WBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletics Association

[pointlem]

Happy Calvin Guy on the other board has graciously wished Hope's men well, so I'll reciprocate and wish Calvin's women well this weekend.  If Calvin and Hope women can both win this weekend, perhaps we could all dream of a West Michigan rematch a week from Saturday. 

[sac]

If LaRoche is anything like Juniata was for Hope a couple years ago, Calvin will win that without much trouble.

A little early for that shtick, isnt' it?

I think sac is being straight-up here; Massey has Calvin as a 23-point favorite.

Calvin's potential second game against Chicago, though, would be much tougher if it happens. The d3hoops.com poll and Massey have Chicago as #6. Massey has the game as a virtual draw, with Calvin about a 1-point favorite by virtue of home court advantage.

The plus side is that Chicago doesn't appear to be nearly as good at stealing the ball as Hope.

Yes I was.  I was at the first round Hope/Juniata match-up at Baldwin-Wallace in 2008 and it was a pretty big mismatch.   

http://www.miaa.org/wbb/stats/0708/08ncaa01.htm

[Mr. Ypsi]

Just submitted my entry in the d3hoops.com bracket contest.  I've got Hope downing Calvin in yet another rematch, and (although one year too late for the Snikkers-Solari showdown I'd always hoped for) I have Hope and IWU meeting in the title game.

I'll leave it to your imagination which one I picked for the walnut-and-bronze!

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Just submitted my entry in the d3hoops.com bracket contest.  I've got Hope downing Calvin in yet another rematch, and (although one year too late for the Snikkers-Solari showdown I'd always hoped for) I have Hope and IWU meeting in the title game.

I'll leave it to your imagination which one I picked for the walnut-and-bronze!

The one with experience playing in the national championship game at the Shirk?     

[Mr. Ypsi]

Just submitted my entry in the d3hoops.com bracket contest.  I've got Hope downing Calvin in yet another rematch, and (although one year too late for the Snikkers-Solari showdown I'd always hoped for) I have Hope and IWU meeting in the title game.

I'll leave it to your imagination which one I picked for the walnut-and-bronze!

The one with experience playing in the national championship game at the Shirk?     

Touche - you cruel SOB!   I should respond that Hope's experience consists of LOSING the title game at the Shirk, but I'll take the high road.

I'm getting a real complex about UWSP.  Last year they knocked both the women's and men's Titans out of the tourney.  This year I've got them again knocking out the men (after the men upset the Tommies in St. Paul), but I've got the women getting revenge in the sectional.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

I put together the following stat comparison of Hope & DePauw:

Offense	% 2pt	% 3pt	% FT
Hope	49.3	35.8	68.3
DePauw	48.6	32.5	66.4
Defense	% 2pt	% 3pt
Hope	32.0	27.9
DePauw	40.3	30.8
Rebounding	Team	Opp	Margin
Hope	41.5	33.9	7.6
DePauw	42.5	28.8	13.7
Scoring	Team	Opp	Margin
Hope	74.3	47.6	26.7
DePauw	73.5	51.0	22.5
3 point shooting	Attempts	Made	Made/game
Hope	500	179	6.4
DePauw	455	148	5.3
Blocks	Total	per game
Hope	145	5.2
DePauw	65	2.3
Steals	Total	per game
Hope	378	13.5
DePauw	271	9.7
Turnovers	Total	per game
Hope	479	17.1
DePauw	354	12.6
Assists	Total	per game
Hope	438	15.6
DePauw	442	15.8
Assist/Turnover
Hope	0.91
DePauw	1.25

[Pat Coleman]

"It is an embarrassment that Snikkers, who was named D-III national player of the year on the eve of leading the Flying Dutch to a runner-up finish in the national title game last season, wasn't the MVP of her own league."

Why wouldn't the embarassed party here be the people who made her poy when she hadn't won the lesser award first.

I know I'm backing up a day here but something to keep in mind is that in most conferences, the coaches for for their POY or MVP or MOP based solely on conference play. For a team that advances deep into the playoffs, that amounts to about half the schedule.

