FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[roocru]

SJU/UMHB Game Notes are up.

Again ignoring second half distortions, MHB face more ground oriented offenses while SJU faces more air attack.  I imagine teams try the air against MHB because they can't move on the ground while teams try the air against SJU because they must keep up with the high and early scoring offense.

Ranking of Passing Attacks by Yardage Gained  -  by NCAA     

*Conference   +Non Conference    #Playoffs

*Gustavus Adolphus  39                                           *East Texas Baptist     15
*Carleton                  75                                          *Louisiana College       41
*St. Thomas             137                                         *Hardin Simmons         50
*Augsburg                145                                         *McMurry                    57
*St. Olaf                   145                                         *Texas Lutheran          112
*Bethel                    177                                          *Southwestern            113
*Hamline                  200                                         *Howard Payne            133
*Concordia Moorhead 240                                         *Sul Ross                    180
+UW-Stout                80                                           *Belhaven                   207
+Thomas More          123                                          +Albright                    80
#Martin Luther          166                                          #Hardin Simmons        50
#Whitworth               23                                           #Berry                        150 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average                    121.1                                                                        99


We also have a more high scoring offense than St. Johns.  I think your bolded statement is in error. 

[crufootball]

SJU/UMHB Game Notes are up.

Ok, I pored over the game notes on the morning train (Sheena E lives in my head again.  I'm amazed at how frustratingly much I remember of that stupid song.) and I have some observations from 30,000 feet.  Essentially this: SJU present a new challenge to the Crusaders and that could be the difference.  Some stats and analysis.

          Total O / passing / ground / % pass / % ground

MHB: 477 / 214 / 264 / 45% / 55%
SJU: 494 / 290 / 204 / 59% / 41%

Despite the fact that the foot comes off the gas in the second half for both teams and they revert to run, run, run, I say that statistical view still reflects the general offensive disposition of the teams.  MHB is a run-heavy king of smash.  AirJohnnie^tm.

       Total D / passing / ground / pass % / ground %
MHB: 189 / 112 / 77 / 60% / 40%
SJU: 277 / 184 / 93 / 66% / 34%

Again ignoring second half distortions, MHB face more ground oriented offenses while SJU faces more air attack.  I imagine teams try the air against MHB because they can't move on the ground while teams try the air against SJU because they must keep up with the high and early scoring offense.

So those general observations aside, I looked for differences in the other stats that could give insight to the teams' play and two stood out.  The first was the sacks as a percentage of total tackles for loss.

      TFL / sacks / % of TFL which are sacks
MHB: 111 / 27 / 25%
SJU: 94 / 43 / 49%

That's quite a large difference.  It indicates to me that MHB has a rock solid line and it's very hard to run by those guys, but perhaps they don't have that explosive a pass rush.  SJU, on the other hand, is tackling the passing quarterback half the time they tackle in the backfield.  I suspect this is less because MHB are average pass rushers and more because they face the run far more than the pass, while the Johnnies face the pass more often.  It's a matter of opportunity.

     Takeaways / by int / by fumble / int:fumble ratio
MHB: 38 / 26 / 12 / 2.2:1
SJU: 35 / 18 / 17 / 1:1

Yet again an indicator that MHB is facing an unusual challenge in SJU.  I don't think that MHB have faced a particularly sophisticated pass attack.  Most definitely that have fabulous athletes and a hard defense, but it's strange to me that so many take aways are interceptions when they face the run far more often and their sack to TFL ratio is so low.  I think they are facing some sub-par passing teams.

The question is how will they go against an A-grade pass attack?  The average pass efficiency offense in the ASC is 126.2, well below SJU's pass efficiency of 194.15.  In fact the best pass attack that UHMB has face is... guess it... HSU who put out a pass attack of 162.25.

What am I concluding?  I'm concluding that both teams are facing the best they have yet faced.  But SJU is facing a game plan they have seen before, just done extremely well with great athletes.  MHB is facing something brand new and different from anything they have prepped against.  Does that mean they'll fail miserably and get stomped?  Of course not.  Does it mean that there is a real chance that SJU can beat these guys?  Absolutely.

