FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[bleedpurple]

I'm going to give the edge this Saturday to UST, due to having more/better prep time.  UWO has had to focus on their next opponent the last two weeks and now has only one week to prepare for UST.  UST has had a relatively easier path to this game and has time to add some wrinkles to their game strategy.  At this level you always have to prepare for the upcoming game and I'm sure UST did plan for their games against Northwestern and Coe, but I suspect they also refined their game as well.  This is not to take anything away from UST, they earned the road they have by virtue of winning their conference, but there's a good possibility we'll see a new stunt, blitz, or offensive play(s) UWO won't have seen on film.

UWO didn't have to focus on Wash U any more than St. Thomas had to focus on Coe. Both fairly one-dimensional offenses focused around a key player.

That pretty much made makes my point.  Wash U was the first round opponent of UWO while Coe was the second round (last weekend) opponent of UST.  UST has had the liberty to work on some new wrinkles more than UWO has, not to mention probably in better health with their starters being able to rest more.  Again, I don't hold this against UST as they earned it by winning their conference, but we might see some new stuff from them should they need it against UWO.

If UST has an edge due to the opponents they have faced, I believe it will striclty be a matter of being able to rest starters and keep them from taking further pounding.  I probably have the least love for UW-O of any poster in the nation (well, except maybe Bobo), but it is impossible not to have respect for Coach Cerroni. He and his staff have been around long enough to "refine" personnel schemes/plays that never make it to film until the playoffs.  Maybe this is the week Coach Caruso dusts off the "back to the end zone" extra point flip.  We haven't seen that one in awhile.

[art76]

I was looking at the four remaining games coming up this weekend and noticed something a bit unusual about the teams playing - that is, all the higher seeds are undefeated and the lower seeded teams all have one loss. And, three of those losses have come at the hands of other teams still in the hunt. Oshkosh lost to Whitewater, John Carroll lost to Oshkosh and Mount Union lost to John Carroll. Wheaton's loss came to North Central, who they just defeated last week. Can we say parity at the top this year?

[cubs]

I'm going to give the edge this Saturday to UST, due to having more/better prep time.  UWO has had to focus on their next opponent the last two weeks and now has only one week to prepare for UST.  UST has had a relatively easier path to this game and has time to add some wrinkles to their game strategy.  At this level you always have to prepare for the upcoming game and I'm sure UST did plan for their games against Northwestern and Coe, but I suspect they also refined their game as well.  This is not to take anything away from UST, they earned the road they have by virtue of winning their conference, but there's a good possibility we'll see a new stunt, blitz, or offensive play(s) UWO won't have seen on film.

UWO didn't have to focus on Wash U any more than St. Thomas had to focus on Coe. Both fairly one-dimensional offenses focused around a key player.

That pretty much made makes my point.  Wash U was the first round opponent of UWO while Coe was the second round (last weekend) opponent of UST.  UST has had the liberty to work on some new wrinkles more than UWO has, not to mention probably in better health with their starters being able to rest more.  Again, I don't hold this against UST as they earned it by winning their conference, but we might see some new stuff from them should they need it against UWO.

If UST has an edge due to the opponents they have faced, I believe it will striclty be a matter of being able to rest starters and keep them from taking further pounding.  I probably have the least love for UW-O of any poster in the nation (well, except maybe Bobo), but it is impossible not to have respect for Coach Cerroni. He and his staff have been around long enough to "refine" personnel schemes/plays that never make it to film until the playoffs.  Maybe this is the week Coach Caruso dusts off the "back to the end zone" extra point flip.  We haven't seen that one in awhile.

Not that I'm trying to "crash" the MIAC board, but any reason in particular?

[MadRedFan]

I was in attendance at Oshkosh Saturday.  I think UWO will give the Tommies all they can handle.  They have size across the board, especially at RB.  The QB looked pretty solid.  Good size and quicks at WR.  The D can hit and has the size to match up with the Tommies.  They seemed to have a pretty "crafty" offense. All in all it should be a decent game.

This has been covered, but the Oshkosh rushing stats, it was like 4 runs = 200 yards rushing.  As I said to one of my pals, it's not like they couldn't have still gotten that much chipping away at SJU if they hadn't gotten the long runs, but the Johnnies did a decent job of holding them, but then ooooops, they'd break a long one.

