WBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletics Association

[Flying Dutch Fan]

I think if Calvin wins, it could be 3 in form the MIAA. I believe Hope will be ranked in front of Trine if that happens. Trine would have a slight advantage in record, but Hope has a significant advantage in SOS (strength of schedule) and vs RRO (regional ranked opponents). Still think both would have a chance. If Trine wins I doubt if Calvin gets in.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Championship Saturday...Trine vs Calvin

Trine won 2 close games over Calvin this year.  However, Calvin is playing extremely well right now, and Trine looked sloppy on offense last night.  If Trine finds a way to finish at the rim then I think they win.  If Trine struggles making shots again tonight then Calvin will win if Timmer and Spayde play like they did last night against Hope.  Dawson looked out of sorts last night against Albion, noticed her knee was taped up, she didn't look as fluid as she normally does, she may be banged up a bit.  But at this time of year I'm sure a lot of gals are playing hurt to a certain extent.

So if Calvin wins...does the NCAA take 3 MIAA teams to the dance?  Or is that not likely to happen due to not many at large berths?  Is Hope a lock or are they on the bubble?  Is Trine on the bubble if they lose tonight?  Would love to hear your thoughts from you MIAA womens posters. 

With Trine playing on their home court, I'd have to say they're a solid favorite over Calvin.

In the last regional rankings, Hope was #3, Trine was #5 and Calvin #8.  That was before Hope lost to both Trine and Calvin.  I haven't done the math but I'd have to say that Trine is a lock win or lose today.  Calvin very much on the bubble unless of course they win today.  D3Hoops made a comment about Hope looking solid for an at large despite the loss last night, but I'm not sure that considered the possibility of Calvin winning the AQ.  Bottom line, I think if Trine wins then Hope is in and Calvin on very shaky ground due to low SoS.  If Calvin wins, Trine is still in and Hope has a chance but certainly not a lock.

To be clear. Those rankings were after Hope lost to Trine.  Hope is a pretty strong pool C candidate. 

[TUAngola]

I think if Calvin wins, it could be 3 in form the MIAA. I believe Hope will be ranked in front of Trine if that happens. Trine would have a slight advantage in record, but Hope has a significant advantage in SOS (strength of schedule) and vs RRO (regional ranked opponents). Still think both would have a chance. If Trine wins I doubt if Calvin gets in.

I agree that Calvin probably won't get in unless they get the AQ tonight.

Hope and Trine have good enough results this year, but their getting in will also depend on how many upsets there are in the AQ games today, tonight and tomorrow.  The more upsets the less at large bids to go around.  Lets hope there are none.

[bballfan13]

Here are my thoughts / scenarios for each team:

Trine - In if they win tonight.  If they lose I think they still get in as only Hope would be ranked in front of them in the GL region when the committee starts to draft the tournament.  This is assuming that Thomas More, Ohio Northern and DePauw all win their tournaments (all are in the Finals).  I don't think Trine needs to worry about Rose-Hulman if they win or not because I think if they lose they still keep Trine ahead of them as Trine would be losing to a regionally ranked team (Calvin) and Rose-Hulman would not.

Hope - Should be a lock for an at large bid.  Most likely will be the top seeded GL region team in need of the at large Pool C bid. 

Calvin - In if they win tonight.  If they lose they will be very much on the bubble.  Their SOS will be raised from playing Hope and Trine but I don't know if it will get over .500.  They got another regionally ranked win last night against Hope, but a loss to Trine tonight would put them at 2-5.  It will come down to where the committee puts them with Carnegie Mellon.  Each week so far the committee has put CM in front of Calvin due to the overwhelming SOS discrepancy.  CM has a top 10 SOS in the country and would only have 2 more losses than Calvin.  If Calvin remains behind CM and everyone else wins as they should, Calvin would be 3rd in the region to need a Pool C bid and would most likely get blocked behind CM.  And even if they are in front of CM, Calvin would still be on the bubble but somehow could wind up as one of the last 2 or 3 selected.  I'm going to run my draft of the tournament again tonight or tomorrow and see where it goes.