I won't pretend to come here and say that SJU can't beat UMHB, they are a very solid team that has put up some impressive numbers. However one thing you didn't mention when comparing the offensive stats for teams UMHB has faced and SJU is the numbers they would have without facing UMHB.

You are correct that HSU has the best team pass efficiency numbers at 162.25 which does rank them 15th in the country. However in those numbers are 2 games against the best team pass efficency defense in the nation (aka UMHB). When you take us out of the equation their number goes to 184.37 which would have been #3 in the country right behind you guys.

Another team, ETBU who has a rating of 154.04 and would have a rating of 160.22 if they hadn't played UMHB.

Also it almost impossible to not acknowledge this isn't a one year thing for UMHB as our defense has been very good for a few years now. Last year Mount Union for the season averaged 256 yards of passing offense against everyone but UMHB and only had 3 interceptions going into the national championship game. They did enough to win but only mustered 137 yards of passing and was picked off 2 times.

All this doesn't really matter, St. Johns could come into Belton and produce any number of results but it is a little misleading to say we haven't faced something like this before. 

[OzJohnnie]

I won't pretend to come here and say that SJU can't beat UMHB, they are a very solid team that has put up some impressive numbers. However one thing you didn't mention when comparing the offensive stats for teams UMHB has faced and SJU is the numbers they would have without facing UMHB.

You are correct that HSU has the best team pass efficiency numbers at 162.25 which does rank them 15th in the country. However in those numbers are 2 games against the best team pass efficency defense in the nation (aka UMHB). When you take us out of the equation their number goes to 184.37 which would have been #3 in the country right behind you guys.

Another team, ETBU who has a rating of 154.04 and would have a rating of 160.22 if they hadn't played UMHB.

Also it almost impossible to not acknowledge this isn't a one year thing for UMHB as our defense has been very good for a few years now. Last year Mount Union for the season averaged 256 yards of passing offense against everyone but UMHB and only had 3 interceptions going into the national championship game. They did enough to win but only mustered 137 yards of passing and was picked off 2 times.

All this doesn't really matter, St. Johns could come into Belton and produce any number of results but it is a little misleading to say we haven't faced something like this before.

It's a wash.  Or else I drop BU and UST from SJU's numbers and now their pass efficiency goes to 225.  At some point you just have to accept the general stats.  If you start messing with them then the argument is over composition and not interpretation.

If your claim is that you faced HSU this year and that's your Johnnie equivalent, then fine.  I accept that's your argument and I hope you sleep well with those visions of sugar plumbs in your head.

Alternatively, if your argument is that you faced a similar situation last year, played hard and lost then I also accept that argument.

[OzJohnnie]

SJU/UMHB Game Notes are up.

Again ignoring second half distortions, MHB face more ground oriented offenses while SJU faces more air attack.  I imagine teams try the air against MHB because they can't move on the ground while teams try the air against SJU because they must keep up with the high and early scoring offense.

Ranking of Passing Attacks by Yardage Gained  -  by NCAA     

*Conference   +Non Conference    #Playoffs

*Gustavus Adolphus  39                                           *East Texas Baptist     15
*Carleton                  75                                          *Louisiana College       41
*St. Thomas             137                                         *Hardin Simmons         50
*Augsburg                145                                         *McMurry                    57
*St. Olaf                   145                                         *Texas Lutheran          112
*Bethel                    177                                          *Southwestern            113
*Hamline                  200                                         *Howard Payne            133
*Concordia Moorhead 240                                         *Sul Ross                    180
+UW-Stout                80                                           *Belhaven                   207
+Thomas More          123                                          +Albright                    80
#Martin Luther          166                                          #Hardin Simmons        50
#Whitworth               23                                           #Berry                        150 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average                    121.1                                                                        99


We also have a more high scoring offense than St. Johns.  I think your bolded statement is in error. 

