FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[SaintsFAN]

Looks like a high of 27 degrees on Saturday in Collegeville.  Its 60 degrees in Boston today and I'm headed to the Golf Club. 

At least the precipitation won't be rain during the game, I guess. 

[DuffMan]

Looks like a high of 27 degrees on Saturday in Collegeville.

Yeah, the bottom's fallen out here.  Hope for calm winds.

[MiacMan]

The UST vs Bethel match up or as finsleft calls it, The Bridesmaid Bowl, has an interesting twist. Steve Johnson has a track record of taking a Freshman QB & throwing him into the fire, riding that horse to the finish line. This will be a huge test for Roste, is he up for the test? If Bethel prevails & Roste is the horse that brings them to the finish line, we may be witnessing another Bethel team that will be really tough for the next 3 years.

A week ago I would have given the Tom$ a 10-14 point edge...not sure about that now. Bethel will need to have success throwing the ball to win. High temp will be 29 with not much rain. Not great conditions for the passing game.
If I were Tommie$ I would pound it with Parks...get on top early and grind it out.

I'm feeling pretty similarly. I might have taken the over on the 14 point thing at one point. Now, we just have to grind it out to get in the playoffs and hopefully we can get Perra and [/handwavy motion] things sorted out.

On the other hand, the optimist in me still believes we are capable of competing for a title and we are going to start the upward trend by crushing Bethel into submission.

Hey all!

Back from a successful deer camp! Ugh, unfortunately my confidence in the Tommies has taken a blow as well. Yikes, what is up with Perra? It just doesn't appear that the Tommies are playing very well and will be limping into the playoffs (counting this weekend) Hopefully they can turn things around but it won't be easy. I am now of the mindset that nothing will really surprise me this weekend. 

[hazzben]

Finally had a chance to listen to the ATN podcast with the committee chair. A few thoughts:

1. The Committee Chair should do this every year.

Why on earth wouldn't they?!? It was SO helpful to hear from him, get insight into how the National and RAC's interact, how they look at criteria, and the rationale behind decisions that we are often left to wonder about. It also humanizes the committee. I left thinking, he's a good dude, cares about d3, wants to get it right as much as possible. I'm guessing that's how it works most years. But in the absence of this kind of media work, it's far too easy to assume the worst and imagine the National Committee (and RAC's to a lesser degree) as this big monolithic entity that's just an extension of the NCAA, when it's far from that.

2. They need to fix Pool B.

Honestly, 5 at large berths isn't enough. It seems antiquated to have Pool B at all. If those teams are good enough to make the field, then let them duke it out with everyone else in Pool C. 6 bids, and maybe you make a qualifier like one of the 'At Large' tie breakers is being an outright conference champion. So all else being equal, a typical Pool B team still has a slight leg up, but we aren't bound to a Pool B bid in years when it means leaving home a better Pool C candidate. Not saying that's the case this year, but I think it's worthy of discussion.

3. I'm biggly in favor of the committee chair being an HC every year, or at least an AD with football coaching background.

It's not a knock on AD's who have chaired in the past. But I think you want as much football knowledge at the table, and the head of the table, as possible at the national committee level. I guess the concern might be that an AD chair is less likely to be biased. But really, is the AD of a given school less likely to have bias than the HC of a school? And he made a good point on the podcast, in a room full of Alpha's it's not like they can't see when a certain persons bias is poking its head up. IMO, you want as much football know-how and present experience at that table as possible. Current HC's have a much better feel for the quality of teams they've played and conference landscapes than your average AD.

4. In general, I like this system a lot.

It's never going to be perfect. They should absolutely keep the 'once ranked, always ranked' criteria for RRO's, but on the whole, it gets a whole lot more right than it does wrong.

Side Note: Why doesn't the West Region take a play from East Region's playbook.

