WBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletics Association

[bballforever]

Well said Flying Dutch Fan.   

[KnightSlappy]

This is not a personal attack, but that response is simply ridiculous.  Have you ever been invovled in playing in a game against a highly ranked team?  Following your logic, a team playing in game 1 of the season approaches that game with the exact same intensity as they would a national championship game.  Throw all the stats you want at that one - humans are affected by emotions - and it does have an impact on performance.

Fear not, I would never allow the words of a Hope supporter to harm me physically, mentally, or emotionally.

Let me clarify what I think your argument is by laying out the following scenarios:
---
This year’s Calvin and Albion teams play against each other in 100 independent games as #1 vs. unranked.

This year’s Calvin and Albion teams play against each other in 100 independent games as #15 vs. unranked.

This year’s Calvin and Albion teams play against each other in 100 independent games as unranked vs. unranked.
---
You’re suggesting that Calvin would have the best winning percentage when labeled as an unranked team, the second best win percentage when labeled as the #15 team, and the worst win percentage when labeled as the #1 team. Is that what you’re saying?

[Roundball999]

This is not a personal attack, but that response is simply ridiculous.  Have you ever been invovled in playing in a game against a highly ranked team?  Following your logic, a team playing in game 1 of the season approaches that game with the exact same intensity as they would a national championship game.  Throw all the stats you want at that one - humans are affected by emotions - and it does have an impact on performance.

Let me clarify what I think your argument is by laying out the following scenarios:
---
This year's Calvin and Albion teams play against each other in 100 independent games as #1 vs. unranked.

This year's Calvin and Albion teams play against each other in 100 independent games as #15 vs. unranked.

This year's Calvin and Albion teams play against each other in 100 independent games as unranked vs. unranked.
---
You're suggesting that Calvin would have the best winning percentage when labeled as an unranked team, the second best win percentage when labeled as the #15 team, and the worst win percentage when labeled as the #1 team. Is that what you're saying?

Maybe, maybe not, your example is oversimplified and doesn't represent real world because there are other variables.  Some teams might be intimidated playing a #1 and concede more easily.  Others with more toughness and better coaching might play harder than they would playing an unranked team.  These are the teams that become a greater danger to the #1 ranked opponent, simply by virtue of the ranking.

But in any case, it is "different" playing a highly ranked team.  To think otherwise is to deny human nature and human emotions.

Have you ever played a team sport and played a top ranked team?  If so, it would be quite obvious to you, simply from the experience.  Do you think Calvin plays Hope just like they play any other team?  Or that the greater fan support that comes with a rivalry game or playing a top ranked opponent plays absolutely no role at all in the outcome? 

College women, or any athletes for that matter, are not robots that play every game in every situation exactly the same way.  Human beings respond to the situation.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

This is not a personal attack, but that response is simply ridiculous.  Have you ever been invovled in playing in a game against a highly ranked team?  Following your logic, a team playing in game 1 of the season approaches that game with the exact same intensity as they would a national championship game.  Throw all the stats you want at that one - humans are affected by emotions - and it does have an impact on performance.

Let me clarify what I think your argument is by laying out the following scenarios:
---
This year's Calvin and Albion teams play against each other in 100 independent games as #1 vs. unranked.

This year's Calvin and Albion teams play against each other in 100 independent games as #15 vs. unranked.

This year's Calvin and Albion teams play against each other in 100 independent games as unranked vs. unranked.
---
You're suggesting that Calvin would have the best winning percentage when labeled as an unranked team, the second best win percentage when labeled as the #15 team, and the worst win percentage when labeled as the #1 team. Is that what you're saying?

Nope - you missed it by a mile.

I'm not really saying anything about the outcome of those games - and I don't think the cliché of "a bullseye on their back" is either.  What I'm saying is that there is a different intensity, emotion, and hype when you play against the #1 team in the nation than if you play an average game.  Same as those things are very different when Hope plays Calvin versus when Hope plays anyone else.  Some players respond positively to this and their performance increases while others are distracted by it and their perfromance suffers.

