WBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletics Association

[Roundball999]

Massey probabilities give Hope a 42.67% chance of running the tables.

Massey % Chance of Winning, count of remaining 16 games:
100% −−  6
99% −−  3
98% −−  1
97% −−  1
96% −−  1
94% −−  1 (Albion)
87% −−  1 (@Albion)
83% −−  1 (Trine)
71% −−  1 (@Trine)

Now you did it, you went and jinxed us

Seriously, I assume this calculation is based on Massey's predicted probability for winning each game, then multiplying all the individual game probabilities to get the season probability?

Massey predictions theoretically get better as the season progresses and more data is available for their models.  Would be interesting to see how these predictions change as more games are played.

[scottiedawg]

I assume this calculation is based on Massey's predicted probability for winning each game, then multiplying all the individual game probabilities to get the season probability?

exactly!

[scottiedawg]

It's just bonkers really.   0.948 ^ 16 = 0.4255555.  So Massey gives Hope an average chance of 94.8% of winning each of their remaining 16 games.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

I think Saturday will be a good test for the team.  Albion hasn't lost yet either, and this is finals week at Hope (potential for a bit of distraction).  I actually think Albion may be the 2nd best team in the MIAA this year.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The basketball season now finds itself square in the middle of not only the holidays, but also finals. Teams are taking breaks to focus on academics and either not playing until the new year or finding openings to fit in games here and there.

And while the tempo of games subsides a bit, there is still plenty of news swirling around Division III. Tune in as Dave and guests tackle all of the news this week in what should be a jam-packed Hoopsville on Thursday night.

Topics will include the latest news of two Capital Athletic Conference members announcing they are leaving for other conference homes. What is next for the CAC which will be down to just three members by 2021-22 season. The rumors about St. Thomas's future continue to swirl, we at least try and put some of those rumors to rest. And a MIAC president finally speaks out about the decision to push UST out the door. Maybe he should have not said anything.

Plus, there is a new number one team in women's basketball, a team that nearly completed an undefeated season has reemerged, another former champion is showing they may be back in the hunt, and a program we haven't talked about in a long time has made it known they are ready for the season.

Hoopsville is presented by D3hoops.com and airs from the WBCA/NABC Studio. You can watch Thursday's show LIVE with the following options:
- Main page: www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville
- Show page: http://bit.ly/2rFn0MF (or www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2019-20/dec12)
- Facebook Live Simulcast: www.facebook.com/Hoopsville
- YouTube Simulcast: www.youtube.com/d3hoopsville
- Team1 Sports: www.team1sports.com/Hoopsville/
- Team1 Sports app (Android TV, Amazon Fire, Apple TV, Roku) - you will either find it under the "live" section or search for the Hoopsville channel

If you have questions about Division III basketball, feel free to send them and we will answer them on a the show. Email them to hoopsville@d3hoops.com or use any of the social media options to the right.

Guests Schedule (order subject to change):
- Doreen Carden, Albion women's coach
- Jill Pace, No. 1 Tufts women's coach
- Stephen Brennan, No. 14 Babson men's coach
- Keith Bunkenburg, No. 24 Benedictine coach

If you enjoy the show via the podcasts, choose your favorite avenue to listen and/or subscribe via the the following four avenues (click on the images when necessary):
SoundCloud: www.soundcloud.com/hoopsville




https://www.iheart.com/podcast/256-hoopsville-30984615/

We also have the podcast now on iHeartRadio, Tune-In and others coming. We will update them once we have better abilities to do so.

Don't forget you can always interact with us:
Website: www.d3hoopsville.com
Twitter: @d3hoopsville or #Hoopsville
Facebook: www.facebook.com/Hoopsville
Email: hoopsville@d3hoops.com
YouTube: www.youtube.com/d3hoopsville

[NW Hope Fan]

Wow! Great game! Go Hope!!

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Impressive 2nd half by the Britons on Saturday.  They nearly pulled off the upset .  That showing should (in my opinion) propel them in to the top 25.  They certainly appear to be worthy of that.

Hope's 2nd half was pretty poor - the only quarters they have not won all year I believe.  Offense really struggled and turned into a bunch of chucked up 3s.  Felt like the big lead they built going into half time caused them to let their guard down, but kudos on the final play drawn up by assistant Coach Kust, and executed to perfection!

[scottiedawg]

Assumption: Massey SOS is calculated well (for some definition of "well")

If that assumption is true, it looks like D3 voters put more stock in wins and losses, and relatively less stock in the quality of those wins and losses. You see this in college football rankings as well--most undefeated teams are ranked above most teams with 1 loss, and so on and so on.

There are 22 teams whose Massey ranking is at least 30% worse than their D3Hoops.com ranking. Of those 22 teams, their average SOS is 94.71.

There are 14 teams whose Masset ranking is at least 30% better than their D3Hoops.com ranking. Of those 14 teams, their average SOS is 56.71.


