FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[OzJohnnie]

Bethel will move up to 6th in the Top 25 this week.  4 v 6 next weekend.  Will be an outrageous match.

Maybe not.  While NCC will presumably fall behind them, both Wheaton and Muhlenberg jumping them would not shock me (they both had VERY impressive wins).  Beating Carleton does not impress voters.  I think they'll either stay #7 or even fall to #8.  AND, of course, HSU has not yet played (though losing at home to TX Lu is almost inconceivable).

I'd make sure you're phone and address are unlisted, Ypsi, as it appears you put the hex on HSU.

[TheChucker]

Bethel will move up to 6th in the Top 25 this week.  4 v 6 next weekend.  Will be an outrageous match.

Maybe not.  While NCC will presumably fall behind them, both Wheaton and Muhlenberg jumping them would not shock me (they both had VERY impressive wins).  Beating Carleton does not impress voters.  I think they'll either stay #7 or even fall to #8.  AND, of course, HSU has not yet played (though losing at home to TX Lu is almost inconceivable).

I'd make sure you're phone and address are unlisted, Ypsi, as it appears you put the hex on HSU.

HSU about to go down in flames. Streaming it now. The HSU quarterback just threw maybe the worst pick 6 I've ever seen.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Bethel will move up to 6th in the Top 25 this week.  4 v 6 next weekend.  Will be an outrageous match.

Maybe not.  While NCC will presumably fall behind them, both Wheaton and Muhlenberg jumping them would not shock me (they both had VERY impressive wins).  Beating Carleton does not impress voters.  I think they'll either stay #7 or even fall to #8.  AND, of course, HSU has not yet played (though losing at home to TX Lu is almost inconceivable).

I'd make sure you're phone and address are unlisted, Ypsi, as it appears you put the hex on HSU.

Fortunately I doubt any HSU fans know who Mr. Ypsi is!

TX Lu IS a good team, but that result is a shocker!

I'll revise my estimate to Bethel will be 6th or 7th.  I, myself, would have Wheaton 5, Muhlenberg 6, and Bethel 7, but we'll know in c. 24 hours.

[miac952]

Given the UST result today, I don't know whether to laugh or cry at what resulted a week ago. The Cobbers are a football team that held tight against Whitewater for 3 quarters. If UST can do that against a respectable Concordia-Moorhead squad, it shows how poor the lack of preparation and execution was a week ago.

[RoyalsFan]

Singleton for Carleton throws for over 300 again and he's only a freshman.  He'll be a genuine influence on the conference in the next few years if Carleton can pull half a defence together.

Yes, he is a good qb but it will take more than half a defense to make a difference for them. You have to also look at the context. When you get behind big early and can't run the ball then you are forced to pass and the opposing defense is going to give up a few yards, just not wanting to give up the big play. Take today for example. He threw for 302 yards but he also threw 61 times with only a 44% completion percentage, plus they had negative 18 yards rushing. I don't see Carlton being much of a factor even with Singleton for the next few years unless something drastically changes.

[sjujohnnie]

Any predictions for the St John's/Bethel game? Should be the toughest test for both teams!

[johnnie_esq]

So what program at UST do you see paying for everything else?

Note the bumpy ride part. This isn't going to be built in a year or two.

For revenue generation the most opportunistic to me seems to be Hockey. By all accounts, both programs will land in solid hockey conferences. If schools like Miami (OH), UNO, and others can make the hockey thing work well, I believe being the only private college D1 program in a hockey hotbed is ripe for opportunity.

Basketball could over time as well. Men's soccer is a wildcard in all of this. They will be the only D1 Men's program in a state that is building a rabid soccer following (me not included  ).

Football will have the most difficult journey ahead, without question. UST's emphasis on balance and success across its athletic department will help.

I'm a D-1 hockey guy.

UST is in a hockey hotbed, but has little pull or tradition at the top level and, most importantly, no D-1 hockey facility.

