FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[ron doney]

As talented as the Tommie's defenenders are, their best defense is their slow and methodical offense. Twice last weekend they scored on 75+ yard drives, one of 10 plays the other of 16.  They chewed up nearly 13 mins of clock combined.  If they can get three of those this weekend, I like their chances. That starts on the UST O-line and trusts O'Connell to not turn the ball over in his own backfield (long interceptions are fine).  When UST is stopped I like their punting game. Average starting field position for UMU will be key and that responsibility falls directly on the UST offense - limit three and outs, no backfield turnovers and no short punts.

The UST defense will need to stop the run with just their front seven - and get pressure on the QB. The secondary will be playing deeper than normal so they don't get beat over the top, especially on play action.  There will be a lot of room in the middle of the field and if the UMU QB can find receivers there all day, then they'll be unstoppable.

I like the Tommie's: 25 - 20.  The defense scores and Caruso goes for two at some point.

You need to look at what you just wrote a second time IMO.  You said last week UST sustained two long drives against UWO.  No doubt that is the strength of the team in the line play being able to dominate.  You said you like their chances against Mount if they get three long drives.  You do know the defense you are talking about and looking at UWo I think Mount's defense is superior.  So UST has to do 50% better against the best defense in the country.  Also you are projecting Mount to score 20 points for the game when they have averaged more than 60 per game in the playoffs and nearly that for th year.  I think Mount score 20 points in the last half of the 4th quarter last week against a team with a pretty good defense UMHB.  If USt has a chance to win they will need to score over 30

So I looked and yes UMU has a much better defense than UWO, I'll give you that.

Percentages are big on small numbers, so you 50% comment is weak. UST had a handful of turnovers against UWO. Had they held on to the ball - as I say they need to tonight - they would have had a third or fourth sustained drive. I think they can move the ball against a very good UMU defense if they can get to 3rd and 5 or better on each set of downs.....which means the O-line must win the line of scrimmage on first and second down opening small holes for Braddock.

UST won't win trying to out score UMU. Thus the point of my post:  long fields for UMU tonight and less plays from scrimmage and/or time of possession (because UST offense eats up the clock) and they won't score as much. If they don't score as much, UST could win.

The intent here is to explore in greater detail how UST might win. I agree it won't happen in a horse race.

[emma17]

As talented as the Tommie's defenenders are, their best defense is their slow and methodical offense. Twice last weekend they scored on 75+ yard drives, one of 10 plays the other of 16.  They chewed up nearly 13 mins of clock combined.  If they can get three of those this weekend, I like their chances. That starts on the UST O-line and trusts O'Connell to not turn the ball over in his own backfield (long interceptions are fine).  When UST is stopped I like their punting game. Average starting field position for UMU will be key and that responsibility falls directly on the UST offense - limit three and outs, no backfield turnovers and no short punts.

The UST defense will need to stop the run with just their front seven - and get pressure on the QB. The secondary will be playing deeper than normal so they don't get beat over the top, especially on play action.  There will be a lot of room in the middle of the field and if the UMU QB can find receivers there all day, then they'll be unstoppable.

I like the Tommie's: 25 - 20.  The defense scores and Caruso goes for two at some point.

You need to look at what you just wrote a second time IMO.  You said last week UST sustained two long drives against UWO.  No doubt that is the strength of the team in the line play being able to dominate.  You said you like their chances against Mount if they get three long drives.  You do know the defense you are talking about and looking at UWo I think Mount's defense is superior.  So UST has to do 50% better against the best defense in the country.  Also you are projecting Mount to score 20 points for the game when they have averaged more than 60 per game in the playoffs and nearly that for th year.  I think Mount score 20 points in the last half of the 4th quarter last week against a team with a pretty good defense UMHB.  If USt has a chance to win they will need to score over 30

So I looked and yes UMU has a much better defense than UWO, I'll give you that.

Percentages are big on small numbers, so you 50% comment is weak. UST had a handful of turnovers against UWO. Had they held on to the ball - as I say they need to tonight - they would have had a third or fourth sustained drive. I think they can move the ball against a very good UMU defense if they can get to 3rd and 5 or better on each set of downs.....which means the O-line must win the line of scrimmage on first and second down opening small holes for Braddock.

UST won't win trying to out score UMU. Thus the point of my post:  long fields for UMU tonight and less plays from scrimmage and/or time of possession (because UST offense eats up the clock) and they won't score as much. If they don't score as much, UST could win.

The intent here is to explore in greater detail how UST might win. I agree it won't happen in a horse race.

Good post ron d. Move the chains and own field position.  Make Mt have to cover a lot of ground to score- more chances for turnovers.

[retagent]

Great moments are born from great opportunity. And that's what you have here tonight, boys. That's what you've earned here, tonight. One game. If we played 'em ten times, they might win nine. But not this game. Not tonight. Tonight, we [play] with 'em. Tonight, we stay with 'em, and we shut them down because we can! Tonight, we are the greatest [Division III football] team in the world. You were b
orn to be [Division III football] players -- every one of ya. And you were meant to be here tonight. This is your time. Their time -- is done. It's over. I'm sick and tired of hearin' about what a great [Division III football] team [Mount Union] has. Screw 'em!

This is your time!!

Now go out there and take it!

GO GET A CHAMPIONSHIP TOMMIES!

The ghost of Herbie Brooks on a Stagg  Bowl Friday.

