FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[Frank Rossi]

We've got Regional Rankings... Final time for the season that we'll see them:

http://d3blogs.com/d3football/2010/11/10/ncaas-third-regional-rankings/

[tommiegun]

I think these regional rankings are giving me false hope that, as I began believing 3 weeks ago, St. Thomas will be #1 in the West, Whitewater will be #1 in the North, Mount goes East, and Wesley stays south.

My best guess, if this happens, is that the West Region looks like this:

1. St. Thomas
2. Wartburg
3. Bethel
4. Cal Lutheran
5. Linfield
6. Coe
7. Central
8. St. Norbert's

I realize it doesn't really matter where you put the West Coast game (3/6. 4/5) since the two teams will always play each other right away, but thought it made the most sense for the penny pinching NCAA to fly the west coast winner to a (presumably) cheaper airport in Minneapolis than in Iowa.  I also think its possible that the Coe/Bethel game could be a Coe home game.

[d-train]

I think these regional rankings are giving me false hope that, as I began believing 3 weeks ago, St. Thomas will be #1 in the West, Whitewater will be #1 in the North, Mount goes East, and Wesley stays south.

My best guess, if this happens, is that the West Region looks like this:

1. St. Thomas
2. Wartburg
3. Bethel
4. Cal Lutheran
5. Linfield
6. Coe
7. Central
8. St. Norbert's

I realize it doesn't really matter where you put the West Coast game (3/6. 4/5) since the two teams will always play each other right away, but thought it made the most sense for the penny pinching NCAA to fly the west coast winner to a (presumably) cheaper airport in Minneapolis than in Iowa.  I also think its possible that the Coe/Bethel game could be a Coe home game.

Central's not getting in.

[hazzben]

Barring absolute chaos amongst 1 loss teams on Saturday, Central has zero chance at making the field.

I've got a feeling UWW still jumps UST in the final ranking. Even if they didn't, the selection committee could still give UWW the top seed over UST. More interesting, could this be the West region committees way of trying to ensure that UST gets the 4th #1, thereby moving UWW North...they wouldn't be that bold would they 

[CobberHawkeye]

Last season on the Halloween game Gophers vs. Mich. State @ The Bank- I was the guest of an old boss of mine, who is a Penn State alum.- he reminded me that no matter how nice the new TCF stadium is, that there is nothing like the experience in Happy Valley!

Well, that same happy comment is regularly made by fans from Texas, Nebraska, Michigan and every team in the SEC.

Agreed.  Having been to a game at Penn State (happily watching them crush the Rodents 44-14 in '05), I thought the crowd both inside and outside to be rather benign. Don't get me wrong, the view was great in Oct. with the Nittany Mtns. in color, and it could have been the lack of need to get fired up for the opponent, but I was underwhelmed.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Barring absolute chaos amongst 1 loss teams on Saturday, Central has zero chance at making the field.

I've got a feeling UWW still jumps UST in the final ranking. Even if they didn't, the selection committee could still give UWW the top seed over UST. More interesting, could this be the West region committees way of trying to ensure that UST gets the 4th #1, thereby moving UWW North...they wouldn't be that bold would they 

That, combined with the north jumping UMU over NCC, is certainly how I read it.

The north region rankings are a travesty.  Last week's rankings were #1 Wheaton  #2 NCC  #3 UMU.  Saturday, NCC decisively beat Wheaton (AT Wheaton).  How can the committee conceivably justify jumping UMU over NCC NOW??!!  (Mind you, I personally would have had UMU #1 all along, but jumping them THIS WEEK?! )

The committees may have made one blunder if they are 'colluding' to select St. Thomas over NCC - while St. John's did not enter the west rankings (so the Tommies still have only one win over a regionally-ranked opponent), NCC picked up TWO such wins in the last week (as IWU entered the rankings at #8)!

[sju56321]

It seems like the regional ranking for the West sets up a nice bracket, remove the #8 ranked team and substitute with St. Norbert-an AQ. If you make UST a #1 seed, then you need another #8 seed-who would that be? Think NCAA-few flights as possible.

[tmerton]

It seems like the regional ranking for the West sets up a nice bracket, remove the #8 ranked team and substitute with St. Norbert-an AQ. If you make UST a #1 seed, then you need another #8 seed-who would that be? Think NCAA-few flights as possible.

Hey, the Johnnies are close.  And I'm sure the boys would love another crack at UST!  [And before Pat jumps in to advise me that SJU is nowhere close to getting in, trust me that is well understood.]  Edit - I also believe that the Jays are better than whatever team will get that spot.  They just got the short straw this year.  Whatever.  Good luck to UST and Bethel.

[d-train]

It seems like the regional ranking for the West sets up a nice bracket, remove the #8 ranked team and substitute with St. Norbert-an AQ. If you make UST a #1 seed, then you need another #8 seed-who would that be? Think NCAA-few flights as possible.

Benedictine, Ill (Pool A - NATHC)
Chicago is also a possible Pool B

[hazzben]

It seems like the regional ranking for the West sets up a nice bracket, remove the #8 ranked team and substitute with St. Norbert-an AQ. If you make UST a #1 seed, then you need another #8 seed-who would that be? Think NCAA-few flights as possible.

