FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[DuffMan]

Bethel did keep Sura in check, but 119 yards is still 119 yards.  Sura is rarely dropped for a loss; he's always moving forward, and the SJU o-line is generating a great push.  That really allows SJU to keep drives alive and grind huge chunks of time off of the clock.  I was impressed with the offensive play-calling and variety that Jimmy used this weekend.  Bethel is no doubt a tough team, but the SJU staff and players really put on a clinic.

[wildcat11]

Congrats Johnnies on the huge win and the pending MIAC title. D3 is better off with you guys back on the national stage.

[GoldandBlueBU]

Bethel did keep Sura in check, but 119 yards is still 119 yards.  Sura is rarely dropped for a loss; he's always moving forward, and the SJU o-line is generating a great push.  That really allows SJU to keep drives alive and grind huge chunks of time off of the clock.  I was impressed with the offensive play-calling and variety that Jimmy used this weekend.  Bethel is no doubt a tough team, but the SJU staff and players really put on a clinic.

Yeah, it seemed like they were almost always in 3rd and a managable distance, due to the constante positive yardage he was ablel to pickup on prior downs.  That kept Martin from having to drop back and wait for something to develop on 3rd and long.  They were very effective....reminded me of BU from a few years back w/ Flannery.  You knew a run was coming, but the line and running back were always able to grind out yardage.

[DuffMan]

That kept Martin from having to drop back and wait for something to develop on 3rd and long.

Which was good for SJU because Bethel's pass rush, for the most part, was relentless!

[art76]

Back after week six of this 2014 season I listed all the match-ups between one and no-loss teams in the MIAC. We are now down to one team, St. John's, after the win over Bethel this past weekend. This is Bethel's first conference loss of the season and provided both of these teams can win this upcoming last weekend, then they will share the MIAC Championship for the 2014 season. If both of these teams win this coming weekend, the Johnnies would win the Automatic Qualifier (AQ) for post-season play because of the head-to-head win. Bethel will most likely get into the play-offs as a Pool C team, but that is not guaranteed. The Royals also have a loss to D3 Football's #5 Wartburg making them a two loss team at the national level.

The other 3 teams that had either no or one loss back after week six were Concordia, St. Thomas and Gustavus. Concordia has completed their regular season play with a record of 8-2, having a bye this week. St. Thomas (7-2) will be hosting Gustavus (6-3) and playing to stay above the Cobbers in the MIAC ranking because of head-to-head results, even though they have the same record in the MIAC. If the Gusties can somehow beat the Tommies, that would reshuffle the conference rankings knocking the Tommies down to fifth, again because of head-to-head results. This could be the game of the week in the conference if only because of the in conference ranking implications.

Carleton heads up to Hamline for their final games of the season. Carleton may have circled this game on their calendar looking for their second win of the season just three or four weeks ago, but it ain't gonna happen. Hamline is fired up right now, having won their last two games coming from behind in the closing moments and wanting to finish this season at .500. And as was mentioned in the podcast this morning, if Macalester gets into the play-offs Hamline beat them earlier in the season.

St. John's travels down to Northfield to take on St. Olaf, who had their bye week last week, so they have had two weeks to get ready for their last game of the season. The Johnnies are in a must-win situation if they want to secure the AQ and extend their season this year. The Oles can make it interesting, but I don't think that this will be too close of a game. Expect another game in Collegeville on the 22nd.

Augsburg comes up to Arden Hills to take on the Royals. Bethel is also in a must-win situation. If the Royals were to drop this game and drop to two losses in the conference, that allows Concordia or St. Thomas to jump ahead of them at the national level, even though they beat both of these teams during the year. Augsburg is hungry though, having lost a close game to Hamline last week. Augsburg had high hopes for the year, are a good team and will not lay down in this final game, but Bethel should win.

So, of the teams still in contention for post-season play, who's cheering for who this week?

Gustavus is cheering for the Auggies and the Oles, and having to win their own game to play spoiler.

Concordia is really cheering from the sidelines exactly the same way as Gustavus so that their 8-2 record can stand out for the Pool C committee.

St. Thomas is also cheering for the Auggies and Oles, but of course wants to beat the Gusties.

Bethel is cheering for Gustavus and St. Olaf, as well as a win at home against Augsburg.

St. John's will be cheering for the Gusties and the Auggies, as well as taking care of business against Carleton.
So what could happen versus what is likely to happen?

Well, Bethel could become the AQ if St. John's were to lose their last game and Bethel were to win. Bethel would be 7-1 in conference and at least two other teams would have two losses in the conference. Is this likely? Not really. (Side note, in the podcast this morning Pat and Keith did not get this correct.)

If Bethel were to lose, they would not be on the board as a Pool C team with three total losses.

