WBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletics Association

[scottiedawg]

I grabbed stats from Hope's 11 "toughest" games:
Trine x3
Calvin x3
Albion x2
Baldwin Wallace
La Roche
Marietta
(maybe Alma or Mount Union was "tougher" than La Roche, but I had to include all tournament games)

Looking just at the "Core 9" with Feenstra injured.

Minutes Per Game
Kenedy Schoonveld, 23.8
Sydney Muller, 22.5
Olivia Voskuil, 20.9
Kate Majerus, 20.1
Ella McKinney, 19.6
Kasey DeSmit, 19.1
Claire Baguley, 17.3
Meg Morehouse, 16.5
Hannah Smith, 16.3

Max Minutes in any game is 33, by Schoonveld and Muller
Min Minutes in any game  is 11 by Morehouse and Smith

FG%
Kate Majerus, 57%
Hannah Smith, 51%
Meg Morehouse, 45%
Olivia Voskuil, 44%
Ella McKinney, 44%
Kenedy Schoonveld, 43%
Sydney Muller, 43%
Claire Baguley, 40%
Kasey DeSmit, 35%

3PT%
Excluding Smith and Voskuil as they have only attempted 0.6 per game over these 11 games

Kate Majerus, 64%
Sydney Muller, 46%
Kenedy Schoonveld, 41%
Ella McKinney, 30%
Kasey DeSmit, 30%
Claire Baguley, 26%
Meg Morehouse, 25%

FT%
Kate Majerus, 75% (but only 0.4 attempts per)
Kenedy Schoonveld, 71%
Hannah Smith, 70%
Sydney Muller, 68%
Claire Baguley, 68%
Kasey DeSmit, 60%
Ella McKinney, 55%
Olivia Voskuil, 54%
Meg Morehouse, 52%

Rebounds per 25 Min
Hannah Smith, 8.1
Olivia Voskuil, 7.7
Sydney Muller, 5.3
Kate Majerus, 4.5
Kenedy Schoonveld, 4.0
Claire Baguley, 3.3
Meg Morehouse, 3.2
Ella McKinney, 3.0
Kasey DeSmit, 1.4

Assists per 25 Min
Kasey DeSmit, 3.1
Kenedy Schoonveld, 2.6
Meg Morehouse, 2.1
Claire Baguley, 2.0
Sydney Muller, 1.7
Ella McKinney, 1.5
Olivia Voskuil, 1.3
Kate Majerus, 1.1
Hannah Smith, 0.8

Steals per 25 Min
Meg Morehouse, 2.2
Olivia Voskuil, 2.2
Kasey DeSmit, 2.1
Hannah Smith, 1.8
Sydney Muller, 1.5
Kate Majerus, 1.4
Kenedy Schoonveld, 1.3
Ella McKinney, 1.3
Claire Baguley, 0.5

Blocks per 25 Min
Olivia Voskuil, 3.8
Hannah Smith, 0.7
Kenedy Schoonveld, 0.7
Kate Majerus, 0.5
Kasey DeSmit, 0.1
Sydney Muller, 0.1

Turnovers per 25 Min
Sydney Muller, 2.9
Meg Morehouse, 2.9
Ella McKinney, 2.2
Olivia Voskuil, 2.0
Claire Baguley, 1.7
Kasey DeSmit, 1.4
Kenedy Schoonveld, 0.9
Kate Majerus, 0.7
Hannah Smith, 0.6

PF per 25 Min
Meg Morehouse, 3.5
Hannah Smith, 3.2
Kasey DeSmit, 3.0
Kate Majerus, 2.1
Ella McKinney, 2.1
Claire Baguley, 1.8
Sydney Muller, 1.7
Olivia Voskuil, 1.4
Kenedy Schoonveld, 1.0

Points per 25 Min
Olivia Voskuil, 11.6
Kenedy Schoonveld, 11.3
Ella McKinney, 11.0
Sydney Muller, 10.3
Kate Majerus, 9.0
Claire Baguley, 8.7
Meg Morehouse, 7.7
Hannah Smith, 6.6
Kasey DeSmit, 6.3

[pointlem]

Great data synopsis, Scottie Dawg. That was a piece of work, which documents, for example, Kate's amazing 3-point shooting (teams will be sticking with her on the perimeter, which can open up the lane for driving layups) and Meg's aggressive defense (seen in steals and fouls).

