FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[ron doney]

Observation:  Wondering if the big change at SJU is the change in coaching philosophy as opposed to the change in personnel.  Many of the players are the same as last year, but there seems to be a renewed energy and confidence brought on by the new coaching staff.  Maybe John had slowed down to the point it was rubbing off on the team.  If this is the case the future looks bright for the Johnnies, their roster seems full of players these coaches can work with for years.

Is the average time to graduate at St. John's still 6.8 years?  Can't remember....

[sfury]

......which leads me to believe:

That is the best half of offense (163 yards, 14 pts) that SJ1 will have against the likes of UST, Concordia, Bethel and Aug.  More the power to them that they did it against UST.

As an abstract theory in a vacuum, it works. But, with all of the variables in the real world, I doubt this plays out anywhere close to what you predict. CC, BU and AUG have different players with different strengths and different weaknesses running a variety of different defensive schemes.

And, as sfury noted Rob Voshell is back this week. Also, Gary mentioned in his online SCTimes.com weekly chat that Peter Vakuskas was fitted with a knee brace, and he will try to practice this week. Sean Tillman has started to run and work out, we will see how he feels this week. The punters are both OK and ready to go. There were a couple of people who stood out [in the Sunday scrimmage], a wide receiver, Dan Harrington out of Texas, and Davis Day, a linebacker out of California. We also saw some great things out of some of our young defensive linemen, Ryan Landherr out of Prior Lake looked good.

Perhaps your analysis would work when applied to the SJU teams from 2009-2012, but I think you can throw all of that out the window now.

To throw a little rain on the parade...

Actually that's not the right phrase. With no disrespect toward Ramler -- who I think will be fantastic, hopefully for many years -- we should give some credit to the oft-maligned Jim G.'s offense.

Total points through first 3 games 2009-2012 (and not including the Northwestern games from past years, which were in 50s, etc.). So this is first three games again MIAC or WIAC foes:

2013: 54
2012: 73
2011: 78
2010: 108
2009: 94

The offense had its issues the past few years, no doubt. Some killer turnovers, some inconsistency. But let's face it, the main reason, by far, the team wasn't what it had been was because the defense had absolutely fallen off a cliff and then had the car fall on it once it hit the water. A defense Gary had a big role with.

And I'm probably the leading John G. champion on the board and am biased so grain of salt, etc., but I'll just say in regards to the energy/confidence/philosophy...close wins do remarkable things. As we've noted, they're 3 plays away from being 0-3, just as in 2010 they were a few plays from being 10-0. It was great seeing that they could physically match up against the Tommies upfront compared to '11 and '12 but that seems to have to do with personnel. I don't doubt there's a different type of atmosphere, etc., but when the Johnnies offense looked like garbage for nearly the whole game against River Falls, I was rolling my eyes at some of the "more intense practice" quotes that were in every story leading up to it.

That said, obviously love the job Fasching/Ramler/company have done so far and I do think these close victories can carry over throughout the year.

[SagatagSam]

It's well understood Jim G. is often a scapegoat. I didn't intend to infer that the offensive woes were only because of him. Lest we forget he was the OC for some of the absolute juggernaut offenses of SJU's past.

I should've been more specific in my reference to my comment on the SJU team from 2009-12. I intended my comment to be more general in reference to the whole team this year.

[OzJohnnie]

I reckon right about now the Cobbers  Johnnies are convincing themselves that they are underdogs with nothing to lose. That they are guys who can play without limits. I hope they are. It's been a few years since the Johnnies have walked the field with the swagger of the overdog.  I wonder how well they can do it.  Can they live with the pressure.  I bet yes.

There, I fixed it for you. What time is it down-under? Boozin' Time 

I reckon right about now the Cobbers  Johnnies are convincing themselves that they are underdogs with nothing to lose. That they are guys who can play without limits. I hope they are. It's been a few years since the Johnnies have walked the field with the swagger of the overdog.  I wonder how well they can do it.  Can they live with the pressure.  I bet yes.

There, I fixed it for you. What time is it down-under? Boozin' Time 

I reckon right about now the Cobbers  Johnnies are convincing themselves that they are underdogs with nothing to lose. That they are guys who can play without limits. I hope they are. It's been a few years since the Johnnies have walked the field with the swagger of the overdog.  I wonder how well they can do it.  Can they live with the pressure.  I bet yes.