First off, if the waiver is approved, UST hockey would likely be a good candidate to join the remnants of the WCHA, which locally would be Bemidji State and MSU-Mankato along with a bunch of Michigan schools (Michigan Tech, Northern Michigan, Ferris State, etc.).  While there is good hockey to be played there, it is hardly going to move the needle locally in terms of interest.  MSU-Mankato has been a local power recently in that conference and you barely see a mention in the Strib; UST being anywhere near as successful would be in a similar boat media-wise.

Perhaps the NCHC would take a flyer on UST, giving them the opportunity to compete against fellow Summit schools UND and Denver, along with SCSU and UMD.  UST isn't likely to outrecruit those schools with their traditions, recent success, or facilities.  That would be a tough deal and likely to be stuck in the basement there for a long time.  You have zero television coverage in a market dominated by the NHL and the U of M, and even SCSU has a darn good broadcast program.  Your home games would be filled with thousands of UND or UMD fans and several hundred in purple.  It would be a joke.

Most importantly, UST doesn't have a D-1 hockey facility.  Their shared facility with St. Thomas Academy is nowhere near appropriate; and there is nowhere near campus that would seat an appropriate 5000-7000 fans.  Penn State built such a facility recently at a cost of $110 million a few years ago.  Even if UST could come up with that money, a site is a different concern-- where would you build it?  There isn't enough room nor parking on the St. Paul campus, and a downtown Minneapolis site would drive that price up by an additional $10-20 million.  That's a lot of money in context of trying to afford other sport transitions also.

I suppose you could play at the Xcel or Target Center, but I would be shocked if they could draw 5000 for a game  in this market (especially against Western Michigan!).  That few of people in an arena that seats more than three times that is a terrible gameday experience not to mention an expensive rental proposition.

Simply put, hockey is a D-1 problem, not because of the talent for recruiting, but because of the cost/benefit of the situation.  In the old WCHA, it would be a better proposition, but that isn't an option anymore.

IMO, dropping hockey to ACHA club status and playing Pioneer League football would save them 161 full scholarships (63 football and 18 hockey and Title IX), which, at $40,000 per year, would be almost $6.5 million per year.  That's real money from an operational standpoint.  They would be better suited to focus on 24 full basketball scholarships and compete in M/W basketball, put a good volleyball and soccer team together, and consider preparing for lacrosse, as the U of M will have a hard time adding that sport in the future. 

[OzJohnnie]

I'll revise my estimate to Bethel will be 6th or 7th.  I, myself, would have Wheaton 5, Muhlenberg 6, and Bethel 7, but we'll know in c. 24 hours.

I would go Bethel, Muhlenberg, Wheaton.  The winner of SJU v BU rightly belongs in 4th. The loser drops and Wheaton/Muhlenberg move up.

But set up the battle for 4th between 4th and 5th. Gonna be one heck of a game.  I hope it's great weather and a big crowd on hand.

[TheChucker]

So what program at UST do you see paying for everything else?

Note the bumpy ride part. This isn't going to be built in a year or two.

For revenue generation the most opportunistic to me seems to be Hockey. By all accounts, both programs will land in solid hockey conferences. If schools like Miami (OH), UNO, and others can make the hockey thing work well, I believe being the only private college D1 program in a hockey hotbed is ripe for opportunity.

Basketball could over time as well. Men's soccer is a wildcard in all of this. They will be the only D1 Men's program in a state that is building a rabid soccer following (me not included  ).

Football will have the most difficult journey ahead, without question. UST's emphasis on balance and success across its athletic department will help.

I'm a D-1 hockey guy.

UST is in a hockey hotbed, but has little pull or tradition at the top level and, most importantly, no D-1 hockey facility.

First off, if the waiver is approved, UST hockey would likely be a good candidate to join the remnants of the WCHA, which locally would be Bemidji State and MSU-Mankato along with a bunch of Michigan schools (Michigan Tech, Northern Michigan, Ferris State, etc.).  While there is good hockey to be played there, it is hardly going to move the needle locally in terms of interest.  MSU-Mankato has been a local power recently in that conference and you barely see a mention in the Strib; UST being anywhere near as successful would be in a similar boat media-wise.