Also of possible interest: Ferris State this weekend defeated Grand Valley in the DII GLIAC tournament championship game. DIII Hope defeated Ferris 69 to 60 in a preseason exhibition game.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Stats comparison for Millikin @ Hope on Friday:

Offense	% 2pt	% 3pt	% FT
Hope	52.0	37.8	66.6
Millikin	49.3	35.6	74.0
------
Defense	% 2pt	% 3pt
Hope	34.0	24.7
Millikin	43.3	30.5
------
Rebounding	Team	Opp	Margin
Hope	44.2	34.0	10.2
Millikin	34.7	34.1	0.6
------
Scoring	Team	Opp	Margin
Hope	86.4	46.8	39.6
Millikin	73.3	61.1	12.2
------
3 point shooting	Made/game
Hope	8.2
Millikin	6.2
------
Ball Control	Stl/game	TO/Game	OppTO/Game
Hope	17.3	14.9	26.2
Millikin	12.4	16.6	21.7
------
Ball Control	Asst/game	A/TO	Blks/game
Hope	16.6	1.11	4.8
Millikin	15.9	0.96	3.6
------
	vRRO	In-Div SOS	Massey Predicts
Hope	6-1	0.540	80
Millikin	9-5	0.563	60

[HOPEful]

Also of possible interest: Ferris State this weekend defeated Grand Valley in the DII GLIAC tournament championship game. DIII Hope defeated Ferris 69 to 60 in a preseason exhibition game.

Very cool.

I will be Debby Downer a little here though and say that Ferris very much played that game as an exhibition. I would be interested in seeing the outcome of a "real" game between the two. Ferris really only plays 8 deep, with the starters garnering the majority of the minutes. I believe had Ferris gone into the game against Hope with it being a "real game" type of mentality, you would have seen more minutes from their starters.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Hope Regional

This is going to be one great weekend of basketball at the DeVos - as you would expect for this round. Some thoughts and data about these teams:

Regional Ranking stuff (based on the final rankings, not updated since the tourney began)
-  NYU (Reg4), Scranton (Reg5), and Hope (Reg7) are all Ranked #1 in their regions, along with Millikin (Reg8) ranked #4.
-  Their SOS's range from .540 (Hope) to .597 (Scranton)
-  Combined they are 33-9 vRRO

NCAA Tournament history
-  All 4 of the teams have some significant tournament history
-  NYU is 33-22 all time (.600) - 3 Final Fours and 1 National Championship (1997)
-  Scranton is 68-36 all time (.654) - 9 Final Fours and 1 National Championship (1985)
-  Millikin is 24-14 all time (.632) - 3 Final Fours and 1 National Championship (2005)
-  Hope is 43-18 all time (.705) - 3 Final Fours and 2 National Championships (1990 & 2006)

Comparing this years teams
(details on the columns)
Avg Pos/G - Average possession per game - to help judge the speed of games
Off Eff (PPP) - Offensive Efficiency in Points Per Possession
Def Eff (PPP) - same thing on the defensive side
Home Attendance - just throwing that in there since there were ~ 2000 fans last weekend at each game, and I expect it will be even higher this weekend, and that can be intimidating

Team	Avg Pos/G	Off Eff (PPP)	Def Eff (PPP)	Avg Home Attendance
NYU	72.5	1.079	0.780	98
Scranton	64.6	1.043	0.801	356
Millikin	71.3	1.029	0.856	252
Hope	74.6	1.158	0.628	1100

-  Based on Avg Pos/G - Scranton and NYU will likely be battling over the pace of the game.  Control the pace, and it likely gives you an advantage. 
-  Hope and Millikin both like a faster game.  I think this one comes down to Hope's defense and can they play with that .628 defensive efficiency

[ronk]

In 2006, Hope's national championship team beat Scranton in the semis by 3, arguably the "championship" game that season. I'm remembering Scranton's All-American Taryn Mellody missing a game-tying 3-pt attempt in the final seconds.
But, we both have formidable foes in sectional semis to get past before a rematch.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

In 2006, Hope's national championship team beat Scranton in the semis by 3, arguably the "championship" game that season. I'm remembering Scranton's All-American Taryn Mellody missing a game-tying 3-pt attempt in the final seconds.
But, we both have formidable foes in sectional semis to get past before a rematch.

I remember that game very well - what a battle that was!

