FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[badgerwarhawk]

I don't think SJU can qualify as a rival anymore. Sad. Used to be such a storied program. I would say it's probably UWO or someone with more national prestige.

Your "rival" is a program you've played five times since 1893 and only twice in the past five years rather than one you've played every year forever?     

[miac952]

I know many people like the mega contests all the time but I'm not one of them.  My goals as a fan for a generic season are:

1. Conference championship
2. Post-season run
3. National championship

There are a few things that have always been true:

- To get to the post-season from the MIAC you need just one loss.  As the second strongest conference, a one loss team always gets in. (Did BU miss once?)
- To get ready for the conference championships you need a couple games to work out the new starters. Easy games are better so they don't threaten your post-season chances.

I wish that it weren't the case, so that the top teams could schedule some bigger games early on without fear of it hurting their post-season chances, but that is basically my take as well.  (I don't believe that BU ever missed a spot in the playoffs with one loss?)

Generally SJU and UST will own the top two spots in the MIAC.  BU and Concordia will make their way into the top pair occasionally, but for the most part, they can plan on either having the auto bid, or, knowing that they can take that one loss to whoever the champ will be in a given year, and be just about guaranteed a bid at 9-1.  8-2 gets in sometimes from the MIAC, but it's not the (almost) sure thing that 9-1 is.

So, if I'm Gary or Glenn, that would be my strategy too.  Make sure you don't drop a non-conference game, and you will be in good position by the end of the year if you can take care of business with the rest of the MIAC.

I'm sure that SJU would have hoped to have CSS give them more of a test, and I vaguely remember reading an article a couple yeaers back that Ramler was wanting to get SJU on the schedule so that their team would be better prepared to actually win a playoff game at some point.

This is a fair assessment but lets look at last years Stagg Bowl. Both tested themselves with significant early season tests in the non conference slate. Neither were damaged from it. If not a top dog, at least someone who will meet the muster physically and challenge you a bit. The equivalent of Saturday's game against Duluth Nursing at the D1 level might be an Alabama playing a Division II team, that is how big the variance is. The multiple MIAC / UMAC data points beyond just that game suggest it as well.

There is no easy fix to this. DIII football has significant drop offs at certain levels, unlike maybe any level of any other NCAA sport. You have 3-4 tiers in any given year, and when you drop to the next tier their is a 3-4 touchdown gap. Tier 1 generally has about 8-10 teams. It has grown in the last couple years and become a little more competitive. Tier 2 may go a little beyond the Top 25. Tier 3 runs from 30-60 or so (your middle of the pack teams in solid conferences). Beyond 60 is a significant drop off. i am generalizing, but for the most part that plays out.

[miac952]

I don't think SJU can qualify as a rival anymore. Sad. Used to be such a storied program. I would say it's probably UWO or someone with more national prestige.

Your "rival" is a program you've played five times since 1893 and only twice in the past five years rather than one you've played every year forever?   

You might be missing the sarcasm or dry wit of Bench.

[AO]

MIAC PICK-EMS WEEK 1 STANDINGS


WEEK 2 Sep. 9

Non-Conference: 2pts

Bethel (+6.5) @ Carthage
Carleton (+12.5) @ Lake Forest
#15 UW-Whitewater @ Concordia-Moorhead (+13.5)
Concordia (Wis.) (+7.5) @ Augsburg
Presentation (+40.5) @ #8 St. John's
#4 St. Thomas @ UW-Stout (+25.5)
St. Olaf (+10.5) @ Luther
Gustavus (+13.5) @ UW-River Falls
Hamline @ Macalester (+14.5)  for "The Old Paint Bucket"

National: 1pt
NY Maritime (+6.5) at MA Maritime "The Chowder Bowl"

[USTBench]

I don't think SJU can qualify as a rival anymore. Sad. Used to be such a storied program. I would say it's probably UWO or someone with more national prestige.

Your "rival" is a program you've played five times since 1893 and only twice in the past five years rather than one you've played every year forever?   

You might be missing the sarcasm or dry wit of Bench.

Top notch research though! Who says work-place productivity is on the decline?

[SJUrube]

I don't think SJU can qualify as a rival anymore. Sad. Used to be such a storied program. I would say it's probably UWO or someone with more national prestige.

Your "rival" is a program you've played five times since 1893 and only twice in the past five years rather than one you've played every year forever?   

You might be missing the sarcasm or dry wit of Bench.

[Pat Coleman]

Do you think we like paying for two home games on our season ticket package to see Lake Superior Nursing College and The Convent on the Prairie come to Clemens Stadium?