Perhaps the NCHC would take a flyer on UST, giving them the opportunity to compete against fellow Summit schools UND and Denver, along with SCSU and UMD.  UST isn't likely to outrecruit those schools with their traditions, recent success, or facilities.  That would be a tough deal and likely to be stuck in the basement there for a long time.  You have zero television coverage in a market dominated by the NHL and the U of M, and even SCSU has a darn good broadcast program.  Your home games would be filled with thousands of UND or UMD fans and several hundred in purple.  It would be a joke.

Most importantly, UST doesn't have a D-1 hockey facility.  Their shared facility with St. Thomas Academy is nowhere near appropriate; and there is nowhere near campus that would seat an appropriate 5000-7000 fans.  Penn State built such a facility recently at a cost of $110 million a few years ago.  Even if UST could come up with that money, a site is a different concern-- where would you build it?  There isn't enough room nor parking on the St. Paul campus, and a downtown Minneapolis site would drive that price up by an additional $10-20 million.  That's a lot of money in context of trying to afford other sport transitions also.

I suppose you could play at the Xcel or Target Center, but I would be shocked if they could draw 5000 for a game  in this market (especially against Western Michigan!).  That few of people in an arena that seats more than three times that is a terrible gameday experience not to mention an expensive rental proposition.

Simply put, hockey is a D-1 problem, not because of the talent for recruiting, but because of the cost/benefit of the situation.  In the old WCHA, it would be a better proposition, but that isn't an option anymore.

IMO, dropping hockey to ACHA club status and playing Pioneer League football would save them 161 full scholarships (63 football and 18 hockey and Title IX), which, at $40,000 per year, would be almost $6.5 million per year.  That's real money from an operational standpoint.  They would be better suited to focus on 24 full basketball scholarships and compete in M/W basketball, put a good volleyball and soccer team together, and consider preparing for lacrosse, as the U of M will have a hard time adding that sport in the future.

I'm not a UST alumnus but I've work with several. Many UST alumni have deep pockets (very very deep pockets in some cases) and care a LOT about athletics. UMD, Mankato and SCSU obviously have more tradition now, but those schools (mainly Mankato and SCSU) had zero tradition before Herb Brooks came along to change all that. UMD and Mankato don't play in their own on campus arena. None of those schools can come close to matching UST's alumni base, location nor academic repuation. To prospective student athletes, the prospect of getting a scholarship to go to a school with a good academic reputation in the heart of the upscale and trendy Summit neighborhood is a nice draw. I wouldn't count them out.

[bleedpurple]

Given the UST result today, I don't know whether to laugh or cry at what resulted a week ago. The Cobbers are a football team that held tight against Whitewater for 3 quarters. If UST can do that against a respectable Concordia-Moorhead squad, it shows how poor the lack of preparation and execution was a week ago.

I think Eau Claire didn't do the Cobbers any favors.  Putting 51 on C-M is hugely impressive. Clearly the Tommies were in no mood to play around today.

[TheChucker]

Given the UST result today, I don't know whether to laugh or cry at what resulted a week ago. The Cobbers are a football team that held tight against Whitewater for 3 quarters. If UST can do that against a respectable Concordia-Moorhead squad, it shows how poor the lack of preparation and execution was a week ago.

I think Eau Claire didn't do the Cobbers any favors.  Putting 51 on C-M is hugely impressive. Clearly the Tommies were in no mood to play around today.

That's the kind of game that puts the losing coach on the hot seat.

[johnnie_esq]

I'm not a UST alumnus but I've work with several. Many UST alumni have deep pockets (very very deep pockets in some cases) and care a LOT about athletics. UMD, Mankato and SCSU obviously have more tradition now, but those schools (mainly Mankato and SCSU) had zero tradition before Herb Brooks came along to change all that. UMD and Mankato don't play in their own on campus arena. None of those schools can come close to matching UST's alumni base, location nor academic repuation. To prospective student athletes, the prospect of getting a scholarship to go to a school with a good academic reputation in the heart of the upscale and trendy Summit neighborhood is a nice draw. I wouldn't count them out.