Think about the days leading up to a game versus the #1 team.  The local media will most likely have articles or coverage prior to the match-up.  The unranked school's website / SID will undoubtedly hype it - partly to try to drive higher attendance.  People around campus will be talking about it.  Posting up rates will increase.  The potential upset carries even more coverage and recognition - even the front page of D3Hoops could be in play! 

All of this is not lost on the players.  They are very aware of it all, hence the reason coaches sometimes have to work hard to get them to stop focusing on it, and simply focus on the game.  There was a reason Norman Dale had his guys use a tape measure to confirm the height of the rim and the court dimensions.  The upcoming game was huge - but the game itself was the same.

Interestingly, the same struggle can actually exist for a team who recently became #1, and again the coach needs to get the focus back to the game.

[KnightSlappy]

This is not a personal attack, but that response is simply ridiculous.  Have you ever been invovled in playing in a game against a highly ranked team?  Following your logic, a team playing in game 1 of the season approaches that game with the exact same intensity as they would a national championship game.  Throw all the stats you want at that one - humans are affected by emotions - and it does have an impact on performance.

Let me clarify what I think your argument is by laying out the following scenarios:
---
This year's Calvin and Albion teams play against each other in 100 independent games as #1 vs. unranked.

This year's Calvin and Albion teams play against each other in 100 independent games as #15 vs. unranked.

This year's Calvin and Albion teams play against each other in 100 independent games as unranked vs. unranked.
---
You're suggesting that Calvin would have the best winning percentage when labeled as an unranked team, the second best win percentage when labeled as the #15 team, and the worst win percentage when labeled as the #1 team. Is that what you're saying?

Nope - you missed it by a mile.

I'm not really saying anything about the outcome of those games - and I don't think the cliché of "a bullseye on their back" is either.  What I'm saying is that there is a different intensity, emotion, and hype when you play against the #1 team in the nation than if you play an average game.  Same as those things are very different when Hope plays Calvin versus when Hope plays anyone else.  Some players respond positively to this and their performance increases while others are distracted by it and their perfromance suffers.

Think about the days leading up to a game versus the #1 team.  The local media will most likely have articles or coverage prior to the match-up.  The unranked school's website / SID will undoubtedly hype it - partly to try to drive higher attendance.  People around campus will be talking about it.  Posting up rates will increase.  The potential upset carries even more coverage and recognition - even the front page of D3Hoops could be in play! 

All of this is not lost on the players.  They are very aware of it all, hence the reason coaches sometimes have to work hard to get them to stop focusing on it, and simply focus on the game.  There was a reason Norman Dale had his guys use a tape measure to confirm the height of the rim and the court dimensions.  The upcoming game was huge - but the game itself was the same.

Interestingly, the same struggle can actually exist for a team who recently became #1, and again the coach needs to get the focus back to the game.

So, going back to my examples, if we replace "Albion" with "a random assortment of unranked but non-terrible teams", we would expect to see Calvin come away with an indistinguishable win percentage in all three instances but perhaps a larger spread between their highs and lows when they're more highly ranked?

That is to say, if Calvin's labeled as an unranked team, then maybe they win their games by an average of 10 points with the high being +23 points and the low being -3 points. But when they're labeled as the #1 team in the country, they win their games by an average of 10 points with the high being +33 and the low being -13 (numbers invented for the sake of discussion).

More accurate?

[Flying Dutch Fan]

KS - stop trying to numerically or statistically describe this - it can't be done.  To do so would be like trying to numerically define the difference between:

a.  looking at your spouse on your wedding day as he/she says "I do"

and

b. looking at them leave their dirty underwear in the middle of the floor 

Just admit they are different experiences, and that as a human you will react differently to them and it will affect you.

[KnightSlappy]

they are different experiences, and that as a human you will react differently to them and it will affect you.

