MBB: NESCAC

eclinchy · January 16, 2008, 04:38:03 PM

Quote from: hoopjunkie on January 16, 2008, 11:13:55 AMI also feel the Jumbos NEED to get a big weekend from 6`9" Pat Sullivan . He is their only true big man

Tom Selby would like a word with you...

fpc85 · January 16, 2008, 05:21:38 PM

Quote from: Agent_Zero on August 24, 2007, 11:17:42 PM
thanx for opening your comment with "just a very biased opinion" fpc. explain to the rest of us what you know about the talent of goldsmith since he played all of 1 minute last year. jones averaged 4.6 and 2.9 in nearly 11 minutes of action. fletcher had a shade over 7 pts per game and under 4 boards in nearly 15 minutes per game. hopkins, who had a slightly respectable 10.4 pts, didnt even average 4 rebounds per game, which i find interesting for someone his size compared to other players in the conference. so maybe im missing something, maybe these players are all better than the box score seems to indicate but i watched them play 3 times last year and thought the stats reflected pretty well. now hopkins is a true five, which is an anomaly in the league, other than the waste of space at tufts, pat sullivan. pierce and weitzen are better than all those players. so is russ martin. prolly make a decent case for a couple other guys too. but hey, thats just my very biased opinion...ive got stats to back it though

AZ, i guess this means the jumbos should win the frontcourt battle?

Quote from: Agent_Zero on January 16, 2008, 01:37:55 AM
hoopjunkie, i agree with what you said in your most recent post that Tufts has a lot more than Jon Pierce. Jake Weitzen is just as key to their success i feel. the reason pierce is having such a dominant year is because of weitzens play making ability and leadership. that might get overlooked because hes not putting up 23 and 9 a night like pierce is, but i know that its no less important to that team. jeremy black has also played really well. and their bench has stepped up, with some of the younger guys making significant contributions in different games. and where did all this talk about pierce going for 60+ this weekend come about?? if he gets his average, that wouldnt even be a 50 point weekend. i mean, the kid is having a nice year but to think hes just gonna walk into amherst and trinity, two really tough spots to play and against two top tier teams and drop 30+ on each of them...well arent we getting a little ahead of ourselves?? i mean, of course i would love to see that, being a tufts fan but also, im trying to tamper my expectations of that kinda scoring.

but hey...here's to him proving me wrong

hmmm

Agent_Zero · January 16, 2008, 07:00:31 PM

yes, i do think the jumbos should "win" the front court battle. just cuz i said i dont expect pierce to average 30 a game this weekend doesnt mean i dont think that they match up well inside with amherst. in last years game, walters and hopkins made a minimum impact with hop only logging four minutes. i still expect big games outta pierce and weitzen, which is what the jumbos will have to have in order to be competitive. in my opinion, its on the wings where amherst has the biggest advantage, with bascauskas and jones.

La Verdad · January 16, 2008, 07:40:03 PM

Quote from: Agent_Zero on January 16, 2008, 07:00:31 PM
yes, i do think the jumbos should "win" the front court battle. just cuz i said i dont expect pierce to average 30 a game this weekend doesnt mean i dont think that they match up well inside with amherst. in last years game, walters and hopkins made a minimum impact with hop only logging four minutes. i still expect big games outta pierce and weitzen, which is what the jumbos will have to have in order to be competitive. in my opinion, its on the wings where amherst has the biggest advantage, with bascauskas and jones.

Jones has gotten 99% of his minutes at the 4 or 5 this season. Walters has been playing on the wing lately. Doubt that changes your opinion of anything, but I thought you should know.

walzy31 · January 16, 2008, 07:48:51 PM

Quote from: JeffRookie2 on January 15, 2008, 10:40:41 PM
Also, out of curiosity, what is Amherst's record against your spreads so far this year?

Amherst is 3-4-1 ATS this season (3-3-1 against D3 opponents). I have only capped 8 games so far.

Quote from: ILive4This on January 15, 2008, 09:53:14 PM
Has a spread been made for the trinity/tufts and tufts/amherst games this week

Come to the source.

Amherst -9.5 Vs. Tufts
Trinity -7.0 Vs. Bates

Amherst -17.5 Vs. Bates
Trinity -4.0 Vs. Tufts

Agent_Zero · January 16, 2008, 08:55:16 PM

no verdad, it doesnt change my opinion. other than i think its an even better match up for the jeffs with walters on the wing against the wings of tufts. he has much more size on them.

La Verdad · January 16, 2008, 09:26:17 PM

Quote from: Agent_Zero on January 16, 2008, 08:55:16 PM
no verdad, it doesnt change my opinion. other than i think its an even better match up for the jeffs with walters on the wing against the wings of tufts. he has much more size on them.

How are Pierce and Weitzen defensively? Hopkins, Jones, Walters and Goldsmith can all score in the post. Can the Tufts bigs stop them and still have the energy needed to put up big numbers on the other end? Does Pierce usually guard the opposing 5? Who does Tufts have if either Pierce or Weitzen get tired or in foul trouble? (I've never seen Tufts play, so all I know is that Pierce puts up big numbers)

Agent_Zero · January 16, 2008, 10:03:00 PM

pierce usually guards the other team's more athletic post, whether its the four or the five. thats from what i have seen at games anyway. no opposing big man has really given the jumbos problems this year, other than terrell hollins, who is a beast and gives everyone problems. so id say their defense is suitable. off the bench, they have pat sullivan and tom selby, two big bodies but its hard to know what to expect from them. hopefully, they rise to the challenge. but you raise a good point...foul trouble for pierce or weitzen, and it could be a long night down low.

