WBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletics Association

[TUAngola]

Big game right off the bat as we resume league play in 2020.  12-0 Hope at 8-3 Trine on Saturday at 3pm.  Hope currently stands as the #1 team in the nation according to Massey and Trine comes in as #23.  Hope had a real test against Albion, other than that they have run roughshod thru the 2019 portion of their schedule.  Trine with losses to Ohio Wesleyan, #12 Baldwin Wallace and #23 Chicago.  They have 2 recent wins over good Ohio Northern and Denison squads and are starting to figure things out with new lineups and substitute patterns.

Both Hope and Trine play a deep bench as both only have 1 double digit scorer.  Hope with an outstanding and deep Junior class, whereas Trine has 3 Soph's leading in scoring.  The big question at the beginning of the year was how far would Trine regress this year after an outstanding Senior class graduated that led Trine to 3 consecutive NCAA tournaments.  This team does not have a "go to" player like Dawson who could single handily take over games if needed over her career.  We have one Senior, two Juniors, and the rest Soph's and Freshman in the top 11 rotation.

You know Hope is going to pressure the ball and get scores off their defense.  You don't see many D3 teams with their length inside either.  Our bigs Taylor and Herbert will need to play well and stay out of foul trouble.  If were shooting the 3ball decently we'll have a shot to be there at the end, but I am going with Hope by 10+ in this one as they have more experience and playmakers than Trine.   

[Roundball999]

Big game right off the bat as we resume league play in 2020.  12-0 Hope at 8-3 Trine on Saturday at 3pm.  Hope currently stands as the #1 team in the nation according to Massey and Trine comes in as #23.  Hope had a real test against Albion, other than that they have run roughshod thru the 2019 portion of their schedule.  Trine with losses to Ohio Wesleyan, #12 Baldwin Wallace and #23 Chicago.  They have 2 recent wins over good Ohio Northern and Denison squads and are starting to figure things out with new lineups and substitute patterns.

Both Hope and Trine play a deep bench as both only have 1 double digit scorer.  Hope with an outstanding and deep Junior class, whereas Trine has 3 Soph's leading in scoring.  The big question at the beginning of the year was how far would Trine regress this year after an outstanding Senior class graduated that led Trine to 3 consecutive NCAA tournaments.  This team does not have a "go to" player like Dawson who could single handily take over games if needed over her career.  We have one Senior, two Juniors, and the rest Soph's and Freshman in the top 11 rotation.

You know Hope is going to pressure the ball and get scores off their defense.  You don't see many D3 teams with their length inside either.  Our bigs Taylor and Herbert will need to play well and stay out of foul trouble.  If were shooting the 3ball decently we'll have a shot to be there at the end, but I am going with Hope by 10+ in this one as they have more experience and playmakers than Trine.   

Good analysis, both teams fundamentally sound with an emphasis on defense.  This one is at Trine and I've always worried in the past about Hope's occasional lousy shooting game when playing away.   The defense is even a little better this year so that may keep them in any games when the shooting touch is missing.   I think it will be relatively low scoring so its hard for me to see either team winning by 10+.  Massey has it at 61-53 Hope, I think that sounds about right.

I still think Albion will pick up a win or two vs. Hope and Trine this year.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Great defensive battle in Angola today, with the Thunder holding a 49-44 lead with around 4 minutes left in the game. Coach Mo called a timeout and must have provided some excellent coaching. Flying Dutch dominated the rest of the game with excellent D and some good O as well, closing the game on a 14-2 run to win 58-51. Great start to the new year for Hope.

[Roundball999]

Great defensive battle in Angola today, with the Thunder holding a 49-44 lead with around 4 minutes left in the game. Coach Mo called a timeout and must have provided some excellent coaching. Flying Dutch dominated the rest of the game with excellent D and some good O as well, closing the game on a 14-2 run to win 58-51. Great start to the new year for Hope.

Sad that I was unable to watch today, sounds like the kind of Trine-Hope game we have come to expect in the last couple of years.  Usually my predictions are wrong but this one played out as I thought.  Massey nailed it too, their prediction was 61-53 compared to the 58-51 final.

Looking at the box score, seems like Steers and Bieniewicz had great games and carried the load for Trine.  Bigs Thomas and Voskuil looked very strong for Hope, but the Dutch had more depth and balanced minutes.  I wonder if that had something to do with Hope's run to finish the game.

[TUAngola]

Great defensive battle in Angola today, with the Thunder holding a 49-44 lead with around 4 minutes left in the game. Coach Mo called a timeout and must have provided some excellent coaching. Flying Dutch dominated the rest of the game with excellent D and some good O as well, closing the game on a 14-2 run to win 58-51. Great start to the new year for Hope.