[realist]

"It is an embarrassment that Snikkers, who was named D-III national player of the year on the eve of leading the Flying Dutch to a runner-up finish in the national title game last season, wasn't the MVP of her own league."

Why wouldn't the embarassed party here be the people who made her poy when she hadn't won the lesser award first.

I know I'm backing up a day here but something to keep in mind is that in most conferences, the coaches for for their POY or MVP or MOP based solely on conference play. For a team that advances deep into the playoffs, that amounts to about half the schedule.

The MIAA coaches vote on the MVP and All MIAA teams on the Monday after the confeerence tournaments.  According to the information I have the awards are based solely on the 14/16 conference games, and this is reflected in the conference stats.  Pre., and post conference play are not factors in these awards.

Pat.  My quote was from an article in the GR Press.  The writer was voicing an opinion about Ms. Shikkers being poy last year, and how the mIAA should be embarassed because she wasn't MIAA mvp.  She wasn't either last year or this year because the voters made Verkaik mvp.

[sac]

Here's a look at Efficiency ratings for the Calvin pod with the warning that I don't usually do EFF for the women so I have no context of what these numbers really mean relative to the rest of the D3 woman's field.

EFF ratings are points per 100 possessions.


Offense

Chicago	101.4
Hanover	100.2
Calvin	94.9
LaRoche	89.4

Defense

Calvin	69.1
LaRoche	71.1
Chicago	80.9
Hanover	80.9

My eyes tell me Calvin's a pretty great defensive team for D3, so their number doesn't surprise me.

Combined

Calvin	225.8
Chicago	220.5
Hanover	219.3
LaRoche	218.3

These kinds of ratings are really only useful when you take into account schedule strength.  Masseyratings.com has its faults but its really all we have.

Schedule played ratings

Chicago	#28
Calvin	#57
Hanover	#127
LaRoche	#330

Looks to me like Calvin will be a pretty solid favorite to beat LaRoche.  LaRoche has trouble scoring points and playing a great defensive team like Calvin seems like a bad mix, their poor schedule relative to Calvin's will probably come home to roost in this one.  Chicago looks to be a slight favorite over Hanover, again the team with better numbers and the better schedule played should prevail, in honesty though on a neutral court that could be a toss-up.

Calvin should be considered a slight favorite over Chicago, the home court could be the advantage.  Calvin would also be the favorite over Hanover.   Chicago/Hanover would be pretty solid favorites over LaRoche.

[sac]

Here's a look at Efficiency ratings for the Hope pod with the warning that I don't usually do EFF for the women so I have no context of what these numbers really mean relative to the rest of the D3 woman's field.

EFF ratings are points per 100 possessions.


Offense

DePauw	109.5
Denison	105.3
Hope	102.4
Washington	99.2

DePauw appears to be a really great offensive team for the D3 women's game.

Defense

Hope	65.5
Washington	75.7
DePauw	76.6
Denison	77.4

My guess is Hope's eff is probably in the top 5 or 10 nationally.

Combined

Hope	236.9
DePauw	232.9
Denison	227.9
Washington	223.5

These kinds of ratings are really only useful when you take into account schedule strength.  Masseyratings.com has its faults but its really all we have.

Schedule played ratings

Washington	#31
Hope	#63
DePauw	#110
Denison	#181

Calculating these numbers for this bracket tempted me to do the whole field just to see how ridiculous this bracket might really be, but I think I'll pass.

Hope and DePauw looks to be a match-up of a great offense vs a great defense, I think Hope might be a slight favorite, their numbers are a little more solid with the slightly tougher schedule.

Denison has the better numbers, Washington has played the better schedule, in the end the teams thats played the better schedule usually wins out but its another close one, slight edge to Washington.

Either of those two games could be considered toss-ups.

Overall I think you make Hope the slight favorite to survive, but this pod should be very competitive and could legitimately go to any of the four teams.  The Saturday games whatever the pairings should be a good one.  It looks to me like the pecking order might go Hope, DePauw, Washington then Denison. 

