FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[Touchdown Tommy]

Oh but 105 Linfield should have won that game.  Just ask their delusional fans (I'm looking at you GHC, WildCat11, Bluenote, et al).

Clark: You appear confused.  This is understandable as I'm sure this is a high stress week in NorCal.  I was NOT insinuating that you run and hide from me.  Rather, you are avoiding addressing the fair wager that my pal TC has offered to you.  Just accept it and live with the results.  I bet TC would even cook you a steak while you rest on his plush couch.

This week marks the anniversary of one of the greatest stunts Kilted Rat & I pulled off in college.  May God have mercy on Blowj0b Betty's soul.  Does anyone remember the details of the famed blowup doll hanging from the footbridge on I-94 dressed head to toe in Tommie apparel as the Purple bus arrived in Collegeville?  

[SUMMIT!!!!!]

I think some of the keys of the game will be (as others have noted) special teams play (can SJU contain Waldvogel?), turnovers (UST thrives on getting good field position from opportunistic defensive play-- INT and FR).

BUT I think the biggest key of the game will be momentum/mental play. If UST can break to an early lead, they can control the time of possession ala Bethel a few years back and can push aside the "Ghosts of Failures Past." If the Tommies can build a big early lead, the momentum will clearly be rolling purple. 

Probably the biggest key to SJU's success all these many, many years has been ability of the coaching staff (read: JOHN) to make changes over the course of the game, adapting to the flow of play and turning that flow in SJU's favor. A big enough lead for UST (say, 21-0 at half) could make this adaptation more difficult.

I'm leaning towards a 31-14 UST win. A close game like the last couple years and SJU very likely will pull it out.

[WithasilentK]

Considering how much ground Tommy Becker can cover

He must've really improved since the last time I watched him play because I've always viewed him as a weakness in the pass defense of UST. Overagressive, takes bad angles, not able to move laterally, are things I've seen from him before.

I haven't been able to work out any scenario in my head for SJU winning other than UST not having the killer attitude they need to overcome however many straight losses to SJU. If SJU's offense is better than I think, that may do it too.

I'm starting to think around 34-20 UST.

Washedup: As someone who usually has a similar perspective to me on both teams, I'm curious to hear your thoughts...

[USTBench]

Considering how much ground Tommy Becker can cover

He must've really improved since the last time I watched him play because I've always viewed him as a weakness in the pass defense of UST. Overagressive, takes bad angles, not able to move laterally, are things I've seen from him before.

I haven't been able to work out any scenario in my head for SJU winning other than UST not having the killer attitude they need to overcome however many straight losses to SJU. If SJU's offense is better than I think, that may do it too.

I'm starting to think around 34-20 UST.

Washedup: As someone who usually has a similar perspective to me on both teams, I'm curious to hear your thoughts...

Is thinking more of his ability to move to traffic and mop up/finish more so than his ability to cover.

[Northern WinterHawk]

UST 42 - 16

[sfury]

Last time St. Thomas beat St. John's by more than two touchdowns? 1986.

This is the best St. Thomas team in a long time. Sure. But all those returning starters are the same guys who, in regulation, have scored 9 and 14 points the last two seasons.

I can certainly see St. Thomas winning. But I don't see them winning by two or three scores.

[WithasilentK]

Considering how much ground Tommy Becker can cover

He must've really improved since the last time I watched him play because I've always viewed him as a weakness in the pass defense of UST. Overagressive, takes bad angles, not able to move laterally, are things I've seen from him before.

I haven't been able to work out any scenario in my head for SJU winning other than UST not having the killer attitude they need to overcome however many straight losses to SJU. If SJU's offense is better than I think, that may do it too.

I'm starting to think around 34-20 UST.

Washedup: As someone who usually has a similar perspective to me on both teams, I'm curious to hear your thoughts...

Is thinking more of his ability to move to traffic and mop up/finish more so than his ability to cover.

Ah, ok, I agree with that.

[AlmostEx]

<<Contain is critical.>> Yep you are right.

<<as a d-lineman, you get used to it and deal with it.>> Yep   <<any o-lineman that says he doesn't hold on nearly every play is a liar.>>  I would expect them to admit they hold and I would expect them to hold until there is a penalty.  I expect them to hold and have no issue with "holding" as long as it is within the rules -- grasp within the shoulder pads, face mask to face mask.  One it is ear hold to ear hole (and a couple other things) it is a penalty.  This is a simple rule.



 

[WashedUp]

Considering how much ground Tommy Becker can cover

He must've really improved since the last time I watched him play because I've always viewed him as a weakness in the pass defense of UST. Overagressive, takes bad angles, not able to move laterally, are things I've seen from him before.

I haven't been able to work out any scenario in my head for SJU winning other than UST not having the killer attitude they need to overcome however many straight losses to SJU. If SJU's offense is better than I think, that may do it too.

I'm starting to think around 34-20 UST.

