WBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletics Association

[scottiedawg]

a hopeless cause!

I see what you did there.

[Roundball999]

Well, if we survive Friday against Berea (about whom I know absolutely nothing except that they went 23-3), I guess I'll spend Saturday chanting "2012, 2012, 2012"!

What do a bunch of 30 year old guys (everyone who played in that MENS game is in or close to their 30s by now) have to do with this women's tournament Chuck?

Obviously, absolutely nothing.  But I need to do something to keep my spirits up when facing what looks like a hopeless cause!

In the selection show, Dave seemed a little ambivalent about Hope's noncon schedule as an indicator and he probably has a point.  Early in the year, Hope destroyed Benedictine 92-48 then Hanover 80-30.  Those looked like really good wins.  They also had a Holiday tournament win over NP, solid but far from a rout.  Then all those teams kind of faded at the end of the year.  So it still leaves the MIAA, mainly Trine, as Hope's main barometer.  Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Well, if we survive Friday against Berea (about whom I know absolutely nothing except that they went 23-3), I guess I'll spend Saturday chanting "2012, 2012, 2012"!

What do a bunch of 30 year old guys (everyone who played in that MENS game is in or close to their 30s by now) have to do with this women's tournament Chuck?

Obviously, absolutely nothing.  But I need to do something to keep my spirits up when facing what looks like a hopeless cause!

In the selection show, Dave seemed a little ambivalent about Hope's noncon schedule as an indicator and he probably has a point.  Early in the year, Hope destroyed Benedictine 92-48 then Hanover 80-30.  Those looked like really good wins.  They also had a Holiday tournament win over NP, solid but far from a rout.  Then all those teams kind of faded at the end of the year.  So it still leaves the MIAA, mainly Trine, as Hope's main barometer.  Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

I don't necessarily agree.  Let's look at those 3 teams you mentioned:

Benedictine - 24 - 3  |  3 - 3 vRRO  |  0.509 SOS
Hanover - 19 -7  |  1 - 4 vRRO  |  0.526 SOS
North Central - 12 - 15  |  2 - 8 vRRO  |  0.551 SOS

Hope - 27 - 0  |  6 - 0  |  0.557 SOS

So yes, North Central's record isn't great, but Benedictine (in the tourney) and Hanover are no slouch teams and were both regionally ranked - and Hope destroyed them both.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Quick assessment of Grove City @ Hope.  Couple of teams with pretty good defensive stats, albeit against a pretty large disparity in SOS.  Massey predicts a big Hope win:

Offense	% 2pt	% 3pt	% FT
Hope	50.2	30	67.7
Grove City	47.1	31.9	69.1
------
Defense	% 2pt	% 3pt
Hope	32.9	26.5
Grove City	38	27.5
------
Rebounding	Team	Opp	Margin
Hope	41.5	30.8	10.7
Grove City	42.7	36.9	5.8
------
Scoring	Team	Opp	Margin
Hope	76.1	42.2	33.9
Grove City	76.9	53	23.9
------
3 point shooting	Made/game
Hope	6.4
Grove City	5.6
------
Ball Control	Stl/game	TO/Game	OppTO/Game
Hope	15.7	14.4	25.7
Grove City	14.3	16.5	26.1
------
Ball Control	Asst/game	A/TO	Blks/game
Hope	15.1	1.05	4.3
Grove City	15.3	0.93	3
------
	RRO	In-Div SOS	Massey Predicts
Hope	6 - 0	0.557	74
Grove City	1 - 1	0.462	47

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Similar comparison for the first game on Friday Berea vs IWU.  Big disparity in rebounding margin, but also in SOS.  Massey predicts a closer game, but gives IWU a pretty good edge:

Offense	% 2pt	% 3pt	% FT
Berea	40.8	32.9	69.2
IWU	47.1	34.3	65
------
Defense	% 2pt	% 3pt
Berea	39.7	26.8
IWU	46.2	30.1
------
Rebounding	Team	Opp	Margin
Berea	50	36.5	13.5
IWU	39.1	38	1.1
------
Scoring	Team	Opp	Margin
Berea	76.9	58.6	18.3
IWU	74.6	65.3	9.3
------
3 point shooting	Made/game
Berea	7.7
IWU	6.9
------
Ball Control	Stl/game	TO/Game	OppTO/Game
Berea	10.2	15	17.4
IWU	11.1	16.1	20.4
------
Ball Control	Asst/game	A/TO	Blks/game
Berea	11.8	0.79	4.2
IWU	16.5	1.02	2.6
------
	RRO	In-Div SOS	Massey Predicts
Berea	0 - 1	0.5	69
IWU	3 - 6	0.582	80

[pointlem]

Kudos for your analyses, FDF.