[HansenRatings]

Advanced Stat Profiles for UST v. UWO (all numbers adjusted for opponent quality)

.	UST	UWO
Scoring Margin:	#1 (+50.57 ppg)	#2 (+47.54 ppg)
Scoring Offense:	#2 (55.04 ppg)	#5 (49.06 ppg)
Scoring Defense:	#4 (4.47 ppg)	#1 (1.52 ppg)
Net Efficiency:	#13|#8 (+2.83 ypp|+4.98 any/p)	#2|#2 (+4.27 ypp|+6.55 any/p)
Offensive Efficiency:	#19|#12 (6.58 ypp|7.57 any/p)	#2|#2 (7.83 ypp|8.86 any/p)
Defensive Efficiency:	#15|#13 (3.75 ypp|2.59 any/p)	#9|#8 (3.56 ypp|2.31 any/p)
Rushing Offense:	#31|#20 (5.11 ypp|6.15 any/p)	#1|#1 (7.40 ypp|8.68 any/p)
Rushing Defense:	#13|#11 (2.75 ypp|2.45 any/p)	#20|#18 (3.00 ypp|2.72 any/p)
Passing Offense:	#23|#13 (8.76 ypp|9.53 any/p)	#27|#19 (8.61 ypp|9.07 any/p)
Passing Defense:	#27|#12 (4.71 ypp|2.33 any/p)	#12|#6 (4.13 ypp|1.54 any/p)

[jamtod]

Advanced Stat Profiles for UST v. UWO (all numbers adjusted for opponent quality)

.	UST	UWO
Scoring Margin:	#1 (+50.57 ppg)	#2 (+47.54 ppg)
Scoring Offense:	#2 (55.04 ppg)	#5 (49.06 ppg)
Scoring Defense:	#4 (4.47 ppg)	#1 (1.52 ppg)
Net Efficiency:	#13|#8 (+2.83 ypp|+4.98 any/p)	#2|#2 (+4.27 ypp|+6.55 any/p)
Offensive Efficiency:	#19|#12 (6.58 ypp|7.57 any/p)	#2|#2 (7.83 ypp|8.86 any/p)
Defensive Efficiency:	#15|#13 (3.75 ypp|2.59 any/p)	#9|#8 (3.56 ypp|2.31 any/p)
Rushing Offense:	#31|#20 (5.11 ypp|6.15 any/p)	#1|#1 (7.40 ypp|8.68 any/p)
Rushing Defense:	#13|#11 (2.75 ypp|2.45 any/p)	#20|#18 (3.00 ypp|2.72 any/p)
Passing Offense:	#23|#13 (8.76 ypp|9.53 any/p)	#27|#19 (8.61 ypp|9.07 any/p)
Passing Defense:	#27|#12 (4.71 ypp|2.33 any/p)	#12|#6 (4.13 ypp|1.54 any/p)

I presume this is based on a full season? Despite much of this favoring UW-O, I think UST has made some significant steps in the last 5 weeks or so. We are playing as well as anyone now, though I was pretty skeptical early in the season about our ability to make a run.

[HansenRatings]

I presume this is based on a full season? Despite much of this favoring UW-O, I think UST has made some significant steps in the last 5 weeks or so. We are playing as well as anyone now, though I was pretty skeptical early in the season about our ability to make a run.

The first three metrics, scoring, weight recent games more heavily. The efficiency numbers are averages for the entire season.

EDIT: and these don't quantify the ability to maintain a drive, which is definitely aided by Coach Caruso's penchant for 4th down conversions/fakes.

[miac952]

I presume this is based on a full season? Despite much of this favoring UW-O, I think UST has made some significant steps in the last 5 weeks or so. We are playing as well as anyone now, though I was pretty skeptical early in the season about our ability to make a run.

The first three metrics, scoring, weight recent games more heavily. The efficiency numbers are averages for the entire season.

EDIT: and these don't quantify the ability to maintain a drive, which is definitely aided by Coach Caruso's penchant for 4th down conversions/fakes.

The story of the game is going to be whether UST can slow down the UWO rushing offense. It is #1 in the country by all measures. They had success against the Johnnies, and SJU had a pretty nice run defense.

Since the Concordia game where UST got pushed around a bit, they have given up 220 yards rushing total in 6 games. You have to factor in competition of course, but that is a nice number, especially last week against a respected running team like Coe.

[hazzben]

I presume this is based on a full season? Despite much of this favoring UW-O, I think UST has made some significant steps in the last 5 weeks or so. We are playing as well as anyone now, though I was pretty skeptical early in the season about our ability to make a run.

The first three metrics, scoring, weight recent games more heavily. The efficiency numbers are averages for the entire season.

EDIT: and these don't quantify the ability to maintain a drive, which is definitely aided by Coach Caruso's penchant for 4th down conversions/fakes.

The story of the game is going to be whether UST can slow down the UWO rushing offense. It is #1 in the country by all measures. They had success against the Johnnies, and SJU had a pretty nice run defense.

Agree this is a key. And just UST's ability to match UWO's physicality. I think UST has the edge in athleticism and UWO in muscle (NB: not saying UWO doesn't have athletes and that UST isn't physical).

If UWO controls the LOS, things break their way. UST defense is predicated on unpredictability and pressure. They have athletes on the edge and love to overwhelm an OLine. But if UWO's Oline is up to the task of blocking guys 1 on 1, suddenly the coverage guys are vulnerable.

The beauty of the game is both O's and D's are balanced and very good. Can't wait to watch it!

[miac952]

With the two WIAC schools in the final 8 and conference strength conversations occurring like they do every year at this time, I was curious at looking back at the last decade for the MIAC. 3 teams have been in the playoffs: UST, SJU, Bethel.