Remember that D-1 hockey is the only real D-1 draw in Grand Forks, Duluth, St. Cloud and Mankato. 

And if you are concerned about academics and are good enough to get a scholarship to play hockey in the NCHC, you can also get one to Harvard/Yale/Princeton/Cornell.  Miami of Ohio is a NCHC school too (a public ivy); and even then, it is an issue of drawing a big enough crowd to make it a worthwhile endeavor.  SCSU was the #1 team in the country for most of last year and could not sell out their rink; UMD was the defending national champion (and ended up winning it all again) and had the same problem.  Having good hockey is not enough to make them show up in this day and age.   And finally, Herb Brooks coached SCSU almost 30 years ago; UMD was in the national championship game in 1984 after almost 20 years playing D-1 hockey (remember they were in the MIAC in everything else then too!).  Brooks had little to do with Mankato or Bemidji. 

Again, it isn't that it will be hard to draw talent; there is plenty of D-1 hockey talent around here.  It is going to be hard to make it financially feasible on an annual basis.  The U of M makes around $6M in revenue from mens hockey; by contrast, SCSU is closer to $2.7M (and SCSU has expenses of approximately $2.4M on that, with lower tuition and in-state discounts that UST would not have).  Considering 36 scholarships at UST alone is $1.4M (assuming $40k tuition per year and because of Title IX, and not counting full cost-of-attendance costs, which would add another half-million to the figure), can you fund all your travel, coaching salaries, recruiting budget, and facility costs for $1.3M (between both M and W sports)?  Without a hosted facility that just cannot happen; even with a facility that is a loss leader.  Can you expect those donors to pay for money-losing propositions while playing against the resources and traditions of UND and UMD? 

It's just math and economics.  UST isn't stupid-- they are doing the math themselves.  But I just don't see it as working. I could be wrong and missing something, but I just don't think I am.

[TheChucker]

I'm not a UST alumnus but I've work with several. Many UST alumni have deep pockets (very very deep pockets in some cases) and care a LOT about athletics. UMD, Mankato and SCSU obviously have more tradition now, but those schools (mainly Mankato and SCSU) had zero tradition before Herb Brooks came along to change all that. UMD and Mankato don't play in their own on campus arena. None of those schools can come close to matching UST's alumni base, location nor academic repuation. To prospective student athletes, the prospect of getting a scholarship to go to a school with a good academic reputation in the heart of the upscale and trendy Summit neighborhood is a nice draw. I wouldn't count them out.

Remember that D-1 hockey is the only real D-1 draw in Grand Forks, Duluth, St. Cloud and Mankato. 

And if you are concerned about academics and are good enough to get a scholarship to play hockey in the NCHC, you can also get one to Harvard/Yale/Princeton/Cornell.  Miami of Ohio is a NCHC school too (a public ivy); and even then, it is an issue of drawing a big enough crowd to make it a worthwhile endeavor.  SCSU was the #1 team in the country for most of last year and could not sell out their rink; UMD was the defending national champion (and ended up winning it all again) and had the same problem.  Having good hockey is not enough to make them show up in this day and age.   And finally, Herb Brooks coached SCSU almost 30 years ago; UMD was in the national championship game in 1984 after almost 20 years playing D-1 hockey (remember they were in the MIAC in everything else then too!).  Brooks had little to do with Mankato or Bemidji. 

Again, it isn't that it will be hard to draw talent; there is plenty of D-1 hockey talent around here.  It is going to be hard to make it financially feasible on an annual basis.  The U of M makes around $6M in revenue from mens hockey; by contrast, SCSU is closer to $2.7M (and SCSU has expenses of approximately $2.4M on that, with lower tuition and in-state discounts that UST would not have).  Considering 36 scholarships at UST alone is $1.4M (assuming $40k tuition per year and because of Title IX, and not counting full cost-of-attendance costs, which would add another half-million to the figure), can you fund all your travel, coaching salaries, recruiting budget, and facility costs for $1.3M (between both M and W sports)?  Without a hosted facility that just cannot happen; even with a facility that is a loss leader.  Can you expect those donors to pay for money-losing propositions while playing against the resources and traditions of UND and UMD? 

