FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[retagent]

I would say it's a very fragile #10. If they don't win out, they are gone from the RR. My question is: How are they ranked behind UST in the Poll?

[bleedpurple]

I would say it's a very fragile #10. If they don't win out, they are gone from the RR. My question is: How are they ranked behind UST in the Poll?

I understand the need for criteria of some sort. But in processing all of it, I think some people/committees can't see the forest for the trees. Here's a thought for "rankers" everywhere. When teams have the same record and there is a head to head result (and not a third team involved), rank the winning team ahead of the losing team and move on to the next data point to sort the rest of it out.

The other head scratcher to me, just looking at the results of the games so far, is why St. Thomas is ahead of C-M in the D3 poll. I know it will be either validated or rectified on the field today, but seems out of place at the moment. 

[RoyalsFan]

I would say it's a very fragile #10. If they don't win out, they are gone from the RR. My question is: How are they ranked behind UST in the Poll?

My take is different polls, different rankers, different results. Since there is no hard criteria for ranking, it's just opinions.

[faunch]

I would say it's a very fragile #10. If they don't win out, they are gone from the RR. My question is: How are they ranked behind UST in the Poll?

true on that...same record but SJU won head to head.  doesn't make sense.

[sfury]

Tough day for my cousin's husband Eric Johnson. Assistant coach for Andover, they lost 21-20 to Chaska in the playoffs on a missed extra point in the fourth quarter.

He's a Hamline grad, was a member of the last team to beat SJU in 1994 and was on the team that nearly beat them in 1996. So his Pipers lost.

And...his Hamline single-season rushing record -- which he set during that 1996 season -- fell today to Austin Duncan.

[art76]

OK, I'll be the first to post - Bethel clinches with the St. Thomas win this afternoon. I was at the Bethel game and I felt bad for the Oles, really. Bethel had their way with them from the get-go and even when the second and third stringers were in for some of the third quarter until the end of the game. I thought it was very impressive to see the second squad chew up over 7 minutes of time at the end of the game and then just turn it over on downs with 13 seconds left. (And it was classy not to punch it in to run up the score.)

St. John's is going to have their hands full next week. As I posted here earlier, now that we have seen both Bethel and St. John's play the same to opponents in the same order, (Gustavus and Hamline), we get a glimpse into what to expect in next week's game in Collegeville. I think the Johnnies can expect to end the season with a 7 and 3 record and feel good about it.

Those of you that follow the box score will probably notice that BU used a different punter this week. Their starter went out in the first defensive series getting a knee to the back of the head during a pile up. (He plays outside linebacker on the D.) They pulled him quickly and he stood on the sidelines for the rest of the half and came out after half-time with his shoulder pads off also. I sure hope he's ok for the long haul.

[hazzben]

OK, I'll be the first to post - Bethel clinches with the St. Thomas win this afternoon. I was at the Bethel game and I felt bad for the Oles, really. Bethel had their way with them from the get-go and even when the second and third stringers were in for some of the third quarter until the end of the game. I thought it was very impressive to see the second squad chew up over 7 minutes of time at the end of the game and then just turn it over on downs with 13 seconds left. (And it was classy not to punch it in to run up the score.)

St. John's is going to have their hands full next week. As I posted here earlier, now that we have seen both Bethel and St. John's play the same to opponents in the same order, (Gustavus and Hamline), we get a glimpse into what to expect in next week's game in Collegeville. I think the Johnnies can expect to end the season with a 7 and 3 record and feel good about it.

Those of you that follow the box score will probably notice that BU used a different punter this week. Their starter went out in the first defensive series getting a knee to the back of the head during a pile up. (He plays outside linebacker on the D.) They pulled him quickly and he stood on the sidelines for the rest of the half and came out after half-time with his shoulder pads off also. I sure hope he's ok for the long haul.

SJU still has a very outside shot at the postseason. Pacific losing helps. And a win next week over Bethel, to go along with the UST win would be hard to ignore. The question would be if they could even get on the board for Pool C consideration. I say all that simply to point out that St. Johns isn't just going to roll over (not that you're suggesting this). Even if SJU didn't make the playoffs, finishing with wins over Bethel and UST would be a huge step back to normal for the program. I'm expecting the type of effort we saw against UST earlier this year, although I do expect Bethel to win.