The East loves to game the system, and slip in a few teams in slots 9-10 to help the resume of their at large teams. Especially since we don't have the 'once ranked, always ranked' criteria, this is smart, if somewhat nefarious, way to game the system. It seems like the West often feels the need to rank the milquetoast Pool A teams that are usually Rd 1 cannon fodder. Where the East loves to slip a 2 or 3 loss team in the back door to help boost the resume of at large candidates. I don't love that philosophy, but if other regions are employing it, I don't want to be 'holier than thou' at the cost of our teams. What does it matter if Martin Luther gets a token ranking of 10, when they are in the field anyway? They aren't ranked right now, but St. Scholastica has in been in years past. And then gotten its doors blown off in Triple Monkey stomp fashion, proving they were nowhere near a Top 10 West region team.

Also, this time of year is fun. Especially since Bethel is in the discussion again. 

[hazzben]

Steve Johnson has a track record of taking a Freshman QB & throwing him into the fire, riding that horse to the finish line...If Bethel prevails & Roste is the horse that brings them to the finish line, we may be witnessing another Bethel team that will be really tough for the next 3 years.

I said this about a month ago I'd guess. Roste looks like the most recent iteration of Wetzel and Aakre. Maybe even an amalgam of the two with a Wetzel type arm and speed and Aakre's bruising size. Regardless of what happens against UST Saturday, Coach J has found his horse for the next 3 years. They've got a really good young core around him, things look up in Arden Hills.

Ugh, unfortunately my confidence in the Tommies has taken a blow as well. Yikes, what is up with Perra? It just doesn't appear that the Tommies are playing very well and will be limping into the playoffs (counting this weekend) Hopefully they can turn things around but it won't be easy. I am now of the mindset that nothing will really surprise me this weekend. 

UST went from being regarded as a Stagg threat and consensus Top 4 team to us wondering if they can hold off Bethel.

That said, they are still the last team anyone in the West or North wants to get matched with early. Maybe we don't think they have the juice to get to the semi's but they could reek havoc on a quadrant of the bracket. They are still a very dangerous team.

The winner of Bethel/UST is very capable of making a run. A lot depends on how healthy they emerge from Saturday's likely bloodbath and where they get matched up in the tournament.

I said this before, but in some ways, going on the road in the playoffs can be a boon. It can be a major bonding point for a team that hits the road for a deep run. That's what we experienced at Bethel in 2007.

[jamtod]

Cortaca Jug in 2019 was just announced that it will be played at MetLife Stadium. I wonder what kind of on-campus crowds they generally get and what that will look like in a big stadium. It's kind of odd since neither of the campuses are particularly close to the stadium (both about 3.5 hours).

[Caz Bombers]

Cortaca Jug in 20, 19 was just announced that it will be played at MetLife Stadium. I wonder what kind of on-campus crowds they generally get and what that will look like in a big stadium. It's kind of odd since neither of the campuses are particularly close to the stadium (both about 3.5 hours).

I'm hoping really well, like your game did. We have more alumni in the NYC area than anywhere else including locally, and same for Cortland. We both draw a ton of students from Long Island and downstate, and us in New Jersey as well. Should be a good atmosphere if promoted well.

[AO]

Finally had a chance to listen to the ATN podcast with the committee chair. A few thoughts:

1. The Committee Chair should do this every year.

Why on earth wouldn't they?!? It was SO helpful to hear from him, get insight into how the National and RAC's interact, how they look at criteria, and the rationale behind decisions that we are often left to wonder about. It also humanizes the committee. I left thinking, he's a good dude, cares about d3, wants to get it right as much as possible. I'm guessing that's how it works most years. But in the absence of this kind of media work, it's far too easy to assume the worst and imagine the National Committee (and RAC's to a lesser degree) as this big monolithic entity that's just an extension of the NCAA, when it's far from that.

2. They need to fix Pool B.

Honestly, 5 at large berths isn't enough. It seems antiquated to have Pool B at all. If those teams are good enough to make the field, then let them duke it out with everyone else in Pool C. 6 bids, and maybe you make a qualifier like one of the 'At Large' tie breakers is being an outright conference champion. So all else being equal, a typical Pool B team still has a slight leg up, but we aren't bound to a Pool B bid in years when it means leaving home a better Pool C candidate. Not saying that's the case this year, but I think it's worthy of discussion.

3. I'm biggly in favor of the committee chair being an HC every year, or at least an AD with football coaching background.

