MBB: American Southwest Conference

CUAfan · December 19, 2006, 04:01:01 PM

In my opinion, McDonald belongs in that conversation too, even if he is a sophomore. If he can carry CUA now that Maxwell is done for the year, he deserves a look.

gccfan · December 19, 2006, 04:25:22 PM

Well, first of all I want to let you all know that I'm a bit of a stats geek. When I asked my question about player of the year I thought it would do me good to do a little research. I couple of weeks back in SI, they had an article on their player ratings and actually included the formula for how they do it. Anyways I took that formula and plugged in the latest stats I could find for the top 4 or 5 players from each team in the league. The value factors in FG%, 3FG%, FT%, ORB, DRB, AST, TO, BLK, STL, PTS, made shots and missed shots. So it's pretty comprehensive. I think I remember LeBron having a rating in the low 60s or something like that. Anyways, here is the top 10 in the ASC so far.

1. Chris Isom, ETBU - 49.91
2. Mardochee Jean, HSU - 48.25
3. Joel McDonald, CUA - 45.22
4. Kendrick Johnson, HPU - 45.00
5. Martin Salinas, UTD - 44.15
6. Zach Pickelman, HSU - 43.00
7. Habeeb Kareem, UO - 40.13
8. Josh Johnson, LC - 39.89
9. Timothy Broomfield, MC - 39.63
10. Jonathan Young, SU - 39.00

Quote from: CUAfan on December 19, 2006, 04:01:01 PM
In my opinion, McDonald belongs in that conversation too, even if he is a sophomore. If he can carry CUA now that Maxwell is done for the year, he deserves a look.

It appears that you are very right in throwing McDonald's name in the hat CUA Fan

CUAfan · December 19, 2006, 04:34:20 PM

I did much the same thing with that formula when I got it, but I subbed minutes played for team games played. That way players whose production is largely due to playing time get brought down a little, while more productive players who get less time get a boost. Though, I was testing it on last year's numbers to see how it worked and hadn't run any from this year. Been too busy for that anyway.

And I think that POY should be separated a bit from team performance, since its a player award, not a team one.

CUAfan · December 19, 2006, 04:37:59 PM

One problem with my method, though, is that I've noticed that ETBU, when operating the stat program the conference uses, doesn't keep track of substitutions, so minutes played will be off, especially for ETBU's players...though I'd guess that the effect is lessened when they play elsewhere.

Bearkat00 · December 19, 2006, 05:04:16 PM

When you first approached this question, I had already made up my mind. Now that you've shown this formula, it just helped confirmed that. My feeling is that Isom is the player of the year if the season were to end right now, with the thinking that w/o him, I don't think ETBU wins a game. I haven't seen ETBU play, but based on stats, it looks as if everything goes through him. I realize the arguement that his team doesn't have a winning record, but I still have to stick with him. While those other players are star players and key to their teams' success, I don't think any of those teams rely on their players as much as ETBU relies on Isom.

MC fans - what are your thoughts on MC's trip to California? Do they match up well with John Hopkins?

MC Boy · December 20, 2006, 01:23:53 AM

Well I think MC macthes up well against a good John Hopkins team. It will be a big test for Broomfield, Winford, and Evans to try and stop this Nawrocki kid who is averaging 14 pts and 11rebs a game. I aslo think that MC needs to dictate the tempo and play their game to have a good chance to win. Another factor is that John Hopkins last game was Dec. 9 so they might be a little bit rusty so that will be good for MC. The key players like Gene Hunt and Johnathan Collins must use their quickness to create foul trouble and get others involved. I think MC wins by at least 10. Go CHOCS!

Bearkat00 · December 20, 2006, 02:46:46 PM

MC Boy - not to change the subject to quick, but why did your baseball coach resign? I see to explore business ventures, but was there pressure from the higher ups?

balls a dunkin · December 20, 2006, 10:27:57 PM

Quote from: Bearkat00 on December 20, 2006, 02:46:46 PM
MC Boy - not to change the subject to quick, but why did your baseball coach resign? I see to explore business ventures, but was there pressure from the higher ups?

no pressure from anyone. all his decision

Bearkat00 · December 21, 2006, 09:34:31 AM

That's great to hear. I had an opportunity to meet him a few times and seemed like he was a great man and coach.

Back to bball - looks like that final playoff spot on the east side is going to be a battle between ETBU and LETU, with UT-Tyler being a spoiler!

gccfan · December 21, 2006, 12:39:36 PM

Has anybody heard of any possible transfers at the break that could be difference making?

career_kid · December 21, 2006, 12:42:35 PM

Bearkat, Tyler isn't eligible for the ASC Championship this year.

Bearkat00 · December 21, 2006, 01:18:05 PM

Yes, but they still play spoiler in games with ETBU and LETU. You look at the remaining schedules for both teams, since ETBU and LETU are travel partners, and you figure both teams will go into each game the same. For example, MC & UTD should be the favorite over both ETBU and LETU when they play. Therefore, key games will be against a team like UT-Tyler , whose own record doesn't count, yet beating them is key in making the playoffs. For LETU and ETBU, you would want UT-Tyler to beat Ozarks and LC. I hope that makes sense and if anyone else can explain it better or understands what I am trying to get at, then by all means chime in!

Merry Christmas all!

CUAfan · December 21, 2006, 01:25:31 PM

Bearkat, your point about Isom is valid, as far as it goes. But his numbers could be due what could be dubbed the "watcher effect" (think the Lakers last season with Kobe). If, as his stats make it look, Isom is really that much better than his teammates, his numbers will be inflated as his teammates try to feed him the ball since he's the best on the team. Now, I haven't seen him play, but when looking at the stats one has to keep in mind the quality of his supporting cast and the effect that has on those stats. Kevin Garnett has (I think) better numbers than Tim Duncan, but Duncan has two All-Star caliber guards on the team, so his stats don't necessarily reflect his talent level.

All that aside, I do think that stats should have a greater influence on POY than team record.

etbualum · December 21, 2006, 05:38:39 PM

ETBU could push LETU for that playoff spot but it will be tough unless they gain a split in the season series.

As for the supporting cast due to grades and quitters etbu has lost several starters when the season began. The supporting cast is starting to gain some steam. Isom is the best all around player in the conference. He is the second leading rebounder, and third leading scorer with every team coming in and knowing he is the focus. I understand the "watch effect" but his numbers are suffering because of the attention that has been paid to him. UMHB doubled and tripled him with regularity. MCM was doing the same thing and when Endres and Whitmire hit a couple 3s he got a lot more room. I understand we have a lot of great players in this conference but if I am drafting a team of ASC player then I am selecting Chris with the first pick.

Bearkat00 · December 22, 2006, 06:45:21 PM

etbualum, I agree with you. I know a couple of people over in Marshall and they tell me that he is regularly double team and triple teamed. From my understanding, LETU may be the only team that has played him straight up. I know what ETBU is going through with a whole new supporting cast. It seems that LETU does that every year except this year, with 3 starters returning from last year's team.

I hope everyone has a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.