There, I fixed it for you. What time is it down-under? Boozin' Time 

It 8:30 am. Am it's always boozing time in Oz. 

[SJUrube]

......which leads me to believe:

That is the best half of offense (163 yards, 14 pts) that SJ1 will have against the likes of UST, Concordia, Bethel and Aug.  More the power to them that they did it against UST.

If yards and points are your measures of success the Johnnies first half was much more successful than the second half against UST. To quote every major market sports talk host, "At the end of the day the total points on the scoreboard are the only thing that matters." But to guesstimate what SJU can do against the remaining top teams on their schedule you have to account for many factors as Fury and Sam have pointed out. Context of the game also matters. As a game progresses where you are on the scoreboard and field is going to influence what plays are called and ultimately how the players execute them. As a result the final stats may not tell the full story.

If memory serves me right SJU held the lead throughout much of the 2nd half and when they gave it up the next drive produced a FG to retake it. Any good offensive/defensive play caller should be aware of what the other has done and is capable of. As Don indicated some of the SJU faithful wished Ramler had been more aggressive with his play calling in the 2nd half, particularly in Q4. Had SJU lost that would probably be a majority opinion and I don't totally disagree with. The SJU D though was playing very well and had created a number of TOs so limiting the opportunity of SJU doing the same had to be part of the mindset. In doing so you're probably not looking to launch the ball down the field, which so far SJU has yet to do successfully at any point in a game.

As for looking ahead to the rest of the year I thought it would be prudent to also look back. Below are the total yards, points, and high half point total during the first two games of 2013 and against the top 4 MIAC teams from 2012. I don't think there's an easy way to find yards by half so I've included average yards by half.

2013:
327 total yards vs UW-RF (163 ave). 17 points total, 10 in the 2nd half. 1 - 0
378 total yards vs UW-EC (189 ave) and out gained them. 17 points total, all in the first half.  1 - 1

2012:
SJU 340 total yards vs UST (170 ave). 21 points total, 14 in the 1st half.
SJU 370 total yards vs Concordia (185 ave) and out gained them. 21 points total, 14 in the 2nd half.
SJU 238 yards vs Auggie Tech (119 ave). 17 points total, 10 in the 1st half.
SJU 310 yards vs Bethel (155 ave). 22 points total, 13 in the first half. 

Over those 6 games SJU had at least one half of 160+ yards and 14 points in three of them. In two of them they failed to do either, though it's possible they had 160+ in one half against Bethel and 150 in the other. The Auggie game is obviously the worst and was the fourth loss in a row following a heartbreaker against Olaf at home.

In all reality these numbers don't mean much other than to point out that although SJU's first half against UST was nice I think it's silly to call it their high water mark for the year. Even during a down year in 2012 they reached the same arbitrary output as last Sat multiple times. With many of the same players back and new ones gaining experience each week, while still adjusting to a new coaching staff, I'm guessing there are better days to come for the SJU offense in 2013.

[BDB]

I reckon right about now the Cobbers  Johnnies are convincing themselves that they are underdogs with nothing to lose. That they are guys who can play without limits. I hope they are. It's been a few years since the Johnnies have walked the field with the swagger of the overdog.  I wonder how well they can do it.  Can they live with the pressure.  I bet yes.

There, I fixed it for you. What time is it down-under? Boozin' Time 

I reckon right about now the Cobbers  Johnnies are convincing themselves that they are underdogs with nothing to lose. That they are guys who can play without limits. I hope they are. It's been a few years since the Johnnies have walked the field with the swagger of the overdog.  I wonder how well they can do it.  Can they live with the pressure.  I bet yes.

There, I fixed it for you. What time is it down-under? Boozin' Time 

I reckon right about now the Cobbers  Johnnies are convincing themselves that they are underdogs with nothing to lose. That they are guys who can play without limits. I hope they are. It's been a few years since the Johnnies have walked the field with the swagger of the overdog.  I wonder how well they can do it.  Can they live with the pressure.  I bet yes.

There, I fixed it for you. What time is it down-under? Boozin' Time 

It 8:30 am. Am it's always boozing time in Oz. 

15 hour difference then from you to Collegeville time. That means Oz gets up at 4am on game days (Sunday morning) to listen/watch/post. Outstanding.