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Transylvania Regional

Some thoughts and data about these teams:

Regional Ranking stuff (based on the final rankings, not updated since the tourney began)
-  Springfield #4 (Reg2), Trine #2 (Reg7), Transylvania #1 (Reg8) , and UMHB #1 (Reg10)
-  Their SOS's range from .542 (Transylvania) to .550 (Trine)
-  Combined they are 17-8 vRRO

NCAA Tournament history
-  All of the teams have some recent (since 2000) tournament history.  The only pre-2000 results were Springfiled going 1-1 in the 1982 tourney. 
-  Springfield is 8-7 all time (.533) - deepest run of these teams - getting to the Elite 8 in 2005
-  Trine is 8-3 all time (.727)
-  UMHB is 6-1 all time (.857)
-  Transylvania is 6-6 all time (.500)

Comparing this years teams
(details on the columns)
Avg Pos/G - Average possession per game - to help judge the speed of games
Off Eff (PPP) - Offensive Efficiency in Points Per Possession
Def Eff (PPP) - same thing on the defensive side

Team	Avg Pos/G	Off Eff (PPP)	Def Eff (PPP)
Trine	66.7	1.099	0.707
Springfield	68.6	1.049	0.794
UMHB	73.1	0.963	0.845
Transylvania	68.1	1.111	0.751

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Masset Predictions for Friday's Sweet 16 games.  I did this using the Matchup tool, since Massey's Games listings doesn't properly reflect neutral vs home games.

Massey	Rank	Score	Probability
CNU	3	76	0.73
Trinity TX	22	68	0.27
-------------------	-------------------	-------------------	-------------------
Tufts	14	55	0.4
Amherst	13	59	0.6
-------------------	-------------------	-------------------	-------------------
Smith	16	58	0.15
UW Whitewater	4	70	0.85
-------------------	-------------------	-------------------	-------------------
Baldwin-Wallace	8	55	0.44
UW Oshkosh	7	58	0.56
-------------------	-------------------	-------------------	-------------------
Trine	2	67	0.86
Springfield	24	55	0.14
-------------------	-------------------	-------------------	-------------------
UMHB	52	58	0.14
Transylvania	10	70	0.86
-------------------	-------------------	-------------------	-------------------
NYU	6	69	0.76
Scranton	25	60	0.24
-------------------	-------------------	-------------------	-------------------
Millikin	17	60	0.06
Hope	1	80	0.94

Interesting that the closest predicted game (B-W vs UWO) if it were instead being played at B-W (who didn't put in to host) would flip-flop with B-W predicted to win by 2

[RogK]

Hey Flying Dutch Fan, in regard to the Average Possessions per Game numbers in recent posts, do you know which definition of a possession was used?
Does an offensive rebound extend a single possession or does it start a new one?

[Baldini]

Hey Flying Dutch Fan, in regard to the Average Possessions per Game numbers in recent posts, do you know which definition of a possession was used?
Does an offensive rebound extend a single possession or does it start a new one?

If the other team doesn't possess the ball it would not be another possession. I've never seen a metric that counted an offensive rebound as a new possession.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Hey Flying Dutch Fan, in regard to the Average Possessions per Game numbers in recent posts, do you know which definition of a possession was used?
Does an offensive rebound extend a single possession or does it start a new one?

The calculation I am using (there are many variations out there) is this:

0.96 x (FG Attempts - Off Reb + Turnovers + (0.475 x FT Attempts))

We could debate the two "factors" - 0.96 and 0.475 - but since I'm using the same calculation across the board changing them is not likely to make the comparisons between the teams change much. 

[RogK]

Thanks for showing the formula.
It does fit in the definition that an o-reb continues a single possession, which is the definition I like.
I imagine high-budget operations like the NBA probably have someone in the stat-keeping that inserts a change-of-possession indicator in the official play-by-play, so they have an ongoing count of possessions.
Even there, some judgement is involved when there's a scrum for a loose ball that may include several quick changes of possession. The shot clock operator makes those judgements I guess.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Thanks for showing the formula.
It does fit in the definition that an o-reb continues a single possession, which is the definition I like.
I imagine high-budget operations like the NBA probably have someone in the stat-keeping that inserts a change-of-possession indicator in the official play-by-play, so they have an ongoing count of possessions.
Even there, some judgement is involved when there's a scrum for a loose ball that may include several quick changes of possession. The shot clock operator makes those judgements I guess.

Agreed - in fact I've always wanted to watch a game and keep track myself and then compare it to the calculation, but I'm either too invested in the outcome (live) or too busy or distracted to go rewatch a game and do it that way.

[TUAngola]

Terrific  ...Lexington KY forecast calls for a 'bomb cyclone' with snow/ice mixture Friday evening thru Saturday morning.  3-6" of snow possible.  Thankfully it won't affect the drive down as I'll already be in Lexington Friday afternoon for Trine's 4:30 game.  Saturday will be very cold and then start to warm back up on Sunday.