FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[USTBench]

I don't think a one loss SJU team is left out of playoffs. UST with 2 losses would be on the bubble, but would probably get in.

This is a tricky one. With the emergence of UWP, Stout and UW Lacrosse, and UWW regressing to the mean, the WIAC is most likely experiencing the parity they had back in the early 2000s. I don't see UWO getting out of conference play unscathed. So, like the WIAC last year, is it possible the MIAC gets three teams into the NCAAs? Or is it universally agreed, that should a conference get a third it should be the WIAC? Also, if George Fox loses a tight one to Linfield, or even wins and goes 10-0 or 9-1, does the NWC get two? I would think that would negate the possibility of the WIAC or MIAC getting 3 in, or the MIAC even getting 2 in maybe.

I think UST has to win out. And with the Cobbers playing as well as they have been, and Bethel and GAC still on the horizon, that's no small task.

If UST loses to the Cobbers and SJU beats the Cobbers, if I recall correctly, the Cobbers get the automatic bid. If the WIAC gets a pool C, and the NWC gets a pool C, would the MIAC get one? Tough to say. But here's my question: Does an 8-2 UST with an in-region non-conference win, in-region non-conference loss to a quality opponent, and a head-to-head win over SJU, get in over a 9-1 SJU with an in-region non-conference win, and a non-conference win in a game that technically shouldn't be considered because it's a NAIA team, and a loss to UST?

I think if I'm SJU, I secretly hope UST beats the Cobbers, and that I win out, and that Stout has a great year. I think that's SJU's slam dunk Pool C bid. 

[wm4]

This is definitely a different type of year, which is welcomed.  Every game feels important, and there's also a lot of checking of scores in and around other conferences.

I think the WIAC will generally beat each other up, but I see UWO emerging undefeated.  I think the WIAC gets UWP as the second team, but no third.

We'll know exactly where things stand in the MIAC after Saturday, but I feel confident the MIAC gets two teams in.  I think UST takes care of business Saturday, but still too early to give a read on CM/SJU in November.

[faunch]

Thank you Tom Petty (and Phoebe Cates)...two of my favorite movie soundtracks!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TDdKeb_94Q

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_aoEIA38kTQ&list=PLzkd_lmBL6gHFhOInE5yc0tWb6IHhuq9y

[57Johnnie]

Homecoming for the JOHNNIES

I have a Special Olympics event on Saturday so I need a volunteer to monitor the jocularity and Johnfoolery on the board. 

[miac952]

We have seen 2 loss teams get in over 1 loss teams the last couple years, especially with a strength of schedule differential. Add in a H2H win for the 2 loss team and I would say it becomes even more realistic. The Scholastica and Presentation non conference schedule do not look good from a judgmental view, especially when all the West Region coaches under the sun know Oshkosh was out there searching for a game on the same date and would have played all comers.

If you are an SJU fan I think you are rooting for a VERY close win by the Cobbers. That way you know going into the game with the Cobbers if you win by X margin of victory you get the playoff spot.

If UST wins the door is more or less closed on the auto for SJU and then it comes down to selection time. You would really like to think the SJU / Concordia winner gets in, but who knows at that point.

I am intrigued to see how Stout does against Whitewater this weekend. They lost a nailbiter last weekend to Platteville. And with Oshkosh still on the schedule this is must win territory for them to have a shot of getting in. It also will be interesting to see if LaCrosse is for real in the coming weeks.

[miac952]

Cobbers QB Herzog out for St. Thomas, Kragnes set to start

The new starter is 6'5 , 230. Jeez. Thats a big boy to be running the triple option.

[Pat Coleman]

There are only five at-large bids this year, where there had been six in recent years. I think it's a stretch to think any conference will get 40% of them, but we'll see as the playoffs get closer.

[faunch]

There are only five at-large bids this year, where there had been six in recent years. I think it's a stretch to think any conference will get 40% of them, but we'll see as the playoffs get closer.

Might be time to cull the herd.

[AO]

If UST loses to the Cobbers and SJU beats the Cobbers, if I recall correctly, the Cobbers get the automatic bid.

A 3 way tie at 7-1 would go down to point differential between the tied teams.

We have seen 2 loss teams get in over 1 loss teams the last couple years, especially with a strength of schedule differential. Add in a H2H win for the 2 loss team and I would say it becomes even more realistic. The Scholastica and Presentation non conference schedule do not look good from a judgmental view, especially when all the West Region coaches under the sun know Oshkosh was out there searching for a game on the same date and would have played all comers.

Games against non-D3 teams will only be considered if they are a common opponent of another team that is up for selection.  If Lawrence somehow was up for a Pool C they could use the Presentation game to compare results.  It also doesn't matter what the West Region coaches think, it's the national committee making the decisions.   Scholastica is looking like they will end with a solid record and help the Johnnies SOS.  If I had to predict I'd say the Johnnies SOS will be higher than St. Thomas' or Concordia's thanks to Scholastica.

There are only five at-large bids this year, where there had been six in recent years. I think it's a stretch to think any conference will get 40% of them, but we'll see as the playoffs get closer.

