FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[jamtod]

A long and very informative article.  Recommended.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Im assuming this is the article I saw numerous "takedowns" of highlighting the problems before Medium saw fit to take it down for violating their standards?

Correct. An article written by a "political strategist", not scientist, not physician, not epidemiologist. He used us testing numbers in their frequently, all the while not acknowledging the severe testing shortage. There is lots of info out there on the web right now. Hard to decipher fact from fiction.

Written by a data scientist.  Working the numbers not the disease.

Play the ball, not the man.

If you are going to read that article, at least read this thread which addresses the many problems with his numbers.
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241522140559503360?s=19

What gave you an indication that I wouldn't be eager to read that thread?  I assume you were equally eager to read the article.

I read the thread.  He raises some interesting questions but you have to admit its more a rant than pointing out any problems.  I would much prefer a paper that explains better modelling.

Sure. There are plenty of those out there though. The Gint thing was a poor representation of the data though. It's reposted on ZeroHedge if one feels the need to track it down, but there is better cases (for both more aggressive action or critiquing that) out there

[OzJohnnie]

Sure. There are plenty of those out there though. The Gint thing was a poor representation of the data though. It's reposted on ZeroHedge if one feels the need to track it down, but there is better cases (for both more aggressive action or critiquing that) out there

Then post them.  I, for one, am eager to see them.

[OzJohnnie]

By the way, here is the CDC's preliminary outcomes analysis.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm?s_cid=mm6912e2_w

From the summary:

This first preliminary description of outcomes among patients with COVID-19 in the United States indicates that fatality was highest in persons aged ≥85, ranging from 10% to 27%, followed by 3% to 11% among persons aged 65–84 years, 1% to 3% among persons aged 55-64 years, <1% among persons aged 20–54 years, and no fatalities among persons aged ≤19 years.

So keep yourselves nice and isolated if you're over 65.  Follow the rules with great care.

[jamtod]

Sure. There are plenty of those out there though. The Gint thing was a poor representation of the data though. It's reposted on ZeroHedge if one feels the need to track it down, but there is better cases (for both more aggressive action or critiquing that) out there

Then post them.  I, for one, am eager to see them.

Finally got the baby back to sleep so it'll have to wait.

[OzJohnnie]

Hawthorn enter the break with a great game against Brisbane.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrSxWHJzCyE

And the last game until May 31,  West Coast v Melbourne.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEtDUcpLAds

[miac952]

A long and very informative article.  Recommended.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Im assuming this is the article I saw numerous "takedowns" of highlighting the problems before Medium saw fit to take it down for violating their standards?

Correct. An article written by a "political strategist", not scientist, not physician, not epidemiologist. He used us testing numbers in their frequently, all the while not acknowledging the severe testing shortage. There is lots of info out there on the web right now. Hard to decipher fact from fiction.

Written by a data scientist.  Working the numbers not the disease.

Play the ball, not the man.

FWIW, the writing was pulled down off Medium. And I see no scientist from the bro on his website. He is a "growth hacker"  https://www.aginnt.com/about. When there is countless information from Epidemiologists, Infectious Disease experts, and real scientists forgive me for not following the direction of a "growth hacker" that had his writing taken down within 12 hours of it being posted.

I am really curious though in comparing Japan and Italy. They both have an older population. Japan is more population dense. But results in patient outcomes and flattening the curve are much stronger in Japan. Probably a healthier and cleaner society, but there has to be more to it than that.

[OldAuggie]

https://covidactnow.org/state/MN
Here is another model. I heard rumors on Friday that today, Sunday, we would hear from Walz the announcement of Shelter in Place in MN. A good source but not a lock. It follows Art76 logic, Illinois is not far from MN. 

[OldAuggie]

http://m.startribune.com/coronavirus-pandemic-what-s-normal-now-what-s-next-an-interview-with-michael-osterholm/568978932/#comments

For anyone that missed this article.

[art76]

http://m.startribune.com/coronavirus-pandemic-what-s-normal-now-what-s-next-an-interview-with-michael-osterholm/568978932/#comments

For anyone that missed this article.

Thanx for sharing OldAuggie!

[OzJohnnie]

http://m.startribune.com/coronavirus-pandemic-what-s-normal-now-what-s-next-an-interview-with-michael-osterholm/568978932/#comments

For anyone that missed this article.

