FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[DuffMan]

I've been ordered to WFH as much as possible.  As a scientist, there is a lot of work that can't be done at home, so we're working on a plan to minimize our interactions.  We have a small group, and as my boss said today, if one if us gets infected, we're all quarantined for two weeks.  My wife has always WFH.  It's been an interesting few days with all 4 of us home-- trying to do work + maintain some semblance of learning for the kids.
I honestly will be surprised if MN schools resume this spring, and it will be interesting to see how this plays out.  I'm imagining that my wife, myself, or both of us will end up needing to take leaves of absence at some point--we'll see how our employers deal with it.

I see the MSP archdiocese finally suspended masses for at least 2 weeks. 

[OzJohnnie]

And it starts...

Qantas Airlines just announced that are immediately laying off 2/3's of their workforce until at least May.  They have suspended all international flights but a few inbound flights helping Australians return home.  They are working with some other corporates, grocery chains are mentioned, trying to find temporary employment for the people they are laying off so that they can get them back when/if things pick up again.

[OldAuggie]

Both of these are at least one day old but still interesting.

Read this first one, let the simulations run, then think.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?fbclid=IwAR3BdBDbvL6GrrJeGhUH7bnUD-Pr84WY1vVwYt4_ta6NF3Bgf7yWJsogsY8


Might want to check this out too.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317150116.htm?fbclid=IwAR2cggdl1X6DRXdzH8fHep_XcWFGzrjf3yQrtdsa21bg1bVOkrFoYx2Cj6k

[jamtod]

I hate to say it (because I'm afraid I'll get yelled at), but I've think we've crossed the massive overreaction threshold.  The same people are vulnerable to this bug as were two weeks ago, namely the aged and infirm.  And while we most definitely need to make sure we protect the vulnerable, I'm not sure global economic shutdown is the proper approach.  In fact, I'm certain it isn't.

And as I said at the beginning, I would hate to live in a third world country (or Italy) where the health system is suspect (or surrounded by the second oldest population in earth after japan.  23% of Italians are over 65).

Anyways, I'm going to work and I'm keeping everyone in my company focused on customer delivery. Because we've got to keep paying the bills and don't have the luxury of the media panic merchants of simultaneously declaring we're all going to die and it's hopeless while getting a pay check.

(Apologies in advance if I offend anyone, but shutting down the economy will prove far mar damaging that this bug ever will. I'll check out now because I don't want to start a fight on these boards. I may delete this post upon reflection.)

It's certainly an interesting and worthwhile discussion to have, provided you have rational parties involved in the discussion (normally not the case here :-D but that involves important matters like sports/school rivalries, not trivial stuff like the fate of the world and global economy).
It's almost impossible to determine whether we are under or overreacting due to the many unknowns, so the best we have is rough statistical modeling hopefully based on correct assumptions. In order to really get proper data and put the focus on the right decisions that don't have a 3rd order negative impact in other ways, we need to be doing better testing and... well, that's not happening right now.

So then it comes down to evaluating individual decisions and policies. Non-essential international travel? Seems like it was probably good to slow that a while ago. I'm not sure at this point how much good it's doing, but that has serious impacts to the airlines and travel sector.
You raise some interesting points on the infrastructure needed for WFH. I am a commercial bank portfolio manager for one of the larger banks in the country and our entire teams have been able to work remotely for a while, so that's what we are doing.
But my clients are mostly in manufacturing and folks on the factory floor don't have that luxury. For now, they are business as usual aside from some supply chain and shipping disruptions, plus concerns about recessionary impact that will have lagging indicators. If they move their office staff remote, those factory workers justifiably say "WTF what about us" so they are mostly taking whatever precautions they can. If they have positive cases on the floor, it might shut them down completely.

The Big 3 Auto companies in the US are shutting down because nobody is leaving houses and the factory workers have these same concerns as well.

I'm not sure which of these decisions I can point to as an overreaction. I certainly don't want to be going in to the office or sitting in a restaurant at this point. If we had better testing and better data, we could make better decisions, but at this point, I just hope that a month out everyone who thinks this was an overreaction feels smugly vindicated because the drastic actions work and slow this spread significantly.

[hazzben]

I have a friend who pastors a church in Italy and has been publishing updates. Here's a paragraph from the last update that is really sobering:

"The stories of tragedy are increasing every day. People are realizing that if they have to call the ambulance for their relative, there is a strong possibility that that will be the very last time they will ever see them. Your relative is taken to the hospital, you are not allowed to visit, they pass away in agony, you are not allowed to have a funeral, and the body is cremated because there are so many other infected bodies which have passed away, too. You then realize there are hundreds of families experiencing this around you, but you can't call friends to be with you. Those scenarios are what I suggest preparing for rather than being caught in the bathroom short on toilet paper should the horror ever come to that."