Playoff appearances:
UST - 7
SJU - 5
Bethel - 4

Quarterfinals:
UST - 6
Bethel - 2

Semis:
UST - 3 (2016 TBD)
Bethel - 2

Stagg:
UST - 2

A few things jump out:

-There were two years where we had MIAC vs. MIAC in the playoffs. While it guaranteed a next round, it also may have hampered good teams from moving on.

-When Bethel makes the playoffs they get a lot of bang for their buck.

- The MIAC had two reps in six of the years.

-Getting to the quarters in 6 out of 7 appearances for UST is impressive, especially given the regional strength of the west and how foreign a concept the playoffs were to UST to decade prior.

- Mount Union has been a major hurdle (surprise) for the conference in the playoffs. 0-4 in that 10 year time window, and shutting down some good runs.

[ron doney]

With the two WIAC schools in the final 8 and conference strength conversations occurring like they do every year at this time, I was curious at looking back at the last decade for the MIAC. 3 teams have been in the playoffs: UST, SJU, Bethel.

Playoff appearances:
UST - 7
SJU - 5
Bethel - 4

Quarterfinals:
UST - 6
Bethel - 2

Semis:
UST - 3 (2016 TBD)
Bethel - 1

Stagg:
UST - 2

A few things jump out:

-There were two years where we had MIAC vs. MIAC in the playoffs. While it guaranteed a next round, it also may have hampered good teams from moving on.

-When Bethel makes the playoffs they get a lot of bang for their buck.

- The MIAC had two reps in six of the years.

-Getting to the quarters in 6 out of 7 appearances for UST is impressive, especially given the regional strength of the west and how foreign a concept the playoffs were to UST to decade prior.

- Mount Union has been a major hurdle (surprise) for the conference in the playoffs. 0-4 in that 10 year time window, and shutting down some good runs.

Has it been a decade since SJU was relevant? Wow. 

[AO]

With the two WIAC schools in the final 8 and conference strength conversations occurring like they do every year at this time, I was curious at looking back at the last decade for the MIAC. 3 teams have been in the playoffs: UST, SJU, Bethel.

Playoff appearances:
UST - 7
SJU - 5
Bethel - 4

Quarterfinals:
UST - 6
Bethel - 2

Semis:
UST - 3 (2016 TBD)
Bethel - 1

Stagg:
UST - 2

A few things jump out:

-There were two years where we had MIAC vs. MIAC in the playoffs. While it guaranteed a next round, it also may have hampered good teams from moving on.

-When Bethel makes the playoffs they get a lot of bang for their buck.

- The MIAC had two reps in six of the years.

-Getting to the quarters in 6 out of 7 appearances for UST is impressive, especially given the regional strength of the west and how foreign a concept the playoffs were to UST to decade prior.

- Mount Union has been a major hurdle (surprise) for the conference in the playoffs. 0-4 in that 10 year time window, and shutting down some good runs.

Has it been a decade since SJU was relevant? Wow.

#9 in the country isn't relevant?

[GoldandBlueBU]

The story of the game is going to be whether UST can slow down the UWO rushing offense. It is #1 in the country by all measures. They had success against the Johnnies, and SJU had a pretty nice run defense.

Since the Concordia game where UST got pushed around a bit, they have given up 220 yards rushing total in 6 games. You have to factor in competition of course, but that is a nice number, especially last week against a respected running team like Coe.

They definitely seem to be clicking at the right time.  I only watched 2 regular season games - vs. SJU - where I thought they looked very good, overall - and vs. BU - where I thought they wouldn't make it past the 2nd round of the playoffs if that was truly who they were, but they're rolling now.

I'm excited to see how they do when the talent margin isn't so widely favorable to them as it has been in rounds 1 and 2. 

[USTBench]

The story of the game is going to be whether UST can slow down the UWO rushing offense. It is #1 in the country by all measures. They had success against the Johnnies, and SJU had a pretty nice run defense.

Since the Concordia game where UST got pushed around a bit, they have given up 220 yards rushing total in 6 games. You have to factor in competition of course, but that is a nice number, especially last week against a respected running team like Coe.

They definitely seem to be clicking at the right time.  I only watched 2 regular season games - vs. SJU - where I thought they looked very good, overall - and vs. BU - where I thought they wouldn't make it past the 2nd round of the playoffs if that was truly who they were, but they're rolling now.

I'm excited to see how they do when the talent margin isn't so widely favorable to them as it has been in rounds 1 and 2.

I was at the Concordia game, and, as I've said here before, it was about as physical of a football game as I've ever seen and I think they kept pace with the Cobbers in that department. What got them in trouble was over-committing on a team that relies a lot on misdirection. Horan was able to exploit that on a number of occasions where a few times, when UST wasn't assignment sharp and got sucked in they'd leave massive gaps in their run D and the Cobbers would just scamper up the middle of the field.

I don't think UWO is going to push UST around, but if the Tommies aren't disciplined and don't maintain gap integrity, the Titans could rattle off some big gains.

[hazzben]

Bethel actually made the semis 2 times.