Scranton - Massey rating 350% lower than D3Hoops.com
Guilford - 300%
Transylvania - 256%
Amherst - 240%
Trinity TX - 153%
Mary Washington - 150%
DeSales - 136%
UW-Platteville - 135%
Emmanuel - 123%
Mary Hardin-Baylor - 116%
George Fox - 110%
Tufts - 100%
Wheaton IL - 68%
Marymount - 63%
East Texas Baptist - 61%
Widener - 54%
Gettysburg - 53%
Ohio Northern - 42%
Brandeis - 40%
Messiah - 35%
UW-LaCrosse - 33%
Catholic - 31%

Bethel - Massey rating 87% higher than D3Hoops.com
Gustavus Adolphus - 76%
Hope - 75%
Williams - 69%
Baldwin Wallace - 44%
Washington U - 39%
UW-Oshkosh - 38%
Loras - 37%
Augsburg - 33%
Wartburg - 28%
St. Thomas - 22%
Smith - 22%
UW-Whitewater - 21%
Whitman - 20%

Highest ranked Massey teams that received no D3Hoops.com voters
Trine, 24 in Massey
Emory, 28
SUNY New Paltz, 29
Otterbein, 32
John Carroll, 36
North Park, 39

These 4 teams are both ranked at least 100% lower in Massey than in D3Hoops.com, AND have a Massey SOS > 100:
Scranton, D3Hoops.com # 2
Transylvania, #16
Mary Washington. #28
Guilford, #42

These 4 teams are both ranked at least 30% higher in Massey than in D3Hoops.com, AND have a Massey SOS < 50:
Augsburg, #21
Loras, #24
Gustavus Adolphus, #25
UW-Oshkosh, #44

Scranton vs. George Fox on a neutral floor 12/28 will tell us a lot. Also vs. St. Vincent two days later.

Transylvania doesn't have many tough opponents left at all. Maybe 12/19 @ UC Santa Cruz?

Mary Washington has a decently tough 4 game stretch coming up.... @ Peace, vs. Kean, @ Catholic, vs. King's Pa

Guilford will definitely get tested in conference play.



Augsburg will get plenty of chances to prove they should be ranked higher than they are: @ St. Benedict, vs. Bethel, @ Gustavus Adolphus
Loras vs. North Park and @ Wartburg
Gustavus Adolphus, Bethel, St. Thomas, Augsburg--will reveal who should be ranked high
Same with Oshkosh--LaCross, Platteville, Stout, Whitewater--all strong


Scranton has a 9.9% chance of winning out. May be tough to know what they really are.

While Transylvania only has a 5.7% chance of winning out, I bet those odds are higher than most teams.
They could totally put up a 22 − 3 record and be a tough team to rank low, even if their SOS is not good.

[scottiedawg]

Mary Washington and Guilford fall out of the latest poll.

Augsburg, Loras, Gustavus Adolphus all move up.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Albion doubles +1 their votes (16 to 33) and moves up in the ORV category from 34th to 28th.  Hope solidly sitting in 4th (3 votes behind 3rd place Bowdoin).  The Dutch are also recieving 4 first place votes. 

[Roundball999]

Interesting game this afternoon at 5pm between unbeatens Hope and North Park.  On paper Hope would seem to be a solid favorite but I'm feeling this could be a great game.  NPU seems to be playing very well recently, especially the big win at Wheaton, while Hope seems to be playing a little below its earlier form.  The Dutch almost lost after leading big vs. Albion and last night they gave up a season high 51 points vs. Finlandia.   On the other hand Albion has a very good veteran team, and Hope still won by 30 while really spreading out the minutes vs Finlandia.  So I'll predict Hope in a relatively tight game, upset not out of the realm of possibility.

[Dutchfan]

Right now, Coach Morehouse has a career record of 594-90. Barring a lose, he will get his 600th career win on January 25th (Saturday) at Olivet. If he gets win 600 at Olivet, he will set the all-division record for both men and women for fewest games to 600 wins, one game quicker than Mark Campbell of D2 Union University of Tennessee. Coach Campbell is the only coach in NCAA history to record 600 wins in fewer than 700 games.... thus far.

[sac]

Right now, Coach Morehouse has a career record of 594-90. Barring a lose, he will get his 600th career win on January 25th (Saturday) at Olivet. If he gets win 600 at Olivet, he will set the all-division record for both men and women for fewest games to 600 wins, one game quicker than Mark Campbell of D2 Union University of Tennessee. Coach Campbell is the only coach in NCAA history to record 600 wins in fewer than 700 games.... thus far.

Thats a gem.  Wow.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Right now, Coach Morehouse has a career record of 594-90. Barring a lose, he will get his 600th career win on January 25th (Saturday) at Olivet. If he gets win 600 at Olivet, he will set the all-division record for both men and women for fewest games to 600 wins, one game quicker than Mark Campbell of D2 Union University of Tennessee. Coach Campbell is the only coach in NCAA history to record 600 wins in fewer than 700 games.... thus far.

Just to put that into perspective, Matt Logie, who just left Whitworth for D2 - Point Loma, has the highest winning percentage in the history of NCAA men's basketball.  He's currently sitting at 202-37.  That's within striking distance of 600 in 700, but he'd have to improve on an already historic level of success for another 20+ years.

Of course, Amherst's GP Gromacki is going to fly right by this record.  He only needs to go 84-23 and it's hard to believe Amherst won't be better than that in the next few years.

[Roundball999]

Right now, Coach Morehouse has a career record of 594-90. Barring a lose, he will get his 600th career win on January 25th (Saturday) at Olivet. If he gets win 600 at Olivet, he will set the all-division record for both men and women for fewest games to 600 wins, one game quicker than Mark Campbell of D2 Union University of Tennessee. Coach Campbell is the only coach in NCAA history to record 600 wins in fewer than 700 games.... thus far.

The best thing about this is that Coach Mo is just an incredibly great guy, truly cares about his players' well being, he's charitable and a gentleman.  Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.