MBB: American Southwest Conference

[jmnaseum]

Hee Hee; I was just a joking -- Trying to get the message board going
It worked!!

[NJBalla35]

Does anyone know if Coach Drummond will keep this job, or if they are going to hire an outsider.  If so, any ideas?

http://www.hoopdirt.com/blog/2dfbd7c6f/head-coach-opening-howard-payne-university-tx/

[jmnaseum]

Ralph,

With McM men on the road for these four games, are you getting ready to hit the road?
Can McM survive and hold onto the lead?

[Ralph Turner]

Ralph,

With McM men on the road for these four games, are you getting ready to hit the road?
Can McM survive and hold onto the lead?

jmnaseum, I will follow the games on the audio-stream.  I have been able to see the last three Saturday games, but I need to work over the next three weekends.

I think that Coach Holmes is finally getting these men to do what they need to do.

I really believe in Robert Moreno, the point guard.  I just need the men to play all 40 minutes.  The performance against CTX last Saturday was excellent.  We have not matched up well versus UMHB.

If we play Coach Holmes' game plan, then we will do okay.

[JACKET84]

Does anyone know if Coach Drummond will keep this job, or if they are going to hire an outsider.  If so, any ideas?

http://www.hoopdirt.com/blog/2dfbd7c6f/head-coach-opening-howard-payne-university-tx/

I hope so.  The players seem to really play hard for him.  He's been giving everyone playing time, and that includes a lot of freshmen.  Even though they have a loosing record, they've always put out a great effort and kept games competative.  They have a bright future if everyone stays in place.

[TheBuzz]

Can someone help with the tie-breaking procedure if UT-Dallas and LETU end up with same conference record and split the season series?

[pistol pete 22]

I believe it goes to head to head records against the top teams in the East. For instance, if they are tied for first it will go to their records against MC and on down the line until the tie is broken.  If any of the two of UTT, ETBU and OU tie for fourth it will be determined by the record against the 1st place team in the East.

Im not 100% on thats how I think the tie breaker is broken if the season series is split

[Ralph Turner]

ASC Tie-breaker

[Ralph Turner]

Just to clarify this point, I am going to use the ASC teams an ideal example of how not to use the system to your advantage.  The ASC appears to be the conference with the most "in-bred" schedules, meaning nearly all of their opponents and opponents' opponents are from the same group of teams (the other teams in the ASC).  As comparison, I will use the NESCAC and UAA as counter examples (each has advantages due to different reasons)

OWP and OOWP for ASC teams (with 4-6 conference games to go, these numbers will likely approach 0.500 even more):

Taxas-Dallas 0.521 0.515
Letourneau 0.521 0.511
Miss. College 0.520 0.501
Texas-Tyler  0.537 0.508
East Texas Baptist 0.503 0.509
Ozarks 0.503 0.507
LA College 0.520 0.503

McMurry 0.511 0.514
MHB 0.550 0.509
Concordia 0.473 0.494
Hardin Simmons 0.503 0.510
Sul Ross State 0.466 0.504
Texas Lutheran  0.467 0.504
Schreiner 0.499 0.501
Howard Payne 0.466 0.504

Even though each of these teams has about 20% of their games left (and all of them in conference), all of the OWP and OOWP numbers are clustered very close to 0.500.  In fact, only one team, MHB, has an OWP of 0.55 or higher and only 2 have OWP have OWP's of 0.525 or higher. In terms of OOWP, there is no team with a value greater than 0.515.

The NESCAC, on the other hand:

Middlebury 0.515 0.516
Amehrst 0.491 0.552
Williams 0.522 0.534
Colby 0.582 0.526
Bowdoin 0.582 0.518
Trinity 0.573 0.533
Bates 0.573 0.514
Conn College 0.506 0.532
Wesleyan 0.536 0.501
Tufts 0.555 0.530

We see here that 5 of 10 teams have OWPs over 0.55.  In the NESCAC, the OWP is more of a reflection of the schedule that the teams scheduled out of conference.  You can also see that Amherst's OWP is the lowest in the conference, while their OOWP is the highest.  This is likely due to the fact that their out-of-conference schedule was filled with cupcakes while most of their other opponents, including those in the conference, played tougher schedules so Amherst's OOWP is high.

