FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

Pat Coleman · May 17, 2020, 01:11:18 PM

Quote from: formerd3db on May 17, 2020, 12:51:43 PM
One last question...Pat, do you think the NCAA would ever mandate no one could play this season at all (I'm referring to DIII and DII only)?

Well, they did just do it, so they definitely could do it again. If by "this season" you mean the fall of 2020, I guess I would put the odds at slightly above 50%. If you mean all of 2020-2021, I guess I'd consider that chance to be a good deal lower than 50%, but very possible.

I don't think they would make a decision solely for D-III and D-II -- just like we saw in March, I would suspect that would make one decision for everything. They canceled all sorts of events, even ones in D-II and D-III where student-athletes were already in place, even ones where a multi-day competition had already started.

The Division II Management Council is making recommendations about changing the minimum and maximum number of contests permissible in each sport. One D-II conference has already said it will not participate in athletics in the fall, since the Cal State higher ed system said it will not have students on any of its campuses for the fall semester.

formerd3db · May 17, 2020, 01:31:11 PM

Thanks, Pat. I was just referring to football for this fall, 2020. Anyway, your reasoning and explanation do make sense in view of how they handled the bb in progress championship post-season. Yes, I had seen the CCAA decision, too. It will be interesting to see what those other Cal system schools decide to do.

OzJohnnie · May 17, 2020, 08:31:07 PM

Quote from: hazzben on May 17, 2020, 09:49:59 AM
Scenario 3: The regular season is played, but due to COVID concerns the post-season is canceled. It's also a way for the NCAA to save money (though they don't admit this is part of their rationale). Strangely, the non-NCAA run FBS still finds a way to have the CFP and there are still bowl games. Assumption: I think this is actually maybe the most likely scenario. At the end of the day, the NCAA needs to save some serious money, and one easy way to do that, with the cover of safety concerns, is to simply cancel all fall post-season events and associated costs.

I think this is almost certainly what will happen. Conference schedules with no post-season play. There's no money for it and I don't think the NCAA needs particular cover. They can just say, "There's no money. Can't happen."

There's nothing stopping conference play, however. If STO decides not to play this year (they are the only MIAC school to come out with a position of some at home and some in class teaching, or at least intimating such in a tired video from the president) then it's a seven game schedule. Or a five game schedule and everyone plays twice. Or perhaps a jerry rigged schedule with some MWC and some MIAC schools playing each other in an informal season and some altered rules for a conference championship. Or no championship at all, just the season. But wouldn't it be a perverse situation if MAC, who has declared they will be holding in-person teaching, actually have a sporting season and other more sports-oriented MIAC schools do not?

Anyways, fingers crossed that the Johnnies come out and say game on. The J coaches and new recruits are still tweeting about coming to the school and joining the program so I reckon in the background it's all systems go. I hope it stays that way.

OzJohnnie · May 17, 2020, 08:56:13 PM

For those interested, Bethel recently sent an email (also linked to on the Chronicle of Higher Ed list of school intentions I published earlier) which provides a very good outline of the issues they face from the economic shutdown and how they will approach the fall semester.

https://www.bethel.edu/covid-19/images/5-11-20-covid-19-update.pdf

Some interesting tidbits which may generally reflect the situation at the other MIAC schools (or DIII in general):

* Freshman enrolments trail last year by about 15% but retention looks good.
* Total operating loss from spring and fall '20 semesters (FY20) looks like it will be about $6-$7 million, made up of refunds from the spring semester and lost tuition revenue in the fall. Without looking up the financial reports I don't know what percentage of the budget that represents.
* They have to make a number of staff compensation cuts and micro-manage every penny which is spent in the school, including stopping almost every spending project which is underway except for a few exceptions.
* They'll use the endowment as much as allowed to narrow the budget gap.

The letter doesn't say whether these measures will close the gap or not but since it doesn't warn that additional measures may be needed it makes me think that they are hopeful the shortfall can be managed with the steps announced. As there is no mention of cutting sports budgets I take that as a good sign they plan to have the students competing as normal.

It's certainly a fine balance when considering sports for the MIAC schools (and so many DIII schools at that) as they have made the sports experience a key (sometimes almost primary) aspect of their institutional value proposition. Cutting sports will put further pressure on enrolments and retention and with enrolments running 15% behind last year there isn't a lot of give in terms of additional tuition a school can afford to forego and still remain viable financially.

I think a lot of schools are desperately (if quietly) hoping that the zeitgeist over summer turns hard toward "back to normal" otherwise many will find themselves in untenable positions.

Pat Coleman · May 17, 2020, 09:54:44 PM

Quote from: OzJohnnie on May 17, 2020, 08:56:13 PM
I think a lot of schools are desperately (if quietly) hoping that the zeitgeist over summer turns hard toward "back to normal" otherwise many will find themselves in untenable positions.

I would agree. I'm quite surprised we haven't had more closings than the ones already announced.

jamtod · May 17, 2020, 10:53:24 PM

Wasn't there reports of Bethel having some financial challenges and cutting faculty and staff before this all went down too?

Update: yep, found it from December: https://www.google.com/amp/s/minnesota.cbslocal.com/2019/12/11/citing-declining-student-enrollment-bethel-university-to-cut-staff-faculty/amp/

faunch · May 17, 2020, 10:56:50 PM

Quote from: OzJohnnie on May 17, 2020, 08:31:07 PM
Quote from: hazzben on May 17, 2020, 09:49:59 AM
Scenario 3: The regular season is played, but due to COVID concerns the post-season is canceled. It's also a way for the NCAA to save money (though they don't admit this is part of their rationale). Strangely, the non-NCAA run FBS still finds a way to have the CFP and there are still bowl games. Assumption: I think this is actually maybe the most likely scenario. At the end of the day, the NCAA needs to save some serious money, and one easy way to do that, with the cover of safety concerns, is to simply cancel all fall post-season events and associated costs.