Must we play the games, or could we just go with Massey Ratings?

https://www.masseyratings.com/tourn?t=1254

[Roundball999]

Well, if we survive Friday against Berea (about whom I know absolutely nothing except that they went 23-3), I guess I'll spend Saturday chanting "2012, 2012, 2012"!

What do a bunch of 30 year old guys (everyone who played in that MENS game is in or close to their 30s by now) have to do with this women's tournament Chuck?

Obviously, absolutely nothing.  But I need to do something to keep my spirits up when facing what looks like a hopeless cause!

In the selection show, Dave seemed a little ambivalent about Hope's noncon schedule as an indicator and he probably has a point.  Early in the year, Hope destroyed Benedictine 92-48 then Hanover 80-30.  Those looked like really good wins.  They also had a Holiday tournament win over NP, solid but far from a rout.  Then all those teams kind of faded at the end of the year.  So it still leaves the MIAA, mainly Trine, as Hope's main barometer.  Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

I don't necessarily agree.  Let's look at those 3 teams you mentioned:

Benedictine - 24 - 3  |  3 - 3 vRRO  |  0.509 SOS
Hanover - 19 -7  |  1 - 4 vRRO  |  0.526 SOS
North Central - 12 - 15  |  2 - 8 vRRO  |  0.551 SOS

Hope - 27 - 0  |  6 - 0  |  0.557 SOS

So yes, North Central's record isn't great, but Benedictine (in the tourney) and Hanover are no slouch teams and were both regionally ranked - and Hope destroyed them both.

Not in violent disagreement.  Those were huge wins over good, not great, teams.  I think the missing may be the signature win over a top team like a B-W or Depauw.  On the other hand, it may turn out that all the Trine wins were signature wins, I have this suspicion that the Thunder are underrated even though ranked.  The tournament will tell us.

[sac]

Hope Pod

Offensive efficiency or Points per possession
Hope                 1.03
Grove City         1.00
Ill. Wesleyan       .97
Berea                1.02

I don't have a lot of context for these numbers in women's basketball, but over 1.00 seems pretty good.


Defensive efficiency
Hope                  .58
Grove City          .69
Ill Wesleyan       .86
Berea                 .78

Believe it or not, Hope's about 15% better on defense this year.



Pace or possessions per game
Hope                  73.8
Grove City          77.3
Ill Wesleyan       76.6
Berea                 78.5

Yes the women's game is a slightly faster paced game.  No one should really be troubled here


Four Factors

eFG%                Off             Def
Hope                   48.5            35.4
Grove City           51.8            39.9
Ill Wesleyan        48.4            45.8
Berea                  43.9            39.9

Grove City maybe not the pushover you would think.  Maybe 3 pretty good defensive teams here.


Rebounding
          %Off rebounds   Opp%Off rebounds
Hope                    40.4             25.8
Grove City            41.4             32.5
Ill Wesleyan         34.9             32.9
Berea                   46.8             28.7

Berea is a great offensive rebounding team and 3 of the 4 are probably really good.


FT Rate
Hope                    28.3             20.5
Grove City            24.9             27.4
Ill. Wesleyan        28.9             26.8
Berea                   37.4             30.1

Berea lives at the free-throw line.  I really have no idea how Hope can be such a good defensive team without fouling much.


Turnover Rate
                      TO rate          Opp TO rate          Margin
Hope                    19.5              35.2                    15.7
Grove City            21.4              12.7                    12.7
Ill. Wesleyan        21.0              26.8                     5.8
Berea                   19.9              23.2                     3.3

I have a theory on the men's side of things that wide disparities in your offensive and defensive turnover rate is sometimes a function of the schedule you play.  There is a possibility that beyond Hope, Trine and Albion the MIAA was pretty poor or Hope is just as good or better than last year where their defensive metrics were all similar.  Turning your opponent over on 35% of possessions reminds of Kramer from Seinfeld in the karate class.



This is sort of a weird pod because Grove City grades out really well for a "4 seed", so maybe not your typical 1 v 4 game.  Grove City is from the Presidents a conference Thomas More completely and utterly dominated for a decade so maybe Grove City is good, maybe the PAC is bad, but it surely was at least equally as bad as the bottom 2/3's of the MIAA?  I can't imagine it was worse, but maybe?

