MBB: American Southwest Conference

[CUAfan]

Hey guys...back after a much longer than expected hiatus.  Back with stats too (I *have* to find a way to do this stuff for a living). I ranked the ASC top to bottom using a method of projecting a team's expected winning percentage that I got from Dean Oliver's book Basketball on Paper. I also did each team's offensive and defensive points-per-possession, which are included below. Just in case anyone wonders, this includes all games, so teams that played D1 teams end up lower than they would otherwise be...the method's not perfect. Just my several cents added to the discussion.

Team - Projected Winning % - Offensive Efficiency - Defensive Efficiency
Mississippi College - .723 - 113.63 - 96.83
Mary Hardin-Baylor - .659 - 102.21 - 90.25
Texas-Dallas - .651 - 105.19 - 96.41
Concordia-Texas - .583 - 106.50 - 101.42
Texas-Tyler - .530 - 101.84 - 98.67
LeTourneau - .515 - 98.40 - 97.51
McMurry - .501 - 99.59 - 99.50
Sul Ross State - .475 - 102.00 - 104.57
Hardin-Simmons - .463 - 97.00 - 98.34
Howard Payne - .420 - 95.34 - 99.52
East Texas Baptist - .407 - 95.09 - 102.40
Ozarks - .380 - 102.31 - 109.45
Louisiana College - .379 - 97.21 - 107.81
Texas Lutheran - .240 - 88.87 - 104.52
Schreiner - .190 - 95.10 - 113.04

[#1ascfanman]

CUAfan.  I like your post, always interesting to see things in a different light.

My predictions for Saturday:
Tyler over ETBU-Correct
HPU over CUA-Incorrect
UMHB over SRSU-Correct
McM over TLU-Correct
Dallas over LeT.-Correct
LC over Ozarks-Correct
HSU over Schreiner-Correct

Brings me to 58-31

What another excting weekend in the ASC.  LC goes on the road to Ozarks and wins a must win game to stay alive.  The sweep over ETBU puts us in great shape because we have the tie breaker over them.  We have to win these next two at home boys!!!!!

[#1ascfanman]

I will go ahead and make my prediction for Tuesday.  This is a tough one because both teams are not playing very well right now, but I am going to go with LeT over ETBU on Tuesday night.

[CUAfan]

Thanks, ascfanman. I was wondering, are you basing your predictions on your gut feeling or do you look at the last few games' box scores? Or something else entirely?


I'll re-run my numbers later this week using just conference games. I want to see how HSU (and everyone else) grades out without the D1 opponents skewing their numbers.

[Ralph Turner]

Thanks, ascfanman. I was wondering, are you basing your predictions on your gut feeling or do you look at the last few games' box scores? Or something else entirely?


I'll re-run my numbers later this week using just conference games. I want to see how HSU (and everyone else) grades out without the D1 opponents skewing their numbers.

Interesting numbers, CUAfan.  I wish that McMurry were the #3 seed in the West!

The calculations by pabegg on the Pool C boards are his best guess using the in-region games that the committee sees.

Practically speaking, the only team that gets a Pool C bid, if they fail to win the tourney, is UMHB.

[jmnaseum]

Are the West tourney seeds nailed down?

UMHB
CUA
HSU
HPU

[Ralph Turner]

Are the West tourney seeds nailed down?
UMHB
CUA
HSU
HPU

Not mathematically for HPU, yet.
Their magic number over McMurry is "one".

[#1ascfanman]

Actually I do look at past games and box scores to get some insight.  I don't know if it helps much but I use that and gut feeling for the most part.

[gccfan]

Well, it has been awhile since I have posted... mostly because the YellowJackets are bumming me out.  I do have one observation to make though and that is that UT-Tyler seems to have a belief that they can win any game now.  It will be interesting this week as they go to both LC and MC, but they have done a great job of finding ways to win.  Now if the Jackets can just win both games this week and get ozarks to beat ETBU on Saturday all will be well in the world

[cp1123]

Can you listen to LC's games online?

[#1wildcatfan]

No, you can not listen to listen games online at LC. Great win for the CATS this past Saturday. It is the first time in the past 6 years we have won over there. Big win for us. We now hold the tie breaker over ETBU for the finally 4th spot. LC really needs to win these last two at home this week but they way we have been playing at home I scared of the outcome. We need to go 2-0 but I have a feeling we are going to split. Good luck CATS!!!

[Ralph Turner]

Can you listen to LC's games online?

If you don't have a local radio station on which you can buy time for the games, then you might want to consider going with Chitwood Sports.

Concordia and ETBU do their games on the internet.

Do you have a loyal fan who would travel to the away games?

At this level it may be more about the love of the team than the glamour of the job.

I want to thank all of the broadcast crews that I have heard this year.  It sure is fun spending time at night listening to a ballgame!

[CUAfan]

My picks for the Tuesday and the weekend, going off what my numbers tell me should happen. And no, I'm not trying to steal your thunder ascfanman. 

Today
LETU over ETBU

Thursday
CTX over MCM
HPU over TLU
UTT over LC
SRSU over SU
MC over UTD
LETU over UO
UMHB over HSU

Saturday
MC over UTT
UMHB over MCM
UTD over LC
HPU over SU
CTX over HSU
ETBU over UO
SRSU over TLU

If it plays out that way, it makes the tournament field UMHB, CTX, HSU, and HPU from the West and MC, UTD, UTT, and either ETBU or LETU (they tie by W-L record, I don't know who gets the tiebreaker). UTD and UTT also tie, and I don't know who owns that one either.

[gccfan]

The tiebreaker in the East goes like this... for LETU to get in they must win both games, ETBU must lose both games and LC has to split.  If all three teams end up with the same record LC has the tiebreaker.  LC has the head-to-head tie breaker over ETBU.  LETU has the head-to-head tie breaker against LC.  ETBU has the head-to-head tie breaker over LETU.  Confused yet:) 

LeTourneau also has their games online with Chitwood sports.

[chemprof]

Dispite ETBU's loss to UT-Tyler, they are playing well.  As it turns out that game was largely determined by a referee's calls.  I expect ETBU to win at LeT tonight.