FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[miac952]

It's happened before but that was a different time and not a team that had a loss to UW-Eau Claire. A lot of dominoes would have to fall in order for that to even be in consideration.

Also, U$T would need to beat GAC and unethical Bethel.

Based on current standings and projecting higher ranked teams win out I see 8 leagues positioned for a possible at-large so UST is in a tough spot. My rundown below removes any 2 loss teams from consideration besides UST and assumes 1 loss teams from lesser confernces won't recieve a bid (Williams/Wesleyan NESCAC).

Centennial (1 loss Susquehanna), CCIW (1 loss N Central), Liberty (1 loss Union/Ithaca), MIAC (1 loss Bethel, 2 Loss UST), NJAC (1 loss Wesley), Ohio (1 loss John Carroll/Baldwin Wallace), SCIAC (1 loss Redlands), WIAC (1 loss UW-Platt or 1-loss UW-W with loss to Osh or Lax) are the teams I see fighting for the 5 at-large bids.

In addition to the above 1 loss Brockport still plays undefeated Cortland in the Empire 8 so a 1 loss Cortland would also be on the bubble. And in the ODAC Bridewater is currently undefeated and receiving votes in the D3.com poll. They still play 1 loss Randolph-Macon so another bubble team could pop from that game as well.

Solid analysis. Bethel is a shoe in with a UST win. UST has a good shot if they sweep Bethel and Gustavus, but will be largely dependent on where they land in the regional rankings. Wetting the bed at UWEC could be UST's demise. Hardin Simmons might be another two loss consideration with how they took MHB to the wire on Saturday.

Building brackets around any teams not named SJU, MHB, UWW and Mount at this point would be very disappointing. Those are your runaway 1 seeds, barring a surprising result. The Johnnies should be the most battle tested, with 3 score wins against what I believe are two top 10 teams.

[DuffMan]

Building brackets around any teams not named SJU, MHB, UWW and Mount at this point would be very disappointing.

I agree with your statement, but I will be surprised (pleasantly) if it shakes out in this manner.

[hazzben]

Based on current standings and projecting higher ranked teams win out I see 8 leagues positioned for a possible at-large so UST is in a tough spot. My rundown below removes any 2 loss teams from consideration besides UST and assumes 1 loss teams from lesser confernces won't recieve a bid (Williams/Wesleyan NESCAC).

Centennial (1 loss Susquehanna), CCIW (1 loss N Central), Liberty (1 loss Union/Ithaca), MIAC (1 loss Bethel, 2 Loss UST), NJAC (1 loss Wesley), Ohio (1 loss John Carroll/Baldwin Wallace), SCIAC (1 loss Redlands), WIAC (1 loss UW-Platt or 1-loss UW-W with loss to Osh or Lax) are the teams I see fighting for the 5 at-large bids.

In addition to the above 1 loss Brockport still plays undefeated Cortland in the Empire 8 so a 1 loss Cortland would also be on the bubble. And in the ODAC Bridewater is currently undefeated and receiving votes in the D3.com poll. They still play 1 loss Randolph-Macon so another bubble team could pop from that game as well.

Solid analysis. Bethel is a shoe in with a UST win. UST has a good shot if they sweep Bethel and Gustavus, but will be largely dependent on where they land in the regional rankings. Wetting the bed at UWEC could be UST's demise. Hardin Simmons might be another two loss consideration with how they took MHB to the wire on Saturday.

Building brackets around any teams not named SJU, MHB, UWW and Mount at this point would be very disappointing. Those are your runaway 1 seeds, barring a surprising result. The Johnnies should be the most battle tested, with 3 score wins against what I believe are two top 10 teams.

GAC actually has a better shot as a two loss team than UST. If they beat UST, and Bethel beats UST, GAC's only two losses would be competitive games to two very good teams. UST at two losses still has the glaring UWEC game on their resume.

Also, its being discussed on the pool C board that unbeaten Ithaca probably gets a 1 seed over SJU/UWW/Wheaton. I posted about why I thought it shouldn't break that way. Given primary criteria, but also the tie breaker of "last years playoff results." The latter is a major factor that favors SJU and UWW for 1 seeds. Sadly, it seems that there's an unwritten criteria that the East gets a 1 see as long as they have an unbeaten who doesn't have a terrible SOS. It ignores the criteria, but it tends to break that way.