Well, I quoted directly from the game notes.  SJU gave up 184 yards a game to the pass while UHMB conceded only 112.  If your argument is that the game notes are wrong and UHMB is actually much worse against the pass then I guess I can live with that.

[OzJohnnie]

SJU/UMHB Game Notes are up.

Again ignoring second half distortions, MHB face more ground oriented offenses while SJU faces more air attack.  I imagine teams try the air against MHB because they can't move on the ground while teams try the air against SJU because they must keep up with the high and early scoring offense.

Ranking of Passing Attacks by Yardage Gained  -  by NCAA     

*Conference   +Non Conference    #Playoffs

*Gustavus Adolphus  39                                           *East Texas Baptist     15
*Carleton                  75                                          *Louisiana College       41
*St. Thomas             137                                         *Hardin Simmons         50
*Augsburg                145                                         *McMurry                    57
*St. Olaf                   145                                         *Texas Lutheran          112
*Bethel                    177                                          *Southwestern            113
*Hamline                  200                                         *Howard Payne            133
*Concordia Moorhead 240                                         *Sul Ross                    180
+UW-Stout                80                                           *Belhaven                   207
+Thomas More          123                                          +Albright                    80
#Martin Luther          166                                          #Hardin Simmons        50
#Whitworth               23                                           #Berry                        150 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average                    121.1                                                                        99


We also have a more high scoring offense than St. Johns.  I think your bolded statement is in error. 

Alternatively, you may be arguing that the ASC offenses are much more balanced that the stats against the Crusaders implies.  So that mean the Cru stop the run much more than they stop the pass?  Ok, I'll accept that.  Or you're saying that teams never changed up schemes and play the same thing against each side.  I'm hip with that philosophy as well if that's how the Cru approach game prep.

[OzJohnnie]

I'm quoting my concluding paragraph from the previous analysis for all you Crusader fans.  I don't want your knickers to get in a knot unnecessarily.  We understand what's going on this weekend.  Fully aware.

We just aren't afraid.  Or convinced it's hopeless.  In fact, we reckon we have a reasonably good chance.  You may disagree.  You may think this is a slam dunk and UHMB can get the job done blindfolded with third-stringers.  No worries.  Think away.  I look forward to seeing your argument in support of that position.

What am I concluding?  I'm concluding that both teams are facing the best they have yet faced.  But SJU is facing a game plan they have seen before, just done extremely well with great athletes.  MHB is facing something brand new and different from anything they have prepped against.  Does that mean they'll fail miserably and get stomped?  Of course not.  Does it mean that there is a real chance that SJU can beat these guys?  Absolutely.

[crufootball]

I won't pretend to come here and say that SJU can't beat UMHB, they are a very solid team that has put up some impressive numbers. However one thing you didn't mention when comparing the offensive stats for teams UMHB has faced and SJU is the numbers they would have without facing UMHB.

You are correct that HSU has the best team pass efficiency numbers at 162.25 which does rank them 15th in the country. However in those numbers are 2 games against the best team pass efficency defense in the nation (aka UMHB). When you take us out of the equation their number goes to 184.37 which would have been #3 in the country right behind you guys.

Another team, ETBU who has a rating of 154.04 and would have a rating of 160.22 if they hadn't played UMHB.

Also it almost impossible to not acknowledge this isn't a one year thing for UMHB as our defense has been very good for a few years now. Last year Mount Union for the season averaged 256 yards of passing offense against everyone but UMHB and only had 3 interceptions going into the national championship game. They did enough to win but only mustered 137 yards of passing and was picked off 2 times.

All this doesn't really matter, St. Johns could come into Belton and produce any number of results but it is a little misleading to say we haven't faced something like this before.

It's a wash.  Or else I drop BU and UST from SJU's numbers and now their pass efficiency goes to 225.  At some point you just have to accept the general stats.  If you start messing with them then the argument is over composition and not interpretation.