I agree with the above statement. People are not robots and will physically react differently to changing environments.

So, either the changed emotional state affects the outcome of games or it doesn't -- that's what I'm interested in. Outcomes of games.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

So, either the changed emotional state affects the outcome of games or it doesn't

Agreed 

Seriously though, how much affect it has is probably pretty hard to predict - just like when someone will go on a "hot streak" is hard to predict (yes, I actully went there). 

Thinking more about the #1 team bullseye - I think the inital affect of playing that #1 team may be more on the fan base.  More fans show-up, students are more involved, the place is a little more "electric" than usual.  Certainly the underdog team has to feed off that a little.

[ziggy]

So, either the changed emotional state affects the outcome of games or it doesn't

Agreed 

Seriously though, how much affect it has is probably pretty hard to predict - just like when someone will go on a "hot streak" is hard to predict (yes, I actully went there). 

Thinking more about the #1 team bullseye - I think the inital affect of playing that #1 team may be more on the fan base.  More fans show-up, students are more involved, the place is a little more "electric" than usual.  Certainly the underdog team has to feed off that a little.

The implication I'm having a hard time dealing with in this discussion is that the impact on the underdog is always, or at least disproportionately, positive. Riding the proverbial emotional wave can just as easily lead to being "too amped up" or prone to "trying to do too much".

Sports narratives are heavily influenced by confirmation bias. When a heavy favorite loses many are quick to chalk it up as the result of a "bullseye" or some other external factor. Statistically speaking, even heavy favorites are expected to lose eventually. If we look at Massey's predictions and see that he makes one team an 80% favorite we would say that team is a heavy favorite. That is true but over a 20-game stretch the probability of winning all 20 games as an 80% favorite is just over 1%.

Big upsets are fun because we don't know when or where they will occur. But we know they will occur based on more than empirical evidence.

[Happy Calvin Guy]

Calvin's women's roster is up. No surprises that I see but a third Verkaik (Kally) graces the roster.

http://www.calvin.edu/sports/womens/basketball/roster.htm

The Verkaik talent pipeline is only rivaled by the Kamp family on the volleyball side of things.  Gotta love those devoted Calvin families that crank out tall athletic kids. 

Congrats to Coach Ross and the Knights on the #1 ranking.  Should be a fun season.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

The implication I'm having a hard time dealing with in this discussion is that the impact on the underdog is always, or at least disproportionately, positive. Riding the proverbial emotional wave can just as easily lead to being "too amped up" or prone to "trying to do too much".

Very true - but that can also be an issue for the #1 team wearing the bullseye.  Every game they play on the road they potentially face a larger than normal, louder than normal, more amped up opposing crowd.  That too has its toll on the players.

[sflzman]

Kinda an interesting one here.  Alma won their scrimmage (normal timing, etc.) 109-102 today.  And their leading scorer from last year (who missed most of conference play with concussion issues), Grace Wheeler, left with another head injury.  No word on her status. 

Had a couple freshmen that looked pretty impressive, but when you score that many points everyone looks somewhat decent...

[bballforever]

Any other updates on scrimmages and how the teams looked?

[sflzman]

Kinda an interesting one here.  Alma won their scrimmage (normal timing, etc.) 109-102 today.  And their leading scorer from last year (who missed most of conference play with concussion issues), Grace Wheeler, left with another head injury.  No word on her status. 

Had a couple freshmen that looked pretty impressive, but when you score that many points everyone looks somewhat decent...

Update on Wheeler.  Grade 2 concussion.  Looks to be out a couple weeks AT LEAST, if not longer, or potentially a career ender...

[Roundball999]

WBCA/USA Today Coaches poll is out:  http://www.wbca.org/blog/index.cfm/2012/10/30/20122013-PreSeason-DIII-Poll/

Calvin at #1, Hope #14.  Looks like Calvin has swept the preseason polls at #1.