FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[jamtod]

I have sent the Eureka fan a pm inviting him to join the discussion,  now we play the waiting game.
   I saw what was probably Eureka's worst game of the year.  They made some terrible turnovers and gave up a couple long pass plays for TDs.  I would be surprised if they kept it close but they will at least keep the game moving by running the ball.  Their RB LeAnthony Reasnover has 1800 yards and 31 tds this season.

Any other players of note on their team?

[OzJohnnie]

Massey rates NCC a 78% chance to win and predicts a score of 34 - 23.  Not even close to what I expected.  I don't think the Johnnie defense will give up anything like 34 points, particularly as UST only scored 20.  And the fact that SJU scored 17 on UST makes me think it's unlikely that NCC can hold us to only 23.  I think they score is likely to be much different than what Massey predicts.

https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=832635676

[miac952]

I have sent the Eureka fan a pm inviting him to join the discussion,  now we play the waiting game.
   I saw what was probably Eureka's worst game of the year.  They made some terrible turnovers and gave up a couple long pass plays for TDs.  I would be surprised if they kept it close but they will at least keep the game moving by running the ball.  Their RB LeAnthony Reasnover has 1800 yards and 31 tds this season.

So they win the UMAC and decide they are bailing on the UMAC in the same year. What's up with that AO?

[miac952]

Massey rates NCC a 78% chance to win and predicts a score of 34 - 23.  Not even close to what I expected.  I don't think the Johnnie defense will give up anything like 34 points, particularly as UST only scored 20.  And the fact that SJU scored 17 on UST makes me think it's unlikely that NCC can hold us to only 23.  I think they score is likely to be much different than what Massey predicts.

https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=832635676

The MIAC takes their lumps in Massey this year due to a couple of bad non conference losses. UST to Stout and Bethels to Dubuque. UST at 25 and SJU at 33 is the lowest I have seen top MIAC teams end the season in Massey in some time. The UST defense being ranked so low is what really throws me on the calculations.

I think our resident statistician had a 2 point spread. Guessing Massey doesn't factor in recency as much, but that's just a guess. SJU D against North Central O will be a fun matchup.

[HansenRatings]

Massey rates NCC a 78% chance to win and predicts a score of 34 - 23.  Not even close to what I expected.  I don't think the Johnnie defense will give up anything like 34 points, particularly as UST only scored 20.  And the fact that SJU scored 17 on UST makes me think it's unlikely that NCC can hold us to only 23.  I think they score is likely to be much different than what Massey predicts.

https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=832635676

The MIAC takes their lumps in Massey this year due to a couple of bad non conference losses. UST to Stout and Bethels to Dubuque. UST at 25 and SJU at 33 is the lowest I have seen top MIAC teams end the season in Massey in some time. The UST defense being ranked so low is what really throws me on the calculations.

I think our resident statistician had a 2 point spread. Guessing Massey doesn't factor in recency as much, but that's just a guess. SJU D against North Central O will be a fun matchup.

I'm guessing I'm the resident statistician?

SJU would be favored by 1 on a neutral field, which means NCC is favored by 2 at home. That's just with my score-based system. I'll be updating the more intense "Y1P+" (yards/play, 1st downs/opportunity, & points/drive) ratings tomorrow. Those take longer because I have to wait for the NCAA to upload all of the weekly stats to their page and debug any discrepancies. My "official" prediction will be the average of the two.

As far as why Massey has UST/SJU so low, it's not because my model has more weight on recent games, it's actually the opposite. By the end of the season, pretty much every other computer rating system has completely factored out preseason projections, so the MIAC's standing relative to the rest of the country is based strictly on their 2 weeks of non-conference games from this season. My model never removes preseason projections from the equation. Every game since 1998 is factored into a team's current rating. With so few out of conference games in DIII, it provides a more accurate representation of each league's relative national standing.

[wm4]

I see something like 27-23, NCC.  NCC gets up early, but Johnnies keep it close.

Get in Rutter's passing lanes, make him double clutch. 

[bluenote]

SJU got a tough draw... just like Linfield did vs. HSU..... I have no Idea how they come up with these brackets... Delaware Valley Bracket is a joke! .... BTW.... North Central came to Linfield a few years ago... they have some talent at skill positions and a LOT of BEEF on the lines.... I think this game is gunna be a great one.... I predict Johnnies by 10.