Good question. I feel like there's an incentive to play home games because the gate is significant at SJU where it isn't at 98% of Division III schools.

I also know that there was a reluctance to go on a long bus trip when John was in charge and getting up in years, and once that was made clear to me, I totally was on board. I was hoping that would change. Hopefully there's a UWO/SJU series in the offing for 2018/19.

I don't have the facts here, but I suspect there is a financial incentive for the non-conference teams to come to SJU and play a preseason game. It just might be that they make more than they would playing a preseason game at home?

Teams who come to SJU and don't get a return game definitely get paid for their trouble (and CSS did this two years in a row, of course). Not unique to SJU, either.

[USTBench]

MIAC PICK-EMS WEEK 1 STANDINGS


Looks like I beat the algorithm that is Hansen Ratings! Even knew SJU was going to classily RUN UP THE SCORE on the Sisters of Saint Scholastica.

[Oleblue]

MIAC PICK-EMS WEEK 1 STANDINGS


WEEK 2 Sep. 9

Non-Conference: 2pts

Bethel (+6.5) @ Carthage
Carleton (+12.5) @ Lake Forest
#15 UW-Whitewater @ Concordia-Moorhead (+13.5)
Concordia (Wis.) (+7.5) @ Augsburg
Presentation (+40.5) @ #8 St. John's
#4 St. Thomas @ UW-Stout (+25.5)
St. Olaf (+10.5) @ Luther
Gustavus (+13.5) @ UW-River Falls
Hamline @ Macalester (+14.5)  for "The Old Paint Bucket"

National: 1pt
NY Maritime (+6.5) at MA Maritime "The Chowder Bowl"

I feel like the name Ole Blue is a middle of the road type name for a middle of the road type pick em picker.

[AO]

Tommie$ did schedule a UMAC team in football / futbol and beat the crap out of them!

https://twitter.com/TommieAthletics/status/905261819366920192

When did the Tommies become one of the best soccer programs in the nation?  They're almost as highly ranked as Northwestern volleyball.

[miac952]

Tommie$ did schedule a UMAC team in football / futbol and beat the crap out of them!

https://twitter.com/TommieAthletics/status/905261819366920192

When did the Tommies become one of the best soccer programs in the nation?  They're almost as highly ranked as Northwestern volleyball.

I want to tread lightly on not pivoting this football board to soccer, but this has surprised me as well. UST mens soccer was always the dead weight for all of UST mens athletics. They made it to the final four last year, and I didn't really catch where they became so good along the way. I always that MAC was the big dog of MIAC soccer with the euro imports. Maybe now that Macalaster isnt top dog, they will switch to the Midwest Conference in soccer too 

[Gregory Sager]

Perhaps the MIAC coaches should make an agreement to NOT schedule any further games with the UMAC.

SJU-98-     St. Scholastica-0
GAC-38     Westminster- 0
Hamline-51  Crown 0
Augsburg-42 Northwestern 7

MIAC-229- UMAC 7 who gains anything of value out of games like these?

Could any of these UMAC teams beat the MSHSL state champ? I sure hope they could however it's apparent that the UMAC is fairly horrible at football.

Two other UMAC non-conference scores worth noting from last weekend:

Millikin 76, Greenville 3
Cornell 62, Iowa Wesleyan 25

Millikin was picked to finish seventh in the nine-team CCIW.

Cornell was picked to finish fourth in the six-team South Division of the Midwest Conference.

[sfury]

Tommie$ did schedule a UMAC team in football / futbol and beat the crap out of them!

https://twitter.com/TommieAthletics/status/905261819366920192

When did the Tommies become one of the best soccer programs in the nation?  They're almost as highly ranked as Northwestern volleyball.

I want to tread lightly on not pivoting this football board to soccer, but this has surprised me as well. UST mens soccer was always the dead weight for all of UST mens athletics. They made it to the final four last year, and I didn't really catch where they became so good along the way. I always that MAC was the big dog of MIAC soccer with the euro imports. Maybe now that Macalaster isnt top dog, they will switch to the Midwest Conference in soccer too 

I thought soccer talk held absolutely zero interest for me. Then I found something worse: St. Thomas soccer talk.

[OzJohnnie]

@AO

Where do your spreads come from, AO?  They're pretty good.  They make the pick'em a real challenge.

[AO]

@AO

Where do your spreads come from, AO?  They're pretty good.  They make the pick'em a real challenge.

I'm always crunching the numbers in my head.

That and making simple adjustments to the Massey prediction.