Benedictine, Ill (Pool A - NATHC)
Chicago is also a possible Pool B

Here would be a couple possibilities:
Wheaton (admittedly outside the box): 278 miles to Wartburg, 391 to Bethel, 204 to Coe, 388 to UST , 217 to SNC
Benedictine: 277 to Wartburg, 203 to Coe, 410 to Bethel, etc.
Chicago: similar distances to the above.

All that to say...they've got some options. And last year they were even willing to bring in UMHB.

[hazzben]

Frank Rossi from the Pool C thread:
Predicted SoS, Quality Wins & Quality Losses for Pool C candidates:

South
Hampden-Sydney (8-1, 0.524) -- Predicted SoS: 0.539 (0.549/0.519) -- QW: 8S, QL: 6S
Hardin-Simmons (8-1, 0.502) -- Predicted SoS: 0.517 (0.518/0.516) -- QL: 2S
** Washington U. (7-2 (4-1 Reg.), 0.442) -- Predicted SoS: 0.484 (0.473/0.507) -- QW: 10N, QL: 5N

North
Wheaton (Ill.) (8-1, 0.604) -- Predicted SoS: 0.592 (0.597/0.583) -- QW: 8N, QL: 2N
Ohio Northern (8-1 (7-1 Reg.), 0.512) -- Predicted SoS: 0.513 (0.513/0.513) -- QW: 9N, QL: 1N
* Wittenberg (9-0, 0.416) -- Predicted SoS: 0.430 (0.391/0.509) -- QW: 10N
* Trine (9-0 (8-0 Reg.), 0.379) -- Predicted SoS: 0.406 (0.356/0.507) -- No QW/QL
** Wabash (7-2 (7-1 Reg.), 0.525) -- Predicted SoS: 0.561 (0.602/0.478) -- QL: 5N

East
* Cortland (8-1, 0.491) -- Predicted SoS: 0.506 (0.504/0.510) -- QW: 3E, QL: 2E
* Rowan (8-1, 0.497) -- Predicted SoS: 0.498 (0.493/0.507) -- QW: 4E, QL: 3E
Montclair St. (8-1, 0.500) -- Predicted SoS: 0.493 (0.488/0.503) -- QW: 2E, QL: 4E

West
Redlands (7-1, 0.503) -- Predicted SoS: 0.514 (0.502/0.538) -- QL: 4W
Bethel (8-1, 0.513) -- Predicted SoS: 0.507 (0.488/0.545) -- QL: 1W
Coe (8-1 (6-1 Reg.), 0.543) -- Predicted SoS: 0.498 (0.500/0.494) -- QW: 10W, QL: 3W
Pac. Luth. (7-1 (6-1 Reg.), 0.463) -- Predicted SoS: 0.487 (0.473/0.514) -- QW: 4W, QL 7W

* - Team May Still Win Its Conference's Pool A Bid
** - Team Included Since In-Reg. Record Includes Just One Loss

After Win/Loss Records are NCAA SoS -- Predicted SoS (Predicted OWP/Predicted OOWP) -- Quality Wins (QW) (with ranking and region of the team), Quality Losses (QL).  If Regional Record for team differs, a second W/L record is in inner parentheses, indicated with "Reg."

NOTE: These numbers should be used carefully, as wins and losses by opponents already played will cause SoS figures to change, sometimes by as much as 0.040 this late in the season.  These numbers are merely estimates and take into account only games played to this date and the remaining opponents' W/L % and OWP figures.

Using this, here is how I [Frank] would line up the board for each region:

South: 1) Hampden-Sydney; 2) Hardin-Simmons; 3) Ursinus (Using Reg. Rankings and assuming Salisbury goes through Pool B)

North: 1) Wheaton; 2) Ohio Northern; 3) Illinois Wesleyan (or Wittenberg/Trine if a loss occurs)

East: 1) Rowan; 2) Montclair; 3) Springfield (I know the first two are troublesome, but the Committee may use the "last quarter of the season" principle to justify this ordering over the head-to-head in Week 2)

West: 1) Bethel; 2) Redlands; 3) Coe (Based on the "better" quality loss Bethel had)

And when they go to picking:
1) Wheaton
2) Hampden-Sydney
3) Ohio Northern
4) Hardin-Simmons
5) Bethel
6) Rowan

[sju56321]

What I didn't artfully articulate yesterday was, why bring in teams from Illinois when the regional ranking sets up nicely for the region. It seems as if the "North" has plenty of teams without bringing in UWW for the #1 seed.

[tmerton]

Gags ahead of the curve again.

It's going to be interesting to see where these concerns about concussions take us in the years to come.  

[DuffMan]

Will this week mark Ray Grant's first reception of the season???

[GoldandBlueBU]

Will this week mark Ray Grant's first reception of the season???

I highly doubt it, he is saving his catches for the NFL. 

It is on the Johnnies to preserve the full season shutout...