Washedup: As someone who usually has a similar perspective to me on both teams, I'm curious to hear your thoughts...

My thinking was about the same.  I think that UST has a slight edge against this SJU this year on all three sides of the ball (big edge on special teams) and they have a good coach to go along with it.  The only reason I am hesitant to say that UST will beat SJU is because the Johnnies seem to always find a way to win, especially in Collegeville.  That being said, I think UST is too much for them this year.  35-27 UST

[tommiegun]

Last time St. Thomas beat St. John's by more than two touchdowns? 1986.

This is the best St. Thomas team in a long time. Sure. But all those returning starters are the same guys who, in regulation, have scored 9 and 14 points the last two seasons.

I can certainly see St. Thomas winning. But I don't see them winning by two or three scores.

I think we all remember this 9... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-oNrQAYmeWw&feature=related

My Keys to the Game (and I have no bona fides so take this with a grain of salt)

Coaching/Game Plan.  Despite the final score last year, I thought SJU drew up a brilliant game plan for UST.  This year it will take an even better game plan.  SJU will want as much ball control as possible, but I expect the bitter taste of UWEC still remains and we will see a ball control game that has some flair and well time flexibility.  Advantage SJU.

Offense.  As long as SJU isn’t one dimensional, making it really, really easy on the UST defensive coaches, and as long as they aren’t negative in the turnover department, they will get their points.

Defense.  The SJU defense has yet to have a complete game.  They have yet to have their best game.  I expect them to have a complete game and best game season to date.  I do not see match-up issues or a clear advantage for UST.  I would guess UST coaching staff having watched film believes they have the advantage – this will work against them.  Advantage SJU.

Special Teams.  This is (my) concern.  This is UST strength against, um . . . developing strength for SJU.  If the kickoffs are not in the end zone and on the 10-15 yard line as has been the case, their return guy is going to get them a short field to work with.  I hope SJU proves me wrong, but Advantage UST.

Home Field.  There can be no question.  Advantage SJU.

Intangible.  I hope the MIAC has the sense to assign the absolutely best crew for this game.  The crew for the Concordia game, was the worst (UWEC loss included) I have ever seen at any level.  Control your own destiny SJU!

SJU by seven.  SJU will have at least one more big play than UST which will result in a touchdown and that will be the difference on the score board.

The keys to the game are (1) General Coaching (2) Offense (3) Defense (4) Special Teams (5) Location and (6) Intangibles?  Thanks John Madden.  Why not throw in Cheerleading, pre-game meal consumption, health, injuries, jersey tensile strength, Bus Driver quality, temperature, and phase of the moon; just to be sure we covered everything?

Keys:

SJU: (1) Limit the Big Play.  UST has struggled, at times, moving the ball when it cannot spring a big play.  They appear to get frustrated and impatient - which leads to errors and stalled drives. (2) Establish the medium/short pass game.  I just don't think SJU will have success running the ball between the tackles.  Thus, the key to the Johnnies success will be hitting the corners on pitches/slants/etc.  The UST OLB's, as a group, are good tacklers and fast.  To keep the outside open, they need to keep these LB's concerned with stopping slants/curls/ins.

UST: (1) Contra to SJU 1&2.  Keep focus and march; keep SJU from establishing a short passing game. (2) "Deal with it."  "It" being the decade+ long losing streak, the pressure of being ranked higher, the hostile environment - The mind game.  If UST can play this game for what it is, another 2010 football game against a quality opponent, not what it isn't (the best chance against its rival in years) it should win.

UST 31
SJU 21

[MIAC23]

UST - 32
SJU - 17

[DuffMan]

I haven't seen the Toms play in a while and was in Puerto Rico during last year's game, so I'm not sure exactly how they'll stack up.  Part of me believes that the Johnnies will put on a stellar performance and send the Tommies home disappointed yet again.  Another part of me believes that the Tommies have been so close for years, that they are finally goin to win a squeaker.  And still a small part of me believes the Tommies are the real deal and are going to lay down a monkeystomp in Collegeville.

So, which instinct to believe?  I'll just say this:  I will be thrilled, yet somewhat surprised, if the Johnnies win.  But I am expecting the Johnnies to win  

Regardless, it should be a fun atmosphere.  I think I've got my logistics figured out.  See ya'll sometime Saturday morning.

[USTBench]

Bill Swerski Superfan Prediction:

Tommiessss  Eighty-tree  St. Johns 2

Johnnies will get two points after Dakota Tracy bets Josh Ostrue he can't hit the scoreboard snapping it from the opposite 20.

Real Prediction:

UST 24
SJU 17

[AlmostEx]

Re Tommiegun.

Clearly a much better insight and analysis -- I defer to your wisdom.

[USTBench]

Just booked the Days Inn St. Cloud for Friday & Saturday. It's got a waterslide and a continental breakfast. Now how to get from St. Joe's to St. Cloud on Saturday night?