It's just math and economics.  UST isn't stupid-- they are doing the math themselves.  But I just don't see it as working. I could be wrong and missing something, but I just don't think I am.

Again, good post. On the incremental scholarship cost, I'd caution that the scholarship "list price" isn't the actual cost to add one more student athlete to the school. Most college costs are fixed.

On whether hosting a D1 hockey team actually makes sense financially is another question. On paper, I'm guessing the MNSCU schools and UMD don't make much if any profit. However, it's difficult to calculate the financial benefit received from the positive atmosphere D1 athletics create. Athletics can be a great marketing tool and it adds to the student experience - which attracts more students and $$.

Regardless, this will be an interesting transition.

[johnnie_esq]

Again, good post. On the incremental scholarship cost, I'd caution that the scholarship "list price" isn't the actual cost to add one more student athlete to the school. Most college costs are fixed.

On whether hosting a D1 hockey team actually makes sense financially is another question. On paper, I'm guessing the MNSCU schools and UMD don't make much if any profit. However, it's difficult to calculate the financial benefit received from the positive atmosphere D1 athletics create. Athletics can be a great marketing tool and it adds to the student experience - which attracts more students and $$.

Regardless, this will be an interesting transition.

UST's semester Tuition Cost is listed as $22,390 (not including about an additional $1500 in fees) with low double room cost of $3700, meaning their likely sticker price is closer to or exceeding $50,000, so my $40,000 likely isn't that far off, considering full-cost-of-attendance figures that NCHC and WCHA squads will include for hockey.  I intended it to be conservatively low to show that the financials don't work in a best-case scenario; and it only goes downhill from there, unfortunately. 

Note, when I was on the SJU Alumni Board around 7-8 years ago, it was told to me then that the actual cost of education then was close to $29,000 at that time while tuition was around $10k more than that.  I cannot imagine UST is that far off, if not more, considering the Twin Cities pricing.

[TheChucker]

Again, good post. On the incremental scholarship cost, I'd caution that the scholarship "list price" isn't the actual cost to add one more student athlete to the school. Most college costs are fixed.

On whether hosting a D1 hockey team actually makes sense financially is another question. On paper, I'm guessing the MNSCU schools and UMD don't make much if any profit. However, it's difficult to calculate the financial benefit received from the positive atmosphere D1 athletics create. Athletics can be a great marketing tool and it adds to the student experience - which attracts more students and $$.

Regardless, this will be an interesting transition.

UST's semester Tuition Cost is listed as $22,390 (not including about an additional $1500 in fees) with low double room cost of $3700, meaning their likely sticker price is closer to or exceeding $50,000, so my $40,000 likely isn't that far off, considering full-cost-of-attendance figures that NCHC and WCHA squads will include for hockey.  I intended it to be conservatively low to show that the financials don't work in a best-case scenario; and it only goes downhill from there, unfortunately. 

Note, when I was on the SJU Alumni Board around 7-8 years ago, it was told to me then that the actual cost of education then was close to $29,000 at that time while tuition was around $10k more than that.  I cannot imagine UST is that far off, if not more, considering the Twin Cities pricing.

OK. I'll throw out another approach. Very high level. Here are some knowns:

* St. Thomas would need to spend roughly $20 million more annually to put them in the 90th percentile of athletic department budgets at D1 FCS level. Schools at this level are usually private East Coast that spend a sh$t ton in at least one sport.
* St. Thomas has roughly 10,000 total students.
* So the incremental expense to St. Thomas to go high level FCS could be about $2,000 per student.

That $2,000 cost would need to be covered by a combination of 1) increased revenue from athletics from all sources (gate, TV, etc.), 2) increased donations to the school from greater exposure, 3) increased population of students, 4) increased tuition.

Is that doable for UST? I have no idea, but UST senior management must think so given their recent announcement.