MBB: American Southwest Conference

[Ralph Turner]

HSU 64, UTD 63.

Another win by HSU over a regionally ranked team, but I think that their only chance is to win the ASC.

I'm none too familiar with the whole selection process in D3, but it seems to me that the ASC is only likely to get the HSU/MCM winner plus Mary Hardin-Baylor into the tournament, but not all three.

This year, I think that you are right.  Getting 2 in this year will be a good think. I don't think that HSU or UTD would have earned an at large bid otherwise.

I will bet that UMHB hosts a first round game.

[crufootball]

HSU 64, UTD 63.

Another win by HSU over a regionally ranked team, but I think that their only chance is to win the ASC.

I'm none too familiar with the whole selection process in D3, but it seems to me that the ASC is only likely to get the HSU/MCM winner plus Mary Hardin-Baylor into the tournament, but not all three.

This year, I think that you are right.  Getting 2 in this year will be a good think. I don't think that HSU or UTD would have earned an at large bid otherwise.

I will bet that UMHB hosts a first round game.

Would you think UMHB host the winner of HSU/McM in the first round?

[Ralph Turner]

With Trinity winning the SCAC, I now think that UMHB hosts the Saturday game.

I think that Trinity might go to HSU and McMurry might go to Trinity, just looking at the ranking criteria.

[cover2]

I think you're right Ralph.  I thought there might be a chance for 3 ASC teams to make a Texas sub bracket before Trinity won their bid.  Now that they've won it the sub bracket happens by default and includes the SCAC.

[Ralph Turner]

HSU and McM are tied at 65. Less than 5 minutes left.

3:38 left; Tied at 68.

Going to OT. Tied at 73.

Final McMurry 86, HSU 81.

We only beat HSU once this season, but as my Alabama acquaintances reminded me, you really want to win the last game you play against an opponent.

[mcmfan]

And now, as per past NCAA experience, McMurry will probably get to play UMHB again, just like last year...   

[CUAfan]

Congratulations to McMurry on making good on being the preseason #1 in the West with a conference title and NCAA bid!

Top Performances in the Tournament

Best Offense: 1.34, Hardin-Simmons vs. Louisiana College, 2/24
Best Defense: 0.82, Texas-Dallas vs. Schreiner, 2/24
Biggest Win: +0.37, Texas-Dallas (1.19) vs. Schreiner (0.82), 2/24
Closest Win: +0.02, Hardin-Simmons (1.02) vs. Texas-Dallas (1.00), 2/25
Most Offense: Hardin-Simmons (1.34) vs. Louisiana College (1.21), 2/24
Least Offense: Mary Hardin-Baylor (1.00) vs. Mississippi College (0.84), 2/24

[mcmfan]

An interesting exercise in statistics: the team that won the conference didn't score in any of your categories!  Do you need some other category to cover whatever McM did to win out?

[mcmfan]

I think you're right Ralph.  I thought there might be a chance for 3 ASC teams to make a Texas sub bracket before Trinity won their bid.  Now that they've won it the sub bracket happens by default and includes the SCAC.

Maybe like the 2005-6 season, when the McM women won the conference and then got a sectional which looked like a repeat of the conference tournament?  That would have McM hosting UMHB, HSU, and Trinity.  Think how much travel money that would save the NCAA!

[CUAfan]

An interesting exercise in statistics: the team that won the conference didn't score in any of your categories!  Do you need some other category to cover whatever McM did to win out?

McMurry's ASC Tournament Margins
2/24: +0.28, McMurry (1.13), East Texas Baptist (0.85)
2/25: +0.12, McMurry (1.12), Mary Hardin-Baylor (1.00)
2/26: +0.06, McMurry (1.10), Hardin-Simmons (1.04)

McMurry was absurdly consistent (and very good) offensively. That tends to help. I don't think they really got worse on defense as much as they faced a series of increasingly better offenses.

McMurry Tourney Opponent Offenses
ETBU: Season, 1.01; Game, 0.85; -15.8%
UMHB: Season, 1.05; Game, 1.00; -4.8%
HSU: Season, 1.05; Game 1.04; -1.0%
MCM: Season, 1.07; Tourney 1.12; +4.7%

So, they played very good to average defense, and managed to consistently improve upon the second-best offense in the conference over three games. Now, the downside of this is that nobody is that consistent over an extended period, so McMurry is "due" for a relatively poor offensive game, meaning back down to the 1.02-1.05 range. Which can still win, it's just harder.

[mcmfan]

Thanks!  I love your analysis, especially your point about consistency.  This was McM's problem all year — beating good teams and then collapsing with poor ones.  If we revert to form in the playoffs, as you note, we won't be in the game for long. But at least we got the championship.

Incidentally, congratulations on your CUA women.  They came out of nowhere and took it all.  (Don't forget that two of your players are former McM students, who transferred when Coach Rainbolt got the job with you!)

[Ron Boerger]

Interesting parallel between the ASC and the SCAC ... both regular-season champions (teams with best record) had but two losses, both to the same team (19-8 McMurry and 18-9 Centre, respectively).   The difference is that there's no question that 25-2 UMHB will get a pool C; with the SCAC being so much weaker overall, 25-2 Birmingham-Southern is by all accounts on the bubble.  Had Centre won the SCAC tourney, they would have even had the same record as McM ...

Hoping for a good game between UMHB and Trinity, which is what Pat and company project in the first round.  TU's reeled off 11 in a row after a 9-8 start; they're a young team with some size but keeping up with the Cru on their home floor is going to be a monumental challenge. 

[CUAfan]

Thanks!  I love your analysis, especially your point about consistency.  This was McM's problem all year — beating good teams and then collapsing with poor ones.  If we revert to form in the playoffs, as you note, we won't be in the game for long. But at least we got the championship.

Incidentally, congratulations on your CUA women.  They came out of nowhere and took it all.  (Don't forget that two of your players are former McM students, who transferred when Coach Rainbolt got the job with you!)

Flags fly forever!

[cover2]

Bracket is out:  UMHB hosts Trinity with McMurry and Whitworth on the other side.

[McM Blue Devil]

A very interesting pod.  Trinity will give UMHB a game and the coaching match up between these two is interesting.  In the other game can McM keep their momentum rolling against what looks like a good Whitworth team?