I don't have answers to all this, and I was very skeptical at first that this was media trying to grab headlines. But I'm taking the social distancing stuff seriously. I'm a prime candidate for "it won't effect me" ... but it's the ease with which the disease is transmitted and rate of fatality that's scary. Manhattan is my territory, was there just two weeks ago. Now on Zoom mtgs you can tell how shaken people are. Had multiple calls this week where the customer or prospect just volunteers up asking that we'd please be praying for them. Not in the generic sense, but in a way where you sense their urgency. Strange to have that conversation on a secular work call.

[GoldandBlueBU]

I have a friend who pastors a church in Italy and has been publishing updates. Here's a paragraph from the last update that is really sobering:

"The stories of tragedy are increasing every day. People are realizing that if they have to call the ambulance for their relative, there is a strong possibility that that will be the very last time they will ever see them. Your relative is taken to the hospital, you are not allowed to visit, they pass away in agony, you are not allowed to have a funeral, and the body is cremated because there are so many other infected bodies which have passed away, too. You then realize there are hundreds of families experiencing this around you, but you can't call friends to be with you. Those scenarios are what I suggest preparing for rather than being caught in the bathroom short on toilet paper should the horror ever come to that."

I don't have answers to all this, and I was very skeptical at first that this was media trying to grab headlines. But I'm taking the social distancing stuff seriously. I'm a prime candidate for "it won't effect me" ... but it's the ease with which the disease is transmitted and rate of fatality that's scary. Manhattan is my territory, was there just two weeks ago. Now on Zoom mtgs you can tell how shaken people are. Had multiple calls this week where the customer or prospect just volunteers up asking that we'd please be praying for them. Not in the generic sense, but in a way where you sense their urgency. Strange to have that conversation on a secular work call.

Wow.  Sobering indeed.

We've also been isolating...kids haven't done anything but play outside or in our house since Friday.  I've made a couple of grocery runs, but that's it.  WFH since Tuesday. 

Like Duff, I also think it's only a matter of time until school is called off for the year.  Kansas has already done so for the whole state. 

[DuffMan]

We've been compiling a grocery list, and I ventured to Cub at 7:00 this morning.  It was not as bad as I was fearing, and I only had three things on the list that I couldn't get.  I found it odd that pork was extremely scarce yet there was plenty of ground beef and chicken breast.  Also, there was literally no sugar or flour to be found, yet canned goods were well-stocked.  The rice aisle had been pillaged, and the bread aisle was pretty sparse.  Other than that, I had to buy a few brands that I normally wouldn't have, but I got provisions that will keep us well-fed for a while.

I talked to a friend last night who is an internal medicine doc in the Twin Cities.  She's taking this extremely seriously and got me more worried than I had been.  She's pleading with folks to donate any N95 masks that they may have because several of the clinics that she visits literally have none.  I've had a box sitting in my basement for several years, so we're dropping them off today.

[sjusection105]

I talked to a friend last night who is an internal medicine doc in the Twin Cities.  She's taking this extremely seriously and got me more worried than I had been.  She's pleading with folks to donate any N95 masks that they may have because several of the clinics that she visits literally have none.  I've had a box sitting in my basement for several years, so we're dropping them off today.

I watched the press briefing this morning (not much else going on at work) and it sounds as if the construction industry is donating mask because some liability has been lifted for manufacturers like 3M.
Also, a malaria drug is going to be used as a "therapeutic drug" this is not a cure or a vaccine but has worked well in other countries such as France and it sounds as if the US Military has a supply of this drug. Hopefully this can help people infected so they can get through with less severity  and less complications such as pneumonia.

[faunch]

At the end of January I missed 3.5 days of work w/ the worst "flu" I've ever had. I was essentially in bed from late Wednesday morning on Jan. 29 until Monday Feb. 3. I was miserable...fever, sweating, sore throat, congestion, coughing and chest pressure...worst ever....felt like an elephant was sitting on my chest. I went do the doc on the 5th and he said it was probably "just the flu." Also that day in the waiting room I met the owner of "Giggles Campfire Grill" at the state fair. He had the "flu" and cough to beat all.
I literally didn't feel better for 3-4 weeks. The cough and malaise wouldn't go away.
A couple days after I got sick my wife complained that she was coming down w/ something. Her symptoms were much milder...and she rebounded after a few days....my 15 year old daughter maybe had a sore throat for a day or so but really nothing.
A few of my co-workers suggested that maybe I didn't have the flu at all and may have had this virus. I did not get tested for the flu but now wish I had.
Allegedly this has been one of the worst "flu" seasons in a number of years. Is it possible people this C-19 virus has been circulating for over a month and only now we are identifying it because we are testing?

