FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[hazzben]

Assuming that BU has the number 2 ranking in the Region behind UW La Crosse, and UW La Crosse is picked first for a Pool C bid, the Royals are going to be at the table for the final 4 rounds. In the D3 mock picking (and they've proven to be pretty close in the past), I still like Bethel's chances against either Johns Hopkins or Ithaca in the final round. So, fingers crossed.

If, and we all know that's a big if, BU gets in, I think it helps the brackets and especially the Johnnies chances of being a number one seed, because it puts another team within 600 miles of UW Whitewater and North Central. Which in turn frees up a team between the Warhawks', North Central's and Mount Union's brackets. Doing this almost assures that the Johnnies would be seeing either or both Linfield and UMHB, but both of them would have to travel to Collegeville, which to me seems fitting. But what do I know?

"Sometimes even a blind dog gets the bone." Looks like I got it right concerning the road the Johnnies have to take to get out of their quadrant.

So, looking at the final regional rankings, and using Greg Thomas' logic that if both Ithaca and Bethel were left in the final round that he would pick Ithaca, does that mean Bethel was picked ahead of Johns Hopkins? How much influence do you suspect the SOS numbers played in the selection order? I can see UW LaCrosse being first off the board, and Bethel being picked as high as second with an SOS only .003 behind them. Anyone with a better handle on the situation want to take a gander at how the five at large were picked in what order?

Very well done Art ... now do the same thing for why Bethel will win Saturday. You're on a hot streak, double down!! 

[DuffMan]

A final thought on the SJU/Bethel game--though winning the game locked up a #1 seed for the Johnnies, I think the even bigger value in that win is the confidence that it will send the Johnnies into the playoffs with.  They've proven that they can win big games with Backes at QB, and they've proven that they're never out of a game.  Though I would have really liked more breathing room in that game (like perhaps leading for more than one second  ), I think the Johnnies will benefit from it in the long run.

[retagent]

I recommend taking a look at the Jags/Colts "highlights." The Jags went for 2 after their TD. Bartch somewhat led Dan Arnold into the end zone. Then they had a DIII chest bump moment.

[SagatagSam]

A final thought on the SJU/Bethel game--though winning the game locked up a #1 seed for the Johnnies, I think the even bigger value in that win is the confidence that it will send the Johnnies into the playoffs with.  They've proven that they can win big games with Backes at QB, and they've proven that they're never out of a game.  Though I would have really liked more breathing room in that game (like perhaps leading for more than one second  ), I think the Johnnies will benefit from it in the long run.

Agree. My concerns heading into the playoffs were 1) it has been several months since the Johnnies got pushed to the limit, and 2) whether Backes could lead when the opponent comes out strong and has the momentum early. Safe to say I don't have those concerns anymore. I think Gary alluded to Backes being very smart and changing the play and taking what the defense gave him--especially on the final drive.

[MUC57]

To all my Johnnie friends (you know who you are)

Congrats on beating a tough Bethel team. And congrats on getting a number one seed. Well deserved!
You've got some top teams in your bracket but you can play with and beat any of them.
I wish you the very best in the playoffs, Those who know me, e.g., 57Johnnie, know that if I hadn't gone to Mount Union, I would have loved going to school in Collegeville. Great school. Go Johnnies! 

[wildcat11]

How would St John's fare against Linfield?

Easy win.  Phone it in. 

Told Gig Harbor Cat that he got a "phone it in" on the MIAC board.  Gave him a good chuckle.  Thanks Duff!

[57Johnnie]

To all my Johnnie friends (you know who you are)

Congrats on beating a tough Bethel team. And congrats on getting a number one seed. Well deserved!
You've got some top teams in your bracket but you can play with and beat any of them.
I wish you the very best in the playoffs, Those who know me, e.g., 57Johnnie, know that if I hadn't gone to Mount Union, I would have loved going to school in Collegeville. Great school. Go Johnnies! 

Hey MW57:
The way I see it and the way the brackets are constructed the Johnnies will be meeting the Raiders at the Stagg. 

[sjujohnnie]

It's been 18 years (very sad to say that) since St John's has made the Stagg AND 18 years since St John's faced Mount Union. Short of winning it all, I can't think of anything I'd rather see than St John's making it to the title game!

[SagatagSam]

FINAL STANDINGS


My spreads were pretty off this week, St. Olaf over Augsburg was the first victory by a double-digit underdog in a while.  Thanks to everyone for following along and picking!  Best of luck to the Johnnies and hopefully Royals in the playoffs, that was a tremendous championship game.