[ron doney]

Great point by Keith on Triple Take:
---------------------
Re: Mount turnovers.

I've seen them in three playoff games now. The Burke INTs against UMHB I can excuse, as they're good plays by a great D as much as bad decisions by the QB.

The fumbles are tough. I'll be curious to see the division of carries between Simon, Skilliter and Lattimore today. Some have fumbled more than others, and all three seem to be different style runners. I wonder if Skilliter wasn't also a starting CB would he get the lion's share of the carries.

You all who have watched all season, please chime in.
--------------------

If there is one area the UMU backers could be a little less confident in it should be these fumbles.

UMU had 3 turnovers on 4 fumbles(the QB recovered his own).  Great defenses cause fumbles, regardless how much you try to not allow it.  UMHB is a great defense. So lets creditnthem with say half of those fumbles.  In the same vein, UST is a great defense and therefore should be expected to cause a fumble or two. That might be all it takes to turn the game.

I will say again that I don't believe pics on long shots downfield are going to be detrimental to either team as much as fumbles in their own backfield.  UST is going to have to trust their defense with a long field and take a deep play action shot once a quarter.  If they score once, turn the ball over on another and throw two incompletions, I think that is price they can be comfotable paying for points outside of their grind 'em approach.

[OzJohnnie]

Great moments are born from great opportunity. And that's what you have here tonight, boys. That's what you've earned here, tonight. One game. If we played 'em ten times, they might win nine. But not this game. Not tonight. Tonight, we [play] with 'em. Tonight, we stay with 'em, and we shut them down because we can! Tonight, we are the greatest [Division III football] team in the world. You were b
orn to be [Division III football] players -- every one of ya. And you were meant to be here tonight. This is your time. Their time -- is done. It's over. I'm sick and tired of hearin' about what a great [Division III football] team [Mount Union] has. Screw 'em!

This is your time!!

Now go out there and take it!

GO GET A CHAMPIONSHIP TOMMIES!

The ghost of Herbie Brooks on a Stagg  Bowl Friday.

The reason people pray for miracles is because they are so rare.  I don't think St Herbie will be answering the call of the coeds today.

[tommiegun]

Great moments are born from great opportunity. And that's what you have here tonight, boys. That's what you've earned here, tonight. One game. If we played 'em ten times, they might win nine. But not this game. Not tonight. Tonight, we [play] with 'em. Tonight, we stay with 'em, and we shut them down because we can! Tonight, we are the greatest [Division III football] team in the world. You were b
orn to be [Division III football] players -- every one of ya. And you were meant to be here tonight. This is your time. Their time -- is done. It's over. I'm sick and tired of hearin' about what a great [Division III football] team [Mount Union] has. Screw 'em!

This is your time!!

Now go out there and take it!

GO GET A CHAMPIONSHIP TOMMIES!

The ghost of Herbie Brooks on a Stagg  Bowl Friday.

The reason people pray for miracles is because they are so rare.  I don't think St Herbie will be answering the call of the coeds today.

You'll never know if you don't ask.

[Retired Old Rat]

UMU 62
UST   5

Tommies get a field goal and Mount's 4th string qb trips and gives up a safety.   

[finsleft]

3 finalists named for SJU head coach position: Mike Grant, Gary Fasching and Kurt Ramler. Interviews next week.

[johnnie_esq]

3 finalists named for SJU head coach position: Mike Grant, Gary Fasching and Kurt Ramler. Interviews next week.

Shocking! 

[DuffMan]

Yeah, really shocking. 

Press Release

[tommiegun]

Just like the Johnnies to announce on Stagg Bowl day... but I guess they've got nothing else going on.   

[finsleft]

Just like the Johnnies to announce on Stagg Bowl day... but I guess they've got nothing else going on.   

Yep, I'm sure it was planned that way. But St. John's is only the first school to rain on your parade today.

[Bombers798891]

Great stat in the Triple Take:

Since 1992, the Purple Raiders are 29-2 against first-time opponents in the postseason — UW-LaCrosse in 1992 and Mary Hardin-Baylor in 2004 are the lone winners — and in that span they have scored 50+ points 12 times while giving up less than 10 points 12 times.

So in other words, that's good news for St. Thomas!

29-2 is a .935 winning percentage

Based on my math, Mount is 254-10 in all other games since the start of 1992, a winning percentage of .963. (If we go post-1992 the percentage barely changes)

"Sooooo...you're saying there's a chance"

[ron doney]

Just like the Johnnies to announce on Stagg Bowl day... but I guess they've got nothing else going on.   

Yep, I'm sure it was planned that way. But St. John's is only the first school to rain on your parade today.

Yeah couldn't they have waited until after we loss. Nothing would have cheered me up more than this news.   

[desertcat1]

Great stat in the Triple Take:

Since 1992, the Purple Raiders are 29-2 against first-time opponents in the postseason — UW-LaCrosse in 1992 and Mary Hardin-Baylor in 2004 are the lone winners — and in that span they have scored 50+ points 12 times while giving up less than 10 points 12 times.

So in other words, that's good news for St. Thomas!

29-2 is a .935 winning percentage

Based on my math, Mount is 254-10 in all other games since the start of 1992, a winning percentage of .963. (If we go post-1992 the percentage barely changes)

"Sooooo...you're saying there's a chance"

YES,  slim and none