Injuries are my bigger concern. Hopefully he can go next week against SJU. Relying on a backup punter is just the kind of quirk that can make the game closer than normal. More than that though, I want to see us finish out the season on a healthy note. Aside from losing our starting kicker in week 1 against Wartburg, we've really had a remarkably healthy year (knock on wood).

Expecting a great game in Collegeville next week. Hoping to hear a very despondent VOJ on the radio! 

[Chubbs]

Hazz,
The starting kicker got hurt?  I guess I missed that.

While I'd like the think that BU will cruise over SJ1 and the results against recent common opponents seem to suggest that...I think we've all seen enough to know better than that.  If it turns into a monkey stomp, great, but let's not kid ourselves.  Weird stuff happens behind that pine curtain.

[art76]

Hazz,
The starting kicker got hurt?  I guess I missed that.

While I'd like the think that BU will cruise over SJ1 and the results against recent common opponents seem to suggest that...I think we've all seen enough to know better than that.  If it turns into a monkey stomp, great, but let's not kid ourselves.  Weird stuff happens behind that pine curtain.

The punter, not the kicker.

[DoubleO]

Nice, hard fought win against a gritty opponent in Concordia yesterday for Glenn and the boys. Is there ANY way the Toms make it into the post season?

[art76]

Comments on the last week of conference play

There will be a number of play-off considerations to take into account that won't be determined until after the dust settles after the final games of the season. With that, let's take a look at the final 5 games for the coming Saturday.

The only game that does not either directly or indirectly have the potential of affecting the post season is the Augsburg vs. Carleton game. It is being played at Carleton but that won't be enough for the Knights to win. Not much else to say.

St. Thomas goes down to Northfield as well to take on St. Olaf and they should win that contest easily. Hopefully it's enough to get some love from the final Regional Ranking Committee to be considered as the second team from the MIAC to get into post-season play in Pool C. (And they may get that love in this week's rankings, but we don't know that yet. I'd guess that they do, but that's another story line.)

Bethel travels up to Collegeville to take on St. John's. They should win this game as well, and if the Royals should lose I would think it would knock any other MIAC team out of the possibility of post-season play. You can say all you want about MIAC parity, but at this point in the season it would only show how vulnerable/volatile the conference is as a whole. Many Johnnie fans won't see it that way, I am sure. Whereas a solid win by Bethel confirms the rankings/standings in all the charts kept on all the MIAC teams.

Hamline travels over to Macalester in a non-conference game that has play-off implications. How is that? Because it affects the SOS scores in a positive way for everyone in the conference, if the Pipers win, that has already defeated them throughout the year. This may be all the difference in Bethel being the #1 or #2 seed in the West in the final week of SOS Rankings. (More on this point in another post.)

And for the second week in a row, Concordia finds itself in the game of the week, as they host Gustavus. The Gusties are coming off of two wins and would like nothing better than to knock the Cobbers out of the play-off discussion. Will they have the wherewithal to pull it off? I'd guess not, but the Cobbers have got to be a bit demoralized after losing to the Tommies this week. They know they are behind the Tommies in the selection committees eyes, and the chance of the Oles beating the Tommies is pretty slim. This should be a pretty good game against two fairly equal opponents that the Cobbers should win.

[art76]

Nice, hard fought win against a gritty opponent in Concordia yesterday for Glenn and the boys. Is there ANY way the Toms make it into the post season?

Short answer is yes, but will they? Well, there's a whole lot that will be considered. I'm sure others will chime in on this but beating Concordia was a step in the right direction. Barring anything unexpected to happen in the final week of MIAC play, Bethel will be 10 and 0 and the Tommies will end up in second place in the conference at 8 and 2. The whole world already knows that they lost one of their games to their arch rivals because they couldn't punch a field goal through at the end of that game. Having gotten to the final game last year gets them a lot of consideration. Had they lost the game to Concordia, Concordia would have had more than "equal footing" in the eyes of the committee I suspect and would have been a shoe-in. What does hurt St. Thomas is their 2 losses as they are put on the board against other 1 loss teams. At this point, I wouldn't think that they are a lock to get into the final dance. Do they have a shot? Yeah.

