MBB: American Southwest Conference

[CUAfan]

Updated Rankings

ASC West
# Team (W-L) - Off/Def/Net/Pace
1. Mary Hardin-Baylor (18-1) - 1.08/0.91/+0.17/74.4
2. Hardin-Simmons (14-5) - 1.07/0.98/+0.09/76.4
3. McMurry (11-8) - 1.09/1.03/+0.06/78.0
4. Concordia-Texas (11-8) - 1.06/1.04/+0.02/88.2
5. Schreiner (10-9) - 1.02/1.01/+0.01/77.4
6. Texas Lutheran (9-10) - 0.96/0.96/+0.00/72.0
7. Howard Payne (7-12) - 0.98/1.04/-0.06/75.8
8. Sul Ross State (7-12) - 0.91/0.98/-0.07/68.6

ASC East
# Team (W-L) - Off/Def/Net/Pace
1. Texas-Dallas (14-4) - 1.10/0.96/+0.14/67.5
2. East Texas Baptist (11-7) - 1.04/1.00/+0.04/76.9
3. Mississippi College (6-12) - 1.01/1.06/-0.04/73.1
4. Ozarks (5-13) - 1.02/1.09/-0.07/74.7
5. Louisiana College (7-11) - 0.95/1.03/-0.08/74.1
6. Texas-Tyler (6-12) - 0.94/1.02/-0.08/70.5
7. LeTourneau (3-15) - 0.87/1.03/-0.16/72.4

[CUAfan]

Projections for the upcoming weekend + Monday

February 16
Hardin-Simmons 76 vs. Sul Ross State 67 (73 poss.)
Hardin-Simmons 94 vs. Sul Ross State 74 (74 poss.)
Louisiana College 76 vs. East Texas Baptist 76 (76 poss.) [fractional favorite - ETBU]
Louisiana College 83 vs. East Texas Baptist 80 (74 poss.)
LeTourneau 74 vs. Ozarks 74 (74 poss.) [fractional favorite - LETU]
LeTourneau 63 vs. Ozarks 74 (71 poss.)
McMurry 84 vs. Howard Payne 75 (77 poss.)
McMurry 101 vs. Howard Payne 89 (84 poss.)
Schreiner 75 vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor 77 (76 poss.) [projected w/ SU at home by mistake]
Mary Hardin-Baylor 79 vs. Schreiner 74 (73 poss.)
Texas Lutheran 82 vs. Concordia-Texas 79 (80 poss.)
Texas Lutheran 85 vs. Concordia-Texas 80 (88 poss.)
Texas-Tyler 68 vs. Texas-Dallas 72 (69 poss.)
Texas-Tyler 54 vs. Texas-Dallas 64 (61 poss.)

February 18
Hardin-Simmons 82 vs. Howard Payne 73 (76 poss.)
Hardin-Simmons 82 vs. Howard Payne 70 (87 poss.)
LeTourneau 66 vs. Texas-Dallas 73 (70 poss.)
LeTourneau 62 vs. Texas-Dallas 74 (67 poss.)
Mississippi College 77 vs. East Texas Baptist 77 (75 poss.) [fractional favorite - MC]
Mississippi College 88 vs. East Texas Baptist 66 (75 poss.)
McMurry 78 vs. Sul Ross State 69 (73 poss.)
McMurry 85 vs. Sul Ross State 75 (76 poss.)
Schreiner 87 vs. Concordia-Texas 84 (83 poss.)
Schreiner 90 vs. Concordia-Texas 76 (88 poss.)
Texas Lutheran 70 vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor 73 (73 poss.)
Texas Lutheran 53 vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor 60 (71 poss.)
Texas-Tyler 76 vs. Ozarks 72 (73 poss.)
Texas-Tyler 89 vs. Ozarks 80 (85 poss.)

February 20
Louisiana College 76 vs. Mississippi College 73 (74 poss.)

If all those winners hold true (which is highly unlikely) and I understand the tiebreakers right, the tournament field will shake out as follows:
West:
1 - Mary Hardin-Baylor (20-1)
2 - Hardin-Simmons (16-5)
3 - McMurry (13-8)
4 - Schreiner (11-10), by virtue of season sweep of CTX

East:
1 - Texas-Dallas (16-4)
2 - East Texas Baptist (12-8)
3 - Louisiana College (8-12)
4 - Mississippi College (7-13), by virtue of tiebreaker over Texas-Tyler*

* - MC & UTT split the season series and both go 0-2 against UTD, but MC splits with ETBU while UTT goes 0-2. Therefore, MC gets the fourth seed.

[Ralph Turner]

If UMHB sweeps the season, then I think that they will host a second round game, just like McMurry did last season.

The tourney will have a few byes to give, and there will be geographic travel-orphans.

UMHB is the #1 ranked team in the South. I think that they get the bye in round #1, a home game in round #2 and then flown somewhere as in 2011.

[CruFrenzy]

Ralph, why wouldn't UMHB get to host more than just until the second round? If they are the No.1 team in their fourth of the bracket doesn't that mean they could host until the final 4? Or is it different in basketball?

[Ralph Turner]

Ralph, why wouldn't UMHB get to host more than just until the second round? If they are the No.1 team in their fourth of the bracket doesn't that mean they could host until the final 4? Or is it different in basketball?

In the round of 16, it is easier to fly UMHB to somewhere and bus 2 other teams into the host than to fly 3 teams to Belton...

one plane flight instead of three!

[CruFrenzy]

So they don't take Regional Ranking into consideration?

[Ralph Turner]

Good interview with Coach DeWeese on Hoopsville.

[Ralph Turner]

So they don't take Regional Ranking into consideration?

Yes they will be there will be 8 #1 teams in the Regional Rankings and only 4 sites for the Sweet 16.

They can find another #1 seed without the geographical proximity issues that we have in the ASC.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Ralph is right - being on a geographical "island" is the curse of Texas, northwest, California, and other teams. UMHB certainly have a chance at hosting... but it could be tough to convince the NCAA to pay for three flights to Texas... versus one flight to fly UMHB to another site.

That being said, I think there was a lot of frustration last year when Whitworth was basically given no chance to host in the Northwest (which has been done once before in recent history, but there were other factors in play like one of the other teams being considered not being allowed to host because their women's team had that right)... so, I wouldn't be surprised to see a team like UMHB being given a chance this year. I think there has been enough frustration being voiced about teams like Whitworth automatically being given the short stick that there could be further discussions and compromise given now or in the near future - especially if UMHB presents a tough argument per their schedule, SOS, results, etc.

[CUAfan]

Has any work been done to see what impact home-court advantage is having on Sweet 16 results? It seems to me that whoever has HCA is going to naturally win more often than on a true neutral court, which would mean that in choosing host sites for the Sweet 16 the NCAA is making a decision with potentially huge impact on the subsequent results. Not deciding the Final 4, necessarily, but penalizing a team like UMHB with a tourney road game due to the almighty dollar.

[Pat Coleman]

Last year two of the Final Four teams had hosted the previous weekend, two had not. I can't recall a year recently in which all four advanced.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Agree with Pat... I don't think the Final Four has ever had all four teams from host schools make it in recent memory.

While that decision may have hurt a Texas school a few years ago when they had to travel to Virginia Wesleyan... but they also may have been affected by the triple overtime game right before them... delaying the start of their game by maybe an hour. :-)

[cover2]

Any thoughts on TLU leaving the ASC?  How does this change the East/West dynamic if at all?  And, the travel partners set up.

[CUAfan]

What? I know SU is leaving, but I hadn't read anything about TLU.

[Pat Coleman]

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