[OzJohnnie]

And seeing as I'm still more than half cooked on most Sunday mornings I would say doubly outstanding.

[OzJohnnie]

It's the Grand Final tomorrow. Hawthorn v Fremantle. The #1 offense vs the #1 defense. How about a little footy humor to set the mood?


It's the AFL Grand Final and a man makes his way to his seat right behind the goal square. He sits down, noticing that the seat next to him is empty.

He leans over and asks his neighbour if someone will be sitting there.

"No," says the neighbour. "The seat is empty"

This is incredible", said the man. "Who in their right  mind would have a seat like this for the Grand final and not use it?"

The neighbour says "Well, actually, the seat belongs to me. I was supposed to come with my wife, but she passed away. This is the first Grand Final we haven't been to together since we got married in  1966"

"Oh ... I'm sorry to hear that. That's terrible. But couldn't you find someone else, a friend or relative, or even a neighbour to take the seat?"

The man shakes his head "No, they're all at the funeral."

[SagatagSam]

15 hour difference then from you to Collegeville time. That means Oz gets up at 4am on game days (Sunday morning) to listen/watch/post[drink]. Outstanding.

There, I fixed it.

[OldAuggie]

Expecting Hamline to try a steady diet of running the ball on Saturday to keep the Augsburg offense off the field. Hamline had a good day last weekend running against Carleton with their running back carrying the ball 48 times?! . I also expect the Auggies will take care of business Saturday. It's Homecoming and they are playing for the Hammer. This is a good test for the defense and I think "bend but don't break" applies here. If the Auggies can put a few scores on the board early then Hamline will ditch their running game and it could get ugly.

[SagatagSam]

Good news concerning the revised forecast for Collegeville this Saturday.
All forecasts to date have said rain all day Saturday in Collegeville, now the prediction is that he rain will taper sometime around 11 a.m..

[USTBench]

If the Cobs and SJU were in Moorhead tomorrow I would strongly consider going down to watch. Really not looking forward to watching UND have 50 hung up on them again by another top 5 ranked Montana school.

The Big Sky is a magical place where defense doesn't exist and the final outcome looks like a high school basketball score.

[SJUrube]

Caught some highlights of the Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech game last night. I think someone on the board mentioned Concordia's offense has elements similar to G Tech. I'll be in Collegeville and looking forward to seeing it in person. It's always fun to see an offensive system that isn't the norm. The misdirection and quick hitting stuff that comes out the quick motion sets are great to see. Hoping the Johnnies are up for the challenge.

[AO]

POST #2000

To commemorate my All-American status I'll break down this week's games and give away my Lead Pipe Lock of the Week™

Hamline (+28.5) @ Augsburg "The Hammer" -- Augsburg's Arytingtingtonton Scott goes for 400 yards on the ground and through the air, but Hamline is able to grind enough clock on the ground to keep it close enough.

Conference: 3pts
Concordia (+6.5) @ #21 St. John's - St. John's rides their new-found confidence to a 2 touchdown victory in Collegeville.   
#5 Bethel @ Carleton (+42.5) - Bethel strikes early and often.
St. Olaf @ Gustavus (EVEN)  - Gustavus by 10.  Too much Dubose.

West Region: 1pt
#10 Pacific Lutheran @ UW-Eau Claire (+14.5) - Lead Pipe Lock of the Week™ - Eau Claire keeps it close with the run game.

National: 1pt
Lycoming (+5.5) @ #24 Widener - Lycoming in a nail biter.

If the Cobs and SJU were in Moorhead tomorrow I would strongly consider going down to watch. Really not looking forward to watching UND have 50 hung up on them again by another top 5 ranked Montana school.

The Big Sky is a magical place where defense doesn't exist and the final outcome looks like a high school basketball score.

It's never too late to join the Bison bandwagon.  The defense you're looking for is in the Missouri Valley.

This has been a pretty slow week, I wonder what ChicagoTommie is thinking.

[faunch]

For those that can't attend the SJU game tomorrow (myself included)...10U fall softball...my daughter wants me to watch her pitch. 
I believe the audio webcast can be streamed through the am1330 website.
http://www.relevantradio.com
I tried the listen now link on my Android phone and it worked...I expect it would work on an iPhone as well.