[OzJohnnie]

Based on current standings and projecting higher ranked teams win out I see 8 leagues positioned for a possible at-large so UST is in a tough spot. My rundown below removes any 2 loss teams from consideration besides UST and assumes 1 loss teams from lesser confernces won't recieve a bid (Williams/Wesleyan NESCAC).

Centennial (1 loss Susquehanna), CCIW (1 loss N Central), Liberty (1 loss Union/Ithaca), MIAC (1 loss Bethel, 2 Loss UST), NJAC (1 loss Wesley), Ohio (1 loss John Carroll/Baldwin Wallace), SCIAC (1 loss Redlands), WIAC (1 loss UW-Platt or 1-loss UW-W with loss to Osh or Lax) are the teams I see fighting for the 5 at-large bids.

In addition to the above 1 loss Brockport still plays undefeated Cortland in the Empire 8 so a 1 loss Cortland would also be on the bubble. And in the ODAC Bridewater is currently undefeated and receiving votes in the D3.com poll. They still play 1 loss Randolph-Macon so another bubble team could pop from that game as well.

Solid analysis. Bethel is a shoe in with a UST win. UST has a good shot if they sweep Bethel and Gustavus, but will be largely dependent on where they land in the regional rankings. Wetting the bed at UWEC could be UST's demise. Hardin Simmons might be another two loss consideration with how they took MHB to the wire on Saturday.

Building brackets around any teams not named SJU, MHB, UWW and Mount at this point would be very disappointing. Those are your runaway 1 seeds, barring a surprising result. The Johnnies should be the most battle tested, with 3 score wins against what I believe are two top 10 teams.

GAC actually has a better shot as a two loss team than UST. If they beat UST, and Bethel beats UST, GAC's only two losses would be competitive games to two very good teams. UST at two losses still has the glaring UWEC game on their resume.

Also, its being discussed on the pool C board that unbeaten Ithaca probably gets a 1 seed over SJU/UWW/Wheaton. I posted about why I thought it shouldn't break that way. Given primary criteria, but also the tie breaker of "last years playoff results." The latter is a major factor that favors SJU and UWW for 1 seeds. Sadly, it seems that there's an unwritten criteria that the East gets a 1 see as long as they have an unbeaten who doesn't have a terrible SOS. It ignores the criteria, but it tends to break that way.

I think they have little idea how reliably potent the Erdmann led offense is. Or, likewise, how dynamically strong the defense is. If we have to go on the road then we have to go on the road. I'm not fussed.

[miac952]

Based on current standings and projecting higher ranked teams win out I see 8 leagues positioned for a possible at-large so UST is in a tough spot. My rundown below removes any 2 loss teams from consideration besides UST and assumes 1 loss teams from lesser confernces won't recieve a bid (Williams/Wesleyan NESCAC).

Centennial (1 loss Susquehanna), CCIW (1 loss N Central), Liberty (1 loss Union/Ithaca), MIAC (1 loss Bethel, 2 Loss UST), NJAC (1 loss Wesley), Ohio (1 loss John Carroll/Baldwin Wallace), SCIAC (1 loss Redlands), WIAC (1 loss UW-Platt or 1-loss UW-W with loss to Osh or Lax) are the teams I see fighting for the 5 at-large bids.

In addition to the above 1 loss Brockport still plays undefeated Cortland in the Empire 8 so a 1 loss Cortland would also be on the bubble. And in the ODAC Bridewater is currently undefeated and receiving votes in the D3.com poll. They still play 1 loss Randolph-Macon so another bubble team could pop from that game as well.

Solid analysis. Bethel is a shoe in with a UST win. UST has a good shot if they sweep Bethel and Gustavus, but will be largely dependent on where they land in the regional rankings. Wetting the bed at UWEC could be UST's demise. Hardin Simmons might be another two loss consideration with how they took MHB to the wire on Saturday.

Building brackets around any teams not named SJU, MHB, UWW and Mount at this point would be very disappointing. Those are your runaway 1 seeds, barring a surprising result. The Johnnies should be the most battle tested, with 3 score wins against what I believe are two top 10 teams.

GAC actually has a better shot as a two loss team than UST. If they beat UST, and Bethel beats UST, GAC's only two losses would be competitive games to two very good teams. UST at two losses still has the glaring UWEC game on their resume.

