FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[edward de vere]

If SJU wins the Stagg, (and if the chalk holds), they will have

beaten Bethel, on the road,
beaten UMHB, on the road,
beaten UWW, on the road,
and beaten UMU away from Collegeville.

That will be remarkable.

Also:  If I become a HOF-caliber MLB pitcher and I get filthy rich and I become very famous I will marry Kate Upton and THAT will be remarkable.

(Especially the Kate Upton part.)

I ain't saying SJU can't do it - I'm just saying that's a lot of ifs.

[edward de vere]

I was once a UMU "ehhh not that big a deal team", especially after the 2016 semi

" . . . ehh not that big a deal team" after losing by two points on UMHB's home field with a THIRD-STRING TRUE FRESHMAN QUARTERBACK???  I realize you later came to your senses but . . .  CRIKIES!

(But while I'm here, let me just say that I agree with HSCoach when he says that UMHB is definitely the D3 team most to be feared in the future.)

[bluenote]

The UMHB and SJU game should be a semi-final IMHO.... Either team could dominate in a game depending if Sagetarious was in line with Mars. I'm predicting UMHB 47 SJU 39. I think either team could go to the final if they had a path....

[bluenote]

I think it's really remarkable that the MIAC has 2 teams left... that's astounding... great job!   

[Ralph Turner]

If SJU wins the Stagg, (and if the chalk holds), they will have

beaten Bethel, on the road,
beaten UMHB, on the road,
beaten UWW, on the road,
and beaten UMU away from Collegeville.

That will be remarkable.

That is half of the field.

SJU monkey-stomped a Thomas More team that Muhlenberg edged by 3 points on the road.

That is the same Thomas More that beat St Lawrence by 36 on the road. SLU lost by 7 at RPI.

There... SJU and Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon with the 2018 Quarterfinals. (There are a bunch of connections from SJU to JHU through Thomas More.)


As for Kate Upton, she is remarkable.   

[D O.C.]

Just love me some Ralph Turner.

[d-train]

If SJU wins the Stagg, (and if the chalk holds), they will have

beaten Bethel, on the road,
beaten UMHB, on the road,
beaten UWW, on the road,
and beaten UMU away from Collegeville.

That will be remarkable.

The '99 Lutes and '00 Johnnies were road warriors, but that potential three-game set to finish this year is crazy. I'm not sure I see it happening...

[OzJohnnie]

My thoughts on SJU v UMHB.  I reckon both teams can score at least 28, maybe even 35.  So the question is how much more than that will they score?  Here comes the fancy science.

SJU in the first half of the last three games averaged 12 minutes and 45 seconds of possession a half and scored a TD every 2 minutes and 6 seconds for an average of 6.3 TD's a half.  So, if UMHB hold the Johnnies to half their normal production then that's a 42 point pace over a full game (I only count the first half because the foot comes off the gas after half time).

UMHB in the first half of the last three games scored 4.5 TD's in the first half, so if the Johnnies hold them to 2/3 of their normal production then that's 40 points.

A coin flip, on a knife edge.  Just one extra drive, certainly possible for both, or one extra stop, also possible, and the game flips.

I say Johnnies by one score in a shootout.


EDIT:  And scoreboard pressure will make all the difference.  If someone gets to a two score lead then watch out as the risks will increase the turnovers will start.  And that will be the end of one team's dream.

[OzJohnnie]

Still thinking, the best defenses that SJU faced held them to 30 (BU) and 40 (UST).  UST was the offensive breakout when we discovered that AirJohnnie^tm had returned in a big way.  Both of those defenses are rated well behind UHMB.

Likewise, UHMB hasn't faced an offense as potent as SJU's all season, the only thing close is HSU and they are way behind the ratings of SJU.

On the other side of the ball, the SJU D has faced nothing like the UHMB.  Likewise, the UHMB offense hasn't come up against a defense rated half as well as the Johnnie D, not even HSU is rated half as highly as the Jays.

(these comparisons all courtesy of Massey)

So it's quite obvious to me that the big questions of the contest are: Can the SJU D dampen the UHMD scoring machine enough and the Johnnie O break out enough to get the win.  Undoubtedly, UHMB is favoured.  It's also true that neither team has encountered another team this good this year.  But lastly, the Jays have played two squads that are much tougher than the one quality squad UHMB has lined up against this year.  I think there's a good chance the Jays will win.  Turnovers.  That's my only worry.