Sad that I was unable to watch today, sounds like the kind of Trine-Hope game we have come to expect in the last couple of years.  Usually my predictions are wrong but this one played out as I thought.  Massey nailed it too, their prediction was 61-53 compared to the 58-51 final.

Looking at the box score, seems like Steers and Bieniewicz had great games and carried the load for Trine.  Bigs Thomas and Voskuil looked very strong for Hope, but the Dutch had more depth and balanced minutes.  I wonder if that had something to do with Hope's run to finish the game.

Hope ends the game with a 14-2 run to beat Trine 58-51.  We gave Hope a good scare for 3 and half quarters but we struggled to hit shots down the stretch.  It was a hard fought game by both teams.  Each team knows each others offensive sets so well it was tough sledding to get good looks.  I thought both defenses were outstanding.  Hope with a better job at hitting shots when they did get an open look.  Going in I though Taylor and Herbert had to hold their own against Voskuil and Thomas...and they didn't.  The versatility of both of Hope's bigs makes them tough matchups as both can get shots inside and then if you leave them open beyond the arc they have the ability to hit too.  Steers carried us in the 1st half, it was the best I've seen her play offensively.  She's our only senior and she played like it.  Second half was a game of mini runs.  Trine started the 4th quarter on a 7-0 run, but Coach Morehouse called a much needed timeout to settle down his squad, and they got the job done the rest of the game.

I was encouraged by Trine's play overall as well lost a great deal of leadership and talent from last year.  Hope with just a better job of finishing the game.  There are going to be some good ole' knock down drag out games between Hope and Trine in the next few years that's for sure.       

[pointlem]

My impression from the season to this point is that, while Hope's offense sometimes lacks a focus this year, it's defense is amazing--a well coordinated machine and a pleasure to watch.

Although the victory-from-the-jaws-of-defeat games against Albion and Trine constrain my post-season expectations, this team could end the league season undefeated or with but one loss.

Olivia Voskuil seems to be playing with increased confidence this year, as she supplements her defense and rebounding with drives to the basket.

And what a day for Ashleigh Thomas, with 8 rebounds, 3 assists, no turnovers, and near-perfect 3-point shooting and free throws as part of her 14 points. Without her career day, Trine would be alone in first place tonight.

[Roundball999]

Will be interested to see the top of the poll this week.  Tough losses for Wartburg and Scranton.  Tufts of course will remain solidly number 1.  Voters seem a little conflicted over Bowdoin and Hope; last week Bowdoin had no number 1 votes and Hope had 5, yet Bowdoin was ranked higher.  That suggests to me that Hope had a broader spread among the voters.  When I look at the respective schedules year to date, I would actually expect Bowdoin to be more of an unknown than Hope (talking this year only).  It appears that Hope has several wins over high quality opponents while Bowdoin's best win to date appears to be over 7-7 Chapman.  In fact, Massey has Hope with 7 wins over teams they rank higher than Chapman, and Massey has Hope SoS at 30 vs. Bowdoin at 91.  Fun to talk about the Massey stats, but I tend to put more stock in the D3 hoops pollsters that actually watch games.  No matter, someone is going to have to beat Tufts eventually for any of this to matter

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

When a team behind another has five first place votes and the other does ... it absolutely means voters are far more spread out with how they are voting for the team below. Not just a suggestion for you.

[scottiedawg]

Fun to talk about the Massey stats, but I tend to put more stock in the D3 hoops pollsters that actually watch games. 

Do we know how many games pollsters watch? Seems to me that unless all pollsters are watching a majority of games by teams that are deserving of consideration, that something like Massey would hold more weight.  (this is ignoring any personnel changes, which I imagine Massey cannot and does not account for).     In the NFL, Football Outsiders DVOA "tries to" account for when a team's starting QB is injured; they have some adjustment. But such ad hoc adjustments are always hard to incorporate into an algorithm.

Massey SOS:
Tufts: 84
Bowdoin: 129
Hope: 26

given the relative lack of parity in WBB compared to MBB, I have to imagine that those differences in SOS are quite massive. 

[Roundball999]

Fun to talk about the Massey stats, but I tend to put more stock in the D3 hoops pollsters that actually watch games. 

Do we know how many games pollsters watch? Seems to me that unless all pollsters are watching a majority of games by teams that are deserving of consideration, that something like Massey would hold more weight.  (this is ignoring any personnel changes, which I imagine Massey cannot and does not account for).     In the NFL, Football Outsiders DVOA "tries to" account for when a team's starting QB is injured; they have some adjustment. But such ad hoc adjustments are always hard to incorporate into an algorithm.

Massey SOS:
Tufts: 84
Bowdoin: 129
Hope: 26

given the relative lack of parity in WBB compared to MBB, I have to imagine that those differences in SOS are quite massive. 

