FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[OzJohnnie]

Is your daughter a mighty fighting Lady Royal, bob?

[OzJohnnie]

Boring, riddled with errors and cold.  But a win.  The Hawks sit two games clear at the top of the standings.  Home games throughout the playoffs are virtually assured with five games to go in the regular season.

[BDB]

Is your daughter a mighty fighting Lady Royal, bob?

As someone that has worked the penalty box many many times I can tell you that the gals smell a lot better than the guys.

[HansenRatings]

Seeing how this is by far the most active board, I figured this would be the best place to drop something like this off:
loghan.shinyapps.io/Season_Projections/

Using my preseason ratings (as a reminder, they don't yet include returning starter adjustments, and I will be the only d3 computer rating system that will make adjustments for returning starters), I ran 10,000 simulations of the d3 season and recorded their outcomes. The above link is a visualization of some of that data.

I'm currently working of a version of the simulation that will also project a team's probability of receiving their conference's Pool A bid, or a Pool  B or C bid.

If there's anything any of you all would be interested in seeing, just let me know, and I'll see if I can do it.

[AO]

I doubt Caruso had a clue that Green was interested in transferring to UST until the end of April. Green played in Southern Miss' spring game in April (https://www.instagram.com/p/BEmZWfpI-RE/?taken-by=gabegreen6) and then decided to leave. All of those articles on Perra were back in January. Maybe Pat or someone else can correct me, but I thought coaches were not allowed to contact players when they are on other teams.

If I had to guess, Green was likely recruited by UST when he played HS ball in Illinois. Once he made the decision to leave, he reached out to UST and let them know he was interested in possibly transferring. It looks like he narrowed his options down to Northern Iowa, Marian, and UST in early May. It was not announced that he would actually attend UST until May 15: http://www.wandtv.com/story/31977811/former-shg-quarterback-green-commits-to-st-thomas.

Nailed it. Green wasn't 2nd on the depth chart coming out of spring ball at Southern Miss and saw the writing on the wall. It all sounded like it came together quickly. Ended up weighing both Northern Iowa and UST.

Sounds like Perra and Fenske were neck and neck in Spring ball. Green will be in the mix too. Fenske has the advantage of being in the offense for a few years. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. One that is absolute is that UST will have a QB that can see over the O-line for the first time in a while. Both Gould and Tracy were shortchanged in height. All three of these guys are 6'1+

Perra doesn't look too concerned about his competition.

[OzJohnnie]

Seeing how this is by far the most active board, I figured this would be the best place to drop something like this off:
loghan.shinyapps.io/Season_Projections/

Using my preseason ratings (as a reminder, they don't yet include returning starter adjustments, and I will be the only d3 computer rating system that will make adjustments for returning starters), I ran 10,000 simulations of the d3 season and recorded their outcomes. The above link is a visualization of some of that data.

I'm currently working of a version of the simulation that will also project a team's probability of receiving their conference's Pool A bid, or a Pool  B or C bid.

If there's anything any of you all would be interested in seeing, just let me know, and I'll see if I can do it.

While cute and having, I must admit, a stunning color palette, the tool is fatally flawed. UST as about a 72% chance of running the board this season?  Ha.

[HansenRatings]

While cute and having, I must admit, a stunning color palette, the tool is fatally flawed. UST as about a 72% chance of running the board this season?  Ha.

Well, I did say...

Seeing how this is by far the most active board, I figured this would be the best place to drop something like this off:
loghan.shinyapps.io/Season_Projections/

Using my preseason ratings (as a reminder, they don't yet include returning starter adjustments, and I will be the only d3 computer rating system that will make adjustments for returning starters), I ran 10,000 simulations of the d3 season and recorded their outcomes. The above link is a visualization of some of that data.

I'm currently working of a version of the simulation that will also project a team's probability of receiving their conference's Pool A bid, or a Pool  B or C bid.

If there's anything any of you all would be interested in seeing, just let me know, and I'll see if I can do it.

They're graduating more than most, so those odds will go down come August (but you do remember the 2015 season don't you? UST did kinda dominate the MIAC and everyone else... sorry Oz)

[GoldandBlueBU]

While cute and having, I must admit, a stunning color palette, the tool is fatally flawed. UST as about a 72% chance of running the board this season?  Ha.

Well, I did say...

Seeing how this is by far the most active board, I figured this would be the best place to drop something like this off:
loghan.shinyapps.io/Season_Projections/

Using my preseason ratings (as a reminder, they don't yet include returning starter adjustments, and I will be the only d3 computer rating system that will make adjustments for returning starters), I ran 10,000 simulations of the d3 season and recorded their outcomes. The above link is a visualization of some of that data.

I'm currently working of a version of the simulation that will also project a team's probability of receiving their conference's Pool A bid, or a Pool  B or C bid.

If there's anything any of you all would be interested in seeing, just let me know, and I'll see if I can do it.

They're graduating more than most, so those odds will go down come August (but you do remember the 2015 season don't you? UST did kinda dominate the MIAC and everyone else... sorry Oz)

Yeah, but did you know that the Johnnies won it all in 2003?  Did you factor that in?   