The MIAC won't have much of a SOS advantage either.  9-8 non-conference record with a bunch of conference bottom feeders in the list. 

[jamtod]

What can anyone tell me about Concordia's defense? So much of the talk is about their offense and triple option attack, etc.

[Mr.MIAC]

That's one heck of a sight.  Shame about the purple border. 

Here you go, Oz:  Johnnie/Tommie Print

So I was thinking about ordering one of these from the UST bookstore. However, shipping on the $199 item costs $108. SJU's store is charging $20 for shipping. What's with the disparity? I assume SJU is only selling the ones with red borders.

[USTBench]

What can anyone tell me about Concordia's defense? So much of the talk is about their offense and triple option attack, etc.

Last year they had some absolute dudes on the DL that really freed up their LBs to make plays. Don't know much about them this year, but they were able to pretty much stymie UST's run game in 2016, even though UST was committed to run to a detrimental point. Trettel ran 20 times for 60 yards. Parks 8 times for 16 yards.

I think if Perra can get out of the pocket and Molina/Parks/Trettel/Roberts/whoever can chip a LB or DE coming hot off the edge, Perra is enough of a threat to run that it could create some opportunities downfield.

Caruso will still commit to the run, equal parts between the tackles, equal parts outside of the tackles, and try to be as balanced as he can. But what was interesting last week was the distribution. Trettel was at 12 carries to Roberts 15 , which is nearly 50/50, for the two-deep. Where it was a 2-1 margin Roberts carrying the ball earlier in the year, I think Parks is now taking those extra carries Roberts would normally get, which I think will benefit all parties come November. To put pads on loads like Roberts and Trettel 30 times a game, and then have a back with Parks' speed spell them, will be a big boon to the UST offense. Pallini also had 8 catches on Saturday, so, I think Perra has found his safety blanket.

Coming up on week 6 the offensive line may finally have found their stride. They didn't give up any sacks and really only had one or two plays that went for negative yardage.

Penalties (11 for 93 last week, ugggggh) and punt return is still what concerns me the most. Pallini lost another fumble last week. I think at this point I stick with Loffler, but I'd still be having open tryouts for that spot. 

[MIAC23]

What can anyone tell me about Concordia's defense? So much of the talk is about their offense and triple option attack, etc.

Cobber defense has been pretty stout against the run. Running a 3-4 scheme, the d-line does do a pretty good job of keeping the LB's free and the safeties have done a decent job coming up making plays. There have been some big plays given up in the passing game. Gustavus got a couple big ones, albeit one of those was on a double reverse, flea flicker. Bethel's TD was on a deep post that beat both safeties.

Like bench said, Cobbs did a great job stifling UST's run game last year, and that is what kept them in the game. If they can do that again, they will have a chance to win at the end.

[jamtod]

What can anyone tell me about Concordia's defense? So much of the talk is about their offense and triple option attack, etc.

Last year they had some absolute dudes on the DL that really freed up their LBs to make plays. Don't know much about them this year, but they were able to pretty much stymie UST's run game in 2016, even though UST was committed to run to a detrimental point. Trettel ran 20 times for 60 yards. Parks 8 times for 16 yards.

I think if Perra can get out of the pocket and Molina/Parks/Trettel/Roberts/whoever can chip a LB or DE coming hot off the edge, Perra is enough of a threat to run that it could create some opportunities downfield.

Caruso will still commit to the run, equal parts between the tackles, equal parts outside of the tackles, and try to be as balanced as he can. But what was interesting last week was the distribution. Trettel was at 12 carries to Roberts 15 , which is nearly 50/50, for the two-deep. Where it was a 2-1 margin Roberts carrying the ball earlier in the year, I think Parks is now taking those extra carries Roberts would normally get, which I think will benefit all parties come November. To put pads on loads like Roberts and Trettel 30 times a game, and then have a back with Parks' speed spell them, will be a big boon to the UST offense. Pallini also had 8 catches on Saturday, so, I think Perra has found his safety blanket.

Coming up on week 6 the offensive line may finally have found their stride. They didn't give up any sacks and really only had one or two plays that went for negative yardage.

Penalties (11 for 93 last week, ugggggh) and punt return is still what concerns me the most. Pallini lost another fumble last week. I think at this point I stick with Loffler, but I'd still be having open tryouts for that spot.

Nice summary. Thanks Bench.
Will you be at the game on Saturday? I'll be there with the jamlets, hitting up the bouncy house and parade candy before the game.

[HansenRatings]

What can anyone tell me about Concordia's defense? So much of the talk is about their offense and triple option attack, etc.

They're good at everything, not great at anything.

Using a new method for adjusting for opponents I've been toying with
Concordia-Moorhead Defense (national rank):
Total Defense: 13
Point per Drive: 10
Rush Defense: 25
Rush YPP: 29
Rush 1st Dns/Play: 14
Pass Defense: 20
Pass YPP: 20
Pass 1st Dns/Play: 29

As a point of comparison, St. John's D is third in the country using this metric, and UST did well enough against them. That game was also USTs best offensive game, and SJUs worst defensive game, though.