WBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletics Association

[Flying Dutch Fan]

The NCAA committee released their top 16 rankings today:  Trine was #9 and Hope #12.   

So it does appear that if Trine and Hope play once again in the MIAA conference championship game, that the winner will be a host in the NCAA tournament and the other team might be S.O.L.

Yep - unfortunately as I predicted.  The way the NCAA is ranking these teams is a complete joke IMHO.  Not like Trine or Hope need any extra motivation, but if I were coaching either team, the NCAAs list would be posted in the lockerroom

[TUAngola]

The NCAA committee released their top 16 rankings today:  Trine was #9 and Hope #12.   

So it does appear that if Trine and Hope play once again in the MIAA conference championship game, that the winner will be a host in the NCAA tournament and the other team might be S.O.L.

Yep - unfortunately as I predicted.  The way the NCAA is ranking these teams is a complete joke IMHO.  Not like Trine or Hope need any extra motivation, but if I were coaching either team, the NCAAs list would be posted in the lockerroom

I agree, you can't tell me that there are 8 to 10 teams in the nation better than Hope or Trine.  I would have been fine with maybe a 4 or 5 or 6 ranking, but 9 and 12?  The only thing I can think of that is skewing the NCAA rankings is SOS and how 'top heavy' our conference is.  After Hope, Trine, Albion and Calvin the rest of the conference is very weak, except for Alma who I think is on the rise.  Olivet, Kzoo, St Mary's, and Adrian have been down for some time. 

[HOPEful]

The NCAA committee released their top 16 rankings today:  Trine was #9 and Hope #12.   

So it does appear that if Trine and Hope play once again in the MIAA conference championship game, that the winner will be a host in the NCAA tournament and the other team might be S.O.L.

Yep - unfortunately as I predicted.  The way the NCAA is ranking these teams is a complete joke IMHO.  Not like Trine or Hope need any extra motivation, but if I were coaching either team, the NCAAs list would be posted in the lockerroom

I just don't understand how a committee can be so wrong. For as much as we dissect and complain after the selections, for the last couple seasons, the men's committee has done a pretty phenomenal job.

But anyone who knows basketball and has actually watched the top teams in the country can see very quickly that Hope and Trine are elite teams that belong in the top 5 (personally I believe 1 and 2)... With all due respect to DePauw and the incredible program that Kris Huffman has built there and a very good defensive team, sending Hope to Greencastle for the playoffs would be a disservice to everyone involved. I firmly believe that if Hope plays DePauw this season, regardless of where the game is played, that they will win by the score of their choosing. Massey says 71-58 if it's in Neal Fieldhouse. I don't think it would be that close.

I feel the same way about Tufts, Amherst, and Scranton.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

The NCAA committee released their top 16 rankings today:  Trine was #9 and Hope #12.   

So it does appear that if Trine and Hope play once again in the MIAA conference championship game, that the winner will be a host in the NCAA tournament and the other team might be S.O.L.

Yep - unfortunately as I predicted.  The way the NCAA is ranking these teams is a complete joke IMHO.  Not like Trine or Hope need any extra motivation, but if I were coaching either team, the NCAAs list would be posted in the lockerroom

I just don't understand how a committee can be so wrong. For as much as we dissect and complain after the selections, for the last couple seasons, the men's committee has done a pretty phenomenal job.

But anyone who knows basketball and has actually watched the top teams in the country can see very quickly that Hope and Trine are elite teams that belong in the top 5 (personally I believe 1 and 2)... With all due respect to DePauw and the incredible program that Kris Huffman has built there and a very good defensive team, sending Hope to Greencastle for the playoffs would be a disservice to everyone involved. I firmly believe that if Hope plays DePauw this season, regardless of where the game is played, that they will win by the score of their choosing. Massey says 71-58 if it's in Neal Fieldhouse. I don't think it would be that close.

I feel the same way about Tufts, Amherst, and Scranton.

It's not about watching.  It's about numbers.  The SOS for those MIAA teams aren't very strong.  Hope could play DePauw and Transy and John Carroll if they wanted to.  There's one good nonconference game on Hope's schedule and two for Trine.  I think Trine would've been quite a bit higher if they'd beaten Eau Claire instead of lost.

Hope or Trine may still end up hosting two weekend anyway.  Given their location in between the East and Midwest, they're often geographically convenient.

[TUAngola]

I also don't understand why the committee is so in love with Transylvania.  They have one good win, on the road over Tufts, but other than that their schedule is pedestrian.  The HCAC is worse than the MIAA top to bottom.  After Transy, the next 2 best teams are Bluffton and Rose Hulman at 132 and 137 rating in Massey.  The MIAA has 5 teams in the top 100 in Massey.  I can live with DePauw having a decent ranking.  The NCAC has some good teams in Oberlin, Ohio Wesleyan and Wittenberg.