It's not a knock on AD's who have chaired in the past. But I think you want as much football knowledge at the table, and the head of the table, as possible at the national committee level. I guess the concern might be that an AD chair is less likely to be biased. But really, is the AD of a given school less likely to have bias than the HC of a school? And he made a good point on the podcast, in a room full of Alpha's it's not like they can't see when a certain persons bias is poking its head up. IMO, you want as much football know-how and present experience at that table as possible. Current HC's have a much better feel for the quality of teams they've played and conference landscapes than your average AD.

4. In general, I like this system a lot.

It's never going to be perfect. They should absolutely keep the 'once ranked, always ranked' criteria for RRO's, but on the whole, it gets a whole lot more right than it does wrong.

Side Note: Why doesn't the West Region take a play from East Region's playbook.

The East loves to game the system, and slip in a few teams in slots 9-10 to help the resume of their at large teams. Especially since we don't have the 'once ranked, always ranked' criteria, this is smart, if somewhat nefarious, way to game the system. It seems like the West often feels the need to rank the milquetoast Pool A teams that are usually Rd 1 cannon fodder. Where the East loves to slip a 2 or 3 loss team in the back door to help boost the resume of at large candidates. I don't love that philosophy, but if other regions are employing it, I don't want to be 'holier than thou' at the cost of our teams. What does it matter if Martin Luther gets a token ranking of 10, when they are in the field anyway? They aren't ranked right now, but St. Scholastica has in been in years past. And then gotten its doors blown off in Triple Monkey stomp fashion, proving they were nowhere near a Top 10 West region team.

Also, this time of year is fun. Especially since Bethel is in the discussion again. 

I don't think you need a committee chair to be a head coach, just somebody that's willing to explain the decisions that were made.  The place you need coaches is on the championships committee where they can create better selection criteria.  D1 hoops finally got rid of RPI this year and has started to move towards more accurate advanced stats.

You might be happy to learn that next year there won't be a pool B bid, but that's because the NEWMAC is getting an A.   Pool C will stay at 5 bids.

They got rid of "once ranked always ranked".  The only thing that should matter is where you are ranked at the end of the year.  I don't care if you dropped to 11th from 5th or rose to 11th, you're still 11th. 

The East Region, not the West is actually the one who has tended to rank the low SoS teams that win their conferences.  If the committee is doing their job, they should realize that a close win against those teams that just barely make the regional rankings is not necessarily a better result than losing by 3 to the 1st or 2nd ranked team in a region.

[jamtod]

I don't think you need a committee chair to be a head coach, just somebody that's willing to explain the decisions that were made.  The place you need coaches is on the championships committee where they can create better selection criteria.  D1 hoops finally got rid of RPI this year and has started to move towards more accurate advanced stats.

You might be happy to learn that next year there won't be a pool B bid, but that's because the NEWMAC is getting an A.   Pool C will stay at 5 bids.

They got rid of "once ranked always ranked".  The only thing that should matter is where you are ranked at the end of the year.  I don't care if you dropped to 11th from 5th or rose to 11th, you're still 11th. 

The East Region, not the West is actually the one who has tended to rank the low SoS teams that win their conferences.  If the committee is doing their job, they should realize that a close win against those teams that just barely make the regional rankings is not necessarily a better result than losing by 3 to the 1st or 2nd ranked team in a region.

My issue with the emphasis on RRO is that the #11 team in a lot of regions might be significantly better than a #10 in other regions. Or even in the same region, #11 and #10 are not wildly different but one gets a lot of love and the other, maybe gets considered as a quality win?

[Pat Coleman]

Finally had a chance to listen to the ATN podcast with the committee chair. A few thoughts:

1. The Committee Chair should do this every year.

Agreed. Once or twice in the past 20 years we have had chairs who would be willing, but we haven't had the vehicle for it. However, this is the first time in a few years we've had a chair who is proactive at being the public face of the selection process.

2. They need to fix Pool B.

There won't be any Pool B next year. Everyone will be in an automatic bid conference. But that won't give you an extra at-large bid -- there will be 27 automatics.

3. I'm biggly in favor of the committee chair being an HC every year, or at least an AD with football coaching background.

No arguments here, although I'm not opposed to it being a conference commissioner, either.