[DustySJU]

Still thinking, the best defenses that SJU faced held them to 30 (BU) and 40 (UST).  UST was the offensive breakout when we discovered that AirJohnnie^tm had returned in a big way.  Both of those defenses are rated well behind UHMB.

Likewise, UHMB hasn't faced an offense as potent as SJU's all season, the only thing close is HSU and they are way behind the ratings of SJU.

On the other side of the ball, the SJU D has faced nothing like the UHMB.  Likewise, the UHMB offense hasn't come up against a defense rated half as well as the Johnnie D, not even HSU is rated half as highly as the Jays.

(these comparisons all courtesy of Massey)

So it's quite obvious to me that the big questions of the contest are: Can the SJU D dampen the UHMD scoring machine enough and the Johnnie O break out enough to get the win.  Undoubtedly, UHMB is favoured.  It's also true that neither team has encountered another team this good this year.  But lastly, the Jays have played two squads that are much tougher than the one quality squad UHMB has lined up against this year.  I think there's a good chance the Jays will win.  Turnovers.  That's my only worry.

First order of business - ball possession.

Developing......

[DuffMan]

One factor that hasn't been taken into account is the TX weather.  Sure, 70s will be nice as a fan, but these Johnnie's are used to playing in the mid-20s.  That's a big swing when your body isn't acclimated to it.  I know, I know, they'll be practicing in the Gagliardi Dome this week, but 3-4 days of warmer practice isn't gonna do a whole lot. 

I guess it's out of our control, though.

I wish I could make the trek!

[wildcat11]

Chewey,

Play that game again and David Russell would leave a cleat mark on Duff's forehead!

That was a good team you guys had that year and 2003 when we played at SJU and, especially, in 2004.   Hard to see what's happened to PLU.  That program has been sort of let down since Frosty retired.  Your coach staff has changed it appears but the program is still strong.  I wonder if Bluenote is still around.......good guy

Blue is still going strong on the NWC board! 

Yeah, PLU has never been the same.  They always play hard but haven't been able to get back to the heights of the 80s/90s.  A new staff took over this past year and I think he'll get the Lutes moving back towards the top tier of the NWC down the road.

Anyways,  I'm excited for this weekends game between UMHB/SJU.  Super interesting match-up and should be a Semi-Final/Finals round game.

[Toby Taff]

One factor that hasn't been taken into account is the TX weather.  Sure, 70s will be nice as a fan, but these Johnnie's are used to playing in the mid-20s.  That's a big swing when your body isn't acclimated to it.  I know, I know, they'll be practicing in the Gagliardi Dome this week, but 3-4 days of warmer practice isn't gonna do a whole lot. 

I guess it's out of our control, though.

I wish I could make the trek!

Just got a text saying the early forecast is sustained winds @ 15-20 gusting up to 30 in Belton. Should be an exciting match up...wish i was going to be there  But I'll be in New Braunfels and San Antonio to Celebrate Mine and My Mom's birthday by taking her to see the Christmas lights on the River Walk. You can bet I'll be parked with my phone somewhere watching though.

[retagent]

One factor that hasn't been taken into account is the TX weather.  Sure, 70s will be nice as a fan, but these Johnnie's are used to playing in the mid-20s.  That's a big swing when your body isn't acclimated to it.  I know, I know, they'll be practicing in the Gagliardi Dome this week, but 3-4 days of warmer practice isn't gonna do a whole lot. 

I guess it's out of our control, though.

I wish I could make the trek!

I don't know. When I go to Cali in the winter, it takes me about 5 minutes to start enjoying 70 degree weather after spending a couple months at or below freezing. My golf game doesn't suffer in that weather.

[MiacMan]

Congrats to both the Johnnies and the Royals! You have done the MIAC proud regardless of what happens this weekend. Based on what has transpired in the playoffs, it appears that the MIAC was significantly better than any other conference this year. A solid argument can certainly be made to have 3 teams in the top 10 in the final rankings and should probably claim the top conference ranking going into next year (at least until mid-season). Good luck to both teams this weekend!