WBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletics Association

[KnightSlappy]

Calvin and Hope are on opposite sides of the bracket. Do I smell a future Van Noord Arena championship game?

[Roundball999]

Calvin and Hope are on opposite sides of the bracket. Do I smell a future Van Noord Arena championship game?

What fun that would be!  But before that, I'm thinking how much fun it would be to see a Calvin - North Central matchup if the Lady Knights get past BW. Calvin's pressure and excellent offense vs a system team.  Better have a handful of score keepers 😁

Of course NCC would also have to get past Oshkosh, a very good team I understand.  Also a post oriented team making for contrasting styles for sure.

[wiz]

Calvin and Hope are on opposite sides of the bracket. Do I smell a future Van Noord Arena championship game?

What fun that would be!  But before that, I'm thinking how much fun it would be to see a Calvin - North Central matchup if the Lady Knights get past BW. Calvin's pressure and excellent offense vs a system team.  Better have a handful of score keepers 😁

Of course NCC would also have to get past Oshkosh, a very good team I understand.  Also a post oriented team making for contrasting styles for sure.

And, of course, Hope would need to find a way to get past Wheaton, if they make it that far.

[Roundball999]

Calvin and Hope are on opposite sides of the bracket. Do I smell a future Van Noord Arena championship game?

What fun that would be!  But before that, I'm thinking how much fun it would be to see a Calvin - North Central matchup if the Lady Knights get past BW. Calvin's pressure and excellent offense vs a system team.  Better have a handful of score keepers 😁

Of course NCC would also have to get past Oshkosh, a very good team I understand.  Also a post oriented team making for contrasting styles for sure.

And, of course, Hope would need to find a way to get past Wheaton, if they make it that far.

Of course, I'm not counting on anything with respect to Hope.  Too inconsistent.  I do think they have the talent to make a run but I think the Lady Knights have demonstrated more consistent high level play.

I was just commenting on what I thought would be a really enjoyable Calvin game to watch; hope it wasn't taken as assuming anything with respect to Hope. I surely wasn't. 

[pointlem]

I see that the NCAA has put #1 Thomas More and #2 St. Thomas both in Hope's quadrant . . . but, fortunately for Calvin, on the opposite side from them.  But Calvin has George Fox (likewise undefeated) in its quadrant.  Ergo, both schools (especially Hope)  have a very tough road to make it to Van Noord.

The first weekend looks challenging, but a bit less intimidating.  With the top three teams in their quarterfinal brackets, the potentially biggest challenges would come the next weekend, should they survive next weekend.  Hope, for example, would potentially have to defeat both the #2 and #1 teams to get to a Final Four . . . I'd say not likely this year, but anything is possible.

[almcguirejr]

Calvin senior, Breanna Verkaik,named MIAA MVP. Kayla Engelhard was also first team all conference.

http://www.miaa.org/landing/index

[wiz]

Calvin senior, Breanna Verkaik,named MIAA MVP. Kayla Engelhard was also first team all conference.

http://www.miaa.org/landing/index

Well deserved for both.  It has been and still is a pleasure watching them play this year.

[Dark Knight]

If all the favorites (according to Massey) win, calvin will play these teams, with this chance of winning (assuming the middle two games are at DePauw):

Baldwin Wallace (94%)
Oshkosh (80%)
DePauw (75%)
George Fox (38%)
Montclair St (81%)
St Thomas (66%)

That gives Calvin a 75% chance of getting to the sweet 16, 21% chance of getting to the final four, and 11% chance of winning a national championship.

Hope would face

Bethel (76%)
Wheaton (27%)
St Thomas (25%)
Thomas More (33%)
Tufts (37%)
Geo Fox (21%)

Assuming games are away or at neutral sites, that gives Hope a 21% chance of getting to the sweet 16, 2% chance of getting to the final 4, and 0.1% chance of a national championship.  (Hope has tougher games to play, and it doesn't have the benefit of four home games.)

There is a 0.1% chance of Hope-Calvin IV this season.

If there are upsets not involving Calvin or Hope, that would increase Calvin or Hope's chances, according to Massey.

[northb]

So you're saying there's a chance....

[Mr. Ypsi]

DK, IF the second weekend games are at DePauw, I'm astounded (and dubious) that Calvin would be that strongly favored over the host team.

[bballfan13]

Also, if Calvin and DePauw are in the Sweet 16 I don't think it will be at DePauw.  I think Calvin will host over them due to where they presumably finished in the regional rankings.

I also think the committee is going to have some hard discussions on what to do with this grouping with George Fox wins.  They will be looking at 2 flights to a midwest school (Calvin and DePauw pod winners) or 3 flights to George Fox.  George fox appears to be the #1 seed and would deserve to host with their record and SOS over Calvin but it could get interesting.

With that said there's still a lot of basketball to be played this weekend before we move on to anything else.

[Roundball999]

DK, IF the second weekend games are at DePauw, I'm astounded (and dubious) that Calvin would be that strongly favored over the host team.

I checked Massey as well.  DK has it right, win probability for Calvin at DePauw is 75%.  If Calvin hosts that game, Calvin win probability goes to 84%.

[Mr. Ypsi]

DK, IF the second weekend games are at DePauw, I'm astounded (and dubious) that Calvin would be that strongly favored over the host team.

I checked Massey as well.  DK has it right, win probability for Calvin at DePauw is 75%.  If Calvin hosts that game, Calvin win probability goes to 84%.

Oh, I wasn't dubious about DK's reporting - just of Massey's odds.  I'm dubious of ANY d3 team being a 75% favorite over DePauw in Greencastle - and that's for any team (DePauw or otherwise) in the last decade!  IWU faces them annually (an early season tourney of DePauw, IWU, WashU, and a 'victim to be named' ) - they are ALWAYS tough.

(I wonder if we could get Hope or Calvin as a regular in place of 'victim to be named'?  IWU was WAY down this year, but there have been years where such a tourney would be ALL top ten teams in the preseason poll!)

[Roundball999]

DK, IF the second weekend games are at DePauw, I'm astounded (and dubious) that Calvin would be that strongly favored over the host team.

I checked Massey as well.  DK has it right, win probability for Calvin at DePauw is 75%.  If Calvin hosts that game, Calvin win probability goes to 84%.

Oh, I wasn't dubious about DK's reporting - just of Massey's odds.  I'm dubious of ANY d3 team being a 75% favorite over DePauw in Greencastle - and that's for any team (DePauw or otherwise) in the last decade!  IWU faces them annually (an early season tourney of DePauw, IWU, WashU, and a 'victim to be named' ) - they are ALWAYS tough.

(I wonder if we could get Hope or Calvin as a regular in place of 'victim to be named'?  IWU was WAY down this year, but there have been years where such a tourney would be ALL top ten teams in the preseason poll!)

OK, I understand.  I've always felt Massey was amazingly accurate.... considering all the obvious limitations of a purely statistical approach when dealing with teams comprised of young folks and coached by humans

But given DePauw's performance in recent years, I fully understand your skepticism about the probabilities of a game with Calvin.  I haven't seen DePauw this year so all I can say is Calvin is very good and I hope we get to see this game occur, then we can revisit whether Massey was close or not.

[DBQ1965]

I also posted this on the men's side.

If the Calvin women win the first two rounds, is it likely the NCAA puts them on the road for one of the Regionals to reduce the chances of Calvin hosting all rounds?  And does that mean if the Calvin men get through the first two rounds, they have a good shot at hosting one of the men's Regionals?