[art76]

Strength of Schedule

As I alluded to in my earlier post, there are some interesting things to note in this year's SOS standings that I think (hope) have some bearing on the final seedings when the final selection committee posts the 32 teams that are in the final dance. Until yesterday's games were played Bethel has had the highest SOS of undefeated teams for the past four weeks, being just one spot ahead of UW Whitewater this past week. Then the Royals played the team in their conference that had the worst record. Whereas the UW Whitewater played a team from their conference that had a better record. This put UWW up on BU by 10 spots in this week's standings. I think that this will more than correct itself because of these mitigating circumstances.

First, UWW is playing the team in its conference with the worst record, and it is an even poorer record than the MIAC worst team record, 8 and 1 versus 9 and 0. This alone should be enough right the ship as they say, but in case it doesn't there are other things to consider. Specifically, how the rest of the conference did against other non-conference D3 teams, as this affects their respective opponents-opponents records. The second thing that more directly affects them is their individual wins against non-conference teams and what those teams' records end up being.

Specifically, the MIAC is currently 14 and 1 against non-conference D3 football teams (having played two NAIA teams). I am not sure what the WIAC non-conference record is, but I know it is not that good. Secondly, Bethel played Wartburg (currently 7 and 2) and Buena Vista (currently 3 and 6) versus UWW who has played Washington U (currently 7 and 2) and Buffalo State (currently 5 and 5). I suspect when it is all done and said - more like when the computers get done crunching the numbers - that Bethel is actually going to gain a few spots from the week 9 SOS report. This week's report is just a reflection on BU playing the bottom most team in their conference and will be the number one undefeated team in the nation after week 11's SOS report is released.

[hazzben]

Hazz,
The starting kicker got hurt?  I guess I missed that.

While I'd like the think that BU will cruise over SJ1 and the results against recent common opponents seem to suggest that...I think we've all seen enough to know better than that.  If it turns into a monkey stomp, great, but let's not kid ourselves.  Weird stuff happens behind that pine curtain.

The punter, not the kicker.

No, the punter got hurt Saturday. Not sure how serious. The starting kicker got hurt week 1 against Wartburg. O'Reilly is our backup, but at this point he's got basically an entire season under his belt.

[hazzben]

Bethel travels up to Collegeville to take on St. John's. They should win this game as well, and if the Royals should lose I would think it would knock any other MIAC team out of the possibility of post-season play.You can say all you want about MIAC parity, but at this point in the season it would only show how vulnerable/volatile the conference is as a whole. Many Johnnie fans won't see it that way, I am sure. Whereas a solid win by Bethel confirms the rankings/standings in all the charts kept on all the MIAC teams.

Hamline travels over to Macalester in a non-conference game that has play-off implications. How is that? Because it affects the SOS scores in a positive way for everyone in the conference, if the Pipers win, that has already defeated them throughout the year. This may be all the difference in Bethel being the #1 or #2 seed in the West in the final week of SOS Rankings. (More on this point in another post.)

And for the second week in a row, Concordia finds itself in the game of the week, as they host Gustavus. The Gusties are coming off of two wins and would like nothing better than to knock the Cobbers out of the play-off discussion. Will they have the wherewithal to pull it off? I'd guess not, but the Cobbers have got to be a bit demoralized after losing to the Tommies this week. They know they are behind the Tommies in the selection committees eyes, and the chance of the Oles beating the Tommies is pretty slim. This should be a pretty good game against two fairly equal opponents that the Cobbers should win.

1. If SJU beats Bethel, they have a shot. They'd have two quality wins, potentially both against RRO's. Some real firepower going up against other one loss teams. And they'd finish the season with a statement win. Definitely not a lock, but not dead in the water either. Maybe in better shape than UST if Bethel wins out. Any 2 loss MIAC team will need help in the final week. If a bunch of one loss teams fall, which has happened in the past, then all bets are off.

2. Great point on Hamline, hadn't thought about that. Go Pipers. I like their chances with how they're playing. They are an unsung story this year. They are heading in the right direction right now.

3. I agree that GAC has a real shot. I wouldn't favor them either, but they have to be playing with a lot of confidence right now. They have a strong D, the better running back and a good QB. I'd expect a great game between the two. Leaning Cobbers, but GAC wins this and they've made a loud statement that they are coming of age under Haugen.