WBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletics Association

[Roundball999]

Congratulations to both the Calvin Lady Knights and the Hope Flying Dutch for making it to the Sweet 16.  Not only did they win, but they both won convincingly.  Great job representing the MIAA, whose women's teams seemed to really step it up across the board this year.  Keep it going!

[Dark Knight]

With strong results both teams gained a little Massey power. Here are the remaining games for Calvin (assuming faves win, all games are at home):

DePauw (84%)
George Fox (51%)
Montclair St (85%)
St Thomas (63%)

That gives Calvin a 43% chance of the final four, 23% chance of national championship.

Hope would face

St Thomas (35%)
Thomas More (35%)
Tufts (46%)
George Fox (24%)

Now Massey says there is a 12% chance of getting to the final four and 1.3% chance of a national championship--quite a jump.

The chance for Hope-Calvin IV in the national finals is up to 2%. 

[Edit: Hope numbers corrected: see comment below. Not quite as impressive a jump for Hope.]

[Roundball999]

With strong results both teams gained a little Massey power. Here are the remaining games for Calvin (assuming faves win, all games are at home):

DePauw (84%)
George Fox (51%)
Montclair St (85%)
St Thomas (63%)

That gives Calvin a 43% chance of the final four, 23% chance of national championship.

Hope would face

St Thomas (55%)
Thomas More (54%)
Tufts (66%)
George Fox (42%)

Now Massey says there is a 30% chance of getting to the final four and 8% chance of a national championship--quite a jump.

The chance for Hope-Calvin IV in the national finals is up to 7%. 

I'm not getting the same probabilities for Hope on the Massey matchups.  For instance I'm seeing 35% win probability vs. St Thomas (neutral court) or 43% if Hope were to host.  Am I doing something wrong?

I realize Hope has the worst record of the remaining four teams (Thomas More, St Thomas, WashU) in its bracket for next weekend, is there any chance at all the Dutch would host?  I know travel miles and expenses, venue, revenue expectations and the like come in to play as well as merit and regional ranking but I don't fully understand the details.   

[pointlem]

With strong results both teams gained a little Massey power. Here are the remaining games for Calvin (assuming faves win, all games are at home):

DePauw (84%)
George Fox (51%)
Montclair St (85%)
St Thomas (63%)

That gives Calvin a 43% chance of the final four, 23% chance of national championship.

Hope would face

St Thomas (55%)
Thomas More (54%)
Tufts (66%)
George Fox (42%)

Now Massey says there is a 30% chance of getting to the final four and 8% chance of a national championship--quite a jump.

The chance for Hope-Calvin IV in the national finals is up to 7%. 

I'm not getting the same probabilities for Hope on the Massey matchups.  For instance I'm seeing 35% win probability vs. St Thomas (neutral court) or 43% if Hope were to host.  Am I doing something wrong?

I realize Hope has the worst record of the remaining four teams (Thomas More, St Thomas, WashU) in its bracket for next weekend, is there any chance at all the Dutch would host?  I know travel miles and expenses, venue, revenue expectations and the like come in to play as well as merit and regional ranking but I don't fully understand the details.

I'd wager Thomas More will host, Roundball999.  St. Thomas is more than 500 miles from the other three schools, which are a drive away from each other (so surely it won't be St. Thomas).  Thomas More is likely top seed, and has good local support.

[bballfan13]

Just announced that Calvin is hosting next weekend.

[BruinFan]

Just announced that Calvin is hosting next weekend.

Where did you find the announcement? thanks

[Roundball999]

Just announced that Calvin is hosting next weekend.

Looks like Montclair St. is hosting too.  The other two sites not yet identified on the bracket.

[Roundball999]

Just announced that Calvin is hosting next weekend.

Where did you find the announcement? thanks

On the NCAA interactive bracket.  Click on one of the upcoming games and it will show the site or TBD.  Thomas More is now showing as the third site, and Tufts as the last site.

[wiz]

Just announced that Calvin is hosting next weekend.

They certainly deserve it!

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Just announced that Calvin is hosting next weekend.

Where did you find the announcement? thanks

On the NCAA interactive bracket.  Click on one of the upcoming games and it will show the site or TBD.  Thomas More is now showing as the third site, and Tufts as the last site.

Or on D3hoops.com who had it before that website could get theirs updated

[Dark Knight]

Oshkosh is a defense-minded team, and the largest number of points they gave up in a regular-season game this season was 71, to Wisconsin-Stout. They gave up 82 to North Central, a team that plays "the system." They didn't have an answer for Calvin's many offensive threats, though.

91 points is the most Oshkosh has given up since 2008, to D-II St. Cloud.

[DBQ1965]

Officiating Saturday night between Calvin and Oshkosh was by a D-II crew, who let the women play aggressive basketball.   When there was a non-call foul by Oshkosh, Calvin fans were adamant in expressing their displeasure with the officials.  When there was non-call foul by Calvin, you could have heard the proverbial "pin drop".  What does that bode for Van Noord for the next two weekends?

[Roundball999]

Officiating Saturday night between Calvin and Oshkosh was by a D-II crew, who let the women play aggressive basketball.   When there was a non-call foul by Oshkosh, Calvin fans were adamant in expressing their displeasure with the officials.  When there was non-call foul by Calvin, you could have heard the proverbial "pin drop".  What does that bode for Van Noord for the next two weekends?

Sounds like pretty typical home court advantage stuff.  Best way to counter is a large contingent of fans from the visiting teams.  Admittedly tough to do for UTD and George Fox.  One of the unique challenges of the DIII tournament, big home court advantages for some teams.

[BruinFan]

The Lady Knights are relentless. They simply don't let an opponent take a breath with a frenetic style that wears out their opponent as much mentally as physically. John Ross's ladies use the full 94 feet every second of the game and you had better strap on your seatbelts. Oshkosh is a pretty good team who didn't turn the ball over all that much given the constant ball pressure they faced (16 turnovers) but what Calvin's style does to you is force a tempo that you probably don't want, shots taken that aren't the ones you want, and the shortening of the shot clock because it takes so long to get into your half court offense.

This description sounds a lot like George Fox this year. There are some more recent posts about officiating. With both of these teams being very aggressive, they will have to be ready to adjust depending on the approach taken by the officials.

[oldknight]

Officiating Saturday night between Calvin and Oshkosh was by a D-II crew, who let the women play aggressive basketball.   When there was a non-call foul by Oshkosh, Calvin fans were adamant in expressing their displeasure with the officials.  When there was non-call foul by Calvin, you could have heard the proverbial "pin drop".  What does that bode for Van Noord for the next two weekends?

Four more Calvin wins D.V.