WBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletics Association

[scottiedawg]

I may have input data from the box scores wrong, but over the past 4 games, Schooneveld does not have a turnover. Awesome.

TOs per 40min:
5.25 - Tolbert
4.85 - Barnes
4.50 - Voskuil
2.91 - Baguley
2.86 - Thomas
2.86 - DeSmit
2.39 - Moorman
1.80 - Newman
1.74 - Morehouse
0.00 - Schooneveld

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Wow!!! Hope down 6-2 very quickly, but then came back to lead 13-8 after Q1. Hope then held Grove City to 2-34 from the field the rest of the game.  Hope did not shoot well, just 35% from the floor but won 69-18. Quick turnaround and a much tougher matchup tomorrow versus IWU.

[pointlem]

Another improbable statistic . . . 45 of Hope's 69 points tonight came from its bench. As each new wave of players entered, Hope tonight seemed to lose nothing. If you had to lose top scorer Sydney Mueller to injury this season, it sure helps to have that kind of depth, effort, and well-coached team defense.

[scottiedawg]

If the chalk keeps winning, Massey gives Hope 43.42% chance of winning the title. That grows to 49.15% if we host the 3rd/4th rounds.

How does an undefeated Hope vs Baldwin Wallace sound?.....

[Dutchfan]

How does an undefeated Hope vs Baldwin Wallace sound?.....

Please, don't even joke about that. I still have nightmares of the Calvin students taunts.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

IWU @ Hope comparison:

2 common opponents:

Calvin
IWU 1 - 0 (60-44)
Hope 3 - 0 (64 - 38, 74- 50, 78 - 46)

North Park
IWU 1 - 1 (82 - 51, 64 - 77)
Hope 1 - 0 (62 - 45)

Offense	% 2pt	% 3pt	% FT
IWU	47.2	33.9	65.1
Hope	49.8	29.8	67.9
------
Defense	% 2pt	% 3pt
IWU	45.8	29.5
Hope	32.4	25.8
------
Rebounding	Team	Opp	Margin
IWU	39.7	38	1.7
Hope	41.9	31	10.9
------
Scoring	Team	Opp	Margin
IWU	74.6	64.8	9.8
Hope	75.8	41.3	34.5
------
3 point shooting	Made/game
IWU	6.9
Hope	6.4
------
Ball Control	Stl/game	TO/Game	OppTO/Game
IWU	11	16.1	20.4
Hope	15.7	14.4	25.8
------
Ball Control	Asst/game	A/TO	Blks/game
IWU	16.4	1.02	4.1
Hope	15	1.04	4.3
------
	vRRO	In-Div SOS	Massey Predicts
IWU	3- 6	0.582	56
Hope	6 - 0	0.557	75

[Pat Coleman]

Love seeing Trine roll their way to a win. They were pretty discounted nationally because of their record. When if they don't play Hope 3 times, but play, say, Benedictine 3 times, good chance Trine is ranked in the teens all year.

Trine might have an easier 2nd round opponent than expected.

Rather than the two extremes, we would learn so much more if they played Baldwin Wallace three times.

[Jameswys]

Albion lost to Trine three times, Hope twice and Texas-Dallas once for their 6 losses this year. All three teams have advanced to the second round. I would have liked to see them make the tournament, but I fully understand why a team that finished with 6 losses and third in their league can't make it. It would have been interesting to see how good they actually are.

[scottiedawg]

Love seeing Trine roll their way to a win. They were pretty discounted nationally because of their record. When if they don't play Hope 3 times, but play, say, Benedictine 3 times, good chance Trine is ranked in the teens all year.

Trine might have an easier 2nd round opponent than expected.

Rather than the two extremes, we would learn so much more if they played Baldwin Wallace three times.

Is Benedictine that much of an extreme? Probably right around 50th percentile of tourney teams??

[scottiedawg]

Or better yet, instead of playing Hope 3 times, have them play a BAD team 3 times, get 3 auto wins. 24-2, and probably still a better SOS than Transylvania, who got to host.  25-2 against a poor slate of opponents gets your much farther than 21-6 against a much stronger slate.

[Pat Coleman]

Transy got to host because of geography, so I'm not sure that's a good measure.

Is Benedictine 50th percentile among tourney teams? As a Pool C from a below-average conference? I'm guessing not.

[scottiedawg]

You're right, Transy hosting is not a fair comparison.

I think using Massey to judge the strength of teams in the field is fair (not fair to use Massey as a basis for selection or non-selection of course).

But mid 45's Massey is right around 32nd-34th among teams in the field. Lotta Pool A's are 100+.

I could be dead wrong, but I strongly feel like the quality of opponent tells you way more than the binary W/L.

In an extreme example, I wonder if a team that goes 26-0 vs some team in the 400s is regarded better than a team that plays Hope 26 times, loses 26 times, all by less than 10 points. Perhaps a stupid hypothetical, but I'd absolutely believe the 0-26 team is better.

Trine played a top 30 schedule (both in NCAA and Massey). Transylvania played a schedule outside the top 130 (both in NCAA and Massey).  I don't think the 0.150 diff in Win% offsets that.

[Pat Coleman]

To be sure, we are in agreement.

I would still learn more from a couple more Trine-Baldwin Wallace games than I would from any Trine-Benedictine games.

[scottiedawg]

Oh absolutely, perhaps I glazed over our agreement to make a different point. BW definitely better than Benedictine, ergo we'd learn way more about Trine. Absolutely.


This is probably a bridge too far, but I'd love for there to be some computerized ranking of all teams (using NCAA selection criteria), and any win against a team say 200th+ doesn't count in your W/L%. Maybe that threshold is 150, maybe it's 250, etc. But those wins should mean nothing.

NCAA SOS and RRO help this a lot, but win% is still a primary criteria. I think it gets overweighted.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Wow (same comment as last night but a completely different reason). Hope trails most of the game and is outplayed for a good 38 minutes, but pulls out a HUGE win!  Down 67-58 with 4:30 to play, Hope closed the game on a 14-2 run, with Kenedy Schoonveld blocking a last second 3 to finish the game.  IWU had 6 turnovers in that stretch, 3of them steals by Voskuilfinal score

Hope 72
IWU 69

Schooveld with 20 (including 9 in the 4th)  Voskuil with 16

Sosa for IWU with 32 - a definite AA player from my view