If your claim is that you faced HSU this year and that's your Johnnie equivalent, then fine.  I accept that's your argument and I hope you sleep well with those visions of sugar plumbs in your head.

Alternatively, if your argument is that you faced a similar situation last year, played hard and lost then I also accept that argument.

You can drop whoever you want, I wasn't arguing that you guys haven't put up impressive number. And no where did I say that HSU was your equal, in fact I even said after running the numbers they would be behind you. You just tried to imply we haven't faced anything like you which is wrong.

[roocru]

SJU/UMHB Game Notes are up.

Again ignoring second half distortions, MHB face more ground oriented offenses while SJU faces more air attack.  I imagine teams try the air against MHB because they can't move on the ground while teams try the air against SJU because they must keep up with the high and early scoring offense.

Ranking of Passing Attacks by Yardage Gained  -  by NCAA     

*Conference   +Non Conference    #Playoffs

*Gustavus Adolphus  39                                           *East Texas Baptist     15
*Carleton                  75                                          *Louisiana College       41
*St. Thomas             137                                         *Hardin Simmons         50
*Augsburg                145                                         *McMurry                    57
*St. Olaf                   145                                         *Texas Lutheran          112
*Bethel                    177                                          *Southwestern            113
*Hamline                  200                                         *Howard Payne            133
*Concordia Moorhead 240                                         *Sul Ross                    180
+UW-Stout                80                                           *Belhaven                   207
+Thomas More          123                                          +Albright                    80
#Martin Luther          166                                          #Hardin Simmons        50
#Whitworth               23                                           #Berry                        150 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average                    121.1                                                                        99


We also have a more high scoring offense than St. Johns.  I think your bolded statement is in error. 

Alternatively, you may be arguing that the ASC offenses are much more balanced that the stats against the Crusaders implies.  So that mean the Cru stop the run much more than they stop the pass?  Ok, I'll accept that.  Or you're saying that teams never changed up schemes and play the same thing against each side.  I'm hip with that philosophy as well if that's how the Cru approach game prep.

I am saying neither of the things you said.  My argument is with the statement I quoted from your post which inferred;

1) because UMHB faced poorer passing oriented teams they gave up fewer yards passing.  I am saying we gave up fewer passing yards to better passing teams. 
2) Couldn't teams pass us against us as much as they did because we stopped the run and because they were trying to keep up with our early and high scoring offense as well?


Also, in answer to your post while I was typing this, no reasonable ASC poster would think St. John's doesn't have a chance  We have been in the playoffs and lost enough times to know that any given Saturday n the playoffs anyone can eat anyone else!

[OzJohnnie]

You can drop whoever you want, I wasn't arguing that you guys haven't put up impressive number. And no where did I say that HSU was your equal, in fact I even said after running the numbers they would be behind you. You just tried to imply we haven't faced anything like you which is wrong.

Sentence two and sentence three are incongruent.

[jamtod]

I'm surprised nobody has yet recalled that "you heard it first" from Frank Rossi of "in the huddlle" fame, that predicted Brockport had the toughest road to the Stagg on the pre-playoff podcast (too lazy to go figure out which one it was).

I made fun of Frank earlier this week or over the weekend.

I made a comment on the Facebook blitz about it as well

[OzJohnnie]

I am saying neither of the things you said.  My argument is with the statement I quoted from your post which inferred;

1) because UMHB faced poorer passing oriented teams they gave up fewer yards passing.  I am saying we gave up fewer passing yards to better passing teams. 
2) Couldn't teams pass us against us as much as they did because we stopped the run and because they were trying to keep up with our early and high scoring offense as well?


Also, in answer to your post while I was typing this, no reasonable ASC poster would think St. John's doesn't have a chance  We have been in the playoffs and lost enough times to know that any given Saturday n the playoffs anyone can eat anyone else!

Aha!  I understand.  The numbers against UHMB are what they are because the Crusaders so utterly dominate ASC competition.  And that competition is tougher than the MIAC - at least as far as passing goes.

