FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[RoyalsFan]

RoyalsFan-

Here is the Reader's Digest version.

BU wins out, the are in as MIAC Champs,. With another loss they are a strong candidate for Pool C, but Pool C is a very fluid situation & a lot can change on the fly.

If SJU wins out , they need to hope CCM loses another game.

If CCM wins out, they need to hope BU drops 2.

If UST wins out, they need to hope SJU drops another game

This year does not look favorable for the MIAC getting 2 teams in,but BU has the highest probability of getting in with 2 losses.

Forget about all the tie-breakers & just concentrate on winning each week,then see where the chips fall at the end of the year.

I pretty much understand all the other scenarios - the only one I was confused about was the situation where Art was describing Concordia's chances and it sounded like Art was saying Concordia would be the conference champs if BU had a loss and 'they' (which I took to mean Concordia) won out. I now realize that he probably meant if BU lost 1 game and they (BU, not Concordia) won out then BU would be the conference champs. It just wasn't clear who 'they' referred to in the Concordia recap - since it was about Concordia's playoff chances, I just assumed 'they' referred to Concordia.

[OzJohnnie]

Top 10 goals of the year: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7hD0-xTv2w

[art76]

"Bethel wins out – they go to playoffs as conference champs. They lose any one conference game and they are on the bubble – may get into the playoffs, but probably not – only if the other one loss teams knock each other down to two losses.

Concordia wins out – they go to the finals as a Pool C bid if Bethel wins out. If BU loses a game and they win out, they go to finals as conference champs. They lose another game and they may get into the playoffs, but probably not."

Sorry for the uncertainty RoyalsFan - What I posted earlier and quoted above could be misconstrued. (It was clear in my mind  )

Concerning Concordia - with the MIAC Rules spelled out in my first response to you here's how it falls out. Non-conference games do not count at the conference level in determining who is the conference champ. If there were a three or four or even five way tie at the end of the season, they would all be co-champions. The rules then spell out who would represent the conference in the play-offs.

If BU loses a game and only Concordia and BU have that single loss, then they would be co-champs and I thought incorrectly that Concordia would get the bid because they had the better overall record. But Bethel would go because of head to head competition. If there are three teams with all one loss, then it gets messier - that's what I also tried to clarify in the previous response post.

The other thing I was trying to share with as few words as possible was that both Bethel and Concordia could end the season with 9 and 1 records, provided both teams win out. If that happens, then BU is conference champs and Concordia is just about a shoe-in as a Pool C bid team.

If BU does lose another game to any other one loss team, and now there is a three way tie at the top - and it gets messy. Like 105 alluded to earlier, teams need to win and let the chips fall where they may. We here on this board have the opportunity to speculate and prognosticate and evaluate the "what ifs", but the teams do not have that luxury - they have to win.

Hope this helps,

[SagatagSam]

Sura's gonna roll into the record books if all goes as it should as the Johnnies win.

The only reason I don't see Sura running roughshod over the Knights is that I can't see Fasching risking an injury to him if it gets ugly early.

I'd be surprised if Sura has more than 100-120 yards against Carleton, which should be about 1.5 quarters worth of work for him.
If the speculation about Carleton being worse than Hamline is true, I would think he will be out in just about the same amount of time (which was the first drive of the second quarter).

[art76]

What else could happen at the end of the 2014 season?

1. Bethel could lose one game to either St. Thomas, Gustavus or St. John's, win all the rest and now there would be 3 teams tied at the top with Concordia.

2. Bethel could lose to Augsburg only, which would make BU and Concordia, provided they win out, the only one loss teams in the conference, but Bethel would represent the conference as an 8 and 2 team and Concordia is almost a shoe-in at 9 and 1.

3. Bethel could loose to St. Thomas and then St. Thomas could lose to Concordia or Gustavus and you have a similar instance where a two loss Bethel team takes the conference over 9 and 1 Concordia because of the head-to-head win.

4. St. Thomas has to win out and hope that St. John's or Gustavus can also beat Bethel to be undisputed conference champs, otherwise they share the title with another team.

5. St. John's has to win out and hope that St. Thomas beats Bethel, that Concordia beats St. Thomas, and Gustavus has to lose another game to one of these other 3 teams, otherwise they share the title with another team.

6. Gustavus has to win out and hope that St. Thomas can beat Bethel, Bethel wins over St. John's and St. Thomas beat Concordia to be undisputed conference champs, otherwise they share the title with another team. They have the most to "hope for" in my estimation, but that's what needs to happen for them to be undisputed conference champs, otherwise they share the title with other one loss teams.


Can there still be a tie at the top of the conference with teams with 2 losses?

So Bethel has to lose 2,  the other four teams have to lose one more. Hmmm, let's see.

If Bethel loses to St. Thomas and Gustavus they would have two losses.
If Bethel Beats St. John's, St. John's would have two losses.
If Concordia beats St. Thomas, St. Thomas has two losses.
If Gustavus beats Concordia, Concordia has two losses.
If St. Thomas beats Gustavus, Gustavus would have two losses.

So yes, it is possible for all 5 top teams to end the season with two losses to each other with only four weeks of play left. And that doesn't included the rest of the teams in the MIAC that could pull off an upset. Is it likely that there will be 5 two loss teams at the top of the MIAC at the end of the year? No, it is not. 

[RoyalsFan]

"Bethel wins out – they go to playoffs as conference champs. They lose any one conference game and they are on the bubble – may get into the playoffs, but probably not – only if the other one loss teams knock each other down to two losses.

