FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[AO]

MIAC PICK-EMS
WEEK 5 STANDINGS


WEEK 6 Oct. 10

Conference: 3pts
Hamline (+28.5) @ Bethel
St. Olaf (+38.5) @ Gustavus
#23 Concordia @ Carleton (35.5)
#9 St. Thomas @ Augsburg (+21.5)

West Region: 1pt
#1 UW-Whitewater @ #15 UW-Oshkosh (+10.5)

National: 1pt
Berry (+10.5) @ #24 Chicago

[OldAuggie]

6 of the 9 teams in the MIAC have completed half of their seasons already in 2015, and all teams have their non-conference games in the books. There's still a lot of "what ifs" that can still happen, but we are beginning to get a pretty good feel for how things are going to shake out. In some form or other, the four "top teams" have all played one another or played someone they've played. That sorts out this way: St. Thomas beat St. John's who beat Concordia who beat Bethel. If any of those teams but the Tommies wins out, that team could still be the MIAC champion. Gustavus is the wild card, in the sense of, can they beat any of those teams.? We won't find out until they meet the Johnnies 2 games from now. They did take care of Augsburg already, to their credit. All that to say, "It ain't over 'til it's over".

On to this week's games. The Johnnies are idle this week.

Will the Oles score any more points this season? Probably, but not likely this week as they travel to Gustavus this week. This is the last "easy game" for the Gusties until they meet up with the "top four" teams which they meet in succession at the end of their season. It'll take a few more weeks for us all to see whether or not the Gusties are for real or a paper tiger.

Concordia heads down to Carleton this week. Coming off a tough and impressive win against Bethel, there may be a bit of a let down, but the Cobbers should hand the Knights another loss.

Bethel has their homecoming game this week against Hamline. Looking at games played so far this season of opponents' opponents, one could say that this will be a pretty close game.  That is my opinion as well. As a Royal fan, I am hoping that Bethel can make the Pipers have to play catch up all game which plays into the strength of the Royal defense.  If Bethel ends up dominating this game, then that builds momentum moving forward. This might be the best game in the conference this weekend.

But the game I think most will be paying attention to is the game between St. Thomas and Augsburg, because the Tommies have been pretty dominant so far this year. The Auggies are at home, which would normally play into their favor, but with the two schools being so close in proximity, there will be a lot of Tommie followers in the stands.  This game has the distinct possibility of testing the Tommie secondary in a way it hasn't all year because of Ayrton Scott.  While I think the Auggies can make the game competitive, I don't think they have what it takes to beat St. Thomas.

UST Augsburg will be interesting indeed.  Scott can scramble and keep plays alive so UST's secondary will have to cover for longer duration plays.  That said, UST's D line and blitzing LB's have been dominant and a nightmare for opposing lines and QB's.  Best defense is to never let Scott set his feet and keep him contained in the pocket.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Auggie run some designed QB draws to try to take advantage of some open space up the middle.  Will be a fun chess match to watch as the game goes on.

UST's passing game needs to continue to develop.  They've got the running game down and frankly it's built for playing deep into November and December.  But at some point they're going to have to throw the ball with more consistency.  I think the WRs need to do a better job of getting separation.  Gould is at his best when he rolls from the pocket and can see the field better, but often times that reduces the field in half.  Just some things to watch over the coming weeks.

With two weeks to rest, fresh legs and Homecoming I think we will see serious effort and a couple of jaw dropping plays from Ayrton Scott on Saturday.  I think Sonnenfeld will do very well and the running game will open up with Martin. Wartburg had a hard time stopping this offense back in week one. With two weeks to prepare for this game I expect the defense to step up and I think it will be similar to the Wartburg game. Hang on to the ball and the Auggies can keep it close.

[USTBench]

New Vince Flynn book is out - The Survivor! Sad he's not around for the release, glad I still get to read along as Mitch Rapp kicks some tail.

Vince is hands down my favorite Tommie (sorry Bench) 

Vince is also my father's favorite Tommie.

[OzJohnnie]

ChicagoTommie is leading the pick'ems?  I'm doing this all wrong and have to change my approach to he weekly selection. Someone pass the bottle.