[wm4]

Seeing how this is by far the most active board, I figured this would be the best place to drop something like this off:
loghan.shinyapps.io/Season_Projections/

Using my preseason ratings (as a reminder, they don't yet include returning starter adjustments, and I will be the only d3 computer rating system that will make adjustments for returning starters), I ran 10,000 simulations of the d3 season and recorded their outcomes. The above link is a visualization of some of that data.

I'm currently working of a version of the simulation that will also project a team's probability of receiving their conference's Pool A bid, or a Pool  B or C bid.

If there's anything any of you all would be interested in seeing, just /let me know, and I'll see if I can do it.

While cute and having, I must admit, a stunning color palette, the tool is fatally flawed. UST as about a 72% chance of running the board this season?  Ha.

Does the tool compute the odds Caruso takes a selfie in the "1" on 9/24? 

[Mr.MIAC]

Seeing how this is by far the most active board, I figured this would be the best place to drop something like this off:
loghan.shinyapps.io/Season_Projections/

Using my preseason ratings (as a reminder, they don't yet include returning starter adjustments, and I will be the only d3 computer rating system that will make adjustments for returning starters), I ran 10,000 simulations of the d3 season and recorded their outcomes. The above link is a visualization of some of that data.

I'm currently working of a version of the simulation that will also project a team's probability of receiving their conference's Pool A bid, or a Pool  B or C bid.

If there's anything any of you all would be interested in seeing, just /let me know, and I'll see if I can do it.

While cute and having, I must admit, a stunning color palette, the tool is fatally flawed. UST as about a 72% chance of running the board this season?  Ha.

Does the tool compute the odds Caruso takes a selfie in the "1" on 9/24? 

Oh the humanity...

[sjusection105]

So, this past weekend we were with some friends at their cabin. We were at a local tavern and as we were leaving, there was a a group of people,who looked to be in their early to mid-twenties. A couple were wearing St. Olaf Alpine Ski Team Tee shirts. As our two groups approached the door, I looked over and said "Um Ya Ya". Their faces lit up and they replied "Um Ya Ya". They seemed shocked that anyone would know this. I'm still trying to figure out why a school fight song would only be concerned with beating a single opponent? (Carleton College)

[Boys of Fall]

So, this past weekend we were with some friends at their cabin. We were at a local tavern and as we were leaving, there was a a group of people,who looked to be in their early to mid-twenties. A couple were wearing St. Olaf Alpine Ski Team Tee shirts. As our two groups approached the door, I looked over and said "Um Ya Ya". Their faces lit up and they replied "Um Ya Ya". They seemed shocked that anyone would know this. I'm still trying to figure out why a school fight song would only be concerned with beating a single opponent? (Carleton College)

Easier to achieve your goal.

[jim comet]

I am starting to think my son joined the dark side by choosing St. Thomas after reading the last few pages of posts .  The coaching staff at St. Johns never mentioned the "smokefest cookouts" which may have swayed my son as he is keenly aware that there is a Chipotle near the St. Thomas campus and none near St. Johns. One thing that may have actually effected his choice was coach Fasching asked him what position he wanted to play to which my son said defensive line. Coach Fasching then said he thought my son would do well on the offensive line as well. While my son would be happy to play wherever needed, he prefers defense and may have been concerned he would be switched to O-line at some point at St. Johns. That may happen at St. Thomas as well, who knows. He will first have to bust his buns just to get time on the practice squad this year. It will be a fun year seeing the different campuses the next four years. By the way, St. Thomas is not the only team to receive quality transfers this year as I believe St. Johns got a nice addition to their O-line.   

[Mr.MIAC]

I am starting to think my son joined the dark side by choosing St. Thomas after reading the last few pages of posts .  The coaching staff at St. Johns never mentioned the "smokefest cookouts" which may have swayed my son as he is keenly aware that there is a Chipotle near the St. Thomas campus and none near St. Johns. One thing that may have actually effected his choice was coach Fasching asked him what position he wanted to play to which my son said defensive line. Coach Fasching then said he thought my son would do well on the offensive line as well. While my son would be happy to play wherever needed, he prefers defense and may have been concerned he would be switched to O-line at some point at St. Johns. That may happen at St. Thomas as well, who knows. He will first have to bust his buns just to get time on the practice squad this year. It will be a fun year seeing the different campuses the next four years. By the way, St. Thomas is not the only team to receive quality transfers this year as I believe St. Johns got a nice addition to their O-line.

+K for calling out the Johnnie smokefest early on. Welcome to the board and to the dark side F.A.M.I.L.Y.

[DuffMan]

One thing that may have actually effected his choice was coach Fasching asked him what position he wanted to play to which my son said defensive line. Coach Fasching then said he thought my son would do well on the offensive line as well. While my son would be happy to play wherever needed, he prefers defense and may have been concerned he would be switched to O-line at some point at St. Johns.

Distinct possibility, especially if your son is a bigger fella.  Of our 5 o-linemen when I was a senior (2002), 2 came in as o-linemen, 2 came in as d-lineman, and one came in as a tight end.  I came in as a d-lineman, and due to some injuries, played a bit of o-line my sophomore year before moving back to the good side of the ball as a junior and senior.  Sure, I preferred defense, but even more than that, I wanted to be on the field.

Good luck to your son...but not too much.