No disagreement here.  I do like to consider Massey together with the D3Hoops and WBCA polls, I think they all bring a different perspective.  Massey is not too useful until a good chunk of the season has gone by, when the data relies more on the current season.  The purely statistical approach eliminates fan bias even if it may have other flaws.  Some don't seem to get that it doesn't provide "predictions", just summaries of probabilities.  Subtle but important distinction.  If I say one team in a matchup is going to win and it doesn't, I was wrong.  If Massey said the same team had a 70% probability to win and it loses, Massey was still right (or at least it wasn't wrong).  But I think we agree that the SoS data is most interesting and useful and it doesn't introduce a regional factor.

[scottiedawg]

it is quite interesting how each "data source" both provides different information, and has different applications:

what follows is a gross oversimplification

D3Hoops.com poll - human sentiment on the best teams, no bearing on NCAA tournament seeding, selections
Massey - computer sentiment on the best teams, also no bearing on NCAA stuff
NCAA Regional Rankings - best teams according to NCAA formulas, very direct bearing on NCAA selections and seeding

So while I like to pontificate on Massey's usefullness (especially when MY alma mater is #1 :-) ), much/most of the inputs into Massey ratings/rankings, have zero input on the actual NCAA tournament.


I think in general I don't like how polls have such inherent biases in them.
--preseason rankings carry such "default weight" on ALL future rankings
--pollsters assume a team that lost should move down (you see this in college football rankings too)
--pollsters "mostly" assume teams with fewer losses are better, when a 5 point loss on the road against team #20 is probably "better" than a 20 point win at home against team #120.


that said, I would skew probably too far in the opposite direction, and rely solely on the computers!

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

it is quite interesting how each "data source" both provides different information, and has different applications:

what follows is a gross oversimplification

D3Hoops.com poll - human sentiment on the best teams, no bearing on NCAA tournament seeding, selections
Massey - computer sentiment on the best teams, also no bearing on NCAA stuff
NCAA Regional Rankings - best teams according to NCAA formulas, very direct bearing on NCAA selections and seeding

So while I like to pontificate on Massey's usefullness (especially when MY alma mater is #1 :-) ), much/most of the inputs into Massey ratings/rankings, have zero input on the actual NCAA tournament.


I think in general I don't like how polls have such inherent biases in them.
--preseason rankings carry such "default weight" on ALL future rankings
--pollsters assume a team that lost should move down (you see this in college football rankings too)
--pollsters "mostly" assume teams with fewer losses are better, when a 5 point loss on the road against team #20 is probably "better" than a 20 point win at home against team #120.


that said, I would skew probably too far in the opposite direction, and rely solely on the computers!

I know a lot of voters in DIII ... and those three items aren't necessarily their considerations. I can understand that some do and people have that interpretation, but we talk all the time on Hoopsville about how all three play an impact for a point - but not across the board and no longer to a strong degree.

Though, I think the last part about a 5-point win on the road v #20 and a 20-point win at home v #120 is a valid thing to consider.

[Jester1390]

I don't know about the top 20.    But rose is to top 10 of the bottom 100

[scottiedawg]

I know a lot of voters in DIII ... and those three items aren't necessarily their considerations.

And I don't know any myself! Definitely not saying I know for sure those items are things that voters consider, either consciously or unconsciously.
I do think that every poll is influenced by the one that came before it. Ideally, every voter has a set of criteria they value, and re-evaluate how each team does against that criteria each week, forgetting how the teams ended up being ranked by said criteria last week. (and again, I don't know that that ISN'T the way it's done :-) ).

[Roundball999]

Right now, Coach Morehouse has a career record of 594-90. Barring a lose, he will get his 600th career win on January 25th (Saturday) at Olivet. If he gets win 600 at Olivet, he will set the all-division record for both men and women for fewest games to 600 wins, one game quicker than Mark Campbell of D2 Union University of Tennessee. Coach Campbell is the only coach in NCAA history to record 600 wins in fewer than 700 games.... thus far.

Following Wednesday's home game at Devos vs. Alma, where the Dutch are heavy favorites, it does look likely that Coach Morehouse will be going for win #600 Saturday at Olivet.  Another twist is that Olivet's coach is Brittany (Berry) Zandstra, who starred for Coach Mo from 2012-2015.  Coach Zandstra was two time all-MIAA and holds several Hope records including career 3 pt FGs made and career 3 pt FG% as well as leading all of the NCAA in 3 pt FG% one year.  Flying Dutch fans will remember the roars when "Berry" would light up a game with a barrage of threes from way downtown or no-look passes leading to easy layups.

Achieving 600 wins at a record pace couldn't happen to a nicer guy and it will be somewhat bittersweet that it is likely to happen against a favorite former star player.