FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[GoldandBlueBU]

Now to add more fuel to the fire the game against NAIA Presentation doesn't exist in the eyes of the committee. If SJU gets past Concordis on Nov. 11, they will have an 8-1 record in the eyes of the committee. Does an 8-1 SJU team with a weak strength of schedule get in over a second place WIAC or CCIW team,no matter if they are also 8-1? I'm beginning to have some doubts. 2017 could be the year that SJU misses the play-offs and their weak non-conference schedule seals their fate.

I'll gladly admit if I'm wrong but I see no way a 1 loss SJU doesn't get in - particularly when the 1 loss was a 3 point loss to a top 5 ranked team. The CSS loss hurts but playoff bids aren't awarded strictly by mathematical formula.

If the final bid comes down to SJU and the runner up in the WIAC, the worst case scenario for SJU would be Whitewater winning out as they would be a "name brand" team for the committee. However, their best case record is 7-3, with a loss to a team the 8-1 (9-1) Johnnies would have beaten. And even though UWW has a loss on their resume against a top 5 team, it was a 17 point loss.

Lots can happen over the final two weeks so I won't get worried until the D3 crew releases their projections and has SJU on the outside looking in.

That's what I come back to as well...when was the last time that a 1 loss non auto bid MIAC team didn't get into the playoffs?

[wm4]

As long as SJU is ahead of UWW in the final West's regional rankings, I think there as close to a lock into the playoffs as you can get.  This is particularly true now that there will be no 1 loss WIAC team not named UWO.  I think SJU would be the first team considered in the West for Pool C.  They might not get selected the first time around (might even be the last Pool C selected), but I'd bet the farm 9-1 SJU gets in.

All of the above assumes they win out in the regular season and no other form of chaos emerges in the West. 

[miac952]

Now to add more fuel to the fire the game against NAIA Presentation doesn't exist in the eyes of the committee. If SJU gets past Concordis on Nov. 11, they will have an 8-1 record in the eyes of the committee. Does an 8-1 SJU team with a weak strength of schedule get in over a second place WIAC or CCIW team,no matter if they are also 8-1? I'm beginning to have some doubts. 2017 could be the year that SJU misses the play-offs and their weak non-conference schedule seals their fate.

I'll gladly admit if I'm wrong but I see no way a 1 loss SJU doesn't get in - particularly when the 1 loss was a 3 point loss to a top 5 ranked team. The CSS loss hurts but playoff bids aren't awarded strictly by mathematical formula.

If the final bid comes down to SJU and the runner up in the WIAC, the worst case scenario for SJU would be Whitewater winning out as they would be a "name brand" team for the committee. However, their best case record is 7-3, with a loss to a team the 8-1 (9-1) Johnnies would have beaten. And even though UWW has a loss on their resume against a top 5 team, it was a 17 point loss.

Lots can happen over the final two weeks so I won't get worried until the D3 crew releases their projections and has SJU on the outside looking in.

I think it would take quite a bit more upheaval than the vacuum cleaner school beating Duluth Nursing for UMAC title for a 1 loss SJU to not make the playoffs. The only scenario I see them not making it is if a couple of assumed autobids get upset these last two weeks for conference titles that would then fall into the pool c mix against SJU. And, I don't even know if that is possible.

[miac952]

It will be interesting to see these next few weeks play out with some bracket projections. Not that all the west teams will stay together. As a matter fact it might be more unlikely than likely, as we have seen the pod strategy develop the last few years, but here is one spin on things. A lot depends how UST, Linfield, Wartburg, and SJU are ranked this week as well. Also, does a two loss WIAC or a George Fox have a shot at a pool c??

SCIAC champ @ Linfield
Eureka @ UST

Lakeland @ UWO
SJU @ Wartburg

[faunch]

How much of a mess would a Stout win over Oshkosh in the last game of the season cause?

http://www.wiacsports.com/standings.aspx?standings=94

[wm4]

How much of a mess would a Stout win over Oshkosh in the last game of the season cause?

http://www.wiacsports.com/standings.aspx?standings=94

That would cause chaos as Stout would vault up to say #3 or #4 in the West (in my view), with crazy strong wins over highly ranked RRO's.  SJU would be behind Stout I think, and they'd be on the outside looking in.