We will see, this looks more like a sweet 16 grouping than a round 1/2 pod.

[David Collinge]

We will see, this looks more like a sweet 16 grouping than a round 1/2 pod.

And that's a real shame from the perspective of Denison, because unlike the other three very successful programs, DU is a newcomer to the upper echelon of D3 and has never reached the Sweet Sixteen.  I feel like they did all they could to give themselves a very good shot at that goal this season, and instead got sent on the road to a bracket they have probably no better than a 1-in-5 chance of surviving, and probably much lower when Hope's immense home court advantage is taken into account. 

Those associated with Hope, DePauw, and Wash U. are probably planning or at least hoping for a national title this season; Denison's goal was to reach the second weekend and then play with house money.  And after 28 consecutive wins, that goal looks like a longshot.  And that's a shame.

[gohope]

We will see, this looks more like a sweet 16 grouping than a round 1/2 pod.

And that's a real shame from the perspective of Denison, because unlike the other three very successful programs, DU is a newcomer to the upper echelon of D3 and has never reached the Sweet Sixteen.  I feel like they did all they could to give themselves a very good shot at that goal this season, and instead got sent on the road to a bracket they have probably no better than a 1-in-5 chance of surviving, and probably much lower when Hope's immense home court advantage is taken into account. 

Those associated with Hope, DePauw, and Wash U. are probably planning or at least hoping for a national title this season; Denison's goal was to reach the second weekend and then play with house money.  And after 28 consecutive wins, that goal looks like a longshot.  And that's a shame.

Welcome to the "wisdom" of the NCAA.  We have felt their pain MANY a time!   

[Dark Knight]

Looks to me like Calvin will be a pretty solid favorite to beat LaRoche.  LaRoche has trouble scoring points and playing a great defensive team like Calvin seems like a bad mix, their poor schedule relative to Calvin's will probably come home to roost in this one.  Chicago looks to be a slight favorite over Hanover, again the team with better numbers and the better schedule played should prevail, in honesty though on a neutral court that could be a toss-up.

Calvin should be considered a slight favorite over Chicago, the home court could be the advantage.  Calvin would also be the favorite over Hanover.   Chicago/Hanover would be pretty solid favorites over LaRoche.

These judgments line up pretty well with Massey's power ratings:

Chicago	21.9
Calvin	20.4
Hanover	13.5
LaRoche	-1.2

I was curious whether any of these teams have been getting "hot" at the end of the season, so I computed Massey power for the last 5 games played by each team. I guess it's not too surprising that they are all picking up their level of play a little:

Chicago	22.9
Calvin	22.4
Hanover	16.3
LaRoche	-0.9

Update: Same thing for the other pod.

	Power	Last5
Hope	25.6	26.2
Washington	20.8	15.3
DePauw	17.8	14.7
Denison	14.0	14.1

I guess the biggest surprises are that DePauw and especially Washington have been slipping. Hope looks like a pretty strong favorite to emerge from this pod and it doesn't much matter who they play.

Another point of interest: it looks as though Chicago would be a significantly tougher opponent for Calvin than anyone in the "Pod of Death" will be for Hope.

[oldknight]

As predicted, KnightSlappy did an analysis of the four teams in the regional being hosted by Calvin this weekend. KS does his usual stellar and thorough job, complete with charts and graphs. There's even bonus video of Calvin's last second win against Hope in the conference final. For those of you who may be unaware of his blog click the link below. +k to KS.

http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/

[oldknight]

If you didn't hear Hoopsville tonight I recommend it. Dave McHugh was softly but openly critical of the committee's decision in its placement of teams in the Hope regional. The show also featured a discussion with former Marymount coach Bill Finney who predicts that Hope--despite the daunting road it faces--will win it all. Finney also predicts a Calvin/Hope matchup in the quarterfinal round but acknowledges that the host site for sectionals is key. Check the link below and you can pick up McHugh's comments starting at the 19 minute mark and Finney's (on the Hope "pod of death") at the 44 minute mark.

http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13069967