4. In general, I like this system a lot.

It's never going to be perfect. They should absolutely keep the 'once ranked, always ranked' criteria for RRO's, but on the whole, it gets a whole lot more right than it does wrong.

Side Note: Why doesn't the West Region take a play from East Region's playbook.

The East loves to game the system, and slip in a few teams in slots 9-10 to help the resume of their at large teams. Especially since we don't have the 'once ranked, always ranked' criteria, this is smart, if somewhat nefarious, way to game the system. It seems like the West often feels the need to rank the milquetoast Pool A teams that are usually Rd 1 cannon fodder. Where the East loves to slip a 2 or 3 loss team in the back door to help boost the resume of at large candidates. I don't love that philosophy, but if other regions are employing it, I don't want to be 'holier than thou' at the cost of our teams. What does it matter if Martin Luther gets a token ranking of 10, when they are in the field anyway? They aren't ranked right now, but St. Scholastica has in been in years past. And then gotten its doors blown off in Triple Monkey stomp fashion, proving they were nowhere near a Top 10 West region team.

Also, this time of year is fun. Especially since Bethel is in the discussion again. 

I don't read the East the way you do. I think the East also slips in its AQs to the detriment of a higher quality program, for what it's worth.

[Pat Coleman]

I see I've basically just repeated what AO said. Not sure what that means.

[AO]

I don't think you need a committee chair to be a head coach, just somebody that's willing to explain the decisions that were made.  The place you need coaches is on the championships committee where they can create better selection criteria.  D1 hoops finally got rid of RPI this year and has started to move towards more accurate advanced stats.

You might be happy to learn that next year there won't be a pool B bid, but that's because the NEWMAC is getting an A.   Pool C will stay at 5 bids.

They got rid of "once ranked always ranked".  The only thing that should matter is where you are ranked at the end of the year.  I don't care if you dropped to 11th from 5th or rose to 11th, you're still 11th. 

The East Region, not the West is actually the one who has tended to rank the low SoS teams that win their conferences.  If the committee is doing their job, they should realize that a close win against those teams that just barely make the regional rankings is not necessarily a better result than losing by 3 to the 1st or 2nd ranked team in a region.

My issue with the emphasis on RRO is that the #11 team in a lot of regions might be significantly better than a #10 in other regions. Or even in the same region, #11 and #10 are not wildly different but one gets a lot of love and the other, maybe gets considered as a quality win?

The committee can certainly make those distinctions between regions, but I'd still say they're bound to the criteria in the sense that they're still using SoS to say #7 in the East is worse than #8 in the West.

[hazzben]

I see I've basically just repeated what AO said. Not sure what that means.

They got rid of "once ranked always ranked".  The only thing that should matter is where you are ranked at the end of the year.  I don't care if you dropped to 11th from 5th or rose to 11th, you're still 11th. 

The reason I'm in favor of once ranked always ranked is that there are so few data points in football.

It's not like there are 7 weeks of Regional Rankings. There are 3 of them. So even a team that dies off the last few weeks was at least good enough to be ranked deep into the season. You could even slap a qualifier like your 'ORAR' status is gone if your Win Percentage drops below .700 (vs. D3 competition). So a team that's sitting at 6-0 in the first ranking, but loses it's final 3 doesn't count.

If you make the Top 10 list in week 8 or 9, you're a result that the committee should be talking about.

With the size of D3, there are more than 40 teams that matter. Implementing ORAR would mean what, 50-60 teams are regarded as relevant data? That's still only 20% to 24% of D3 football teams. That doesn't seem unreasonable to me.

[mac77]

WEST         
1   Wisconsin-Whitewater   8-0   8-0
2   Saint John's (Minnesota)   9-0   9-0
3   Whitworth   8-0   8-0
4   Bethel (Minnesota)   8-1   8-1
5   Linfield   6-1   6-2
6   St. Thomas (Minnesota)   7-1   8-1
7   Monmouth (Illinois)   8-1   8-1
8   Wisconsin-La Crosse   6-2   6-3
9   Dubuque   7-2   7-2
10   Claremont-Mudd-Scripps   7-2   7-2

[mac77]

Thomas More moves up to #9 in South