[miac952]

How much of a mess would a Stout win over Oshkosh in the last game of the season cause?

http://www.wiacsports.com/standings.aspx?standings=94

That was one of the crazy scenario's I could think of that could hurt SJU. Stout winning would cause upheaval. I think they would move to the top of the heap of Pool C'ers, even with two losses. They would have wins against UST and UWO. They also need to be UWL this week though.

[AO]

MIAC PICK-EMS
WEEK 9 STANDINGS


WEEK 10 Oct. 28

Rivalry: 4pts
St. Olaf (+24.5) @ #19 Concordia "The Troll"

Conference: 3pts
#6 St. John's @ Hamline (+40.5)
Augsburg (+21.5) @ Bethel
Gustavus (+30.5) @ #4 St. Thomas

National: 1pt
#25 Salisbury (+14.5) @ #13 Wesley

[jamtod]

MIAC PICK-EMS
WEEK 9 STANDINGS


WEEK 10 Oct. 28

Rivalry: 4pts
St. Olaf (+24.5) @ #19 Concordia "The Troll"

Conference: 3pts
#6 St. John's @ Hamline (+40.5)
Augsburg (+21.5) @ Bethel
Gustavus (+30.5) @ #4 St. Thomas

National: 1pt
#25 Salisbury (+14.5) @ #13 Wesley

I'm tempted to try to finish these last 2 weeks out with more 7-point performances rather than making an attempt to climb the standings.

[AO]

Fellas, I know I've explained this before.  1 loss to Eureka doesn't hurt the Johnnies SoS much.  St. Scholastica is still a great positive to the Johnnies SoS.  If the Johnnies played Eau Claire (or any other solid team with a bad record in a good conference) instead of Scholastica they'd be more nervous about the bid.  Same thing with Presentation.  If you can't schedule a team that will finish above .500 you would prefer to schedule no one or a game that doesn't count for SoS.  There are no bonus points awarded for beating a conference champ.

[HansenRatings]

Fellas, I know I've explained this before.  1 loss to Eureka doesn't hurt the Johnnies SoS much.  St. Scholastica is still a great positive to the Johnnies SoS.  If the Johnnies played Eau Claire (or any other solid team with a bad record in a good conference) instead of Scholastica they'd be more nervous about the bid.  Same thing with Presentation.  If you can't schedule a team that will finish above .500 you would prefer to schedule no one or a game that doesn't count for SoS.  There are no bonus points awarded for beating a conference champ.

^^^
Speaking truth

Also, in regards to the Presentation game, it's definitely not "meaningless" to the committee. Those non-DIII games are only meaningless if they're wins, if it's a loss, that definitely hurts a team's chances (think of when UWO lost to two Top 25 NAIA teams and FCS South Dakota State, but finished 6-1 vs DIII).

[AO]

Fellas, I know I've explained this before.  1 loss to Eureka doesn't hurt the Johnnies SoS much.  St. Scholastica is still a great positive to the Johnnies SoS.  If the Johnnies played Eau Claire (or any other solid team with a bad record in a good conference) instead of Scholastica they'd be more nervous about the bid.  Same thing with Presentation.  If you can't schedule a team that will finish above .500 you would prefer to schedule no one or a game that doesn't count for SoS.  There are no bonus points awarded for beating a conference champ.

^^^
Speaking truth

Also, in regards to the Presentation game, it's definitely not "meaningless" to the committee. Those non-DIII games are only meaningless if they're wins, if it's a loss, that definitely hurts a team's chances (think of when UWO lost to two Top 25 NAIA teams and FCS South Dakota State, but finished 6-1 vs DIII).

I'm looking through the 2014 pool C discussion and I don't see convincing evidence that the out of division losses hurt them.  Their SoS was comparatively low and Platteville likely dropped out of the regional rankings at the end leaving them without a regionally ranked win.  You could say that if you don't play any Division 3 opponents you're not going to be competitive for a bid as you need a SoS boosting game (like Scholastica), not merely the lack of a bad SoS game.

I also believe we've heard from a committee chair in the past that 8-1=9-1.