Here is another example, the UAA, that you would expect to have a range of OWP and OOWP because there will likely be very little "in-breeding" in their out of conference schedules beause they are in geographically different regions:

WashU 0.560 0.545
CMU 0.520 0.537
Rochester  0.543 0.538
Brandeis 0.605 0.540
Case 0.553 0.520
Chicago 0.594 0.533
NYU 0.532 0.536
Emory  0.530 0.503

We see that although the UAA plays more conference games (given the season is not over yet and each team has 5 more conference games) than the NESCAC, they are also at an advantage because most teams play in different regions of the country and therefore have less common opponents in their out of conference schedules (or less "in-breeding" within their schedules).  All teams but one have OWP greater than 0.525 and 4 of 8 have higher than 0.55.

hugenerd, I have been applauding your posts for a couple of weeks now!

This post is worth dozens of karma!  There are several of us in the ASC who have been fighting this.  I will cut-and-paste this on the ASC board.

Here is another analysis (from the Pool C board) of what we are not doing to help ASC teams to get NCAA Pool C bids.  We have been used as an example of doing it the wrong way!

[Pat Coleman]

And Mary Hardin-Baylor, the one with the statistically high OWP, is the one that invited UW-Whitewater to its tournament and scheduled Trinity and Southwestern. Ken DeWeese gets it. LetU is benefiting from that schedule as well. UTD and UTT are benefiting from Guilford's presence in UTD's tourney.

[imad3fanatic]

And Mary Hardin-Baylor, the one with the statistically high OWP, is the one that invited UW-Whitewater to its tournament and scheduled Trinity and Southwestern. Ken DeWeese gets it. LetU is benefiting from that schedule as well. UTD and UTT are benefiting from Guilford's presence in UTD's tourney.

UMHB has a win over UW-W #5 in the West region and 2 over McMurry #4 in the South. Almost all of their losses have been to ranked teams.

[pistol pete 22]

SU over HPU- X
CUA over HSU X
UTD over LC-
McM over UMHB X
TLU over SRSU X
UO over MC-UO X
ETBU over UTT- X

McM over CUA
UTD over MC X
UMHB over HSU
LeT over Tyler
SU over SRSU- X
UO over LC- Gotta believe LC will win one game against the East i just have no clue who they are gonna sneak up on...X i kinda predicted it lol
HPU over TLU X



57-32
horrible week for me

[pistol pete 22]

CTX over SU
ETBU over LC
MC over LeT
UTT over UTD
McM over SRSU
HPU over HSU
UMHB over TLU

UMHB over SU
HSU over SRSU
McM over HPU
MC over ETBU
LeT over LC
UTT over UO
CTX over TLU

horrible week for me so i went with some upsets...
Dont look now, but MC is makin a push to get the tournament in Clinton. They can do it with some big wins an UTD slippin up twice.
UTT just wants to get in an I think they will get two big wins this weekend to help the cause.
The bottom of the West is very confusing. CTX will seperate a little bit this week. While TLU an SU go 0-2.

[golden_dome]

And Mary Hardin-Baylor, the one with the statistically high OWP, is the one that invited UW-Whitewater to its tournament and scheduled Trinity and Southwestern. Ken DeWeese gets it. LetU is benefiting from that schedule as well. UTD and UTT are benefiting from Guilford's presence in UTD's tourney.

Pat,
    I agree that Coach DeWeese does as good a job as any coach in the South working the current system, and he does get it. But you're post also highlights the still existing obstacles teams in the south face with the current system.

    UMHB has four remaining opponents with a record of 23-59. Coach DeWeese has as good a schedule as possible for his situation, but when those four games are factored in his OWP will probably be slightly below .500. And his OOWP will also be about .500.

[Ralph Turner]

When McMurry was 4th in this week's regional rankings, I had great hope for McMurry to get a Pool C bid if McM finished the regular season undefeated and had a very good tourney.

Blowing a 12-point halftime lead tonight chucks all of that out the window.

Now if McMurry wants to play an NCAA playoff game, then they must win the tourney!