Good article.  I find it frustrating, though, that he like many others often cite how people are doing things completely wrong but provides no insight into what is right.  Take the masks, for instance, he complains that the military thinks it did great things when they donated 2 million but that's far short.  Well they gave all they could, right?  And then he complains that industry ramped up production of masks massively in January despite not being told to.  So...?  Are enough being manufactured?  I hear the complaining but I don't hear answers.

I'm happy for the complaint but without a new target this it's just useless noise.  How many masks do we need?  How many are available?  Now we have a gap to close let's get to it.  How man more factories to close the gap?

How many beds do we need?  How many are available?  Gap to close, let's get to it.  Can we build temporary beds?  Convert different wards of the hospital to critical care?  Relax the regulations on the number of beds a single nurse can monitor in critical care?

We need to "flatten the curve".  Fine.  What's the curve look like now?  What actions will get it to where we need to be?  What's the spread number we need to stay behind so this stays under control?  Ok, let's get to it.


Everyone will jump on board.  It's how we work.  But we need some guidance, some goals.  At the moment it's the health professionals saying A) it's horrible and B) we have no idea so C) we reserve the right to do anything we think.

It's too much like that Bill Murray line from Ghostbusters, "Trust us; we're scientists."  I do trust you.  But I'm not a moron.  Tell us what we're trying to accomplish.  If it turns out that we need to do more because our first thought wasn't enough, then fine.   Or do less, then fine.  But bring the public into the discussion.

[Mr.MIAC]

Friends,

My aim isn't to cause a panic. It's to make sure people are clear about the need to follow the protocols being issued. None of this is banter.

I work for the federal government as part of the national security community. My office tracks the spread of COVID-19 very closely, in part because we interact daily with Congress. Much of the information you might be receiving via the administration's press conferences is bluster. We are in a far more grave situation.

It's likely that more than 50% of the US population will end up contracting COVID-19 before a vaccine is developed (12-18 months). I honestly think we're talking 100K+ deaths, mostly those who are 60+ and suffer from chronic conditions. These are the figures being talked about inside government.

Please follow the protocols. Also, please start emotionally preparing for the catastrophic loss of life that is likely to come to your communities.

Best,

John

[OzJohnnie]

No, offense, John, but what needs to be done?  Give us some metrics.  Some goals.  You're all going to die, as well intentioned as it is, is useless.  Are we just supposed to sit here watching Netflix while we wait for the Grim Reaper to knock on our doors?

This article is the sort of information I feel is useful.  https://www.crainsdetroit.com/manufacturing/arsenal-health-gm-suppliers-preparing-manufacture-parts-200000-ventilators

It tells us that a) we will have up to 960,000 people who will need ventilators.  We currently only have 200k ventilators in the country.  GM is retooling car manufacturing lines, dropping all competitive issues and working with market place rivals, to create ventilators will make make 200k alone, doubling our capacity. They don't say how quickly they will be built but I can guess they aren't sitting around navel gazing as the article says production starts tomorrow.  But even if we have the high number of 960k needed ventilators, they won't need them all at the same time.

The article also mentions that Ford and Tesla are retooling their production lines as well to create ventilators, although it doesn't say how many they are making, but even if it approaches anything close to what GM is doing then the US will be overflowing with ventilators, likely enough to share with the others in the world.


So please don't take this the wrong way.  I, and I'm sure everyone else, understands it is serious.  No one here is too ignorant (not even the Tommies) to understand that.  But instead of just ratcheting up the doom with no hope to address it, let us know how key metrics are tracking.  At the moment we're being fed a diet of gloom with no indication of what must be done to correct it.  And anyone who offers even the slightest opinion that there is a way out of this is beaten repeatedly and told, "No, can only have gloom.  No proactivity allowed."  Not good enough.  Get your gov't colleagues to lift their game if you can.

[jamtod]

No, offense, John, but what needs to be done?  Give us some metrics.  Some goals.  You're all going to die, as well intentioned as it is, is useless.  Are we just supposed to sit here watching Netflix while we wait for the Grim Reaper to knock on our doors?