[miac952]

I hate to say it (because I'm afraid I'll get yelled at), but I've think we've crossed the massive overreaction threshold.  The same people are vulnerable to this bug as were two weeks ago, namely the aged and infirm.  And while we most definitely need to make sure we protect the vulnerable, I'm not sure global economic shutdown is the proper approach.  In fact, I'm certain it isn't.

And as I said at the beginning, I would hate to live in a third world country (or Italy) where the health system is suspect (or surrounded by the second oldest population in earth after japan.  23% of Italians are over 65).

Anyways, I'm going to work and I'm keeping everyone in my company focused on customer delivery. Because we've got to keep paying the bills and don't have the luxury of the media panic merchants of simultaneously declaring we're all going to die and it's hopeless while getting a pay check.

(Apologies in advance if I offend anyone, but shutting down the economy will prove far mar damaging that this bug ever will. I'll check out now because I don't want to start a fight on these boards. I may delete this post upon reflection.)

No offense taken OZ. But, I think you are discounting Italy's medical system. In most regards it is one of the most advanced in the world. They have more ICU beds and ventilators per 100,000 people than the US. It is "socialized" medicine, but based largely on numbers they have equally skilled clinical teams and more equipment than we do in the States to be ready for this. Granted, their population skews older, and that has had a dramatic effect. Early indications are that NY is 5-6 days away from being in a circumstance like Northern Italy. Hospital PPE has run out and they are running at 90-95% capacity in their ICU's.

This is an indication of what is yet to come, written by some of the foremost experts in forecasting infectious disease: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

[wm4]

Exact same, Faunch!

Except for me in was early December....knocked me out for about 7-8 days.  Assumed it was the flu, but then about day 4 I went to the clinic in Walgreens, they gave me meds that really didn't do a thing.  Day 6 I went to the urgent care clinic (they were phenomenal) because I wasn't getting any better.  They did a whole bunch of texts, even a chest xray.  There was definitely something going on w/ my lungs, but I tested negative for flu and pneumonia.  Although I tested negative, they said they'd treat it as if it were pneumonia.  I had many/all the symptoms which are common with "19".  A few more days of rest and I was good to go, but it was really a knockout to me for those 7-8 days. 

Then just earlier this week, I stumbled across a discussion on line among nurses who were sharing experiences and professional info.  They definitely were saying "remember back in December and January...." when they had all those cases that tested negative for flu?  They were wondering if that was really an earlier pass of 19 through the population.

Who know for sure, but as I put this info together along with my experience, I wonder if I had 19 as well.

[faunch]

[OzJohnnie]

I hate to say it (because I'm afraid I'll get yelled at), but I've think we've crossed the massive overreaction threshold.  The same people are vulnerable to this bug as were two weeks ago, namely the aged and infirm.  And while we most definitely need to make sure we protect the vulnerable, I'm not sure global economic shutdown is the proper approach.  In fact, I'm certain it isn't.

And as I said at the beginning, I would hate to live in a third world country (or Italy) where the health system is suspect (or surrounded by the second oldest population in earth after japan.  23% of Italians are over 65).

Anyways, I'm going to work and I'm keeping everyone in my company focused on customer delivery. Because we've got to keep paying the bills and don't have the luxury of the media panic merchants of simultaneously declaring we're all going to die and it's hopeless while getting a pay check.

(Apologies in advance if I offend anyone, but shutting down the economy will prove far mar damaging that this bug ever will. I'll check out now because I don't want to start a fight on these boards. I may delete this post upon reflection.)

No offense taken OZ. But, I think you are discounting Italy's medical system. In most regards it is one of the most advanced in the world. They have more ICU beds and ventilators per 100,000 people than the US. It is "socialized" medicine, but based largely on numbers they have equally skilled clinical teams and more equipment than we do in the States to be ready for this. Granted, their population skews older, and that has had a dramatic effect. Early indications are that NY is 5-6 days away from being in a circumstance like Northern Italy. Hospital PPE has run out and they are running at 90-95% capacity in their ICU's.

