a little on the perimeter and maybe get the Amherst bigs in foul trouble, and hit at least 75 percent from the foul line.  I am assuming that Williams will put in a good effort on rebounding and defense, because that has been there all season long.