[USTBench]

My big fear if UST makes the playoffs is what happened to Dakota Tracy in the 2011 semifinals against UWW. Gould is pretty much a carbon copy of Tracy. Light on his feet, but only 5'9" so you pretty much have to roll him out to give him some open looks. Especially when you consider that his left tackle is a full foot taller than him. Shorter QBs have proved they can play, but I haven't seen too many explosive plays from UST's WRs against top competition in the last few years, and when you start talking about Linfield, UWW, MUC and the like, you need to get separation from your WRs. it's one thing to get some misdirection and find a TE wide open, but the deeper you get in the playoffs, the less time you're going to have to let those plays develop. You need timing routes where WRs are explosive enough to get some separation and a QB that can get the ball out his hands quickly, and UST wasn't able to do that against SJU.  Every team has a game where it's a struggle to get the ground game going, and even though Roberts and Kaiser are big and talented, UST is going to have to win a game through the air at some point.

Very true.  I believe that BU took things about as far as they possibly could have with a one dimensional game in the Wetzell / Aakre - Flannery era.  It's a bit of a catch 22, as becoming extremely proficient at it by running so often during the year can be a boon once it's November and cold / wet weather makes passing more difficult, but eventually you'll run into a team that will make you pay for not being able to pass effectively.

Does Fritz have any November / December availability for a playoff run?

There's only really been a handful of big time WRs at UST in the last 15 years. Andrew Hilliard, PJ Theisen and Fritz Waldvogel. I played back in the era where Nick Ambrasas probably took every single snap from under center and our passing game completely stemmed from the fact that we had a perpetual homerun threat in Jake Barkley. Long story short, I remember a game against UW-Stout where Barkley was battling a bad groin injury and I think he didn't make it through the game. We pretty much tried everything to get Hilliard the ball but UW-Stout had a guy by the name of Tyrone Rhone that almost completely shut Hilliard, an All-American track guy who had phenomenal hands, down. I think Hilliard had something like 4 catches for 19 yards. He just couldn't shake Rhone. That was kind of my first look at what a top flight defense can do to a team even though we weren't completely one dimensional. I think the advantage offenses have now, however, is that they see the value of running a few plays out of several different looks as opposed to running a thousand plays out of two looks (which is what we kind of did in the early 2000s). It boggles my mind how many more skill position players see the field these days as opposed to when I played. I think Mike Leach said "I'd rather teach a kid 17 different places to stand than 500 different plays." Makes sense.

[sjusection105]

Well, I picked up my Halloween costume today.

I figure being the "Lion Hunter Dentist" should work for this year anyway.

(click to embiggen)

Nice, +K
When I was a kid I had a buddy who had a St. Bernard and every summer they would shave him like a lion.
Do you have a St. Bernard BDB? 

[sjusection105]

It boggles my mind how many more skill position players see the field these days as opposed to when I played. I think Mike Leach said "I'd rather teach a kid 17 different places to stand than 500 different plays." Makes sense.

Mike Leach is an offensive football savant,some of the stuff he ran at Texas Tech was very innovative. The anger management issue got the best of him. Now at Washington State he is never afraid to make bold statements such as saying WSU has the best facilities in the conference....better than Oregon. He does this to jerk the chain of rabid Duck fans. Is it working Bennie?

[DuffMan]

I may be in the minority here, but I don't think the Auggies are going to keep within 24 points of U$T.  I think the Tommie defense has the skill and speed to disrupt Scott's game.

[OldAuggie]

[USTBench]

I may be in the minority here, but I don't think the Auggies are going to keep within 24 points of U$T.  I think the Tommie defense has the skill and speed to disrupt Scott's game.

I know UST has a significantly improved defens,e but I was floored by Scott's ability to extend plays and find Sonnenfeld last year. Granted, it was 38 to 7 at halftime and a lot of Scott's magic came against the 2nd team, but impressive nonetheless.

[DuffMan]

I know UST has a significantly improved defens,e but I was floored by Scott's ability to extend plays and find Sonnenfeld last year. Granted, it was 38 to 7 at halftime and a lot of Scott's magic came against the 2nd team, but impressive nonetheless.

The Saint John's defense had him on his heels the entire game in 2014, and his performance reflected that.

[sjusection105]

+K, but you'll have to ramp it up a little....it's Tommie week at Auggie 

[ChicagoTommie]

I predict Augsburg will have 3 turnovers against the Tommies! UST will win but won't cover the spread of 21 points they will win by 14...we should add an over and under to the mix?

[DuffMan]

I wonder if plans are in place for post-game U$T team photos at Edor Nelson???

[sjusection105]

I wonder if plans are in place for post-game U$T team photos at Edor Nelson???

Of course, it's customary after a win on the opposition mid field logo. 

If the Auggies win, load up their bus & take the photo over at U$T(d)