So my observation that UHMB runs a run-heavy offense and faces run-heavier offenses than the Johnnies face was not correct. The stats imply that but it's not true.  The Cru distort the stats with their awesomeness.

I'm being a little facetious here in order to make a point.  I simply argued that the Johnnies run a pass offense unlike anything the Cru have encountered and I reckon that will give the Jays a shot.  And the response is not only am I wrong, but that the MIAC is built on a statistical house of cards.

Maybe that's the case.  Maybe the Cru so dominate that statistics in their favour are truth and stats that are not in their favour are distorted by their presence like a black-hole distorts time/space.  But I doubt it.

I reckon (short of a turnover disaster which happens from time to time in the post season much to us fans' chagrin) that the Jays will give the Crusaders a contest unlike anything they have seen this year.  The Jays defense is fast but usual.  The offense is creative and different, even for a Johnnie O.  And things like the type of yards against each team, sack ratio and interception/fumble ratio make me think that the Cru have not been facing offenses like the Johnnies' O.

[roocru]

I am saying neither of the things you said.  My argument is with the statement I quoted from your post which inferred;

1) because UMHB faced poorer passing oriented teams they gave up fewer yards passing.  I am saying we gave up fewer passing yards to better passing teams. 
2) Couldn't teams pass us against us as much as they did because we stopped the run and because they were trying to keep up with our early and high scoring offense as well?


Also, in answer to your post while I was typing this, no reasonable ASC poster would think St. John's doesn't have a chance  We have been in the playoffs and lost enough times to know that any given Saturday n the playoffs anyone can eat anyone else!

Aha!  I understand.  The numbers against UHMB are what they are because the Crusaders so utterly dominate ASC competition.  And that competition is tougher than the MIAC - at least as far as passing goes.

So my observation that UHMB runs a run-heavy offense and faces run-heavier offenses than the Johnnies face was not correct. The stats imply that but it's not true.  The Cru distort the stats with their awesomeness.

I'm being a little facetious here in order to make a point.  I simply argued that the Johnnies run a pass offense unlike anything the Cru have encountered and I reckon that will give the Jays a shot.  And the response is not only am I wrong, but that the MIAC is built on a statistical house of cards.

Maybe that's the case.  Maybe the Cru so dominate that statistics in their favour are truth and stats that are not in their favour are distorted by their presence like a black-hole distorts time/space.  But I doubt it.

I reckon (short of a turnover disaster which happens from time to time in the post season much to us fans' chagrin) that the Jays will give the Crusaders a contest unlike anything they have seen this year.  The Jays defense is fast but usual.  The offense is creative and different, even for a Johnnie O.  And things like the type of yards against each team, sack ratio and interception/fumble ratio make me think that the Cru have not been facing offenses like the Johnnies' O.

Okay, there is no way I can match your fluent hyperbole.  The style of your posts is so different from the creampuffs on the ASC boards, that are much kindler and gentler, that I will not try to respond any further other than to say that all of the so-called Purple Powers get tired of statements like that bolded above.  We will part ways and may the best team win this Saturday!

[OzJohnnie]

And things like the type of yards against each team, sack ratio and interception/fumble ratio make me think that the Cru have not been facing offenses like the Johnnies' O.

Okay, there is no way I can match your fluent hyperbole.  The style of your posts is so different from the creampuffs on the ASC boards, that are much kindler and gentler, that I will not try to respond any further other than to say that all of the so-called Purple Powers get tired of statements like that bolded above.  We will part ways and may the best team win this Saturday!

Fluent hyperbole.  Now that made me chuckle.

I know you're tired of hearing it.  I know you hear it a lot.  And even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

[cover2]

Oz, I'm curious about one more thing in your analysis.  Did you see anything regarding special teams that stands out to you one way or another?

[OzJohnnie]

Oz, I'm curious about one more thing in your analysis.  Did you see anything regarding special teams that stands out to you one way or another?

Nice.  +k for paying the game. 

No, I didn't.