This is an indication of what is yet to come, written by some of the foremost experts in forecasting infectious disease: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Yeah, I don't reckon.  Italy are in a whole different situation to the US.  Plus I think you've got some stats wrong.  According to Forbes, the country with the number one count of critical care beds per capita is the gold old USA.  And the USA has three times as many as Italy.



https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/03/12/the-countries-with-the-most-critical-care-beds-per-capita-infographic/#4d5a21827f86

Additionally, Italy has a particularly vulnerable population with 23% of the population, or nearly 1 in 4 people, over 65.  Ground zero for this virus.  What's the US?  I don't know as it doesn't even register in the top 25 aged countries.

https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/countries-with-the-largest-aging-population-in-the-world.html

Far more concerning to our friends over the Atlantic that to us is that if you look close at the list, 24 of the 25 oldest countries in the world are European.  The only other member of the club is Japan.  And the EU only started protecting their borders and limiting travel three days ago.  Or was it four?  Limiting access to aged residence facilities there?  Hap-hazzard.

The key to the bug, it seems, is protecting the particularly vulnerable.  And it's not all bad news.  We've had two controlled experiments with the virus and they don't give "the world is going to end" results.  One was the Diamond Princess cruise ship filled with 3700 aged cruisers locked together in a Japanese harbor.  A little over 700 people were infected and 7 died, no one under 60.  A dangerous pneumonia, no doubt, but not a civilisation killer.

The second controlled, and even larger scale experiment, is South Korea.  There we have accurate and reliable information.  And here is the Korean CDC's information on the disease as of yesterday:



https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030

You'll notice a few things coming out of Korea (who have even fewer ICU beds per capita that Italy but entirely different results.  A younger population and better social protection for the aged and elderly that Italy?).

1. Mortality rate overall has been 1%.  Almost exactly consistent with the Diamond Princess outcomes.
2. Mortality rate under 30 has been 0. Not a single death out of 2,867 cases.
3. Mortality rate from 30-49 has been 0.09%. Two deaths out of 2,044 cases.
4. Mortality rate from 50-59 has been 0.37%. Six deaths out of 1,615 cases.
5. Over 70 and especially over 80 it gets dangerous. Keep them safe!  Particularly until treatments develop more.  Currently folks just have to power their way through if they develop pneumonia.

To be clear, I'm not saying this is not a serious and dangerous bug.  It obviously is.  We must make sure that the vulnerable are protected.  For the first three months of this pandemic, however, we've been acting with no reliable information and little understanding of how serious this could be.  Who is vulnerable, etc.  That warrants worst-case decision making.  Closing the borders early, before the WHO said to, was smart.  Closing off non-essential travel with Europe, the next outbreak centre, early and before the WHO said to was smart.  We didn't know what we were dealing with.

But now I think the media has reached such a frenzy that it's pushing us (and we're taking) measures that will destroy the economy.  And given what we have learned and experienced in the last three months, particularly in South Korea and on the Diamond Princess, I think we have crossed the threshold of massive overreaction.  The fear is still high and the willingness to act with a lesser and more appropriate response has not yet materialised in our social decision makers.  But I think that will come soon.  It escalated like a crazy in the lat 10 days and I expect it to ratchet down just as quickly in the next two weeks.

I don't know if I'm right or not, obviously, but I'm comfortable with the decisions and conclusions I've drawn.  Others can reasonably disagree.  We'll all fin out soon enough anyways.

Lastly, stay safe and protect yourself, particularly if you're in a vulnerable demographic or medical profile.

[finsleft]

I've been ordered to WFH as much as possible.  As a scientist, there is a lot of work that can't be done at home, so we're working on a plan to minimize our interactions.  We have a small group, and as my boss said today, if one if us gets infected, we're all quarantined for two weeks.  My wife has always WFH.  It's been an interesting few days with all 4 of us home-- trying to do work + maintain some semblance of learning for the kids.
I honestly will be surprised if MN schools resume this spring, and it will be interesting to see how this plays out.  I'm imagining that my wife, myself, or both of us will end up needing to take leaves of absence at some point--we'll see how our employers deal with it.
I see the MSP archdiocese finally suspended masses for at least 2 weeks. 

Attorneys expect to see a steep drop in the DUI business due to drinkers drinking from home ("DFH"). The divorce business should take a tremendous spike up in the coming months as we will see that too much togetherness is not always a good thing.

No MLB games really sucks, no Masters sucks, but I did discover last night that Amazon Prime has the entire Andy Griffith Show available for binging.

[Retired Old Rat]

NFL Game Pass announced everything will be free for six months.  We can all relive the Vikings four Super Bowl losses.