Also, its being discussed on the pool C board that unbeaten Ithaca probably gets a 1 seed over SJU/UWW/Wheaton. I posted about why I thought it shouldn't break that way. Given primary criteria, but also the tie breaker of "last years playoff results." The latter is a major factor that favors SJU and UWW for 1 seeds. Sadly, it seems that there's an unwritten criteria that the East gets a 1 see as long as they have an unbeaten who doesn't have a terrible SOS. It ignores the criteria, but it tends to break that way.

If GAC wants any shot of getting in they are rooting for UST to beat Bethel. If Bethel beats UST, GAC will land behind Bethel in regional rankings and never make it to the table as a 3rd team in a conference trying to get invited to the dance with two losses.

[miac952]

Has a MIAC QB ever made an NFL roster or practice squad? Curious on history. Erdmann has a very good shot at being the first. His skills and size fall in line with Alex Tanney, Joe Callahan, and Matt Blanchard.

[hazzben]

Based on current standings and projecting higher ranked teams win out I see 8 leagues positioned for a possible at-large so UST is in a tough spot. My rundown below removes any 2 loss teams from consideration besides UST and assumes 1 loss teams from lesser confernces won't recieve a bid (Williams/Wesleyan NESCAC).

Centennial (1 loss Susquehanna), CCIW (1 loss N Central), Liberty (1 loss Union/Ithaca), MIAC (1 loss Bethel, 2 Loss UST), NJAC (1 loss Wesley), Ohio (1 loss John Carroll/Baldwin Wallace), SCIAC (1 loss Redlands), WIAC (1 loss UW-Platt or 1-loss UW-W with loss to Osh or Lax) are the teams I see fighting for the 5 at-large bids.

In addition to the above 1 loss Brockport still plays undefeated Cortland in the Empire 8 so a 1 loss Cortland would also be on the bubble. And in the ODAC Bridewater is currently undefeated and receiving votes in the D3.com poll. They still play 1 loss Randolph-Macon so another bubble team could pop from that game as well.

Solid analysis. Bethel is a shoe in with a UST win. UST has a good shot if they sweep Bethel and Gustavus, but will be largely dependent on where they land in the regional rankings. Wetting the bed at UWEC could be UST's demise. Hardin Simmons might be another two loss consideration with how they took MHB to the wire on Saturday.

Building brackets around any teams not named SJU, MHB, UWW and Mount at this point would be very disappointing. Those are your runaway 1 seeds, barring a surprising result. The Johnnies should be the most battle tested, with 3 score wins against what I believe are two top 10 teams.

GAC actually has a better shot as a two loss team than UST. If they beat UST, and Bethel beats UST, GAC's only two losses would be competitive games to two very good teams. UST at two losses still has the glaring UWEC game on their resume.

Also, its being discussed on the pool C board that unbeaten Ithaca probably gets a 1 seed over SJU/UWW/Wheaton. I posted about why I thought it shouldn't break that way. Given primary criteria, but also the tie breaker of "last years playoff results." The latter is a major factor that favors SJU and UWW for 1 seeds. Sadly, it seems that there's an unwritten criteria that the East gets a 1 see as long as they have an unbeaten who doesn't have a terrible SOS. It ignores the criteria, but it tends to break that way.

If GAC wants any shot of getting in they are rooting for UST to beat Bethel. If Bethel beats UST, GAC will land behind Bethel in regional rankings and never make it to the table as a 3rd team in a conference trying to get invited to the dance with two losses.

GAC isn't getting ranked ahead of a 2 loss Bethel ... Head to Head trumps in that scenario (L vs. Bethel came at home as well). GAC's best and most realistic hope is that Bethel and SJU look really really impressive and their only two losses are to unbeaten and 1 loss teams already in the playoffs. Unless Bethel lays an egg against Hamline or Augsburg, but again, that'd be epic upset territory. Even then, 2 Loss GAC still needs lots of help nationally, aka unbeaten Pool A teams not losing and lots of other 1 loss teams picking up a second L. But getting stuck behind 2 loss Bethel would mean they are toast.

[OzJohnnie]

Has a MIAC QB ever made an NFL roster or practice squad? Curious on history. Erdmann has a very good shot at being the first. His skills and size fall in line with Alex Tanney, Joe Callahan, and Matt Blanchard.

I wonder if he's got an nfl-grade cannon or not. For a d3 arm it's extraordinary, no doubt. He's got good QB skills from the advanced passing scheme SJU runs but do d3 defenses put him under the pressure needed to test his decision making enough for nfl scouts to trust it?  I don't know.  It would be a thrill for SJU supporters, that's for sure.

