WBB: Michigan Intercollegiate Athletics Association

[scottiedawg]

The bottom of the MIAA was once again an anchor on the SOS for the top teams. There are absolutely "better" ways to calculate SOS, but the current formula is well-known and puts the MIAA teams (and not just the MIAA) in a bit of a hole.

Hope and Trine had the best SOS out of the top 4, largely because they each got to play 8 games against MIAA Top 4 teams, while Calvin and Trine only played 7 games.

If (a) the bottom of the league scheduled just a bit easier to boost their WP out of conference (as sac has suggested on the MBB side), (b) Albion scheduled stronger nonCon, (c) Calvin either gets a 2nd win vRRO from nonCon, or schedules more mid-tier nonCon to help their SOS, there's a very good chance the MIAA has 4 teams ranked in Region 7, which helps all of them.

(and I realize it's not any responsibility of the bottom teams in the MIAA to schedule in a way that helps out the top teams)

It's a bizarre dance because of the way SOS is calculated and because there are only 7 ranked teams per region now. But short of changes at the NCAA level, it's a dance you have to engage in to be selected for the NCAA Tournament and to have hosting chances.

This should not in any way be a replacement for the NCAA Criteria, but I maintain a "Current Season Results" model that tries to give teams big rewards for beating strong teams, doesn't dock them for playing a 1-24 team, and doesn't overly dock them for losing to an elite team. It also rewards teams with strong Pt/Reb/To differentials in games played against other strong teams.

MIAA teams and some of the last few Pool C "hopefuls":

Hope, #4
Trine, #17
Emory, #26
Calvin, #32
Mary Washington, #43
Stevens, #58
Albion, #65
SUNY New Paltz, #66
Johns Hopkins, #80
Randolph-Macon, #105

The lack of a Road Multiplier in the WBB WP and SOS formulas also provides zero incentive for a top program to travel to another top program.

That said, in years where Hope believes it has a very strong team (which is every year these days), I do think it makes sense to be more willing to go on the road if that's your only route to scheduling an opponent with a likely strong WP and chance at a win vRRO.

I have zero sense for what's possible/off the table, but Hope/MIAA playing in a 4-team tourney to get games against a Luther/Wartburg, Carroll/Millikin, Bethel/Gustavus, Marietta/Ohio Northern, Hanover/Transylvania, WIAC/WIAC seems to be the only ticket to building a Sectionals hosting resume.  (or just have Trine be elite).

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Hope (as expected) is hosting a pod this weeked, playing St Norbert.  The other game at the De Vos will be Baldwin-Wallace vs Wartburg.

Quick look at Hope vs St Norbert.  Hope will certainly have a size advantage (St. Norbert has a 5-10 G/F and a 5-11 post, the rest of the team is between5-4 and 5-9):

Offense	% 2pt	% 3pt	% FT
Hope	53.9	38.8	68.2
St Norbert	47.4	30.4	70.8
------
Defense	% 2pt	% 3pt
Hope	35.3	27.9
St Norbert	41.7	26.3
------
Rebounding	Team	Opp	Margin
Hope	44.2	31.4	12.8
St Norbert	38.1	35.3	2.8
------
Scoring	Team	Opp	Margin
Hope	88.3	54.9	33.4
St Norbert	68.3	50.6	17.7
------
3 point shooting	Made/game
Hope	9.5
St Norbert	6.9
------
Ball Control	Stl/game	TO/Game	OppTO/Game
Hope	12.5	14.6	21.3
St Norbert	9.7	11.7	18.9
------
Ball Control	Asst/game	A/TO	Blks/game
Hope	15.9	1.09	2.6
St Norbert	15.9	1.36	1.6
------
	vRRO	In-Div SOS	Massey Predicts
Hope	4-1	0.523	77
St Norbert	0-2	0.477	55

[Flying Dutch Fan]

And Trine will be headed to Loras, where they will face WashU in the first round

[NW Hope Fan]

Top right looks like a tough road!

[gordonmann]

Hope, CNU, Tufts and Trinity would make a really good national final four.

[NW Hope Fan]

Hope, CNU, Tufts and Trinity would make a really good national final four.

Right?!

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Hope, CNU, Tufts and Trinity would make a really good national final four.

Right?!

Guess they want Hope & Trine to meet in the Championship game and not the semi's

[HOPEful]

Hope, CNU, Tufts and Trinity would make a really good national final four.

I also believe that would be three flights regardless of where the sectional was held.

There's a chance that the CNU men could host that weekend should they make it and not end up at St. Joseph.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Hope pod:

Team	Avg Pos/G	Off Eff (PPP)	Def Eff (PPP)	SOS	vRRO
Baldwin-Wallace	68.1	0.960	0.800	0.571	4-3
Wartburg	69.7	1.041	0.825	0.574	1-6
St Norbert	66.3	1.029	0.769	0.477	0-2
Hope	73.5	1.201	0.750	0.523	5-1

Massey

Team	Overall Rank	Off Rank	Def Rank	Predicted Score	Win Probability
Baldwin-Wallace	28	58	23	61	38%
Wartburg	17	11	43	66	62%
-------------------	-------------------	-------------------	-------------------	-------------------	-------------------
St Norbert	53	120	62	55	7%
Hope	2	2	27	77	93%

[Dutchfan]

Hope, CNU, Tufts and Trinity would make a really good national final four.

Hope would play Christopher Newport in the third round.

[scottiedawg]

Hope, CNU, Tufts and Trinity would make a really good national final four.

I also believe that would be three flights regardless of where the sectional was held.

There's a chance that the CNU men could host that weekend should they make it and not end up at St. Joseph.

That was the most unexpected bracketing for me. I didn't expect them to be able to be so cavalier with potential flights. I like the possibilities it brings though. 

Trinity Texas and Hope are probably two teams whose NCAA Resume underrates their actual ability.

[scottiedawg]

Hope, CNU, Tufts and Trinity would make a really good national final four.

Hope would play Christopher Newport in the third round.

that's Gordon's point.

[Dutchfan]

Hope, CNU, Tufts and Trinity would make a really good national final four.

Hope would play Christopher Newport in the third round.

that's Gordon's point.

Ah, okay. I'm busy making  maple syrup and apparently didn't read it correctly.

[scottiedawg]

I wanted to watch the full Hope v Trine MIAA title game as I was at Hope-Calvin MBB. Seems it's disappeared from the Hope Athletics YouTube page?!?

[Riley Zayas]

I wanted to watch the full Hope v Trine MIAA title game as I was at Hope-Calvin MBB. Seems it's disappeared from the Hope Athletics YouTube page?!?

Yep

I went to my search history, found the link for the game, and it comes up saying video is unavailable. Not sure why. I guess maybe they don't want recent film out there? Trine-Calvin (from the semis) is still available