This article is the sort of information I feel is useful.  https://www.crainsdetroit.com/manufacturing/arsenal-health-gm-suppliers-preparing-manufacture-parts-200000-ventilators

It tells us that a) we will have up to 960,000 people who will need ventilators.  We currently only have 200k ventilators in the country.  GM is retooling car manufacturing lines, dropping all competitive issues and working with market place rivals, to create ventilators will make make 200k alone, doubling our capacity. They don't say how quickly they will be built but I can guess they aren't sitting around navel gazing as the article says production starts tomorrow.  But even if we have the high number of 960k needed ventilators, they won't need them all at the same time.

The article also mentions that Ford and Tesla are retooling their production lines as well to create ventilators, although it doesn't say how many they are making, but even if it approaches anything close to what GM is doing then the US will be overflowing with ventilators, likely enough to share with the others in the world.


So please don't take this the wrong way.  I, and I'm sure everyone else, understands it is serious.  No one here is too ignorant (not even the Tommies) to understand that.  But instead of just ratcheting up the doom with no hope to address it, let us know how key metrics are tracking.  At the moment we're being fed a diet of gloom with no indication of what must be done to correct it.  And anyone who offers even the slightest opinion that there is a way out of this is beaten repeatedly and told, "No, can only have gloom.  No proactivity allowed."  Not good enough.  Get your gov't colleagues to lift their game if you can.

Maybe I'm missing something, but you just gave several key examples where companies that are able to build ventilators were told what they needed to do and set to work. I'm not building any ventilators in my home office, so I'm doing what I've been told to do, which is avoid interaction with others as much as possible to help avoid the spread, because I don't know whether I am or am not an asymptomatic carrier. Beyond that, the modeling of what this could look like is varied, and based on limited data. So maybe your point is that we need better testing and data to see where this is actually spreading, and in that case, I'm fully on board and we missed big on that.

[OzJohnnie]

And I know Trump is a moron.  Two days ago he was a moron for saying that a drug, chloroquine, has promising results and is available for immediate use.  He's an idiot. It's not available for use.  Even the FDA guy said he's a moron as the press was happy to tell us.

Today we find out that every single COVID-19 patient being treated in New York is being treated with chloroquine, amongst other anti-virals that like chloroquine already have FDA approval.

"All of our patients get put on chloroquine, as well as on antiretrovirals. We're using Kaletra. Different places are using different antiretrovirals," says Liise-anne Pirofski, chief of infectious diseases at Albert Einstein College of Medicine and Montefiore. "Everybody gets that, unless they have some contraindication."

Like I said.  We're not morons.  We understand that this is novel.  That it's not been encountered before.  That we may not be able to address it with this attempts to apply existing treatments.  We're also not mushrooms.  We also can't be expected to sit in the dark hoping that this bug kills our neighbors but not us.

[OzJohnnie]

Maybe I'm missing something, but you just gave several key examples where companies that are able to build ventilators were told what they needed to do and set to work. I'm not building any ventilators in my home office, so I'm doing what I've been told to do, which is avoid interaction with others as much as possible to help avoid the spread, because I don't know whether I am or am not an asymptomatic carrier. Beyond that, the modeling of what this could look like is varied, and based on limited data. So maybe your point is that we need better testing and data to see where this is actually spreading, and in that case, I'm fully on board and we missed big on that.

The point is they weren't told.  They saw the problem and got started.  No one had to tell them what to do.  So again, be thankful for American ingenuity and tell us how the metrics are tracking.

Yesterday the US tested 44k people.  In a week's time the US will be testing 125k a day.  And it's hitting those record numbers as testing goes private.  If anything, this demonstrates that the novel nature of this bug is particularly challenging for the normal processes which are slow, meticulous and precise.  Relaxing the rules, not tightening them, will speed things up, no?  It certainly has with testing.

EDIT: That's 45k tested two days in a row.  Data collected from all state testing reports is here: https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/

South Korea, by the way, can test 15k a day and have tested 316k people.  The US has tested 227k to date.  It will pass South Korea in two days time.  So, again, the relevant question is at what pace to we need to test to stay in front of this?  Have we hit that rate?  That's the useful information rather than the obvious statement we need more tests.

(Nothing personal.  But we need guidance on where we are going from leadership, not lamentations on where we have been.)