Here's what I see as the most likely situation:

1. St. John's wins and is the AQ.
2. Bethel wins and is considered for a Pool C bid.
3. St. Thomas wins and don't have a shot at Pool C.
4. Concordia is idle and doesn't have a shot at Pool C.

After Wednesday's Regional Rankings we'll have a better grasp of how good a chance the MIAC has at putting a second team into the dance.

[hazzben]

Bethel is a UST fan, not a GAC fan Saturday. UST will have a good shot to be ranked regionally. Which would help Bethel's Pool C resume

[art76]

Bethel is a UST fan, not a GAC fan Saturday. UST will have a good shot to be ranked regionally. Which would help Bethel's Pool C resume

True - true - wasn't thinking along those lines when putting the post together.

[Retired Old Rat]

Bethel did keep Sura in check, but 119 yards is still 119 yards.  Sura is rarely dropped for a loss; he's always moving forward, and the SJU o-line is generating a great push.  That really allows SJU to keep drives alive and grind huge chunks of time off of the clock.  I was impressed with the offensive play-calling and variety that Jimmy used this weekend.  Bethel is no doubt a tough team, but the SJU staff and players really put on a clinic.

Yeah, it seemed like they were almost always in 3rd and a managable distance, due to the constante positive yardage he was ablel to pickup on prior downs.  That kept Martin from having to drop back and wait for something to develop on 3rd and long.  They were very effective....reminded me of BU from a few years back w/ Flannery.  You knew a run was coming, but the line and running back were always able to grind out yardage.

Agreed on the Flannery comparison.  I had that thought myself 1/2 way through the 4th quarter.  Except Flannery had more outside speed.

[OzJohnnie]

What's the term for the Monkey Stomp^TM of a higher-ranked opponent? 

Monkey Stomp Up?

[DuffMan]

Monkey Stomp Up?

I like that!

[art76]

SOS numbers for this week in the MIAC

2 Bethel                            7-2    .778    .6761 (2)    .5214    0.625
20 Hamline                            4-5    .444    .5833 (20)    .5163    0.561
21 Augsburg                    3-6    .333    .5833 (21)    .5078    0.558
25 Concordia-Moorhead    7-2    .778    .5493 (53)    .5543    0.551
28 Carleton                            1-8    .111    .5694 (29)    .5101    0.550
57 St. John's                    8-1    .889    .5211 (86)    .5614    0.535
73 St. Olaf                            1-8    .111    .5211 (90)    .5330    0.525
95 Gustavus Adolphus    6-3    .667    .4861 (135)    .5632    0.512
131 St. Thomas                    7-2    .778    .4444 (184)    .5934    0.494

Bethel being ranked #2 in the nation really helps their chances for a Pool C bid, even with two losses. Even though St. Thomas is Regionally Ranked, their SOS slid down from last week and having the poorest SOS in the conference doesn't help their cause.

I am wondering how the non-NCAA game against Jamestown, ND is affecting Concordia's numbers. Does it make them better or worse or neutral? On the one hand statistically speaking, 7 and 2, or 77.77% is not as "good" as 8 and 2, or 80% compared to either Bethel or St. Thomas, assuming both of these squads win out. On the other hand, we see the results of playing just one "better" team versus playing two "not so good" teams affect the SOS numbers, comparing St. Thomas and Concordia.

Being a Pool C team, if Bethel makes it, do they stand a chance of getting a home game in the play-offs or are they on the road for the duration? Pat has alluded to the fact that things are going to be done differently this year by the NCAA and one has to wonder just what that is going to be. I guess we get to wait and see.

[DuffMan]

Art,
You're a real number junkie, aren't you!

[art76]

Art,
You're a real number junkie, aren't you!

Yes, and I crash big time after the season is over - withdrawal is ugly. 

[AO]

SOS numbers for this week in the MIAC

25 Concordia-Moorhead    7-2    .778    .5493 (53)    .5543    0.551


I am wondering how the non-NCAA game against Jamestown, ND is affecting Concordia's numbers. Does it make them better or worse or neutral? On the one hand statistically speaking, 7 and 2, or 77.77% is not as "good" as 8 and 2, or 80% compared to either Bethel or St. Thomas, assuming both of these squads win out. On the other hand, we see the results of playing just one "better" team versus playing two "not so good" teams affect the SOS numbers, comparing St. Thomas and Concordia.

The 7-2 vs 8-2 doesn't hurt them since there is no official criteria that puts the SOS and Winning percentage together like the RPI used in march madness.  It hurts the SOS as you lose a chance to schedule an SOS booster like my Northwestern squad.  Their SOS is still amazing but when you're on the bubble every win counts.

You have to feel for the Cobbs, on the road against Bethel, St. Thomas and St. John's and the one win you get against the conference champs is the game that helps you the least.  Too hard to get to the table this year in the West with so many teams with 2 losses.

[USTBench]

Any word on when the last time Manitou Field was mowed?