FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[OzJohnnie]

It's great to see that the Johnnies beat the Gusties in soccer and advanced to the MIAC finals.  Good luck to the boys.  And I looked up the box score.  I must admit that I was too cynical in my view of soccer.  There were not mere 8 shots on goal during the 90 minute contest as I predicted.  Instead there were 10.  That's one every 9 minutes.  A genuine barn burner.

[hazzben]

Only Bethel can "afford to lose" and still stand a good chance at getting into the playoffs. Two things concern me about that potential loss. The first is that even though they would have the same record as Concordia, and have beaten them during the year I seem to recall that the MIAC has a tie-breaker rule saying the team that has been out of the playoffs the longest would win the conference automatic qualifier. Does anyone know for certain if this is the case? Secondly, I believe I also read somewhere that the NCAA selection committee can take into account how a team is trending at the end of the season in determining between two fairly equal teams. As Bethel's defeat would be in the last game of the season I see that as a downward trend and hurts their pool C standings. Again, did I read too much into the NCAA criteria or mistakenly interpret it incorrectly?

If Bethel finishes with only 1 loss, they'd get the A bid. The first tie-breaker is H2H results. No other MIAC team outside the Cobbers can finish with 1 loss. So Bethel would be in as the Auto bid and how they were trending at season's end would only affect their seeding.

So to summarize, if Bethel wins one more game, they are a lock for Pool A and don't have to worry about Pool C.

Summary: Priority #1 - Beat St. Olaf. Priority #2 - Beat SJU. Priority #3 - Win both convincingly over the final two weeks and make our case for a #1 seed!

[sjusection105]

From Frank's Blog in the Daily Planet:
Bruns resumed practicing last week after sitting out a win at Carleton on Oct. 19 with a sprained foot. He did dress against the Gusties last week, but did not see action.He and Martin have both taken reps with the first team this week.

"We plan on playing both those guys," Fasching said. "We're not sure how we're going to do it yet – whether it will be by series or we let a guy go for a few series. But both those guys are ready to go and we want to get both of them in there."

Fasching said the coaching staff will probably make a decision on which player starts after practice on Friday. He added that Bruns is ready to play.

"He's not 100 percent yet, but he's close enough and we want to get him back out there and competing," Fasching said.

[OzJohnnie]

Two quarterbacks?  We'll be twice as good then. Just like the Vikings.

Edit:  I know they are doing the best they can and they would do better if they could. If they wanted to play one QB they would have to play who is healthy. So they must really want to get Bruns into the game. But he's too injured to name as the sole starter or they would. So I bet they make their starter decision based on how he's feeling and they platoon him against HAM in the hopes he has enough game time to toughen up for the big contest against BU.

That's my rational thought - which I have from time to time. More fun being the bastard, though.

[Retired Old Rat]

Correction Oz, the Viqueens have 3 quarterbacks.  Unfortunately, none of them appear to be NFL starting quarterbacks.

[sjusection105]

Two quarterbacks?  We'll be twice as good then. Just like the Vikings.

Edit:  I know they are doing the best they can and they would do better if they could. If they wanted to play one QB they would have to play who is healthy. So they must really want to get Bruns into the game. But he's too injured to name as the sole starter or they would. So I bet they make their starter decision based on how he's feeling and they platoon him against HAM in the hopes he has enough game time to toughen up for the big contest against BU.

That's my rational thought - which I have from time to time. More fun being the bastard, though.

I tend to agree with you Oz. This is where the rubber hits the road. They have two games left and 8-2 is they best case scenario. The team is being held together with duct tape & baling wire. They lost Lortz to a knee injury. Both starting offensive tackles are questionable for Saturday. Matuska is out. The coaching staff is going to do whatever they can to put out a team that has a fighting chance for the last two games of the season.

[Mr.MIAC]

So let's say the following happens:

1.   Bethel beats St. Olaf and SJU
2.   UST beats Concordia and St. Olaf
3.   Concordia beats Gustavus
4.   SJU beats Hamline

End of season MIAC standings would be:

1.   Bethel (8-0)
2.   UST (6-2)
3.   Concordia (6-2)
4.   SJU (5-3)

What are the chances of a UST post-season given its national rankings throughout the season, its performance last year, and these standings?

[Retired Old Rat]

Highly unlikely, me thinks, that a 2 loss team makes the playoffs.

[OzJohnnie]

Give the criteria you list their chances are exactly 1 in 0.  Those criteria are not considered, as I'm sure you're aware.

More seriously however, read this article @ d3football on this topic.  Unfortunately, the Tommies are barely on the radar.  Standing in front of you in line are:

Wabash/Witt loser
John Carroll/Heidleberg winner (and maybe the loser)
Illinois Weslyan
Wheaton
UW-Osh/UW Plat winner
PLut

And Pacific is on the edge of consideration like UST.  So, you don't need just SJU and CON to stumble, you need three more as well and Pacific to not outshine you.  Basically, you need everyone in front of the Tommies to fall over dead in order to make it and lose in the first round.