Concordia wins out – they go to the finals as a Pool C bid if Bethel wins out. If BU loses a game and they win out, they go to finals as conference champs. They lose another game and they may get into the playoffs, but probably not."

Sorry for the uncertainty RoyalsFan - What I posted earlier and quoted above could be misconstrued. (It was clear in my mind  )

Concerning Concordia - with the MIAC Rules spelled out in my first response to you here's how it falls out. Non-conference games do not count at the conference level in determining who is the conference champ. If there were a three or four or even five way tie at the end of the season, they would all be co-champions. The rules then spell out who would represent the conference in the play-offs.

If BU loses a game and only Concordia and BU have that single loss, then they would be co-champs and I thought incorrectly that Concordia would get the bid because they had the better overall record. But Bethel would go because of head to head competition. If there are three teams with all one loss, then it gets messier - that's what I also tried to clarify in the previous response post.

The other thing I was trying to share with as few words as possible was that both Bethel and Concordia could end the season with 9 and 1 records, provided both teams win out. If that happens, then BU is conference champs and Concordia is just about a shoe-in as a Pool C bid team.

If BU does lose another game to any other one loss team, and now there is a three way tie at the top - and it gets messy. Like 105 alluded to earlier, teams need to win and let the chips fall where they may. We here on this board have the opportunity to speculate and prognosticate and evaluate the "what ifs", but the teams do not have that luxury - they have to win.

Hope this helps,

Yes, that does help clear things up as far as who gets the playoff berth between BU and Concordia if they both have 1 conference loss. I was thinking head-to-head would be the tie breaker, but when you said Concordia would get the playoff berth you had me wondering.

[OzJohnnie]

Chickens, eggs, hatched and all that.

[57Johnnie]

Time to get back to beer instead of ifs at least for a day or two

[Mr.MIAC]

What else could happen at the end of the 2014 season?

1. Bethel could lose one game to either St. Thomas, Gustavus or St. John's, win all the rest and now there would be 3 teams tied at the top with Concordia.

2. Bethel could lose to Augsburg only, which would make BU and Concordia, provided they win out, the only one loss teams in the conference, but Bethel would represent the conference as an 8 and 2 team and Concordia is almost a shoe-in at 9 and 1.

3. Bethel could loose to St. Thomas and then St. Thomas could lose to Concordia or Gustavus and you have a similar instance where a two loss Bethel team takes the conference over 9 and 1 Concordia because of the head-to-head win.

4. St. Thomas has to win out and hope that St. John's or Gustavus can also beat Bethel to be undisputed conference champs, otherwise they share the title with another team.

5. St. John's has to win out and hope that St. Thomas beats Bethel, that Concordia beats St. Thomas, and Gustavus has to lose another game to one of these other 3 teams, otherwise they share the title with another team.

6. Gustavus has to win out and hope that St. Thomas can beat Bethel, Bethel wins over St. John's and St. Thomas beat Concordia to be undisputed conference champs, otherwise they share the title with another team. They have the most to "hope for" in my estimation, but that's what needs to happen for them to be undisputed conference champs, otherwise they share the title with other one loss teams.


Can there still be a tie at the top of the conference with teams with 2 losses?

So Bethel has to lose 2,  the other four teams have to lose one more. Hmmm, let's see.

If Bethel loses to St. Thomas and Gustavus they would have two losses.
If Bethel Beats St. John's, St. John's would have two losses.
If Concordia beats St. Thomas, St. Thomas has two losses.
If Gustavus beats Concordia, Concordia has two losses.
If St. Thomas beats Gustavus, Gustavus would have two losses.

So yes, it is possible for all 5 top teams to end the season with two losses to each other with only four weeks of play left. And that doesn't included the rest of the teams in the MIAC that could pull off an upset. Is it likely that there will be 5 two loss teams at the top of the MIAC at the end of the year? No, it is not.

So correct me if this is wrong. If UST wins out the rest of the season and SJU loses another conference game, UST is the lone MIAC champion.

[OzJohnnie]

We've still got four games to go. I recommend holding off on the scenario planning until we've played eight games. It's much easier and more relevant to figure out what can happen with just two games left.

[SagatagSam]

We've still got four games to go. I recommend holding off on the scenario planning until we've played eight games. It's much easier and more relevant to figure out what can happen with just two games left.

[GoldandBlueBU]

We've still got four games to go. I recommend holding off on the scenario planning until we've played eight games. It's much easier and more relevant to figure out what can happen with just two games left.

Oz 2016!

[Mr. Ypsi]

We've still got four games to go. I recommend holding off on the scenario planning until we've played eight games. It's much easier and more relevant to figure out what can happen with just two games left.

Oz 2016!

Oz has been as Ozzie for so long, maybe you better confirm he is still a U.S citizen before you crank up the campaign.

[RoyalsFan]

So correct me if this is wrong. If UST wins out the rest of the season and SJU loses another conference game, UST is the lone MIAC champion.

Ok, I will correct you. It is a possibility, but BU would also have to lose another game other than to St. Thomas. If BU's only conference loss is to St. Thomas, SJU loses another conference game and UST wins out then BU and UST would be co-champs, but UST would get the MIAC playoff berth based on head-to-head tie breaker.

[OzJohnnie]

We've still got four games to go. I recommend holding off on the scenario planning until we've played eight games. It's much easier and more relevant to figure out what can happen with just two games left.

Oz 2016!

Oz has been as Ozzie for so long, maybe you better confirm he is still a U.S citizen before you crank up the campaign.