I think this is almost certainly what will happen. Conference schedules with no post-season play. There's no money for it and I don't think the NCAA needs particular cover. They can just say, "There's no money. Can't happen."

There's nothing stopping conference play, however. If STO decides not to play this year (they are the only MIAC school to come out with a position of some at home and some in class teaching, or at least intimating such in a tired video from the president) then it's a seven game schedule. Or a five game schedule and everyone plays twice. Or perhaps a jerry rigged schedule with some MWC and some MIAC schools playing each other in an informal season and some altered rules for a conference championship. Or no championship at all, just the season. But wouldn't it be a perverse situation if MAC, who has declared they will be holding in-person teaching, actually have a sporting season and other more sports-oriented MIAC schools do not?

Anyways, fingers crossed that the Johnnies come out and say game on. The J coaches and new recruits are still tweeting about coming to the school and joining the program so I reckon in the background it's all systems go. I hope it stays that way.

faunch · May 17, 2020, 11:21:19 PM

Seriously...what if SJU had actually recruited between 2003 and 2013...like really recruited?
John's winning percentage was 77%...Gary is at 83%.
This might be construed as sacrilage but imagine if Gary and Dummo had taken over in about 2005?
I always thought that John and Jim missed out on a massive opportunity after the National Championship in 2003. The iron was hot but they just believe kids would come to SJU .

OzJohnnie · May 18, 2020, 02:13:12 AM

Quote from: jamtod on May 17, 2020, 10:53:24 PM
Wasn't there reports of Bethel having some financial challenges and cutting faculty and staff before this all went down too?

Update: yep, found it from December: https://www.google.com/amp/s/minnesota.cbslocal.com/2019/12/11/citing-declining-student-enrollment-bethel-university-to-cut-staff-faculty/amp/

In the letter noted below they say they aren't cutting salary or staff, instead making up the budget shortfall by reducing retirement benefits and stopping almost all capital works. Perhaps they already reduced headcount and don't want to reduce further.

OzJohnnie · May 18, 2020, 02:16:54 AM

Quote from: Pat Coleman on May 17, 2020, 09:54:44 PM
Quote from: OzJohnnie on May 17, 2020, 08:56:13 PM
I think a lot of schools are desperately (if quietly) hoping that the zeitgeist over summer turns hard toward "back to normal" otherwise many will find themselves in untenable positions.

I would agree. I'm quite surprised we haven't had more closings than the ones already announced.

Maybe it's a case of hanging on until the last possible moment. If everyone expects schools to be closing and you can hang on a little longer then maybe you can pick up a few transfers and freshman and get through the squeeze. If you can just hold out a couple extra weeks. So maybe it's a matter of keep the smiles on and pray that either things turn around quickly or you benefit from other's failures.

sjusection105 · May 18, 2020, 05:41:18 AM

Quote from: faunch on May 17, 2020, 11:21:19 PM
This might be construed as sacrilage but imagine if Gary and Dummo had taken over in about 2005?

Dummo would have been a player/coach at that point.....

faunch · May 18, 2020, 09:16:02 AM

Quote from: sjusection105 on May 18, 2020, 05:41:18 AM
Quote from: faunch on May 17, 2020, 11:21:19 PM
This might be construed as sacrilage but imagine if Gary and Dummo had taken over in about 2005?
Dummo would have been a player/coach at that point.....

When did he graduate?

sjusection105 · May 18, 2020, 09:26:13 AM

Quote from: faunch on May 18, 2020, 09:16:02 AM
Quote from: sjusection105 on May 18, 2020, 05:41:18 AM
Quote from: faunch on May 17, 2020, 11:21:19 PM
This might be construed as sacrilage but imagine if Gary and Dummo had taken over in about 2005?
Dummo would have been a player/coach at that point.....
When did he graduate?

He was a Soph on the 2003 Championship team, so I would say spring 2006. Duffman could confirm that my aging brain is correct.......

Pat Coleman · May 18, 2020, 10:07:23 AM

Quote from: OzJohnnie on May 18, 2020, 02:16:54 AM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on May 17, 2020, 09:54:44 PM
Quote from: OzJohnnie on May 17, 2020, 08:56:13 PM
I think a lot of schools are desperately (if quietly) hoping that the zeitgeist over summer turns hard toward "back to normal" otherwise many will find themselves in untenable positions.

I would agree. I'm quite surprised we haven't had more closings than the ones already announced.

Maybe it's a case of hanging on until the last possible moment. If everyone expects schools to be closing and you can hang on a little longer then maybe you can pick up a few transfers and freshman and get through the squeeze. If you can just hold out a couple extra weeks. So maybe it's a matter of keep the smiles on and pray that either things turn around quickly or you benefit from other's failures.

I can definitely see that. For example, some of the schools that offered quick and easy transfer to MacMurray students are ones that were likely on shaky ground as it is.

If you managed to get 40 of MacMurray's 400 or so underclassmen, you could make a lot of ends meet.

SagatagSam · May 18, 2020, 11:10:00 AM

Quote from: faunch on May 17, 2020, 10:56:50 PM
BTW...whatever happened to that Tommie supporter that posted all of their "top notch commits?"

No time. Must have gotten invited to a D1 ZOOM cocktail party....