Agent_Zero · January 16, 2008, 10:04:26 PM

and pierce is averaging over 30 minutes per game. so im guessing hes in decent enough shape to bring it on both ends of the floor

La Verdad · January 16, 2008, 10:30:48 PM

Does that mean Weitzen guards the other big? Weitzen guarding Hopkins is a matchup that probably won't be good for Tufts. Then again, Hopkins guarding Weitzen isn't an ideal matchup for Amherst.

Hixon seems to have tweaked his game plan lately. Ever since he put Jones, Walters and Hopkins in the starting lineup the Jeffs have run their offense through the post. If this is the case on Friday, Pierce and Weitzen are going to be very busy on both sides of the court. I wouldn't be surprised if the two front courts cancel each other out and the game is decided by the perimeter players.

fpc85 · January 17, 2008, 08:16:48 AM

the numbers say the jumbos should dominate. pierce may be the most difficult cover in the NESCAC and may be the frontrunner for poy. i am not sure if anyone can cover him. same for weitzen...not too many guys can cover him inside and out. i hope the jeffs bigs are able to keep them from exploding for big numbers. hop and company have their hands full. wish i could be there.

frank uible · January 17, 2008, 08:58:22 AM

Maybe Tufts should move to the Big East. Or the ACC.

nescac1 · January 17, 2008, 09:26:54 AM

This conversation has been pretty bizarre. I've never seen a fan underestimate his team more than FPC (he's even trumped Senator in this regard), who claimed it was a major surprise that Amherst beat Elms(!), and Williams at home, the same Amherst team who is the defending national champion, returned the national player of the year, has four senior and one junior starters (plus a senior and very talented soph as the first guys off the bench), and starts four guys 6'6 or over, three of whom are extremely athletic defenders who can rebound and shoot the 3. These guys may not be QUITE as good as last year, but they are still, ummm, a pretty talented bunch led by one of the best players in the country, and should not be considered an "underdog" in any game remaining this regular season, except maybe a pick 'em on the road against Williams.

Conversely, the Tufts fans seem to overestimate their team just a wee bit based on the past two years. Tufts, if I'm not mistaken, finished 6th in NESCAC last year, graduated three starters, and has already posted losses to powerhouses such as Bridgewater St., Kings, and Wilkes. Sure, they have a few good wins (Wheaton and Keene), but 9-4 is still one of the worst out of conference records in the conference so far. They just barely beat a terrible Maine-Farmington team that Bowdoin and Trinity possitively pounded. Pierce is a superstar and Weitzen is tough to handle on offense (although on defense, he has a lot of trouble with the quicker guys he is often forced to guard due to his height), but Tufts doesn't have the overall depth or talent of Amherst.

Now, I realize that Tufts always, for whatever reason, gives Amherst a lot of trouble, but on paper it is a pretty big mismatch in Amherst's favor. Normally, I'd say Amherst by about 15, but given the trouble they have had with Tufts over the years, make it Amherst by 12.

As for Bowdoin, hard to know how good they are. Other than a narrow win over Colby, they have beaten no one who would have given any of the top-tier NESCAC teams (which I would say, this year, are Amherst, Williams, Midd and Trinity) a game, in all likelihood. But wins are wins. If they can beat Williams at home, they are likely for real. We will see on Friday.

Going into the conference season, the out of conference results pretty much confirm what I thought going into the year. Certainly there will be some surprises in conference play which will change this order, but right now, I'd say: 1. Amherst, 2. Williams, 3. Midd 4. Trinity 5. Tufts 6. Conn College 7. Bowdoin 8. Colby 9. Bates (yes, they beat Colby and Bowdoin, but by a combined 3 points, and both games were at home, I'd expect different results on the road) 10. Wesleyan. The league does seems pretty balanced, with most of the top 5-6 capable of beating one another on any given day. I'd be surprised if Wes wins a league game.

Leading contenders for all-conference, in order: Pierce, Olson, Stone, Shalvoy, Jones, Walters, R. Taylor, R. Martin, Geoghegan, Weitzen. Other players to watch: Rudin, Smith, Harris from Midd (hard to pick just one of these guys), J.; Young, Rose, Schultz, Baskauskas, Choice, Hippert (if he gets healthy), Black. Break-out player: Paul Rowe, Trinity. ROY: Brian Ellis (although Russell from Colby and McDougal from Trinity are coming on and are players to watch).

nescac hoops · January 17, 2008, 10:25:18 AM

Nescac 1,
I couldn't agree with you more - FCP, your undermining of Amherst is almost comical to the extent that it comes off as sarcasm. With Olson and a team with that much height and athleticism, they will give anybody trouble. As forr hoopjunkie and eclinchy, yes Tufts plays a tough schedule but who have they beat that other NESCAC school haven't? Keene, Babson, MIT and Clarke have all been handled by Williams and Amherst too. Your one "impressive" loss was to Brandeis while the others are pretty bad losses. I give the Jumbos credit for playing a tough out of conference schedule but they really haven't had any big wins that other NESCAC schools haven't had.

eclinchy · January 17, 2008, 12:38:41 PM

Quote from: nescac hoops on January 17, 2008, 10:25:18 AMAs forr hoopjunkie and eclinchy

Why me? Am I a Tufts cheerleader all of a sudden? Everything I've said has been fair to them -- not overdoing it. I never once said anything about them being a favorite against Amherst or anything like that.

9.5 is a decent spread, Walzy. I'll take those points and go with the Jumbos, but it's close.

And for what it's worth, I'm 100% on the "FPC's underestimating is hilarious" bandwagon.