[miac952]

Massey rates NCC a 78% chance to win and predicts a score of 34 - 23.  Not even close to what I expected.  I don't think the Johnnie defense will give up anything like 34 points, particularly as UST only scored 20.  And the fact that SJU scored 17 on UST makes me think it's unlikely that NCC can hold us to only 23.  I think they score is likely to be much different than what Massey predicts.

https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=832635676

The MIAC takes their lumps in Massey this year due to a couple of bad non conference losses. UST to Stout and Bethels to Dubuque. UST at 25 and SJU at 33 is the lowest I have seen top MIAC teams end the season in Massey in some time. The UST defense being ranked so low is what really throws me on the calculations.

I think our resident statistician had a 2 point spread. Guessing Massey doesn't factor in recency as much, but that's just a guess. SJU D against North Central O will be a fun matchup.

I'm guessing I'm the resident statistician?

SJU would be favored by 1 on a neutral field, which means NCC is favored by 2 at home. That's just with my score-based system. I'll be updating the more intense "Y1P+" (yards/play, 1st downs/opportunity, & points/drive) ratings tomorrow. Those take longer because I have to wait for the NCAA to upload all of the weekly stats to their page and debug any discrepancies. My "official" prediction will be the average of the two.

As far as why Massey has UST/SJU so low, it's not because my model has more weight on recent games, it's actually the opposite. By the end of the season, pretty much every other computer rating system has completely factored out preseason projections, so the MIAC's standing relative to the rest of the country is based strictly on their 2 weeks of non-conference games from this season. My model never removes preseason projections from the equation. Every game since 1998 is factored into a team's current rating. With so few out of conference games in DIII, it provides a more accurate representation of each league's relative national standing.

+k. Knew you would come to the rescue when the bat signal was put out

[AO]

I have sent the Eureka fan a pm inviting him to join the discussion,  now we play the waiting game.
   I saw what was probably Eureka's worst game of the year.  They made some terrible turnovers and gave up a couple long pass plays for TDs.  I would be surprised if they kept it close but they will at least keep the game moving by running the ball.  Their RB LeAnthony Reasnover has 1800 yards and 31 tds this season.

So they win the UMAC and decide they are bailing on the UMAC in the same year. What's up with that AO?

Travel to Minnesota probably got to be a bit much for them, especially up to Duluth.  Sad to see them go, the UMAC was definitely a great fit for them competitively.  Spinning it positively, I will enjoy having another non-conference game.

[D O.C.]

I'm surprised PC did not come on here and mention no schools can charge for viewing playoffs.

[bluenote]

I'm surprised PC did not come on here and mention no schools can charge for viewing playoffs.

... hey hey now.... I think Linfield still has a polaroid camera system. And worth every penny of $12!

[ron doney]

UST may have a down year and go 8-2 along the way, but it won't be sustained, even without Caruso.

What if Don Roney comes back to town?  U$T was relatively irrelevant prior to St. Glenn, why not again?

What if? What if Ron never left?

[ron doney]

Anything can happen, I suppose, but I like the MIAC. I would dislike seeing football bigger than it is at SJU.  I fear it would change the fabric of the school if sport became even more of a business.

Agreed. I wouldn't want to do anything to jeopardize the fabric ..... the extra soft, plush fabric that UST uses to wipe their ass with each year.

[jamtod]

Going to steal a bit from the WIAC board.

Best MIAC game? Personal bias, but the Tommie-Johnnie game is hard to beat. There were a few other close games, but I didn't see them live (watched part of Carleton vs St Olaf on Stretch after the fact)

Biggest season surprise (positive)? Augsburg QB Quinn Frisell. I'm not a great defensive mind, so I'm not sure who the defensive guy would be. I reviewed kickoff last night and I don't think they foresaw the year UST LB Dylan Andrew would have or how much of a lockdown CB Mark Dowdle would be, but that's a Tommie homer perspective.

Biggest one-game surprise? The MIAC rankings pretty much stacked up about as you might expect, maybe in hindsight.

Looking good for 2018?  Despite last week, I think St Olaf will be making some steps. And I hope Veldman can stay healthy for Gustavus and help them have a stronger year.

Biggest one-game disappointment? St Thomas vs Stout is a non-conference tilt, so I guess it doesn't count.

Biggest season disappointment? Bethel with the early season woes or Gustavus with the Veldman injury. I think many expected Hamline to win a few more games.

[New Tradition]

North Central is a tough team to put a finger on. Take out that odd Monday night weather delay continuation and they have had one heck of a season. It's the game of the week in round one and a lot of people will be tuning in. I hope they have some good bandwidth for their webcast.

We should have plenty of bandwidth for all who can't make the journey to enjoy the game.  Tune in at NCTV17.com !  Pat usually has a link on the home page, too.