FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[Mr.MIAC]

No, offense, John, but what needs to be done?  Give us some metrics.  Some goals.  You're all going to die, as well intentioned as it is, is useless.  Are we just supposed to sit here watching Netflix while we wait for the Grim Reaper to knock on our doors?

This article is the sort of information I feel is useful.  https://www.crainsdetroit.com/manufacturing/arsenal-health-gm-suppliers-preparing-manufacture-parts-200000-ventilators

It tells us that a) we will have up to 960,000 people who will need ventilators.  We currently only have 200k ventilators in the country.  GM is retooling car manufacturing lines, dropping all competitive issues and working with market place rivals, to create ventilators will make make 200k alone, doubling our capacity. They don't say how quickly they will be built but I can guess they aren't sitting around navel gazing as the article says production starts tomorrow.  But even if we have the high number of 960k needed ventilators, they won't need them all at the same time.

The article also mentions that Ford and Tesla are retooling their production lines as well to create ventilators, although it doesn't say how many they are making, but even if it approaches anything close to what GM is doing then the US will be overflowing with ventilators, likely enough to share with the others in the world.


So please don't take this the wrong way.  I, and I'm sure everyone else, understands it is serious.  No one here is too ignorant (not even the Tommies) to understand that.  But instead of just ratcheting up the doom with no hope to address it, let us know how key metrics are tracking.  At the moment we're being fed a diet of gloom with no indication of what must be done to correct it.  And anyone who offers even the slightest opinion that there is a way out of this is beaten repeatedly and told, "No, can only have gloom.  No proactivity allowed."  Not good enough.  Get your gov't colleagues to lift their game if you can.

At this point, I'm simply encouraging friends to follow the protocols. There are plenty of folks (including me in other fora) reporting on the steps that could/should be taken to manage the situation from an industrial and policy perspective. Much of this is in the classified environment right now, but I feel a duty to make sure people know in general terms the severity of this situation. You might be surprised by how large swaths of the population are responding to the calls for self-isolation. In short, they're being ignored.  There's hope. It's not all doom and gloom. This isn't a civilization-ending event. People just need to follow the protocols, plan for new reality that will last at least two years, and track developments over the coming weeks as we gain a better understanding of the extent of the problem and how it can be managed effectively.

[OzJohnnie]

Thanks, John. That’s certainly appreciated.  And if you can convince your colleagues to present information on progress then that would be appreciated as well.  It could also be quite effective in getting buy-in from the public to follow recommended measures more closely.  If we were told that we need to beat factor X to slow the spread enough but we’re currently doing factor x+1 then I bet you would see people get on board really quick.  Without context people think rules are arbitrary (and for good reason as they often are) and when the enforcement mechanism is warnings of dire consequences it’s greeted with cynicism (as the dire warnings are often used as over stated blunt instruments).

It’s not personal but people are far too familiar with the boy who cried wolf story. I understand that this time it’s for real.  To get people to believe you on a large scale you need to bring them along. At least I reckon your colleagues would do well to consider that message.

[Texas Ole]

Dallas County just received a shelter in place order for 2 weeks.  The problem is that Dallas County is relatively small when compared to DFW as a whole.  The order hasn't even take effect, and they are already talking about extending it.

In the famous words of the great Bluto, "Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell No!"

[jamtod]

Thanks, John. That's certainly appreciated.  And if you can convince your colleagues to present information on progress then that would be appreciated as well.  It could also be quite effective in getting buy-in from the public to follow recommended measures more closely.  If we were told that we need to beat factor X to slow the spread enough but we're currently doing factor x+1 then I bet you would see people get on board really quick.  Without context people think rules are arbitrary (and for good reason as they often are) and when the enforcement mechanism is warnings of dire consequences it's greeted with cynicism (as the dire warnings are often used as over stated blunt instruments).

It's not personal but people are far too familiar with the boy who cried wolf story. I understand that this time it's for real.  To get people to believe you on a large scale you need to bring them along. At least I reckon your colleagues would do well to consider that message.