[jamtod]

GAC actually has a better shot as a two loss team than UST. If they beat UST, and Bethel beats UST, GAC's only two losses would be competitive games to two very good teams. UST at two losses still has the glaring UWEC game on their resume.

Also, its being discussed on the pool C board that unbeaten Ithaca probably gets a 1 seed over SJU/UWW/Wheaton. I posted about why I thought it shouldn't break that way. Given primary criteria, but also the tie breaker of "last years playoff results." The latter is a major factor that favors SJU and UWW for 1 seeds. Sadly, it seems that there's an unwritten criteria that the East gets a 1 see as long as they have an unbeaten who doesn't have a terrible SOS. It ignores the criteria, but it tends to break that way.

If GAC wants any shot of getting in they are rooting for UST to beat Bethel. If Bethel beats UST, GAC will land behind Bethel in regional rankings and never make it to the table as a 3rd team in a conference trying to get invited to the dance with two losses.

Disagree. GAC is almost certainly behind Bethel either way. They need Bethel to be strong and come off the board early so they can come under consideration.

2-loss MIAC teams made it in 2012 and 2014. The WIAC a few years ago is the most recent example of a conference getting 3 teams. In any event, it's a longshot.

[GoldandBlueBU]

Has a MIAC QB ever made an NFL roster or practice squad? Curious on history. Erdmann has a very good shot at being the first. His skills and size fall in line with Alex Tanney, Joe Callahan, and Matt Blanchard.

Griffin Neal from the Cobbers was under contract for the Saints at one point, but I don't believe he ever was on a 53 man roster, or practice squad.  Someone else may know more...

[DuffMan]

Erdmann has a very good shot at being the first.

I could see someone taking a chance on him.  I think Ben Bartch will make an NFL squad, and I think he's got a decent shot at being drafted.

[repete]

Erdmann has a very good shot at being the first.

I could see someone taking a chance on him.  I think Ben Bartch will make an NFL squad, and I think he's got a decent shot at being drafted.

I'd bet on a FA invite. Would be good to hear a comparison between Jerdy and the Tanney kid from a few years back. Wondering if Pat or anyone in his crew had seen both.

[miac952]

Upon further review I edit my statement, Gac has no shot of making the playoffs. They will always fall behind Bethel, and lose a H2H. A two loss team isnt making as the 3rd representative from a conference. If Bethel wins out there odds are 95% plus. If UST wins out I would say they have a better than 50/50 shot of making it. If bethel loses to UST, and Gustavus beats UST, Bethel has a 50/50 shot. Either Bethel or UST going on the road in week 1 of the playoffs against an IIAC champion could present a good opportunity to advance.

[miac952]

Erdmann has a very good shot at being the first.

I could see someone taking a chance on him.  I think Ben Bartch will make an NFL squad, and I think he's got a decent shot at being drafted.

I'd bet on a FA invite. Would be good to hear a comparison between Jerdy and the Tanney kid from a few years back. Wondering if Pat or anyone in his crew had seen both.

I've seen both. Erdmann is equal to Tanney to my naked eye. Saw Tanney play a couple times and Erdmann play 5-6 times now. Tanney may have had a bit stronger arm. But not by much. Erdmann moves better, Tanney was a statue. The interesting thing on Erdmann is that his whole receiving core turned over and the production is equal or better. Some of that can be attributed to the OC's playcalling (if SJU loses him and Erdmann, watch out, Heckendorf is a keeper). And some of it is the superb pass protection from the O-line. But, Jackson has lit up defenses in the top 10 of Division III pretty consistently now when a scheme is being built around stopping him. I assume its a goal of his to give this a shot. He passed up a Fulbright opportunity to pursue it.

[GoldandBlueBU]

The interesting thing on Erdmann is that his whole receiving core turned over and the production is equal or better. Some of that can be attributed to the OC's playcalling (if SJU loses him and Erdmann, watch out, Heckendorf is a keeper). And some of it is the superb pass protection from the O-line. But, Jackson has lit up defenses in the top 10 of Division III pretty consistently now when a scheme is being built around stopping him. I assume its a goal of his to give this a shot. He passed up a Fulbright opportunity to pursue it.

That has stood out in my mind as noteworthy.  Through SJU's first couple of games, it sort of seemed like (from my outsider perspective), that the offense had been set back a bit with all of the receiver graduation...but they sure seem to have gained some sort of sync / groove. 

My guess is that if SJU played Stout and GAC again now, the scores would not be as close.