WBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletics Association

Started by MJA, February 24, 2005, 06:38:32 AM

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scottiedawg

The bottom of the MIAA was once again an anchor on the SOS for the top teams. There are absolutely "better" ways to calculate SOS, but the current formula is well-known and puts the MIAA teams (and not just the MIAA) in a bit of a hole.

Hope and Trine had the best SOS out of the top 4, largely because they each got to play 8 games against MIAA Top 4 teams, while Calvin and Trine only played 7 games.

If (a) the bottom of the league scheduled just a bit easier to boost their WP out of conference (as sac has suggested on the MBB side), (b) Albion scheduled stronger nonCon, (c) Calvin either gets a 2nd win vRRO from nonCon, or schedules more mid-tier nonCon to help their SOS, there's a very good chance the MIAA has 4 teams ranked in Region 7, which helps all of them.

(and I realize it's not any responsibility of the bottom teams in the MIAA to schedule in a way that helps out the top teams)

It's a bizarre dance because of the way SOS is calculated and because there are only 7 ranked teams per region now. But short of changes at the NCAA level, it's a dance you have to engage in to be selected for the NCAA Tournament and to have hosting chances.

This should not in any way be a replacement for the NCAA Criteria, but I maintain a "Current Season Results" model that tries to give teams big rewards for beating strong teams, doesn't dock them for playing a 1-24 team, and doesn't overly dock them for losing to an elite team. It also rewards teams with strong Pt/Reb/To differentials in games played against other strong teams.

MIAA teams and some of the last few Pool C "hopefuls":

Hope, #4
Trine, #17
Emory, #26
Calvin, #32
Mary Washington, #43
Stevens, #58
Albion, #65
SUNY New Paltz, #66
Johns Hopkins, #80
Randolph-Macon, #105

The lack of a Road Multiplier in the WBB WP and SOS formulas also provides zero incentive for a top program to travel to another top program.

That said, in years where Hope believes it has a very strong team (which is every year these days), I do think it makes sense to be more willing to go on the road if that's your only route to scheduling an opponent with a likely strong WP and chance at a win vRRO.

I have zero sense for what's possible/off the table, but Hope/MIAA playing in a 4-team tourney to get games against a Luther/Wartburg, Carroll/Millikin, Bethel/Gustavus, Marietta/Ohio Northern, Hanover/Transylvania, WIAC/WIAC seems to be the only ticket to building a Sectionals hosting resume.  (or just have Trine be elite).

Flying Dutch Fan

Hope (as expected) is hosting a pod this weeked, playing St Norbert.  The other game at the De Vos will be Baldwin-Wallace vs Wartburg.

Quick look at Hope vs St Norbert.  Hope will certainly have a size advantage (St. Norbert has a 5-10 G/F and a 5-11 post, the rest of the team is between5-4 and 5-9):



Offense     % 2pt   % 3pt      % FT
Hope     53.9   38.8      68.2
St Norbert     47.4   30.4      70.8
------             
Defense     % 2pt   % 3pt     
Hope     35.3   27.9     
St Norbert     41.7   26.3     
------             
Rebounding     Team   Opp      Margin
Hope     44.2   31.4      12.8
St Norbert     38.1   35.3      2.8
------             
Scoring     Team   Opp      Margin
Hope     88.3   54.9      33.4
St Norbert     68.3   50.6      17.7
------             
3 point shooting     Made/game        
Hope     9.5        
St Norbert     6.9        
------             
Ball Control     Stl/game   TO/Game      OppTO/Game
Hope     12.5   14.6      21.3
St Norbert     9.7   11.7      18.9
------             
Ball Control     Asst/game   A/TO      Blks/game
Hope     15.9   1.09      2.6
St Norbert     15.9   1.36      1.6
------             
    vRRO   In-Div SOS      Massey Predicts
Hope     4-1   0.523      77
St Norbert     0-2   0.477      55
2016, 2020, 2022 MIAA Pick 'Em Champion

"Sports are kind of like passion and that's temporary in many cases, but academics - that's like true love and that's enduring." 
John Wooden

"Blame FDF.  That's the default.  Always blame FDF."
goodknight

Flying Dutch Fan

And Trine will be headed to Loras, where they will face WashU in the first round
2016, 2020, 2022 MIAA Pick 'Em Champion

"Sports are kind of like passion and that's temporary in many cases, but academics - that's like true love and that's enduring." 
John Wooden

"Blame FDF.  That's the default.  Always blame FDF."
goodknight

NW Hope Fan

"We are told that Christ was killed for us, that His death has washed out our sins, and that by dying He disabled death itself. ... That is Christianity. That is what has to be believed."