I'm seeing where you are going with this now. +k

[OzJohnnie]

Thanks, John. That's certainly appreciated.  And if you can convince your colleagues to present information on progress then that would be appreciated as well.  It could also be quite effective in getting buy-in from the public to follow recommended measures more closely.  If we were told that we need to beat factor X to slow the spread enough but we're currently doing factor x+1 then I bet you would see people get on board really quick.  Without context people think rules are arbitrary (and for good reason as they often are) and when the enforcement mechanism is warnings of dire consequences it's greeted with cynicism (as the dire warnings are often used as over stated blunt instruments).

It's not personal but people are far too familiar with the boy who cried wolf story. I understand that this time it's for real.  To get people to believe you on a large scale you need to bring them along. At least I reckon your colleagues would do well to consider that message.

I'm seeing where you are going with this now. +k

No worries.  That's what all these armchair articles about the real impact of the disease are for.  In a vacuum of information, people are looking to fill it.  Not because they are evil or ignorant, but because they are concerned.  And authorities (and media) are essentially saying, "You're all going to die so lose your livelihood and house and shut up about it."  A response of "Shut up, I said" is unlikely to win anyone over.

Anyway, I'm glad to see you understand my point.

[faunch]

Friends,

My aim isn't to cause a panic. It's to make sure people are clear about the need to follow the protocols being issued. None of this is banter.

I work for the federal government as part of the national security community. My office tracks the spread of COVID-19 very closely, in part because we interact daily with Congress. Much of the information you might be receiving via the administration's press conferences is bluster. We are in a far more grave situation.

It's likely that more than 50% of the US population will end up contracting COVID-19 before a vaccine is developed (12-18 months). I honestly think we're talking 100K+ deaths, mostly those who are 60+ and suffer from chronic conditions. These are the figures being talked about inside government.

Please follow the protocols. Also, please start emotionally preparing for the catastrophic loss of life that is likely to come to your communities.

Best,

John

Ok...now I'm depressed.

[DuffMan]

Ok...now I'm depressed.

Tough?  Yeah.  A bit depressing?  Sure.  But we're going to get through this and learn some important lessons.

[faunch]

Ok...now I'm depressed.

Tough?  Yeah.  A bit depressing?  Sure.  But we're going to get through this and learn some important lessons.

You mean like healthcare policy and being better prepared for this kind of thing is a national security issue?

[OldAuggie]

Thanks, John. That's certainly appreciated.  And if you can convince your colleagues to present information on progress then that would be appreciated as well.  It could also be quite effective in getting buy-in from the public to follow recommended measures more closely.  If we were told that we need to beat factor X to slow the spread enough but we're currently doing factor x+1 then I bet you would see people get on board really quick.  Without context people think rules are arbitrary (and for good reason as they often are) and when the enforcement mechanism is warnings of dire consequences it's greeted with cynicism (as the dire warnings are often used as over stated blunt instruments).

It's not personal but people are far too familiar with the boy who cried wolf story. I understand that this time it's for real.  To get people to believe you on a large scale you need to bring them along. At least I reckon your colleagues would do well to consider that message.

I'm seeing where you are going with this now. +k

No worries.  That's what all these armchair articles about the real impact of the disease are for.  In a vacuum of information, people are looking to fill it.  Not because they are evil or ignorant, but because they are concerned.  And authorities (and media) are essentially saying, "You're all going to die so lose your livelihood and house and shut up about it."  A response of "Shut up, I said" is unlikely to win anyone over.

Anyway, I'm glad to see you understand my point.

Sounds like the administration is considering a different approach this morning. They don't want the cure to be worse than the problem itself.

Kudos to Oz who has been saying this all along.

[SagatagSam]

Things in good old South Dakota are not quite as bad as the rest of the country (yet). Probably helps the the entire state population is around 800,000.  I too still have to trek to work each day as i am considered essential.  I do have to say that running a prison during an event like this brings up new and interesting problems.  Where to set up a quarantine area for infected inmates,  which officers will be chosen to watch these inmates (basically quarantined with them while wearing PPE).  will they get hazard pay for this task. Dealing with upset family members of inmates threatening lawsuits and even bodily harm because we shut down all in person visits,  the list goes on and on.  I am ready to get back to normal,  the only bright spot for us is that our industry is recession proof.  In fact we thrive during a recession. Everyone stay safe

Are you at the Men's Pen in Sioux Falls? The Women's Pen in Pierre? or Springfield?

