FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[USTBench]

And the Johnnies and the Tommies will roll again against their opponents, the Beavers and the Blue Devils, respectively.

UW-Stout (+35.5) @ #4 St. Thomas

Surprising to me the predictions being made on the UW-Stout vs. UST game Saturday. A 5 touchdown spread? Maybe that's how it will turn out, we'll see.

But it's not like my squad will be rolling down Summit Ave. with a Pop Warner team not used to playing tough competition.

I guess the spread is more saying that there's a difference between playing tough competition and playing tough competition well.  Also, hoping the fellas redeem our embarrassing efforts from 2002 and 2003. Oof.

[bleedpurple]

And the Johnnies and the Tommies will roll again against their opponents, the Beavers and the Blue Devils, respectively.

UW-Stout (+35.5) @ #4 St. Thomas

Surprising to me the predictions being made on the UW-Stout vs. UST game Saturday. A 5 touchdown spread? Maybe that's how it will turn out, we'll see.

But it's not like my squad will be rolling down Summit Ave. with a Pop Warner team not used to playing tough competition.

The Tommies' AVERAGE margin of victory last year was over 38 points a game. So, I guess an argument could be made that at +35.5, UW-Stout is considered above average.

[jamtod]

And the Johnnies and the Tommies will roll again against their opponents, the Beavers and the Blue Devils, respectively.

UW-Stout (+35.5) @ #4 St. Thomas

Surprising to me the predictions being made on the UW-Stout vs. UST game Saturday. A 5 touchdown spread? Maybe that's how it will turn out, we'll see.

But it's not like my squad will be rolling down Summit Ave. with a Pop Warner team not used to playing tough competition.

The Tommies' AVERAGE margin of victory last year was over 38 points a game. So, I guess an argument could be made that at +35.5, UW-Stout is considered above average.

Extrapolating the data from last year is very imperfect, but if I take this a step further (with the assumption that teams are similar to last year's performance):
* St Thomas beat La Crosse by 44 pts last year.
* La Crosse beat Stout by 7 pts (at home) last year.
* If we assume that La Crosse and Stout were even quality, it's not unreasonable to assume that the St Thomas vs. Stout result will be similar.

I know I'm stretching a bit here, but with small sample sizes, we can at least conclude that 35 is not totally unreasonable.

[AO]

And the Johnnies and the Tommies will roll again against their opponents, the Beavers and the Blue Devils, respectively.

UW-Stout (+35.5) @ #4 St. Thomas

Surprising to me the predictions being made on the UW-Stout vs. UST game Saturday. A 5 touchdown spread? Maybe that's how it will turn out, we'll see.

But it's not like my squad will be rolling down Summit Ave. with a Pop Warner team not used to playing tough competition.

I guess the spread is more saying that there's a difference between playing tough competition and playing tough competition well.  Also, hoping the fellas redeem our embarrassing efforts from 2002 and 2003. Oof.

I think Stout has a decent chance to keep it within 14.  They could also lose by 50.  I'm just trying to guess a number that will split the MIAC pickers.  So far 4 out of 6 people have taken the Tommies even at 35.5. We had two spreads off by 40+ points last week, maybe Stout will make another spread look silly.

[HansenRatings]

And the Johnnies and the Tommies will roll again against their opponents, the Beavers and the Blue Devils, respectively.

UW-Stout (+35.5) @ #4 St. Thomas

Surprising to me the predictions being made on the UW-Stout vs. UST game Saturday. A 5 touchdown spread? Maybe that's how it will turn out, we'll see.

But it's not like my squad will be rolling down Summit Ave. with a Pop Warner team not used to playing tough competition.

I guess the spread is more saying that there's a difference between playing tough competition and playing tough competition well.  Also, hoping the fellas redeem our embarrassing efforts from 2002 and 2003. Oof.

I think Stout has a decent chance to keep it within 14.  They could also lose by 50.  I'm just trying to guess a number that will split the MIAC pickers.  So far 4 out of 6 people have taken the Tommies even at 35.5. We had two spreads off by 40+ points last week, maybe Stout will make another spread look silly.

My model has St. Thomas favored by 38. On average last week, my spreads were off by about 11.9 points, which is slightly better than typical for Week 1, but only '13-'16 have returning starter adjustments (it's also more than one point on average better than any other computer ratings I can find on the internet  ). My Week 2 spreads are typically off by around 12.5 since '99.

All of this is to say that 35.5 is probably spot-on given what we know so far, and my model suggests Stout probably has about a 1-in-3 chance to cover, which are way better odds than Cleveland had to come back in the finals last year. But then again, in Stout's games against Top 10-caliber teams last season, they lost by 55, 33, & 49, so they're also very capable of getting blown out.

[sjusection105]

Yea, some gardening show was on.

Well, was it any good? 

Actually, not bad.....
Next spring I may put in Wave Petunias in place of my Geraniums 

[OzJohnnie]

I'm sure they will be lovely, 105.



Love the hat.

[faunch]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9c_KttvQPU

[OzJohnnie]

I'm on the train to the MCG to watch the Hawks take on Geelong in the opening round of the playoffs.  It will be a tough contest but with luck I can watch the Hawks roll to victory tonight and then the Johnnies do the same in two days.

Go Hawks!

[OzJohnnie]

90,000 fans and a red hot, hard game of football. It's tight. Can't say who will win at quarter time.

[OzJohnnie]

Fierce, hard, even dirty game and Hawthorn lead by 7 at the half, 42-35. Very hard to say who will win this one.

[OzJohnnie]

Three quarter time and Geelong lead by 2, 68-67. A bit of tussle as the players walk to the sidelines for the break. The fourth quarter will be a firecracker. Come on, Hawks!

[OzJohnnie]

NOOOOooooooo!!!!!


Kicking for the win after the siren Isaac Smith misses by a sliver and the Hawks go down 85-83. Due to their high finish they get a double chance and play the Western Bulldogs next weekend.

It was a hell of a game so it's hard for me to be too disappointed. And despite the loss the boys get to fight another day.

Now to switch gears: Go Johnnies!

[USTBench]

Bethel got 70 hung on them and SJU is going to beat up on something called Buena Vista, so we get 5 posts in a row about Aussie Rules Football. Can't wait for MIAC play to resume.

[OzJohnnie]