The committee will need to figure out these 2 possible scenarios based on what happens today for Calvin and CM.  This will determine who will be ranked in front in the final regional rankings.

Scenario 1: Calvin loses to Trine and CM beats Case Western Reserve:

Team	Record(vs D3)	Winning %	SOS	vRRO
Carnegie Mellon	18-7	.720	.607	2-6
Calvin	20-5	.800	.488	2-5

Scenario 2:  Calvin loses to Trine and CM loses to Case Western (Case Western beat CM earlier this year):

Team	Record(vs D3)	Winning %	SOS	vRRO
Carnegie Mellon	17-8	.680	.607	2-6
Calvin	20-5	.800	.488	2-5

Calvin has a better chance to be ranked ahead of CM if CM loses, but it will still be hard due to the huge gap in SOS.  But the committee might weigh winning % more here due to Calvin having 3 less losses.



That being said, I drafted the tournament before the newest rankings last week and think there is room for both Hope and Trine for at large bids.  So there is a very likely possibility for all 3 to get in if Calvin wins tonight.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Just keep in mind that the selection committee has made it very clear that they see a correlation of .030 advantage in SOS equates to 2-0 in win/loss.  CM has almost a .120 lead in SOS which is close to 8 more wins. Puts CM solidly above Calvin regardless of the games today.

[bballfan13]

Just keep in mind that the selection committee has made it very clear that they see a correlation of .030 advantage in SOS equates to 2-0 in win/loss.  CM has almost a .120 lead in SOS which is close to 8 more wins. Puts CM solidly above Calvin regardless of the games today.

This has been said by the women's committee?

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Just keep in mind that the selection committee has made it very clear that they see a correlation of .030 advantage in SOS equates to 2-0 in win/loss.  CM has almost a .120 lead in SOS which is close to 8 more wins. Puts CM solidly above Calvin regardless of the games today.

This has been said by the women's committee?

I'm not certain it has been said by the women's committee - the men for sure. Whether they have said it or not, that much difference in SOS is pretty significant and I can't see that a 2 game difference in W/L makes up for that. An SOS north of .600 is pretty rare. 

[bballfan13]

Just keep in mind that the selection committee has made it very clear that they see a correlation of .030 advantage in SOS equates to 2-0 in win/loss.  CM has almost a .120 lead in SOS which is close to 8 more wins. Puts CM solidly above Calvin regardless of the games today.

This has been said by the women's committee?

I'm not certain it has been said by the women's committee - the men for sure. Whether they have said it or not, that much difference in SOS is pretty significant and I can't see that a 2 game difference in W/L makes up for that. An SOS north of .600 is pretty rare.

Yes, I agree with you the SOS gap is significant and I think the committee stays with CM ahead of Calvin regardless of CM outcome today (CM did just win anyways).  But at some point the committee has to look at SOS vs. winning % as well.  I don't think there is a big enough gap in winning % for this one but it does get weighed in as well.  I wonder where the line is though.  You wouldn't put CM ahead of Calvin if they were 15-10 I don't think.

Also, SOS higher than .600 is not as rare on the women's side.  Currently 11 teams have higher than .600 SOS and 1 more has .599.  It is definitely more rare / nonexistent at times on the men's side.

[TUAngola]

Your MIAA Womens Champions for 2017, TRINE UNIVERSITY THUNDER!!   

Trine 49, Calvin 42.  First off I want to talk about the crowd support.  Over 1300 fans, probably the largest crowd at a Trine basketball game.  And it was a rockin crowd, it got loud.  The students made it a great college basketball atmosphere.  Kudos to the Blue Crew tonight!