[miac952]

An article that might be of interest to Oz. A well crafted counterpoint to the measures being put in place, written by a well regarded physician and epidemiologist https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Governor Cuomo surmised today whether we could at some point isolate and quarantine the vulnerable and bring measured productivity back at some point. From NY's standpoint he said they are still a long way away from that but they need to be planning for it at some point if it was recommended by medical experts.

[jamtod]

An article that might be of interest to Oz. A well crafted counterpoint to the measures being put in place, written by a well regarded physician and epidemiologist https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Governor Cuomo surmised today whether we could at some point isolate and quarantine the vulnerable and bring measured productivity back at some point. From NY's standpoint he said they are still a long way away from that but they need to be planning for it at some point if it was recommended by medical experts.

I had seen this floating around last week as well. While his main points (we lack data, we lack proper testing) are accepted across the board, his conclusions are less so. This was an interesting rebuttal to Ioannidis: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/we-know-enough-now-to-act-decisively-against-covid-19/

[OzJohnnie]

An article that might be of interest to Oz. A well crafted counterpoint to the measures being put in place, written by a well regarded physician and epidemiologist https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Governor Cuomo surmised today whether we could at some point isolate and quarantine the vulnerable and bring measured productivity back at some point. From NY's standpoint he said they are still a long way away from that but they need to be planning for it at some point if it was recommended by medical experts.

I had seen this floating around last week as well. While his main points (we lack data, we lack proper testing) are accepted across the board, his conclusions are less so. This was an interesting rebuttal to Ioannidis: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/we-know-enough-now-to-act-decisively-against-covid-19/

Good article.  It's certainly the prevailing viewpoint, and no one really disagrees, that social distancing, etc, is needed.  I think the point that medical professionals must consider is that for the vast majority of the population the existential threat to them and their families of financial ruin and destitution is far more serious than the bug.

This New York Times piece discusses alternate approaches to locking everything down quite well: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html

The Netherlands is taking an alternative approach, herd immunity.  Essentially wrapping the vulnerable in bubblewrap and let it burn through the rest of the population.  They are taking social distancing measures, obviously, but not locking the whole country down in an economic disaster.  So there will be a test case for alternatives.  (The UK was following this approach as well until the article predicted complete doom and the UK changed course, as did the US.  The Netherlands have stuck fat, however, so we'll be able to see how it works.)

https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/03/group-immunity-not-main-aim-of-dutch-anti-corona-measures-says-health-chief/

[OzJohnnie]

An article that might be of interest to Oz. A well crafted counterpoint to the measures being put in place, written by a well regarded physician and epidemiologist https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Governor Cuomo surmised today whether we could at some point isolate and quarantine the vulnerable and bring measured productivity back at some point. From NY's standpoint he said they are still a long way away from that but they need to be planning for it at some point if it was recommended by medical experts.

Yeah, I had read that article when it first came out and found it intriguing.  I read another article somewhere else, a medical journal I think but can't remember for sure and couldn't find it again - I bookmark most so will post it if I find it, that claimed the South Korean experience complimented the Diamond Princess experience.

Anyways, my brother-in-law is into CV treatment research and I was was talking to him on the weekend and asked if this disease was as bad as the Black Plague.  He said there's no way to tell.  I told him it had better be because what he and his colleagues are doing to us is as bad as the Black Plague so this had better be worse.

[OzJohnnie]

This study says that if 80% of people wear masks in public then influenza outbreaks are essentially stopped.  It's a common practice is almost all of Asia now days for people to be walking around with masks on every day regardless.  Personally, I don't like it.  I hate walking the streets and seeing everyone in a mask.  It makes me feel like I'm walking in bug central.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30229968/

I prefer the old "If you're sick then stay home.  Also, cover your mouth when you cough, cretin."