Berea also grades out pretty well and IWU not as well as you might expect, when you factor in schedule differences though it becomes pretty clear Hope and IWU are the favorites.  However I wouldn't be totally surprised if both games were closer than you might expect Friday night.  Given the Hope v Trine/Albion results maybe Saturday is closer to a toss-up?

The caveat here is I have no context for these numbers on the womens side since I don't track them as well as I do the men.  Hope's defensive efficiency number is bonkers though.

[TUAngola]

Gordon Mann of D3Hoops.com in his preview of the 2020 tournament has Hope cutting down the nets in the Championship game!!

He also has Trine as the surprise team in the UWWhitewater bracket and could get to the Sweet 16.

[Roundball999]

Gordon Mann of D3Hoops.com in his preview of the 2020 tournament has Hope cutting down the nets in the Championship game!!

He also has Trine as the surprise team in the UWWhitewater bracket and could get to the Sweet 16.

Oh no, the kiss of death for both of us!  🤫

[pointlem]

Gordon Mann of D3Hoops.com in his preview of the 2020 tournament has Hope cutting down the nets in the Championship game!!

He also has Trine as the surprise team in the UWWhitewater bracket and could get to the Sweet 16.

So great to have Trine and Hope on opposite sides of the bracket, TUAngola.  We can dream . . . while rooting for each other.

[TUAngola]

Trine wins opening round game over Benedictine this evening 65-37.  I was not home so wasn't able to catch any of it on video.  Trine with an impressive 1st half leading 31-7 at the break.  Benedictine cut into the lead in the 3rd quarter, but Trine was able to pull back away in the 4th.  Stats show a pretty balanced attack, Steers and Wildman with 14 each, Bieniewicz and Taylor with 11 a piece.  No Shay Herbert in the lineup, so doesn't look like we'll have her for tomorrow night either.  That is a big loss in the starting lineup.  Appears that freshman Sophie Sloneker is taking her place starting and then saving freshman Sam Underhill to spell either Taylor or Sloneker.  Underhill has been a terrific sub this year on the interior, so I imagine Coach Rang wants to still untilize her in that capacity which makes sense.  She does have really good skills, in my mind she should start, even over Herbert, but we don't want to mess with the substitution pattern at this point in the season.  What we miss from Herbert is her ability to hit a 3 every now and then as a big.  Taylor and Underhill are strickly interior players, Taylor is a "bull in a china shop" when she gets the ball inside, Underhill can stroke it from 15 feet if left open.   

[Roundball999]

Trine wins opening round game over Benedictine this evening 65-37.  I was not home so wasn't able to catch any of it on video.  Trine with an impressive 1st half leading 31-7 at the break.  Benedictine cut into the lead in the 3rd quarter, but Trine was able to pull back away in the 4th.  Stats show a pretty balanced attack, Steers and Wildman with 14 each, Bieniewicz and Taylor with 11 a piece.  No Shay Herbert in the lineup, so doesn't look like we'll have her for tomorrow night either.  That is a big loss in the starting lineup.  Appears that freshman Sophie Sloneker is taking her place starting and then saving freshman Sam Underhill to spell either Taylor or Sloneker.  Underhill has been a terrific sub this year on the interior, so I imagine Coach Rang wants to still untilize her in that capacity which makes sense.  She does have really good skills, in my mind she should start, even over Herbert, but we don't want to mess with the substitution pattern at this point in the season.  What we miss from Herbert is her ability to hit a 3 every now and then as a big.  Taylor and Underhill are strickly interior players, Taylor is a "bull in a china shop" when she gets the ball inside, Underhill can stroke it from 15 feet if left open.   

Great win for Trine, congrats!   Go MIAA!

[scottiedawg]

Love seeing Trine roll their way to a win. They were pretty discounted nationally because of their record. When if they don't play Hope 3 times, but play, say, Benedictine 3 times, good chance Trine is ranked in the teens all year.

Trine might have an easier 2nd round opponent than expected.

[scottiedawg]

Last 4 games.
A LOT of this is opportunity and quality of shot for sure, but Morehouse is averaging 1.32 pts per shot from the floor.
1.21 - Baguley
1.10 - Moorman
1.07 - Thomas
1.06 - Schooneveld
0.67 - Barnes
0.59 - DeSmit
0.57 - Newman
0.42 - Tolbert
0.35 - Voskuil