[TUAngola]

...I take that back, I missed that Transy also has a win over a good John Carroll team., but there is no one else higher than a 122 on their schedule.  By contrast Trine has 10 wins this season over teams with a Massey rating under 100.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

...I take that back, I missed that Transy also has a win over a good John Carroll team., but there is no one else higher than a 122 on their schedule.  By contrast Trine has 10 wins this season over teams with a Massey rating under 100.

The committee doesn't and isn't allowed to look at the schedule, beyond head to head, common opponents, or regionally ranked games.  They have to stick to the criteria.  The women's committee does tend to favor winning percentage over other criteria - at least more than the men do - which is why you don't see a team with more than 3 losses in their Top 16 and likely why you see Transy so high.

Hope and Transy have very similar numbers, but Transylvania is slightly ahead in both winning percentage and SOS.  They're 4-0 against RRO and Hope is 4-1.  Wins over Tufts and JCU do probably trump those over Trine and BW, if only by a little, but that gives Transy a slight lead in all three of the major categories.  It's not a hard decision to make.

[scottiedawg]

I think there are better ways to do it, but under the current criteria, Transy has a better SOS than Trine, Hope, DePauw. Throw in undefeated overall and vs RRO and boom, you get a #3 ranking.

Even under the current criteria I think Transy should be 3 or 4 or 5 instead of 2, but you can't make a case for them to be lower than that.

The cold reality is that Hope playing only 5 RRO so far (and only 1 of them non-con) gave them a tiny margin for error. If they beat Trine, they're probably ranked #2 or #3. But with that lone loss, it buries their resume.

Teams like Tufts, Smith, Amherst, Scranton have much more margin for error since they played 12, 11, 8, 8 games vs. RRO.

If Hope had +3 RRO wins against say Oberlin, IWU, Wheaton, then they'd be right there with Simpson and Amherst around #3/#4.

Again, there are many changes I'd like to make to the criteria. I'd also like Hope to schedule some more non-con Region 7/8 games going forward.

[TUAngola]

Quote: "There's one good nonconference game on Hope's schedule and two for Trine.  I think Trine would've been quite a bit higher if they'd beaten Eau Claire instead of lost."

I disagree with Trine's assessment of their nonconference schedule.  Yes, losing to UW-Eau Claire hurts the 'eye test' some, but this was on a back-to-back road trip where Trine beat a pretty decent UW-Stout team the night before losing to Eau Claire.  Trine also has non-conference wins over Baldwin Wallace and Ohio Northern.  They also beat PSU-Behrend, who although doesn't have a good Massey rating, is 19-4 on the season.

[scottiedawg]

I'm guessing that Hope and Trine have a weaker SOS that isn't adjusted by their margins of victory.

SOS formula is here:
"• Division III strength-of-schedule (SOS).
- Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP) (weighted 2/3).
- Opponents' Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OOWP) (weighted 1/3)."

https://www.d3hoops.com/interactive/faq/ncaatournament

Margin of victory is not a factor. Neither is location of the game.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Hope could play DePauw and Transy and John Carroll if they wanted to. 

You sure about that?  I know that scheduling has not exactly been easy for Hope.  It's not only Hope that has to want those games (not saying the teams you mentioned are avoiding Hope) but it does take two to tango

[scottiedawg]

Yeah scheduling is an area I know nothing about.

In a perfect world Hope plays in 3 4-team non con tournaments and gets to face 2 CCIW, 2 HCAC, and 2 OAC opponents every year.

Perhaps the reality of that isn't there.

But even if that's the reality, you can't not reward a team that DOES play a strong non con slate. You just get more information.

This is the complaint of SCIAC and NWC teams right? Weak non con because of geography and little avenue to change that?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Hope could play DePauw and Transy and John Carroll if they wanted to. 

You sure about that?  I know that scheduling has not exactly been easy for Hope.  It's not only Hope that has to want those games (not saying the teams you mentioned are avoiding Hope) but it does take two to tango

True.  I just meant those as standins for better teams.  There may be individual opponents who won't want to play - and COVID certainly hampered scheduling this year, but generally, Hope can get a better non-con slate than they have this year.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Hope could play DePauw and Transy and John Carroll if they wanted to. 

You sure about that?  I know that scheduling has not exactly been easy for Hope.  It's not only Hope that has to want those games (not saying the teams you mentioned are avoiding Hope) but it does take two to tango

True.  I just meant those as standins for better teams.  There may be individual opponents who won't want to play - and COVID certainly hampered scheduling this year, but generally, Hope can get a better non-con slate than they have this year.

Agreed - COVID and teams that did or didn't have a season last year all made scheduling a nightmare this year.  I also believe that with the updated regions and the large increase in the number of ranked teams across the nation, there may be some adjustments to scheduling.  I'm also curious how things might look if we were back at the "normal" number of ranked teams (fully understanding that might mean Calvin is not ranked thereby impacting Hope and Trine)

[TUAngola]

Rankings/Schmankings...I'm just glad there will BE a tournament this year.  Can't wait for the dance to begin.