[BDB]

Fellas, I know I've explained this before.

LOL 

[wally_wabash]

Fellas, I know I've explained this before.  1 loss to Eureka doesn't hurt the Johnnies SoS much.  St. Scholastica is still a great positive to the Johnnies SoS.  If the Johnnies played Eau Claire (or any other solid team with a bad record in a good conference) instead of Scholastica they'd be more nervous about the bid.  Same thing with Presentation.  If you can't schedule a team that will finish above .500 you would prefer to schedule no one or a game that doesn't count for SoS.  There are no bonus points awarded for beating a conference champ.

^^^
Speaking truth

Also, in regards to the Presentation game, it's definitely not "meaningless" to the committee. Those non-DIII games are only meaningless if they're wins, if it's a loss, that definitely hurts a team's chances (think of when UWO lost to two Top 25 NAIA teams and FCS South Dakota State, but finished 6-1 vs DIII).

I'm looking through the 2014 pool C discussion and I don't see convincing evidence that the out of division losses hurt them.  Their SoS was comparatively low and Platteville likely dropped out of the regional rankings at the end leaving them without a regionally ranked win.  You could say that if you don't play any Division 3 opponents you're not going to be competitive for a bid as you need a SoS boosting game (like Scholastica), not merely the lack of a bad SoS game.

I also believe we've heard from a committee chair in the past that 8-1=9-1.

Those losses definitely hurt Oshkosh.  They are secondary criteria, which were definitely in play in 2014 (and most years, actually).  As I recall we had Oshkosh as the top ranked at-large team in the West region and we went through all five or six rounds of Pool C voting without selecting them, although it was close in the last round.  The way it played out, St. Thomas wound up going in, probably as the last team in, which kept Oshkosh off of the selection committee's board entirely and they didn't have to deal with it.  8-1 or 9-1 Oshkosh never ever would have been ranked behind St. Thomas, but 6-4 Oshkosh ended up too far back to get in the tournament.  Those losses were definitely problematic. 

[HansenRatings]

Fellas, I know I've explained this before.  1 loss to Eureka doesn't hurt the Johnnies SoS much.  St. Scholastica is still a great positive to the Johnnies SoS.  If the Johnnies played Eau Claire (or any other solid team with a bad record in a good conference) instead of Scholastica they'd be more nervous about the bid.  Same thing with Presentation.  If you can't schedule a team that will finish above .500 you would prefer to schedule no one or a game that doesn't count for SoS.  There are no bonus points awarded for beating a conference champ.

^^^
Speaking truth

Also, in regards to the Presentation game, it's definitely not "meaningless" to the committee. Those non-DIII games are only meaningless if they're wins, if it's a loss, that definitely hurts a team's chances (think of when UWO lost to two Top 25 NAIA teams and FCS South Dakota State, but finished 6-1 vs DIII).

I'm looking through the 2014 pool C discussion and I don't see convincing evidence that the out of division losses hurt them.  Their SoS was comparatively low and Platteville likely dropped out of the regional rankings at the end leaving them without a regionally ranked win.  You could say that if you don't play any Division 3 opponents you're not going to be competitive for a bid as you need a SoS boosting game (like Scholastica), not merely the lack of a bad SoS game.

I also believe we've heard from a committee chair in the past that 8-1=9-1.

I agree with your last statement, which is kinda the point I was making, but their SOS was not comparatively low. Here's UWO's SoS compared to those for the teams that did get a Pool C bid:

Wabash	0.520
Del Val	0.519
UW-Oshkosh	0.517
John Carroll	0.511
St. Thomas	0.502
Muhlenberg	0.500
Centre	0.440

Before the last week, Oshkosh was already ahead of St. Thomas in the West Regional ranking. UWO beat a 8-1 UWP team on the road in Week 11, and UST beat a 6-3 Gustie squad at home. UWP wasn't the only Regionally-Ranked team to lose that week either, as Bethel (who was one spot below them in the last public ranking) lost to Augsburg in that weird snow game, so I find it unlikely that UWP fell completely out of the Top 10 in the West.

I don't understand how you could make the argument that the out of division losses DIDN'T hurt UWO.