C.S. Lewis, Mere Christianity

gordonmann

Hope, CNU, Tufts and Trinity would make a really good national final four.

NW Hope Fan

"We are told that Christ was killed for us, that His death has washed out our sins, and that by dying He disabled death itself. ... That is Christianity. That is what has to be believed."

C.S. Lewis, Mere Christianity

Flying Dutch Fan

Quote from: NW Hope Fan on February 27, 2023, 03:48:42 PM
Quote from: gordonmann on February 27, 2023, 03:37:21 PM
Hope, CNU, Tufts and Trinity would make a really good national final four.

Right?!

Guess they want Hope & Trine to meet in the Championship game and not the semi's
2016, 2020, 2022 MIAA Pick 'Em Champion

"Sports are kind of like passion and that's temporary in many cases, but academics - that's like true love and that's enduring." 
John Wooden

"Blame FDF.  That's the default.  Always blame FDF."
goodknight

HOPEful

Quote from: gordonmann on February 27, 2023, 03:37:21 PM
Hope, CNU, Tufts and Trinity would make a really good national final four.

I also believe that would be three flights regardless of where the sectional was held.

There's a chance that the CNU men could host that weekend should they make it and not end up at St. Joseph.
Let's go Dutchmen!

2015-2016 1-&-Done Tournament Fantasy League Co-Champion

Flying Dutch Fan

Hope pod:


Team     Avg Pos/G   Off Eff (PPP)   Def Eff (PPP)      SOS      vRRO  
Baldwin-Wallace     68.1   0.960   0.800      0.571      4-3
Wartburg     69.7   1.041   0.825      0.574      1-6
St Norbert     66.3   1.029   0.769      0.477      0-2
Hope     73.5   1.201   0.750      0.523      5-1

Massey


Team     Overall Rank   Off Rank   Def Rank      Predicted Score      Win Probability 
Baldwin-Wallace     28   58   23      61      38%
Wartburg     17   11   43      66      62%
-------------------     -------------------   -------------------   -------------------      -------------------      -------------------
St Norbert     53   120   62      55      7%
Hope     2   2   27      77      93%
2016, 2020, 2022 MIAA Pick 'Em Champion

"Sports are kind of like passion and that's temporary in many cases, but academics - that's like true love and that's enduring." 
John Wooden

"Blame FDF.  That's the default.  Always blame FDF."
goodknight

Dutchfan

Quote from: gordonmann on February 27, 2023, 03:37:21 PM
Hope, CNU, Tufts and Trinity would make a really good national final four.
Hope would play Christopher Newport in the third round.

scottiedawg

Quote from: HOPEful on February 27, 2023, 04:39:16 PM
Quote from: gordonmann on February 27, 2023, 03:37:21 PM
Hope, CNU, Tufts and Trinity would make a really good national final four.

I also believe that would be three flights regardless of where the sectional was held.

There's a chance that the CNU men could host that weekend should they make it and not end up at St. Joseph.

That was the most unexpected bracketing for me. I didn't expect them to be able to be so cavalier with potential flights. I like the possibilities it brings though. 

Trinity Texas and Hope are probably two teams whose NCAA Resume underrates their actual ability.

scottiedawg

Quote from: Dutchfan on February 27, 2023, 05:40:44 PM
Quote from: gordonmann on February 27, 2023, 03:37:21 PM
Hope, CNU, Tufts and Trinity would make a really good national final four.
Hope would play Christopher Newport in the third round.

that's Gordon's point.

Dutchfan

Quote from: scottiedawg on February 27, 2023, 05:41:11 PM
Quote from: Dutchfan on February 27, 2023, 05:40:44 PM
Quote from: gordonmann on February 27, 2023, 03:37:21 PM
Hope, CNU, Tufts and Trinity would make a really good national final four.
Hope would play Christopher Newport in the third round.

that's Gordon's point.
Ah, okay. I'm busy making  maple syrup and apparently didn't read it correctly.

scottiedawg

I wanted to watch the full Hope v Trine MIAA title game as I was at Hope-Calvin MBB. Seems it's disappeared from the Hope Athletics YouTube page?!?

Riley Zayas

Quote from: scottiedawg on February 28, 2023, 08:07:54 PM
I wanted to watch the full Hope v Trine MIAA title game as I was at Hope-Calvin MBB. Seems it's disappeared from the Hope Athletics YouTube page?!?


Yep :(

I went to my search history, found the link for the game, and it comes up saying video is unavailable. Not sure why. I guess maybe they don't want recent film out there? Trine-Calvin (from the semis) is still available

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