[sjusection105]

Give the criteria you list their chances are exactly 1 in 0.  Those criteria are not considered, as I'm sure you're aware.

More seriously however, read this article @ d3football on this topic.  Unfortunately, the Tommies are barely on the radar.  Standing in front of you in line are:

Wabash/Witt loser
John Carroll/Heidleberg winner (and maybe the loser)
Illinois Weslyan
Wheaton
UW-Osh/UW Plat winner
PLut

And Pacific is on the edge of consideration like UST.  So, you don't need just SJU and CON to stumble, you need three more as well and Pacific to not outshine you.  Basically, you need everyone in front of the Tommies to fall over dead in order to make it and lose in the first round.

But Oz, what you are failing to take into your analysis is that during the first 2 weeks of the season UST was *almost* Co-#1 in the Top 25 poll.....

[art76]

Give the criteria you list their chances are exactly 1 in 0.  Those criteria are not considered, as I'm sure you're aware.

More seriously however, read this article @ d3football on this topic.  Unfortunately, the Tommies are barely on the radar.  Standing in front of you in line are:

Wabash/Witt loser
John Carroll/Heidleberg winner (and maybe the loser)
Illinois Weslyan
Wheaton
UW-Osh/UW Plat winner
PLut

And Pacific is on the edge of consideration like UST.  So, you don't need just SJU and CON to stumble, you need three more as well and Pacific to not outshine you.  Basically, you need everyone in front of the Tommies to fall over dead in order to make it and lose in the first round.

Also, (if I understand things correctly), any teams left over after Pool B selections are done also get tossed into the Pool C selection process. According to the above article, that's two additional teams, as there are 5 teams for 3 spots in that Pool.

[skunks_sidekick]

Give the criteria you list their chances are exactly 1 in 0.  Those criteria are not considered, as I'm sure you're aware.

More seriously however, read this article @ d3football on this topic.  Unfortunately, the Tommies are barely on the radar.  Standing in front of you in line are:

Wabash/Witt loser
John Carroll/Heidleberg winner (and maybe the loser)
Illinois Weslyan
Wheaton
UW-Osh/UW Plat winner
PLut

And Pacific is on the edge of consideration like UST.  So, you don't need just SJU and CON to stumble, you need three more as well and Pacific to not outshine you.  Basically, you need everyone in front of the Tommies to fall over dead in order to make it and lose in the first round.

So you're saying there's a chance!   

BRILLIANCE WITHOUT BORDERS

[art76]

Conjecture question now concerning the seedings (that are only 9 days away):

Using the SOS scores and what we know of teams, and what we can expect from the selection committee, it seems to look like the top 4 teams in each bracket will be as follows (as things look right now):

East: Mount Union (sorry Hobart fans)
South: UMHB
West: Bethel (sorry Linfield fans)
North: UW Whitewater (sorry North Central fans)

All right, with all that before us, does one suppose that to avoid #1 and #2 in the polls (and I know that the committee doesn't use that criteria when selecting the teams) playing one another in the semi-finals like what happened last year, that they might rank them as I have them listed so as to force #1 to play #4 (UMU vs. UWW) and #2 to play #3 (UMHB vs. BU) in the semi-finals , should all 4 teams win out? Basically, should we expect (hope for) the brackets to be South and West on one side and North and East on the other?

PS. Incidentally, this also gives the top two teams from the top two conferences an opportunity to play against one another for the Walnut and Bronze.

[hazzben]

Possible Art. Also possible Bethel goes north and UWW stays west. I'm not sure how they set the brackets though. They've done some surprising stuff in the past. There was a year when Mount was as strong as ever and they had it set for them to go on the road. But the team who would have hosted them lost.

[SJUrube]

Duff, didn't you keep future NFL RB,Fred Jackson in check that day?

Come to think of it, yes, we laid the smackdown on Freddie Jackson and the rest of the Kohawks. 

Freddie Jackson ran for 150 yards on 29 carries:
http://www.d3football.com/seasons/2002/contrib/20131107kzz3uu

The Coe game was fun. I remember there was a lot of talk of their NFL caliber RB, Fred Jackson, going into the game. Throughout and after the game I recall not having been overly impressed with him but I find myself really pulling for him with the Bills. He's had highly touted draft picks come in who were set to replace him but the Bills continue to keep him on the field. Even after finishing last year with an injury he's bounced back nicely. Good for him.

As Pat noted he did finish the '02 game at SJU with 150 yards. I thought it would be interesting to look at how many yards/carries he received by each quarter to see if he picked up a lot of garbage yards late.

1st Quarter:       2nd Quarter        3rd Quarter        4th Quarter
12 carries            8 carries              3 carries            6 carries
37 yards             68 yards               9 yards             36 yards
Long: 12 yds       Long: 34 yds        Long: 5 yds        Long: 15 yds
3.1 YPC               8.5 YPC                3 YPC                6 YPC

At the half the score was 24-7 SJU so it's safe to say Jackson did some work while the game as still in question. But I don't recall every having the sense that SJU was in trouble, especially after taking the opening drive and scoring a quick TD.