FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[DuffMan]

Yeah but if we were playing the Knights Broadcast Drinking Game ... a shot after each time he hypes the brats ... we would have missed the second half.

No doubt! 

I've always thought these level broadcasts would be much improved if the PBP and color guys stayed in their lanes. The SJU broadcast would certainly improve if VOJ turned down the commentary and let the rest of his team shine.

Wholeheartedly agree.  He could also tone down his man-crush on Pete Cheeley.

[hazzben]

I've always thought these level broadcasts would be much improved if the PBP and color guys stayed in their lanes. The SJU broadcast would certainly improve if VOJ turned down the commentary and let the rest of his team shine.

I've never thought of it this way, but now that you say it, totally agree. Conversely, there's no denying from a production quality standpoint, SJU is setting the curve nationally.

[faunch]

I've always thought these level broadcasts would be much improved if the PBP and color guys stayed in their lanes. The SJU broadcast would certainly improve if VOJ turned down the commentary and let the rest of his team shine.

I've never thought of it this way, but now that you say it, totally agree. Conversely, there's no denying from a production quality standpoint, SJU is setting the curve nationally.

I'm preparing myself to be disappointed in a couple weeks when the Johnnies are at St. Scholastica. I recall they haven't found the zoom feature on their camera yet.

[sjujohnnie]

Just saw this! Apparently the NCAA has created a new system/criteria to determine the 12 at-large teams that will join the 28 automatic bids (conference winners) in the postseason. St John's is listed as the #1 team based on this criteria. North Central is down at #5.

https://gojohnnies.com/news/2024/10/21/football-johnnies-are-no-1-in-ncaas-npi-no-4-in-afca-poll.aspx

[DuffMan]

Just saw this!

Dude, you need to start listening to Pat's podcast. 
 

[hazzben]

New NPI is gonna take some getting used to.

MIAC Notable Rankings:
1. SJU - NPI - 75.48 | Pool C +/- +12.38 | Pool C Rank n/a | Overall seed 1 (1)
27. St. Olaf - 65.37 | Pool C +/- +2.27 | Pool C Rank 8 of 12 | Overal seed 27 (6)
33. Bethel - 63.62 | Pool C +/- +0.52 | Pool C Rank 12 of 12 | Overall seed 33 (8)
66. Concordia Moorhead - 57.35 | Pool C +/- -6.28 | Pool C Rank 38 of 12 | Overall Seed n/a
83. GAC - 55.13 | Pool C +/- -8.49 | Pool C Rank 54 of 12 | Overall Seed n/a

From USee on CCIW Board:

The caluclation for NPI are taken from these: Win%/SOS--which is one number;  Home/Away Win/Loss, Quality win bonus (QWB) and 5 minimum wins (i.e. your 5 best wins are used to calculate the NPI). Each of these has a weighting and a multiplier. The weightings are the "dials" the natiional committee uses before each season to determine NPI. These can be adjusted but only during the offseason. Once they are set, thats it. So the weighting for this year for Win%/SOS is 40% Win% and 60% SOS. In basketball its 25/75.

"Minimum wins" part of the calculation is not a minimum win criteria for entry, its a minimum win that goes into your NPI calculation. So as the season wears on, your NPI will change based on who you play.

For example, the baseline NPI for football is 54. If you play beat a team with a 54 or better NPI your NPI goes up and you get a "quality win bonus" (QWB). If you beat a team with a lower than 54 NPI your NPI goes down. upon getting to 6 wins, your "worst win" drops out of the calculation.

Right now GAC just squeaks in for NPI QWB with 55.13.
St. Olaf will be an interesting story with Augsburg, GAC, and SJU down the stretch.

[hazzben]

WIAC Notables, without going into crazy detail. UWO ranked 9 overall. UWP and UWRF are Pool C ranks of 1 and 2 respectively.

UWO to play UWS and UWRF.
UWRF to play UWL, UWW, UWO.
UWP to play UWW and UWS.
UWW finishes with UWP, UWRF, and UWL.

Crazy season the rest of the way. UWO in clear Pool A poll position based on record and remaining schedule. UWW, while currently on the outside looking in, will make a huge NPI move if they win out. Not only moving into position for a Pool C, but also all but eliminating the rest of the league from Pool C consideration.

[hazzben]

Hansen Ratings makes it even more interesting.

His "resume ranking" has SJU #5 and Bethel #24.

His "predictive ranking" has SJU #7 and Bethel #10.

My arm chair reading is that the former is where things stand as they are today. The latter is where Hansen's model anticipates its own rank of teams at season's end. Which has no bearing on NPI, but is interesting in getting a read on where his numbers expect the dust to settle.

[AO]

Hansen Ratings makes it even more interesting.

His "resume ranking" has SJU #5 and Bethel #24.

His "predictive ranking" has SJU #7 and Bethel #10.

My arm chair reading is that the former is where things stand as they are today. The latter is where Hansen's model anticipates its own rank of teams at season's end. Which has no bearing on NPI, but is interesting in getting a read on where his numbers expect the dust to settle.

I would say the resume rankings is more about who you beat and the predictive is more about "regardless of who you played, how good are you". So you'd want to bet based upon the predictive ratings but I think most people would want to pick at-large teams based on the resume ratings. Neither one is a guess about where things will stand at the end of the season.

As expected the NPI that ignores margin of victory and thus has a poor strength of schedule metric is going to give us a few teams that are overrated like Lake Forest. With the extra at-large teams getting selected you probably can't get too upset about the picks this year, everybody's got a better chance.

[OzJohnnie]

Well, rankings or ratings never won a game.  Nice feedback, though.

[Retired Old Rat]

Hansen Ratings makes it even more interesting.

His "resume ranking" has SJU #5 and Bethel #24.

His "predictive ranking" has SJU #7 and Bethel #10.

My arm chair reading is that the former is where things stand as they are today. The latter is where Hansen's model anticipates its own rank of teams at season's end. Which has no bearing on NPI, but is interesting in getting a read on where his numbers expect the dust to settle.

Note- Hanson's ratings are only for game through 10/13.  Last week's games will shake some things up with his ratings.

And, as Usee points out, this ranking is dynamic and as teams get to 6,7,8 wins their NPI can change dramatically based on who those wins are against making the last few weeks of the season pretty interesting.

[DuffMan]

Well, rankings or ratings never won a game.  Nice feedback, though.

Rankings don't get rings. 

[hazzben]

Well, rankings or ratings never won a game.  Nice feedback, though.

Rankings don't get rings. 

Sure they don't. But they will set who gets the top 8 seeds and home field for two rounds. And who gets at large bids. Both of those are things that matter to multiple MIAC schools right now.

You're saying SJU doesn't care one bit about where it will play and if it would be hosting 1, 2, or all pre-Stagg rounds?

[DuffMan]

I'm not saying that.  I just don't really put too much stock in them; the ring is what I care about.

Frankly, no matter what the pollsters or the NCAA's NPI say, you've got to prove it on the field.  That's what's great about D3.

[hazzben]

I actually don't put much stock in NPI as a great metric. It's just the only one that matters.