The HALL OF CHAMPIONS:
2021: AO
2019: AO
2018: FCGrizzliesGrad
2017: Tom Thumb
2016: Finsleft
2015: ChicagoTommie
2014: wm4
2013: FCGrizzliesGrad
2012: miacmaniac
2011: Finsleft
2010: Finsleft
2009: sju56321
2008: AO
2007: AO
2006: Piperinsider
2005: Frankrickard/Repete

Here are this week's updated numbers Against the Spread. Bethel, Gustavus, and Carleton share the MIAC ATS crown.

Bethel   6-4
Gustavus   6-4
Carleton   6-4
Macalester   5-5
St. John's   5-5
St. Scholastica   5-4
Hamline   4-6
St. Olaf   4-6
Concordia   3-7
Augsburg   3-7

I think AO was overly critical on being off on the spreads this week. Rewind a couple weeks and we had multiple games decided within 0.5 points of the spread. Looking at the season as a whole, having every team near .500 is where we want to be. AO has 8 of the 10 teams within one game of .500. That's pretty daggone good if you ask me.

Thanks for putting the Pick 'Ems on, AO!

P.S. AO, what do you use to share the scoring table as an Excel Spreadsheet? I think I'll try to do that next year for the ATS numbers.

[jakeMN91]

The smell test says SJU is a heavy favorite on Saturday, but I don't know much about Lake Forest. There are no common opponents between SJU and LF, but there are some common opponents of opponents.

LF beat Wisconsin Lutheran 27-10. Martin Luther beat Wisconsin Lutheran 42-28. SJU beat Martin Luther 55-7.

LF beat Monmouth 24-10.
Wartburg beat Monmouth 44-3.
Gustavus beat Wartburg 24-18.

Lake Forest beat Ripon 42-7.
Ripon beat Augsburg 46-38.
SJU beat Augsburg 50-0.

By using shaky assumptions from these results, maybe we can expect LF to play at a level somewhere between GAC and AUG?

On the statistics side, I saw that LF defense has given up only 689 rush yards in 10 games compared to 1,572 pass yards allowed (SJU has given up 908 rush and 1,604 pass, albeit against tougher competition).

Offensive yardage for LF is pretty evenly split at 1,916 rush and 2,013 pass.

Any one else have any insight? When was the last time SJU played a team from the MWC?

[DuffMan]

When was the last time SJU played a team from the MWC?

It's been a while, but back in the day, the MWC was a fairly common playoff matchup.

2005 - Monmouth (62-3 SJU)
2003 - St. Norbert* (38-13 SJU)
2001 - St. Norbert (27-20 SJU)

*No longer in the MWC.

[DuffMan]

Backes got Pat's "Game Ball" in the D3Football.com ATN Podcast. Excellent!

[RoyalsFan]

Still haven't heard any official updates on the injuries to SJU's Trost and Bethel's Roste. SJU can get probably get by without Trost for a week or two, but I doubt Bethel can advance without Roste. Anyone hear any current updates on those two?

[WW]

The smell test says SJU is a heavy favorite on Saturday, but I don't know much about Lake Forest. There are no common opponents between SJU and LF, but there are some common opponents of opponents.

LF beat Wisconsin Lutheran 27-10. Martin Luther beat Wisconsin Lutheran 42-28. SJU beat Martin Luther 55-7.

LF beat Monmouth 24-10.
Wartburg beat Monmouth 44-3.
Gustavus beat Wartburg 24-18.

Lake Forest beat Ripon 42-7.
Ripon beat Augsburg 46-38.
SJU beat Augsburg 50-0.

By using shaky assumptions from these results, maybe we can expect LF to play at a level somewhere between GAC and AUG?

On the statistics side, I saw that LF defense has given up only 689 rush yards in 10 games compared to 1,572 pass yards allowed (SJU has given up 908 rush and 1,604 pass, albeit against tougher competition).

Offensive yardage for LF is pretty evenly split at 1,916 rush and 2,013 pass.

Any one else have any insight? When was the last time SJU played a team from the MWC?

Smell test seems about right. They're a soft 10-0. The only other relevant result is that they soundly beat Chicago (28-6) which beat WUSTL (31-21). WUSTL is 7-3 and regionally ranked, however dubious the mechanisms of their manipulated ranking may be. Despite LF's weak SOS (.481), I can't imagine the Foresters are happy about being sent to SJU.

[OzJohnnie]

Foresters?  To the land of Paul Bunyan?  They should be overjoyed!  Come see Bunyan, his mighty axe that is able to fell giant pines in one swing and Babe the Blue Ox. Foresters!  Come joyfully to your spiritual home!