Folks the game was a 40 minute grind.  If you like offensive basketball this wasn't the game for you.  If you like great effort in your face defensive pressure from both teams then this was your kind of game.  Trine jumped out to an early lead, but in the 2nd quarter Calvin clawed their way back and really frustrated Trine to take the lead by 2 at half.  Trine really come out with a defensive purpose in the 3rd quarter and got some fast break points off turnovers and turned the deficit into a 7 point lead going into the 3rd quarter.  In the 4th the teams traded some punches, Calvin got it down to 2 pts with 4 minutes to go but Trine got a put back bucket from Dawson and a drive and score from Williams to push the lead back out to 6, then after a stop on the defensive end, a big 3 point play from Haley Martin to seal the deal.

I thought defensively Calvin had a great game plan.  Anytime Martin or Dawson touched the ball in the post they were immediately double and sometimes triple teamed.  It forced Trine to find points from others and it worked well for Calvin as Trine shot a season low 32%, outside of Martin and Dawson the rest of the team was 7-32 from the floor.  Anna Timmer for Calvin was outstanding again tonight.  Trine switched it up and put defensive player of the year Haley Martin to guard Timmer and put the smaller Dawson on Warners, but Timmer has got some great moves around the basket to offset the length of Martin.  One of the keys to the win was Cassidy Williams defense on Ali Spayde.  Williams frustrated Spayde all night long, and maybe got under her skin a little bit too. 

I was worried that if Trine didn't finish well at the basket tonight that they'd be in trouble.  And if Timmer and Spayde played well then Calvin could win the game.  Timmer stepped up, but Spayde had a rough night.  Both Martin and Timmer finished with double/doubles on the night.  Calvin is really good, it'd be a shame if they don't get in the tournament.  All of their 5 losses were to Trine and Hope this year.

     

[jspiii]

D3 Hoops panel picks Hope at #12 of 20 Pool C picks.

[bballfan13]

I posted my tournament selections late last night on the NCAA tournament thread.  Here is a link:

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=6278.msg1793960#msg1793960

I have Hope getting in and Calvin getting left on the table.  I struggled with Calvin because I think they still sit behind Carnegie Mellon in the final regional rankings.  I didn't put CM in, but D3Hoops did, meaning Calvin got to the table in their selection but did not make it in.  It's razor thin I think, so there's lots of room for error here.

I had a hard time with the last 4 or 5 rounds due to low winning percentages of teams with really high SOS.  How the committee weighs that will be interesting.  I could honestly see CM and Calvin getting in, but I think it's a long shot.

[scottiedawg]

Both are in.

[bballfan13]

All 3 are in.  Trine, Hope, Calvin.

Looks like Calvin did jump Carnegie Mellon in the final regional rankings.

[Mr. Ypsi]

A question from a IWU fan who knows next to nothing about WBB in the MIAA (aside from some of the recent Hope and Calvin stars).  This is the first time in 25 years that a team not named Hope or Calvin has won an outright regular-season title.  Does Trine have an incredible group of seniors and this is a one-year 'blip', or has the Big Two become the Big Three for the foreseeable future?

[bballfan13]

A question from a IWU fan who knows next to nothing about WBB in the MIAA (aside from some of the recent Hope and Calvin stars).  This is the first time in 25 years that a team not named Hope or Calvin has won an outright regular-season title.  Does Trine have an incredible group of seniors and this is a one-year 'blip', or has the Big Two become the Big Three for the foreseeable future?

TUAngola should really answer this and I hope they do.  But Trine was a good team last year that won 17 or 18 games and built a nucleus with Brandi Dawson and Hayley Martin.  They only have 1 senior on the team this year so they should be right back where they are again next year.  I believe both Dawson and Martin are transfers (or it might be Martin's sister also on the team that was the transfer) but they were both there last year as well. 

You are correct in wondering who else is in the conference as it has been Calvin or Hope that have won every regular season conference title since 1992 until this year (or split in 2 different years with another team).